Matches › 2022/23

Hibernian 1–0 Kilmarnock

Saturday 3 September 2022, 15:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 6 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 15,426

Hibernian Newell 12'

Kilmarnock Taylor sent off 11'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Measure	Hibernian	Kilmarnock
Goals	1	0
xG	1.44	0.39
Expected Points	2.17	0.55

Hibernian 63%Draw 28%Kilmarnock 9%

Most likely score 1–0, 23%. Final score 1–0, 23%.

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianKilmarnock

1.44 +0.30xG0.39 −0.51

1.52 +0.97xG on target0.06 −0.43

25 +10Shots7 −7

8 +5.0Shots on target1 −1.8

2 +0.8Big chances0 −0.8

56% −5Possession44% +2

445 +42Passes344 +34

80% +2Pass accuracy72% +5

66% 0Field tilt34% −8

58 +8Final-third entries36 +3

23 +8.8Box entries9 −0.6

7.7 −3Passes per defensive action14.6 −1

7 −2.0Corners3 −1.8

22 +10Tackles12 −3

8 +1.6Interceptions9 −2.8

18 0Clearances17 0

1 −1.2Saves7 +2.8

12 −3Fouls10 −5

2 +0.2Offsides1 −1.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Zones Shots

Hibernian

Kilmarnock

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianKilmarnock

0.68 14 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.20 6 shots, 0 goals

0.28 2 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

0.48 9 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.18 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

0–01–0

Level: 12 min (13%) · Hibernian 0.29, Kilmarnock 0.02 xG
Hibernian ahead: 82 min (87%) · Hibernian 1.15, Kilmarnock 0.37 xG

Line-ups

Hibernian substitutes

51' McKirdy for Henderson
66' Doyle-Hayes for Campbell
66' Stevenson for Cabraja
90' Bojang for Youan

Kilmarnock substitutes

67' Murray for Shaw
67' Lafferty for Cameron · yellow card 77'
73' Sotona for Armstrong
73' Lyons for Alebiosu
86' McKenzie for Power · yellow card 90+1'

Players

Hibernian

Player	Pos	Min	G	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Marshall	GK	90		0.00	0.00	0	0.01	0	3
Cadden	RB	90		0.00	0.13	4	0.25	10	4
Hanlon	CB	90		0.13	0.01	0	0.08	3	7
Porteous	CB	90		0.02	0.06	0	0.13	11	5
Cabraja	LB	66		0.00	0.04	0	0.14	6	4
Campbell	DM	66		0.11	0.02	1	−0.01	1	2
Kenneh	DM	90		0.02	0.05	2	0.10	3	10
Newell	RW	90	1	0.16	0.30	3	0.23	7	4
Henderson	AM	51		0.32	0.01	1	−0.01	2	1
Boyle	LW	90		0.10	0.19	5	0.29	10	2
Youan	ST	90		0.30	0.04	1	−0.05	4	1
McKirdy	FW	39		0.10	0.04	0	0.06	4	3
Doyle-Hayes	MF	24		0.02	0.03	0	0.09	2	1
Stevenson	DF	24		0.00	0.00	0	0.01	1	2
Bojang	FW	0		0.18	0.05	0	0.13	1	0

Kilmarnock

Player	Pos	Min	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Walker	GK	90	0.00	0.00	1	0.05	4	0
Wright	CB	90	0.18	0.01	0	0.03	1	2
Taylor	CB	11	0.00	0.00	0	0.02	3	2
Mayo	CB	90	0.00	0.00	0	0.03	4	16
Alebiosu	RWB	73	0.00	0.00	0	0.01	3	6
Armstrong	CM	73	0.02	0.02	1	0.08	5	1
Power	CM	86	0.02	0.03	0	0.07	4	5
Polworth	LWB	90	0.01	0.01	1	0.04	4	3
Chrisene	AM	90	0.00	0.02	1	0.05	2	3
Shaw	AM	67	0.12	0.02	0	0.01	3	2
Cameron	ST	67	0.00	0.01	0	−0.01	1	0
Murray	FW	23	0.03	0.02	0	0.05	4	2
Lafferty	FW	23	0.00	0.00	0	−0.02	0	0
Sotona	MF	17	0.00	0.01	0	0.01	1	0
Lyons	MF	17	0.00	0.00	0	0.02	1	2
McKenzie	MF	4	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0	1

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

From	To	Passes
Hanlon	Porteous	29
Porteous	Hanlon	24
Porteous	Cadden	21
Hanlon	Cabraja	17
Cadden	Porteous	16

Kilmarnock

From	To	Passes
Chrisene	Power	12
Power	Chrisene	8
Polworth	Power	8
Shaw	Power	7
Power	Shaw	7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

Against its average of 5 matches

Kilmarnock

Against its average of 5 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

Kilmarnock

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

Chance	Before	With this result	Change
Hibernian
Top six	63%	72%	+9
11th	2%	1%	−1
Bottom	1%	<1%	−1
Kilmarnock
Top six	29%	22%	−7
11th	11%	13%	+2
Bottom	9%	11%	+2
Dundee United
11th	22%	21%	−1
Bottom	28%	28%	0
Motherwell
Top six	45%	44%	−1

From the forecast before the match (3 September 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Measure	Hibernian	Kilmarnock
Expected goals	1.42	0.84
Win	50%	22%
Expected Points	1.78	0.93
Clean sheet	43%	24%

Hibernian 50%Draw 28%Kilmarnock 22%

Most likely score 1–0, 14%. Both sides score 44%.

