Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Motherwell 2–3 Hibernian

Sunday 8 January 2023, 13:30 · Fir Park · Round 21 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee David Munro · Attendance 5,825

Motherwell McKinstry 59', Tierney 90+1'

Hibernian Nisbet 16', 52', 74'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

MotherwellHibernian
Goals23
xG1.641.73
Expected Points1.261.45

Motherwell 32%Draw 29%Hibernian 38%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Final score 2–3, 4%.

Hibernian goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+6%6%2%2%5%1%2%4%6%5%2%2%2%14%12%11%12%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTMcKinstry on for Shields, 46'Johnston on for McGinn and Tierney on for Slattery, 82'Henderson on for Cadden, 31'Cabraja on for Magennis and Hanlon on for Youan, 73'Kenneh on for McGeady and Melkersen on for Nisbet, 87'McKinstry 59'Tierney 90+1'Nisbet 16'Nisbet 52'Nisbet 74'Hibernian 1.73Motherwell 1.6400.511.520153045607590HTMcKinstry on for Shields, 46'Johnston on for McGinn and Tierney on for Slattery, 82'Henderson on for Cadden, 31'Cabraja on for Magennis and Hanlon on for Youan, 73'Kenneh on for McGeady and Melkersen on for Nisbet, 87'McKinstry 59'Tierney 90+1'Nisbet 16'Nisbet 52'Nisbet 74'1.731.64MotherwellHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

MotherwellHibernian

1.64 +0.32xG1.73 +0.50
0.84 −0.32xG on target1.39 +0.36
13 +1Shots10 −7
3 −0.4Shots on target4 −0.9
1 −0.8Big chances2 +0.6
26 +9Touches in the opposition box16 −9
53% +4Possession47% −10
364 +5Passes334 −77
68% −1Pass accuracy70% −7
64% +14Field tilt36% −27
45 +11Final-third entries26 −22
16 +7.4Box entries6 −7.9
12.0 −1Passes per defensive action12.5 +1
5 −0.4Corners2 −4.5
32 +17Tackles8 −8
6 −4.3Interceptions12 +4.2
12 −5Clearances27 +9
1 −1.6Saves1 −0.9
12 −2Fouls9 −4
0 −1.7Offsides2 +0.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Motherwell

Johansen 69', 0.21 xGJohansen 68', 0.20 xGJohansen 27', 0.14 xGLamie 28', 0.14 xGLamie 28', 0.11 xGMcGinn 42', 0.09 xGSpittal 38', 0.08 xGSpittal 15', 0.07 xGMcKinstry 65', 0.05 xGSlattery 27', 0.04 xGSlattery 66', 0.02 xGMcKinstry 59', 0.39 xG, goalTierney 90+1', 0.10 xG, goal25%0.41 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.41 xG, 0 goals63%1.03 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 1.03 xG, 2 goals3%0.05 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals8%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals1%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Nisbet 64', 0.28 xGPorteous 23', 0.17 xGMcGeady 26', 0.05 xGMagennis 12', 0.04 xGNisbet 50', 0.04 xGPorteous 85', 0.04 xGYouan 7', 0.02 xGNisbet 52', 0.87 xG, goalNisbet 16', 0.13 xG, goalNisbet 74', 0.09 xG, goal60%1.04 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 1.04 xG, 1 goal31%0.54 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.54 xG, 2 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals6%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals2%0.04 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

MotherwellHibernian

0.80 7 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.65 7 shots, 2 goals
0.84 6 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces1.08 3 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
16 min (17%) · Motherwell 0.07, Hibernian 0.20 xG
Hibernian ahead
76 min (83%) · Motherwell 1.57, Hibernian 1.53 xG

