Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Kilmarnock 0–0 St. Mirren

Monday 2 January 2023, 15:00 · Rugby Park · Round 20 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Grant Irvine · Attendance 7,008

St. Mirren Erhahon sent off 7'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
Goals00
xG0.700.35
Expected Points1.610.93

Kilmarnock 38%Draw 47%St. Mirren 15%

Most likely score 0–0, 36%. Final score 0–0, 36%.

St. Mirren goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+12%2%24%10%1%8%3%2%36%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.750153045607590HTErhahon (St. Mirren), red card 7'Jones on for Alston, 63'Murray on for Wright, 75'Shaw on for Robinson, 90'Gogic on for Brophy, 15'Flynn on for Kiltie, 78'Shaughnessy on for Strain, 84'Greive on for Main, 85'Kilmarnock 0.70St. Mirren 0.3500.250.50.750153045607590HTErhahon (St. Mirren), red card 7'Jones on for Alston, 63'Murray on for Wright, 75'Shaw on for Robinson, 90'Gogic on for Brophy, 15'Flynn on for Kiltie, 78'Shaughnessy on for Strain, 84'Greive on for Main, 85'0.700.35KilmarnockSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockSt. Mirren

0.70 −0.21xG0.35 −0.80
0.24 −0.40xG on target0.00 −1.10
12 +1Shots6 −5
3 +0.1Shots on target0 −3.1
0 −1.3Big chances0 −2.0
34 +16Touches in the opposition box12 −5
72% +26Possession28% −9
559 +220Passes222 −43
80% +14Pass accuracy49% −13
76% +30Field tilt24% −14
82 +49Final-third entries20 −11
20 +11.5Box entries8 −1.1
10.8 −4Passes per defensive action17.2 0
6 +1.8Corners4 −2.1
11 −5Tackles16 +1
8 −3.3Interceptions10 +0.6
17 −2Clearances39 +16
0 −3.0Saves3 +0.6
8 −5Fouls11 −3
2 +0.1Offsides2 +0.8

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Doidge 34', 0.10 xGArmstrong 43', 0.10 xGAlston 47', 0.09 xGJones 81', 0.09 xGAlston 29', 0.08 xGMurray 90+3', 0.07 xGDoidge 82', 0.05 xGArmstrong 32', 0.03 xGMcKenzie 57', 0.03 xGPolworth 14', 0.02 xGArmstrong 59', 0.02 xGChrisene 47', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals57%0.40 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.40 xG, 0 goals19%0.13 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals19%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals6%0.04 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Greive 90+1', 0.10 xGBaccus 56', 0.09 xGBaccus 50', 0.05 xGGogic 62', 0.05 xGBaccus 31', 0.04 xGMain 21', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals26%0.09 xGCentral box: 1 shot, 0.09 xG, 0 goals56%0.19 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.19 xG, 0 goals18%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockSt. Mirren

0.65 10 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.25 5 shots, 0 goals
0.05 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.10 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
96 min (100%) · Kilmarnock 0.70, St. Mirren 0.35 xG

Line-ups

201952113183372616WalkerWrightTaylorMayoArmstrongPolworthAlstonChriseneMcKenzieDoidgeRobinsonYellow cardYellow card75'63'90'Kilmarnock 3-4-1-2Derek McInnes1232231183171611109CarsonStrainFraserGallagherDunneTanserBaccusErhahonKiltieMainBrophyYellow cardSent off84'78'85'15'St. Mirren 5-3-2Stephen Robinson

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 63' Jones for Alston
  • 75' Murray for Wright
  • 90' Shaw for Robinson

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 15' Gogic for Brophy · yellow card 76'
  • 78' Flynn for Kiltie
  • 84' Shaughnessy for Strain · yellow card 90+6'
  • 85' Greive for Main

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
WalkerGK900.000.0000.0321
WrightCB750.000.0100.0746
Taylor CB900.000.0200.02106
MayoCB900.000.0710.22136
ArmstrongRWB900.150.3240.32111
PolworthCM900.020.0600.19195
AlstonCM630.170.0100.0052
ChriseneLWB900.010.0830.19115
McKenzie AM900.030.0810.0634
DoidgeST900.150.051−0.1500
RobinsonST900.000.050−0.0220
JonesFW270.090.0900.2492
MurrayMF150.070.0310.0810
ShawFW00.000.000−0.0100

