Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Hibernian 3–0 St. Mirren

Saturday 29 October 2022, 15:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 13 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Don Robertson · Attendance 15,256

Hibernian Boyle 45+4' (pen), Kukharevych 63', Henderson 67'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianSt. Mirren
Goals30
xG1.870.82
Non-penalty xG1.080.82
Expected Points2.200.57

Hibernian 65%Draw 24%St. Mirren 11%

Most likely score 2–0, 14%. Final score 3–0, 7%.

St. Mirren goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+3%3%1%5%1%6%1%7%7%3%2%2%13%14%14%14%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTMelkersen on for Boyle, 54'Campbell on for Henderson, 68'Stevenson on for Cabraja, 78'Youan on for Kukharevych and Fish on for Porteous, 79'Shaughnessy on for Tait, 46'Greive on for Ayunga, 70'Flynn on for Strain and Kiltie on for Baccus, 73'Henderson on for Dunne, 81'Boyle 45+4' (pen)Kukharevych 63'Henderson 67'Hibernian 1.87St. Mirren 0.8200.511.520153045607590HTMelkersen on for Boyle, 54'Campbell on for Henderson, 68'Stevenson on for Cabraja, 78'Youan on for Kukharevych and Fish on for Porteous, 79'Shaughnessy on for Tait, 46'Greive on for Ayunga, 70'Flynn on for Strain and Kiltie on for Baccus, 73'Henderson on for Dunne, 81'Boyle 45+4' (pen)Kukharevych 63'Henderson 67'1.870.82HibernianSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianSt. Mirren

1.87 +0.63xG0.82 −0.23
1.08Non-penalty xG0.82
2.25 +1.38xG on target0.65 −0.33
16 −1Shots11 0
4 −1.2Shots on target3 +0.2
4 +2.8Big chances1 −1.0
31 +7Touches in the opposition box14 +1
61% +2Possession39% +2
396 −24Passes248 −15
80% +1Pass accuracy61% 0
70% +6Field tilt30% −6
45 −5Final-third entries21 −9
14 −0.7Box entries7 −2.2
13.5 +3.8Passes per defensive action13.0 −3.6
6 −1.4Corners6 −0.1
11 −3Tackles10 −5
8 +0.5Interceptions14 +5.5
34 +17Clearances26 +4
3 +1.3Saves1 −1.7
12 −2Fouls16 +2
1 −1.0Offsides0 −1.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Kukharevych 61', 0.20 xGHenderson 56', 0.08 xGHenderson 39', 0.06 xGPorteous 9', 0.05 xGBoyle 19', 0.05 xGHenderson 24', 0.05 xGMelkersen 67', 0.05 xGCadden 45+1', 0.04 xGKukharevych 70', 0.03 xGKenneh 14', 0.02 xGKenneh 27', 0.02 xGCadden 43', 0.02 xGBushiri 22', 0.01 xGKukharevych 63', 0.32 xG, goalHenderson 67', 0.07 xG, goal18%0.20 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.20 xG, 0 goals5%0.05 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals52%0.57 xGWide in the box: 6 shots, 0.57 xG, 1 goal19%0.21 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.21 xG, 1 goal6%0.06 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Main 24', 0.29 xGGogic 90+1', 0.14 xGMain 23', 0.08 xGGogic 17', 0.07 xGAyunga 16', 0.05 xGShaughnessy 65', 0.05 xGBaccus 17', 0.04 xGMain 23', 0.03 xGErhahon 49', 0.03 xGTait 45', 0.02 xGStrain 51', 0.02 xG42%0.34 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.34 xG, 0 goals28%0.23 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals20%0.16 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.16 xG, 0 goals7%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals2%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianSt. Mirren

0.76 10 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.16 3 shots, 0 goals
0.32 5 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.66 8 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
49 min (52%) · Hibernian 1.11, St. Mirren 0.58 xG
Hibernian ahead
46 min (48%) · Hibernian 0.76, St. Mirren 0.24 xG

Line-ups

15334121861137799MarshallPorteousBushiriHanlonCaddenHendersonKennehNewellCabrajaBoyleKukharevychYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoalGoal79'68'78'54'79'Hibernian 3-5-2Lee Johnson123221318217166710CarsonStrainFraserGogicDunneTaitBaccusErhahonO'HaraAyungaMainYellow cardYellow cardYellow card73'81'46'73'70'St. Mirren 5-3-2Stephen Robinson