Line-ups

11615424182782997KellyMcGinnJohansenLamiePenneyCorneliusGossSlatteryShieldsvan VeenSpittalYellow cardYellow card82'82'46'Motherwell 4-3-3Steven Hammell1123351671132231546MarshallCaddenBushiriPorteousStevensonMagennisNewellCampbellYouanNisbetMcGeadyYellow cardGoalGoalGoal31'73'73'87'87'Hibernian 4-3-3Lee Johnson

Motherwell substitutes

  • 46' McKinstry for Shields · goal 59'
  • 82' Johnston for McGinn
  • 82' Tierney for Slattery · goal 90+1'

Hibernian substitutes

  • 31' Henderson for Cadden
  • 73' Cabraja for Magennis
  • 73' Hanlon for Youan
  • 87' Kenneh for McGeady
  • 87' Melkersen for Nisbet

Players

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KellyGK900.000.0000.0540
McGinnRB820.090.0200.0897
Johansen CB9010.550.0710.10210
LamieCB900.250.0100.0553
PenneyLB900.000.0800.1277
CorneliusCM900.000.0600.1063
GossCM900.000.2410.2495
Slattery CM820.050.0510.0953
ShieldsRW460.000.0610.0711
van VeenST900.000.3830.0710
SpittalLW900.160.393−0.0637
McKinstryFW4410.440.0000.0633
JohnstonDF80.000.0000.0310
TierneyMF810.100.0000.0001

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarshallGK900.000.0000.0340
CaddenRB310.000.0100.0440
BushiriCB900.000.0000.0238
PorteousCB900.220.0100.16513
StevensonLB900.000.0810.1035
MagennisCM730.040.011−0.0215
Newell CM900.000.1510.0466
CampbellCM9010.000.0510.0868
YouanRW7310.020.6320.2141
NisbetST8731.400.0200.1520
McGeadyLW8710.050.1530.1761
HendersonMF590.000.0000.0611
CabrajaDF170.000.0000.0000
HanlonDF170.000.0000.0003
KennehMF30.000.000––0
MelkersenFW30.000.000−0.0200

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Motherwell

McGinn and van Veen: 3 passesJohansen and Lamie: 3 passesGoss and Shields: 3 passesCornelius and van Veen: 3 passesLamie and Goss: 4 passesPenney and Slattery: 4 passesPenney and Cornelius: 4 passesMcGinn and Shields: 5 passesMcGinn and Spittal: 5 passesGoss and Spittal: 5 passesCornelius and Spittal: 5 passesLamie and Slattery: 7 passesPenney and Spittal: 7 passesLamie and Penney: 8 passesSlattery and Spittal: 8 passesGoss and Slattery: 9 passesKelly and Lamie: 10 passesMcGinn and Goss: 15 passesMcGinn and Cornelius: 17 passesKelly: 10 completed passesMcGinn: 30 completed passesJohansen: 4 completed passesLamie: 21 completed passesPenney: 14 completed passesGoss: 21 completed passesSlattery: 16 completed passesCornelius: 15 completed passesShields: 3 completed passesvan Veen: 6 completed passesSpittal: 17 completed passes11615424278182997KellyMcGinnJohansenLamiePenneyGossSlatteryCorneliusShieldsvan VeenSpittalStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hibernian

Cadden and Bushiri: 3 passesCadden and Newell: 3 passesBushiri and Newell: 3 passesStevenson and McGeady: 3 passesNewell and Youan: 3 passesNewell and McGeady: 3 passesCampbell and Youan: 3 passesStevenson and Campbell: 5 passesMagennis and Youan: 5 passesCadden and Magennis: 6 passesPorteous and Newell: 6 passesBushiri and Porteous: 7 passesStevenson and Newell: 7 passesPorteous and Stevenson: 8 passesCadden and Youan: 10 passesMarshall: 4 completed passesCadden: 14 completed passesBushiri: 10 completed passesPorteous: 14 completed passesStevenson: 14 completed passesNewell: 18 completed passesMagennis: 8 completed passesCampbell: 5 completed passesYouan: 10 completed passesNisbet: 2 completed passesMcGeady: 5 completed passes1123351611732231546MarshallCaddenBushiriPorteousStevensonNewellMagennisCampbellYouanNisbetMcGeadyStarters until 31' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Motherwell