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
CarsonGK900.000.0000.0110
StrainRWB840.000.0100.0229
FraserCB900.000.0210.04213
GallagherCB900.000.0200.02113
Dunne CB900.000.0000.02213
TanserLWB900.000.0100.0556
BaccusCM900.180.0500.0113
Erhahon CM70.000.0000.0000
KiltieCM780.000.074−0.0123
MainST850.020.0510.1034
BrophyST150.000.000−0.0110
Gogic DF750.050.0500.1164
FlynnMF120.000.0000.0110
Shaughnessy DF60.000.0000.0003
GreiveFW50.100.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Taylor and Armstrong: 5 passesArmstrong and Doidge: 5 passesWalker and Mayo: 6 passesAlston and McKenzie: 6 passesWright and Armstrong: 7 passesMayo and Robinson: 7 passesArmstrong and McKenzie: 7 passesMcKenzie and Robinson: 7 passesTaylor and Mayo: 8 passesTaylor and Polworth: 9 passesAlston and Polworth: 9 passesWright and Chrisene: 10 passesMayo and Alston: 10 passesArmstrong and Chrisene: 10 passesAlston and Chrisene: 10 passesMayo and Chrisene: 11 passesArmstrong and Robinson: 12 passesWright and Taylor: 13 passesMayo and Polworth: 13 passesChrisene and McKenzie: 13 passesMayo and Armstrong: 14 passesWright and Polworth: 17 passesArmstrong and Polworth: 22 passesPolworth and Chrisene: 25 passesWalker: 13 completed passesWright: 34 completed passesTaylor: 30 completed passesMayo: 40 completed passesArmstrong: 38 completed passesAlston: 19 completed passesPolworth: 55 completed passesChrisene: 44 completed passesMcKenzie: 23 completed passesRobinson: 13 completed passesDoidge: 7 completed passes201952118313371626WalkerWrightTaylorMayoArmstrongAlstonPolworthChriseneMcKenzieRobinsonDoidgeStarters until 63' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
PolworthArmstrong21
ChrisenePolworth20
PolworthChrisene15
MayoArmstrong13
ArmstrongPolworth12

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
BaccusStrain8
FraserBaccus6
GogicKiltie5
TanserMain5
CarsonTanser4

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

3−2.06−0.94−3.48+2.710+3.311+4.93−3.36−0.510+2.36−0.43−2.61−3.15−0.84−1.350.04−0.32−0.54−0.24−0.23+0.63+1.31+0.30−2.13+0.10−1.51+0.21+0.60−0.52+1.46−6.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 19 matches

St. Mirren

4−0.79+1.725+11.814+5.15+1.113+3.85−2.27+2.111+4.77+0.33−3.06+1.72−1.14−0.36−0.13−0.81−2.83+0.63−0.57+3.66+3.51−0.70−0.82+0.21−1.12+0.82+1.50−1.00−0.70−1.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 17 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.030.040.020.010.020.040.060.020.070.050.120.080.040.030.100.06−0.020.06−0.13−0.070.060.150.190.18LessMore

St. Mirren

0.010.010.020.010.040.020.020.030.010.010.010.030.040.020.06−0.02−0.05−0.090.090.09LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.24AttackKilmarnock1.01 → 1.00St. Mirren1.00 → 0.98Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.33 → 1.29St. Mirren1.37 → 1.35

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six5%3%−2
11th22%24%+2
Bottom12%14%+2
St. Mirren
Top six52%53%+1
11th4%3%−1
Bottom1%1%0
Ross County
11th23%23%0
Bottom58%56%−2
Aberdeen
Top six69%70%+1
11th1%1%0

From the forecast before the match (2 January 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.340.97
Win45%26%
Expected Points1.631.08
Clean sheet38%26%

Kilmarnock 45%Draw 29%St. Mirren 26%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 46%.

St. Mirren goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+9%5%1%6%2%9%9%4%1%4%4%2%1%1%11%13%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 2 January 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawSt. Mirren win
Kilmarnock
Top six5%9%3%2%
11th22%17%24%27%
Bottom12%7%14%18%
St. Mirren
Top six52%41%53%68%
11th4%6%3%1%
Bottom1%2%1%1%
Ross County
11th23%22%23%25%
Bottom58%61%56%54%
Aberdeen
Top six69%70%70%66%
11th1%2%1%1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. W2–128 DecAberdeen (H)xG 1.91–0.42
  2. D2–223 DecMotherwell (A)xG 0.34–1.33
  3. L1–317 DecHearts (A)xG 1.09–2.40
  4. W1–012 NovHibernian (H)xG 0.96–0.85
  5. L0–49 NovDundee United (A)xG 0.85–0.83
  6. L2–34 NovLivingston (H)xG 1.04–1.68

