Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Hibernian 1–3 Motherwell

Saturday 1 April 2023, 15:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 30 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Graham Grainger · Attendance 16,598

Hibernian Nisbet 62'

Motherwell Goss 7', van Veen 54' (pen), 81'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianMotherwell
Goals13
xG0.901.79
Non-penalty xG0.901.01
Expected Points0.672.07

Hibernian 14%Draw 26%Motherwell 61%

Most likely score 1–1, 15%. Final score 1–3, 6%.

Motherwell goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+3%6%2%3%6%2%1%6%6%3%1%1%13%13%15%14%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTMcKirdy on for Doyle-Hayes, 46'Cabraja on for Stevenson, Newell on for Egan-Riley, and Kukharevych on for Campbell, 63'Henderson on for Hoppe, 81'Paton on for Spittal, 57'Aitchison on for Mandron, 66'O'Donnell on for Furlong, 85'Nisbet 62'Goss 7'van Veen 54' (pen)van Veen 81'Motherwell 1.79Hibernian 0.9000.511.520153045607590HTMcKirdy on for Doyle-Hayes, 46'Cabraja on for Stevenson, Newell on for Egan-Riley, and Kukharevych on for Campbell, 63'Henderson on for Hoppe, 81'Paton on for Spittal, 57'Aitchison on for Mandron, 66'O'Donnell on for Furlong, 85'Nisbet 62'Goss 7'van Veen 54' (pen)van Veen 81'1.790.90HibernianMotherwell

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianMotherwell

0.90 −0.38xG1.79 +0.60
0.90Non-penalty xG1.01
0.49 −0.67xG on target2.35 +1.28
11 −4Shots17 +6
3 −1.9Shots on target5 +1.8
1 −0.5Big chances3 +1.4
20 −2Touches in the opposition box23 +7
58% +3Possession42% −6
483 +78Passes343 −9
73% −2Pass accuracy65% −1
49% −8Field tilt51% +3
57 +13Final-third entries40 +7
14 +1.8Box entries14 +5.9
17.1 +6Passes per defensive action21.4 +8
6 +0.4Corners5 +0.1
12 −3Tackles16 −1
14 +5.3Interceptions11 +1.9
16 −5Clearances13 −5
2 0.0Saves2 −0.8
12 0Fouls7 −6
0 −1.8Offsides1 −0.8

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Newell 86', 0.09 xGNisbet 90+3', 0.09 xGNisbet 13', 0.08 xGNewell 86', 0.08 xGKukharevych 90+3', 0.08 xGNisbet 56', 0.05 xGKukharevych 90+6', 0.05 xGCadden 22', 0.03 xGHoppe 43', 0.03 xGMcKirdy 65', 0.03 xGNisbet 62', 0.29 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals76%0.68 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.68 xG, 1 goal18%0.16 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.16 xG, 0 goals7%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Motherwell

Aitchison 90', 0.17 xGvan Veen 6', 0.15 xGvan Veen 32', 0.10 xGMandron 45', 0.06 xGSpittal 46', 0.06 xGvan Veen 50', 0.06 xGvan Veen 50', 0.06 xGvan Veen 19', 0.05 xGAitchison 90+6', 0.05 xGMandron 59', 0.04 xGSpittal 25', 0.03 xGMcGinn 36', 0.02 xGGoss 55', 0.02 xGPaton 59', 0.02 xGGoss 7', 0.09 xG, goalvan Veen 81', 0.04 xG, goal6%0.06 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 0 goals42%0.42 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.42 xG, 0 goals23%0.23 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals26%0.26 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.26 xG, 2 goals3%0.03 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianMotherwell

0.66 8 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.73 10 shots, 0 goals
0.24 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.27 6 shots, 2 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
7 min (7%) · Hibernian 0.00, Motherwell 0.24 xG
Motherwell ahead
89 min (93%) · Hibernian 0.90, Motherwell 1.55 xG