FromToPasses
McGinnCornelius12
CorneliusMcGinn11
McGinnGoss10
LamieKelly9
LamiePenney8

Hibernian

FromToPasses
StevensonPorteous9
PorteousStevenson8
YouanMagennis8
NewellPorteous7
PorteousMcGeady7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Motherwell

4−1.38+2.66−0.89+3.710+4.04−2.23−2.77−0.26−1.55−1.47+1.330.07+1.28+1.57+1.94−0.21−2.510+6.54−1.51−2.02+0.60−0.920.02−1.22+0.90−0.52+1.20−0.51−0.44−8.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 19 matches

Hibernian

8+4.05−0.820+9.65−2.55−1.85−0.39+3.24−0.19+3.57−0.36+0.76+0.80−2.76+0.510+2.42−1.57+3.00−2.84−0.72−2.60−2.41−1.00−0.83+1.01−1.510.00−0.80−1.10−0.81+0.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 20 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Motherwell

0.010.010.010.120.010.010.010.030.030.020.020.060.050.020.060.030.040.010.040.01−0.01−0.05−0.130.150.250.21LessMore

Hibernian

0.020.010.020.010.010.010.030.020.010.030.030.040.020.01−0.020.030.050.020.010.070.140.070.190.22LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.22AttackMotherwell1.06 → 1.06Hibernian1.12 → 1.14Defence (lower is better)Motherwell1.34 → 1.36Hibernian1.21 → 1.21

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Motherwell
Top six21%11%−10
11th10%14%+4
Bottom3%6%+3
Hibernian
Top six43%59%+16
11th3%1%−2
Dundee United
11th24%22%−2
Bottom11%11%0

From the forecast before the match (8 January 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

MotherwellHibernian
Expected goals1.261.10
Win39%32%
Expected Points1.471.24
Clean sheet33%28%

Motherwell 39%Draw 29%Hibernian 32%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 48%.

Hibernian goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+10%6%2%7%3%7%8%5%2%3%3%2%1%1%10%11%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 8 January 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowMotherwell winDrawHibernian win
Motherwell
Top six21%30%19%11%
11th10%6%11%14%
Bottom3%2%4%6%
Hibernian
Top six43%31%43%59%
11th3%5%3%1%
Dundee United
11th24%26%23%22%
Bottom11%12%11%11%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Motherwell

  1. D1–12 JanLivingston (A)xG 1.82–2.40
  2. L0–328 DecRangers (A)xG 0.41–2.55
  3. D2–223 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 1.33–0.34
  4. D1–112 NovSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.93–1.38
  5. L1–29 NovCeltic (H)xG 0.47–1.43
  6. L2–36 NovHearts (A)xG 2.25–2.61

Hibernian

  1. L0–32 JanHearts (A)xG 1.19–1.76
  2. L0–428 DecCeltic (H)xG 0.55–2.61
  3. W4–024 DecLivingston (H)xG 2.06–2.06
  4. L2–315 DecRangers (A)xG 0.62–2.31
  5. L0–112 NovKilmarnock (A)xG 0.85–0.96
  6. L0–28 NovRoss County (H)xG 1.14–0.70

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

MotherwellHibernian
Position10th8th
Played1920
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠4–⁠107–⁠2–⁠11
Points19 (1.00 per game)23 (1.15 per game)
Expected Points per game1.291.39
Goals23–⁠2824–⁠33
xG per game1.32–⁠1.421.23–⁠1.23
Home: points, xG per game0.62, 1.36–⁠0.931.70, 1.37–⁠1.10
Away: points, xG per game1.27, 1.29–⁠1.780.60, 1.10–⁠1.36
ManagerSteven Hammell (19)Lee Johnson (20)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.22AttackMotherwell1.06, 7thHibernian1.12, 5thDefence (lower is better)Motherwell1.34, 9thHibernian1.21, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanMotherwell attack: 1.06Hibernian attack: 1.121.121.06HibernianMotherwellDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanMotherwell defence: 1.34Hibernian defence: 1.211.341.21