From the forecast as it stood on 3 September 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

Chance	Now	Hibernian win	Draw	Kilmarnock win
Hibernian
Top six	63%	72%	58%	52%
11th	2%	1%	2%	3%
Bottom	1%	<1%	1%	1%
Kilmarnock
Top six	29%	22%	31%	41%
11th	11%	13%	10%	7%
Bottom	9%	11%	8%	5%
Dundee United
11th	22%	21%	22%	25%
Bottom	28%	28%	29%	29%
Motherwell
Top six	45%	44%	47%	46%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

Kilmarnock

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Measure	Hibernian	Kilmarnock
Position	8th	9th
Played	5	5
Won, drawn, lost	1–⁠2–⁠2	1–⁠1–⁠3
Points	5 (1.00 per game)	4 (0.80 per game)
Expected Points per game	1.37	1.16
Goals	5–⁠6	3–⁠10
xG per game	1.14–⁠1.10	0.90–⁠1.37
Home: points, xG per game	1.00, 1.14–⁠1.27	1.33, 1.15–⁠1.47
Away: points, xG per game	1.00, 1.15–⁠0.99	0.00, 0.53–⁠1.21
Manager	Lee Johnson (5)	Derek McInnes (5)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

This season

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Chances	Hibernian		Kilmarnock
Chances	Created	Conceded	Created	Conceded
Open play	−9%	−23%	−28%	−5%
Counter-attacks	−70%	−40%	−1%	−83%
Set pieces	+15%	−13%	−2%	+81%
Penalties	−84%	+30%	−83%	−83%
Headers	+47%	+3%	−29%	−22%
Left side	+24%	−5%	+3%	−2%
Centre	−32%	−43%	−35%	+24%
Right side	+6%	−5%	−25%	+4%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+24%+4%Centre−32%+24%Right side+6%−2%Open play−9%−5%Counter-attacks−70%−83%Set pieces+15%+81%Headers+47%−22%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHibernian concededLeft side+3%−5%Centre−35%−43%Right side−25%−5%Open play−28%−23%Counter-attacks−1%−40%Set pieces−2%−13%Headers−29%+3%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianKilmarnock

1.14xG0.90

1.10xG against1.37

61%Possession42%

15.4Shots13.8

10.2Shots against12.6

3.0Shots on target2.8

1.2Big chances0.8

403Passes310

78%Pass accuracy67%

9.0Corners4.8

66%Field tilt42%

50.4Final-third entries32.6

14.2Box entries9.6

10.4Passes per defensive action15.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	42	0.73	1.21
Ahead	0	–	–
Behind	48	1.51	1.00

Kilmarnock

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	41	0.77	1.20
Ahead	3	1.16	0.51
Behind	46	1.01	1.58

xG by period

Hibernian

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.07	0.13	0–2
16–30	0.06	0.10	0–1
31–45	0.15	0.26	0–1
46–60	0.33	0.29	2–1
61–75	0.11	0.08	0–0
76–90	0.41	0.24	3–1

Kilmarnock

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.07	0.28	0–2
16–30	0.15	0.06	0–0
31–45	0.24	0.24	0–3
46–60	0.21	0.18	0–1
61–75	0.08	0.13	1–0
76–90	0.16	0.48	2–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (4), 5-3-2 (1)

Kilmarnock

Formations: 4-4-2 (2), 5-3-2 (2), 3-4-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

Date	Home	Score	Away	xG
16 January 2021	Hibernian	2–0	Kilmarnock	xG 0.68–0.64
24 October 2020	Kilmarnock	0–1	Hibernian	xG 0.97–1.50
1 August 2020	Hibernian	2–1	Kilmarnock	xG 1.18–0.70

3 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 3, Kilmarnock won 0, and 0 were drawn. Goals 5–1 and xG 1.12–0.77 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Boyle	22	2,033	9	3	0.30	0.20
Henderson	14	1,210	1	1	0.18	0.21
Doidge	7	986	2	0	0.32	0.06
Melkersen	10	777	0	1	0.26	0.03

Kilmarnock

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Taylor	5	450	2	0	0.08	0.00
Walker	5	450	0	0	0.00	0.00

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.