Line-ups

1262541214816321513MarshallEgan-RileyFishHanlonCaddenJeggoDoyle-HayesStevensonCampbellNisbetHoppeYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoal63'46'63'63'81'Hibernian 3-4-1-2Lee Johnson1166652222718247219KellyMcGinnButcherCaseyJohnstonGossCorneliusFurlongSpittalMandronvan VeenGoalYellow cardGoalGoal85'57'66'Motherwell 3-4-1-2Stuart Kettlewell

Hibernian substitutes

  • 46' McKirdy for Doyle-Hayes
  • 63' Cabraja for Stevenson
  • 63' Newell for Egan-Riley
  • 63' Kukharevych for Campbell
  • 81' Henderson for Hoppe

Motherwell substitutes

  • 57' Paton for Spittal
  • 66' Aitchison for Mandron
  • 85' O'Donnell for Furlong

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Marshall GK900.000.0000.0420
Egan-RileyCB630.000.0000.0419
FishCB900.000.0100.0829
HanlonCB900.000.0510.1095
CaddenRWB9010.030.0910.32153
Jeggo CM900.000.1610.2774
Doyle-Hayes CM460.000.0300.0440
StevensonLWB630.000.0110.0437
CampbellAM630.000.0520.0753
NisbetST9010.510.0000.1611
HoppeST810.030.010−0.0122
McKirdyFW440.030.0000.0230
CabrajaDF270.000.0100.0223
NewellMF270.180.0110.0230
KukharevychFW270.130.0400.0131
HendersonMF90.000.1430.1111

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KellyGK900.000.0000.0231
McGinnCB900.020.0100.0335
ButcherCB900.000.0010.0425
CaseyCB900.000.0720.0937
JohnstonRWB900.000.0910.1375
GossCM9010.100.0400.15135
CorneliusCM900.000.0100.0222
Furlong LWB850.000.0110.0136
SpittalAM570.090.0930.1663
MandronST660.090.0300.1821
van VeenST9021.240.0810.1431
PatonMF330.020.0710.0832
AitchisonMF240.230.0000.0000
O'DonnellDF50.000.0000.0011

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Marshall and Cadden: 3 passesFish and Doyle-Hayes: 3 passesEgan-Riley and Stevenson: 3 passesCadden and Doyle-Hayes: 3 passesJeggo and Campbell: 3 passesFish and Jeggo: 4 passesEgan-Riley and Jeggo: 4 passesMarshall and Fish: 5 passesHanlon and Jeggo: 5 passesHanlon and Campbell: 5 passesJeggo and Doyle-Hayes: 5 passesDoyle-Hayes and Stevenson: 5 passesDoyle-Hayes and Hoppe: 5 passesEgan-Riley and Doyle-Hayes: 6 passesHanlon and Stevenson: 6 passesCadden and Campbell: 6 passesDoyle-Hayes and Campbell: 6 passesMarshall and Egan-Riley: 8 passesHanlon and Hoppe: 8 passesMarshall and Hanlon: 9 passesEgan-Riley and Cadden: 9 passesStevenson and Hoppe: 10 passesFish and Hanlon: 12 passesEgan-Riley and Campbell: 12 passesFish and Egan-Riley: 13 passesHanlon and Doyle-Hayes: 15 passesMarshall: 21 completed passesFish: 22 completed passesEgan-Riley: 34 completed passesHanlon: 33 completed passesCadden: 12 completed passesJeggo: 12 completed passesDoyle-Hayes: 23 completed passesStevenson: 19 completed passesCampbell: 18 completed passesHoppe: 13 completed passesNisbet: 2 completed passes1252641214816321315MarshallFishEgan-RileyHanlonCaddenJeggoDoyle-HayesStevensonCampbellHoppeNisbetStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Motherwell