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

MotherwellHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−8%+21%−4%−22%
Counter-attacks+84%+15%+4%+86%
Set pieces+2%−9%+20%−12%
Penalties+25%−25%−53%+66%
Headers−25%+27%+10%−28%
Left side+9%average+23%−31%
Centre−9%+32%−20%−4%
Right side−1%average+16%−20%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdHibernian concededLeft side+9%−20%Centre−9%−4%Right side−1%−31%Open play−8%−22%Counter-attacks+84%+86%Set pieces+2%−12%Headers−25%−28%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdMotherwell concededLeft side+23%averageCentre−20%+32%Right side+16%averageOpen play−4%+21%Counter-attacks+4%+15%Set pieces+20%−9%Headers+10%+27%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

MotherwellHibernian

1.32xG1.23
1.42xG against1.23
49%Possession57%
12.4Shots16.6
12.0Shots against10.3
3.4Shots on target4.9
1.8Big chances1.4
17.4Touches in the opposition box24.6
359Passes411
69%Pass accuracy77%
5.4Corners6.5
50%Field tilt63%
34.4Final-third entries47.8
8.6Box entries13.9
12.7Passes per defensive action11.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.411.83
Ahead191.210.94
Behind291.261.15

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level351.051.25
Ahead181.371.23
Behind371.341.20

xG by period

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.301–4
16–300.170.284–3
31–450.270.254–4
46–600.240.187–4
61–750.280.152–8
76–900.280.255–5

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.112–7
16–300.090.151–4
31–450.260.226–5
46–600.270.265–6
61–750.210.156–5
76–900.260.334–6

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Motherwell

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTKelly 19McGinn 15O'Donnell 4Johansen 16Mugabi 3McGinn 2Lamie 17Penney 14O'Donnell 4Carroll 1Slattery 11Cornelius 6Maguire 4Goss 14Tierney 1Morris 1Shields 8Spittal 4McKinstry 2Spittal 4Goss 4Slattery 3Spittal 9McKinstry 6Shields 2van Veen 15Shields 2Moult 14-2-3-1 in 10 of 19 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (10), 4-3-3 (5), 4-4-2 (2), 4-5-1 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMarshall 20Cadden 15Porteous 4Fish 1Bushiri 11Porteous 11Hanlon 18Cabraja 11Stevenson 4Kukharevych 3Newell 12Campbell 6Porteous 3Kenneh 13Boyle 6Cadden 5Magennis 3Campbell 6Newell 4Cabraja 3Youan 10Newell 3Henderson 2Kukharevych 6Youan 4Boyle 34-2-3-1 in 9 of 20 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (9), 3-5-2 (4), 4-4-2 (3), 4-1-4-1 (3), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
8 October 2022Hibernian1–0MotherwellxG 0.67–0.34
26 January 2022Motherwell0–0HibernianxG 0.61–0.38
4 December 2021Hibernian1–1MotherwellxG 1.89–1.32
1 August 2021Motherwell2–3HibernianxG 1.47–2.88
27 February 2021Hibernian0–2MotherwellxG 1.70–1.00
5 December 2020Motherwell0–3HibernianxG 1.22–1.08

7 league meetings since 2020/21: Motherwell won 1, Hibernian won 3, and 3 were drawn. Goals 5–8 and xG 0.98–1.44 per game.

Key players

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
van Veen181,562900.600.07
Tierney4468100.220.12
Spittal181,359330.110.20
McKinstry8757210.110.20

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kukharevych10744310.390.13
Boyle10936510.330.13
Youan141,232150.200.14
Magennis5475200.270.04

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.