St. Mirren

  1. D1–128 DecLivingston (A)xG 1.36–1.59
  2. W3–124 DecAberdeen (H)xG 3.27–0.98
  3. D1–112 NovRangers (H)xG 1.10–1.85
  4. D2–29 NovSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.87–1.19
  5. L2–35 NovRoss County (A)xG 0.59–1.14
  6. L0–329 OctHibernian (A)xG 0.82–1.87

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
Position9th5th
Played1917
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠4–⁠107–⁠4–⁠6
Points19 (1.00 per game)25 (1.47 per game)
Expected Points per game1.171.13
Goals17–⁠3321–⁠25
xG per game0.91–⁠1.201.15–⁠1.47
Home: points, xG per game1.89, 1.27–⁠1.122.10, 1.28–⁠1.08
Away: points, xG per game0.20, 0.58–⁠1.270.57, 0.96–⁠2.03
ManagerDerek McInnes (19)Stephen Robinson (10)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.24AttackKilmarnock1.01, 8thSt. Mirren1.00, 9thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.33, 7thSt. Mirren1.37, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecKilmarnock attack: 1.01St. Mirren attack: 1.001.011.00St. MirrenKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecKilmarnock defence: 1.33St. Mirren defence: 1.371.371.33

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−39%−15%−29%−2%
Counter-attacks−44%−52%+55%−73%
Set pieces+24%+29%+16%−1%
Penalties−75%−26%+10%+120%
Headers+16%−12%+30%−1%
Left side−8%−6%−11%+13%
Centre−32%−14%−21%−11%
Right side−29%+8%−12%−12%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−8%−12%Centre−32%−11%Right side−29%+13%Open play−39%−2%Counter-attacks−44%−73%Set pieces+24%−1%Headers+16%−1%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−11%+8%Centre−21%−14%Right side−12%−6%Open play−29%−15%Counter-attacks+55%−52%Set pieces+16%+29%Headers+30%−12%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockSt. Mirren

0.91xG1.15
1.20xG against1.47
46%Possession37%
11.2Shots11.4
12.6Shots against12.5
2.9Shots on target3.1
1.3Big chances2.0
17.7Touches in the opposition box17.2
338Passes265
67%Pass accuracy62%
4.2Corners6.1
46%Field tilt38%
33.3Final-third entries30.6
8.5Box entries9.1
14.4Passes per defensive action16.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level321.141.00
Ahead190.861.12
Behind390.741.40

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.091.34
Ahead211.381.54
Behind231.051.66

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.172–5
16–300.150.232–8
31–450.170.213–5
46–600.280.124–2
61–750.110.194–5
76–900.100.282–8

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.182–3
16–300.120.230–3
31–450.220.296–5
46–600.260.236–4
61–750.200.192–4
76–900.260.355–6

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTWalker 10Hemming 9Alebiosu 9Mayo 7Taylor 1Taylor 13Wright 11Mayo 7Stokes 4Chrisene 6McInroy 6Polworth 2Armstrong 7McKenzie 4Chrisene 3Power 16Polworth 4Armstrong 4Donnelly 7Alston 4Alebiosu 1Jones 6McKenzie 4Taylor 2Lafferty 8Cameron 5Armstrong 2Doidge 5Shaw 5Wright 34-4-2 in 4 of 19 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (4), 3-4-2-1 (4), 4-2-3-1 (3), 3-4-3 (2), 5-3-2 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-3-3-1 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1)

St. Mirren

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTCarson 17Strain 15Fraser 2Fraser 12Gogic 5Gallagher 14Shaughne… 3ShaughnessyDunne 17Tanser 9Tait 7Fraser 1Baccus 15Kiltie 4Erhahon 17O'Hara 15Ayunga 15Kiltie 1Main 15Greive 35-3-2 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
15 October 2022St. Mirren0–0KilmarnockxG 0.68–1.13
12 May 2021Kilmarnock3–3St. MirrenxG 1.33–1.21
6 February 2021St. Mirren2–0KilmarnockxG 1.56–0.49
2 January 2021Kilmarnock1–1St. MirrenxG 0.97–0.52
26 September 2020St. Mirren0–1KilmarnockxG 0.49–0.65

5 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 1, St. Mirren won 1, and 3 were drawn. Goals 5–6 and xG 0.91–0.89 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong141,293530.210.19
Shaw7628000.250.02
Stokes5456100.210.05
McInroy7533000.090.14

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ayunga151,186320.430.03
Main151,223300.200.08
O'Hara151,292400.200.06
Strain151,288120.050.18

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.