Kelly and Casey: 4 passesCasey and Furlong: 4 passesJohnston and Spittal: 4 passesGoss and Cornelius: 4 passesMandron and van Veen: 4 passesMcGinn and Cornelius: 5 passesJohnston and Mandron: 5 passesSpittal and Mandron: 5 passesButcher and Goss: 6 passesMcGinn and Spittal: 6 passesJohnston and Goss: 6 passesGoss and Furlong: 6 passesFurlong and Mandron: 6 passesMcGinn and Johnston: 7 passesGoss and Spittal: 7 passesSpittal and van Veen: 7 passesButcher and McGinn: 8 passesButcher and Spittal: 8 passesJohnston and Cornelius: 9 passesMcGinn and Goss: 10 passesFurlong and Spittal: 10 passesKelly: 8 completed passesCasey: 12 completed passesButcher: 17 completed passesMcGinn: 25 completed passesJohnston: 12 completed passesGoss: 26 completed passesCornelius: 16 completed passesFurlong: 15 completed passesSpittal: 24 completed passesMandron: 11 completed passesvan Veen: 4 completed passes1526616222718247219KellyCaseyButcherMcGinnJohnstonGossCorneliusFurlongSpittalMandronvan VeenStarters until 57' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
CaddenJeggo11
HanlonFish10
FishHanlon10
FishCadden9
FishEgan-Riley8

Motherwell

FromToPasses
McGinnGoss9
McGinnJohnston8
CorneliusJohnston8
Johnstonvan Veen8
ButcherSpittal6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

11+6.512+5.115+2.26−1.93−3.44−1.69+2.69+4.57+0.514+5.85−0.57+2.24+0.911+5.24−3.22−1.83−1.52−0.51−3.611+6.41−1.30−1.70−0.84+2.22−0.40−0.80−0.70−0.81+0.40−0.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 29 matches

Motherwell

3−1.95−0.78−4.16−0.65−0.77−0.315+8.76−0.13−4.010+2.35−1.88+2.79+5.94−1.85−1.950.04+0.23−0.12−2.19+4.03+0.44+2.41+0.11−1.31−2.00−1.00−0.41+0.20−0.51−0.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 29 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.010.010.010.010.020.020.030.020.020.030.050.030.040.080.150.030.020.100.040.110.030.160.04−0.030.30LessMore

Motherwell

0.010.020.010.030.040.010.040.010.050.040.010.030.060.040.030.040.040.070.120.050.07−0.020.030.26LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.26AttackHibernian1.22 → 1.19Motherwell1.04 → 1.07Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.21 → 1.25Motherwell1.40 → 1.36

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Top six95%87%−8
Motherwell
11th4%1%−3
Bottom1%<1%−1
Livingston
Top six62%66%+4
St. Mirren
Top six46%49%+3

From the forecast before the match (1 April 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianMotherwell
Expected goals1.640.91
Win54%20%
Expected Points1.880.86
Clean sheet40%19%

Hibernian 54%Draw 26%Motherwell 20%

Most likely score 1–0, 12%. Both sides score 49%.

Motherwell goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+8%7%3%1%5%2%4%1%6%5%2%2%2%1%12%12%11%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 1 April 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawMotherwell win
Hibernian
Top six95%99%95%87%
Motherwell
11th4%5%2%1%
Bottom1%1%1%<1%
Livingston
Top six62%60%62%66%
St. Mirren
Top six46%44%47%49%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. L1–318 MarCeltic (A)xG 0.90–3.96
  2. L1–48 MarRangers (H)xG 0.48–4.02
  3. W4–14 MarLivingston (A)xG 1.36–0.43
  4. W2–018 FebKilmarnock (H)xG 2.94–0.82
  5. W1–04 FebSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.64–0.36
  6. D1–131 JanRoss County (A)xG 1.03–0.69

Motherwell

  1. L2–418 MarRangers (H)xG 0.88–4.09
  2. W2–04 MarRoss County (A)xG 1.42–1.19
  3. D1–125 FebKilmarnock (A)xG 1.24–0.75
  4. W2–019 FebHearts (H)xG 1.33–0.94
  5. W2–115 FebSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.48–0.46
  6. L1–34 FebAberdeen (A)xG 0.85–1.94

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianMotherwell
Position5th9th
Played2929
Won, drawn, lost12–⁠4–⁠138–⁠6–⁠15
Points40 (1.38 per game)30 (1.03 per game)
Expected Points per game1.431.22
Goals45–⁠4636–⁠44
xG per game1.28–⁠1.311.19–⁠1.41
Home: points, xG per game1.71, 1.46–⁠1.230.86, 1.17–⁠1.21
Away: points, xG per game1.07, 1.11–⁠1.381.20, 1.21–⁠1.60
ManagerLee Johnson (29)Stuart Kettlewell (5)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.26AttackHibernian1.22, 4thMotherwell1.04, 7thDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.21, 3rdMotherwell1.40, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarHibernian attack: 1.22Motherwell attack: 1.041.221.04MotherwellHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarHibernian defence: 1.21Motherwell defence: 1.401.401.21

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianMotherwell
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−5%−12%−17%+15%
Counter-attacks+57%+35%+50%+8%
Set pieces+7%−9%−9%+10%
Penalties−28%+61%+7%−46%
Headers−4%−15%−22%+29%
Left side+4%−25%−1%+3%
Centre−13%−3%−17%+29%
Right side+19%−3%−14%average

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdMotherwell concededLeft side+4%averageCentre−13%+29%Right side+19%+3%Open play−5%+15%Counter-attacks+57%+8%Set pieces+7%+10%Headers−4%+29%

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdHibernian concededLeft side−1%−3%Centre−17%−3%Right side−14%−25%Open play−17%−12%Counter-attacks+50%+35%Set pieces−9%−9%Headers−22%−15%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianMotherwell

1.28xG1.19
1.31xG against1.41
55%Possession48%
14.8Shots11.2
11.9Shots against12.4
4.9Shots on target3.2
1.5Big chances1.6
21.7Touches in the opposition box16.0
405Passes352
76%Pass accuracy66%
5.6Corners4.9
57%Field tilt48%
43.6Final-third entries33.4
12.2Box entries8.1
11.6Passes per defensive action13.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level341.091.35
Ahead251.571.26
Behind311.261.29

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.251.73
Ahead191.121.00
Behind321.151.27

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.155–10
16–300.110.195–5
31–450.280.2310–6
46–600.270.277–10
61–750.210.179–6
76–900.250.309–9

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.233–5
16–300.140.255–8
31–450.220.245–5
46–600.200.2210–7
61–750.280.225–13
76–900.240.268–6

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMarshall 29Cadden 21Porteous 4Fish 1Bushiri 13Porteous 12Fish 8Hanlon 24Cabraja 1Cabraja 13Stevenson 11Kukharevych 3Kenneh 13Campbell 8Egan-Riley 4Newell 15Jeggo 6Boyle 6Cadden 5Henderson 3Campbell 11Newell 6Cabraja 3Youan 15McGeady 4Newell 3Youan 7Kukharevych 6Nisbet 54-2-3-1 in 13 of 29 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (13), 4-1-4-1 (6), 3-5-2 (4), 4-4-2 (3), 5-3-2 (2), 4-3-3 (1)

Motherwell

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTKelly 29McGinn 17Johnston 7O'Donnell 5Johansen 18McGinn 4Butcher 4Lamie 22Casey 5Penney 16O'Donnell 5Cornelius 2Slattery 13Cornelius 10Furlong 4Goss 20Tierney 1Morris 1Shields 10Spittal 4McGinn 4Spittal 9Goss 6Slattery 5Spittal 11McKinstry 8van Veen 4van Veen 21Obika 4Shields 24-2-3-1 in 11 of 29 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (11), 4-3-3 (8), 3-4-1-2 (4), 4-4-2 (2), 5-3-2 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 4-5-1 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
8 January 2023Motherwell2–3HibernianxG 1.64–1.73
8 October 2022Hibernian1–0MotherwellxG 0.67–0.34
26 January 2022Motherwell0–0HibernianxG 0.61–0.38
4 December 2021Hibernian1–1MotherwellxG 1.89–1.32
1 August 2021Motherwell2–3HibernianxG 1.47–2.88
27 February 2021Hibernian0–2MotherwellxG 1.70–1.00

8 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 4, Motherwell won 1, and 3 were drawn. Goals 11–7 and xG 1.47–1.06 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nisbet7581810.590.02
Kukharevych10797410.390.12
Boyle10936510.330.13
Youan231,928660.240.18

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
van Veen272,3661410.490.07
McKinstry101,045410.160.16
Tierney4574200.190.10
Spittal272,093450.100.18

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.