Hibernian substitutes

  • 54' Melkersen for Boyle
  • 68' Campbell for Henderson
  • 78' Stevenson for Cabraja
  • 79' Fish for Porteous
  • 79' Youan for Kukharevych

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 46' Shaughnessy for Tait
  • 70' Greive for Ayunga
  • 73' Flynn for Strain
  • 73' Kiltie for Baccus
  • 81' Henderson for Dunne

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Marshall GK900.000.0000.0103
Porteous CB790.050.0200.12137
BushiriCB900.010.0000.03211
HanlonCB900.000.0310.14104
CaddenRWB900.060.1700.0976
HendersonCM68110.260.0710.1021
KennehCM900.040.0210.0134
NewellCM900.000.5340.1815
CabrajaLWB780.000.0500.1184
BoyleST5410.840.0410.0750
KukharevychST7910.550.021−0.0603
MelkersenFW360.050.0210.0212
CampbellMF220.000.0000.0013
StevensonMF120.000.0100.0541
FishDF110.000.0000.0112
YouanFW110.000.0000.0011

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
CarsonGK900.000.0000.0320
StrainRWB730.020.2520.0746
FraserCB900.000.0400.0832
Gogic CB900.210.0000.02211
Dunne CB810.000.191−0.0828
Tait LWB460.020.0010.0003
BaccusCM730.040.0000.0214
ErhahonCM900.030.2530.0622
O'HaraCM900.000.021−0.0452
AyungaST700.050.0000.0422
MainST900.400.011−0.0612
ShaughnessyDF440.050.0000.0014
GreiveFW200.000.000−0.0100
FlynnMF170.000.0500.0715
KiltieFW170.000.0000.0000
HendersonMF90.000.0000.0111

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Marshall and Kenneh: 4 passesBushiri and Cadden: 4 passesBushiri and Kenneh: 4 passesHanlon and Henderson: 4 passesPorteous and Henderson: 4 passesNewell and Henderson: 4 passesHenderson and Boyle: 4 passesMarshall and Bushiri: 5 passesMarshall and Hanlon: 5 passesCadden and Henderson: 5 passesCabraja and Newell: 5 passesCabraja and Henderson: 5 passesMarshall and Porteous: 6 passesPorteous and Boyle: 6 passesPorteous and Newell: 7 passesHanlon and Kenneh: 9 passesPorteous and Kenneh: 12 passesBushiri and Porteous: 14 passesPorteous and Cadden: 16 passesBushiri and Hanlon: 17 passesHanlon and Cabraja: 23 passesMarshall: 18 completed passesBushiri: 25 completed passesHanlon: 36 completed passesPorteous: 34 completed passesCadden: 22 completed passesCabraja: 22 completed passesNewell: 15 completed passesKenneh: 23 completed passesHenderson: 15 completed passesBoyle: 9 completed passesKukharevych: 8 completed passes13345123116187799MarshallBushiriHanlonPorteousCaddenCabrajaNewellKennehHendersonBoyleKukharevychStarters until 54' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

St. Mirren

Carson and Dunne: 3 passesStrain and Erhahon: 3 passesStrain and Main: 3 passesTait and Erhahon: 3 passesBaccus and Main: 3 passesO'Hara and Erhahon: 3 passesErhahon and Main: 3 passesCarson and Fraser: 4 passesGogic and Dunne: 4 passesDunne and O'Hara: 4 passesStrain and Baccus: 5 passesFraser and Baccus: 5 passesFraser and Erhahon: 5 passesGogic and Fraser: 7 passesCarson: 9 completed passesStrain: 10 completed passesGogic: 7 completed passesDunne: 9 completed passesFraser: 12 completed passesTait: 4 completed passesBaccus: 6 completed passesO'Hara: 9 completed passesErhahon: 13 completed passesMain: 6 completed passesAyunga: 2 completed passes123131822217616107CarsonStrainGogicDunneFraserTaitBaccusO'HaraErhahonMainAyungaStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
HanlonCabraja16
PorteousBushiri15
BushiriHanlon13
HanlonBushiri12
BushiriPorteous10

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
CarsonFraser6
StrainBaccus6
O'HaraDunne5
GogicFraser5
FraserErhahon5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

3−0.36+0.817+7.87+0.26−1.010+6.19+2.87+2.68+3.07−0.86+1.28+3.21−1.34−1.34−3.72−1.22−2.40−3.25+1.13−2.11−1.52−0.20−1.21−1.10−2.71+0.21+0.11−0.40−0.82+1.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 12 matches

St. Mirren

2−2.512−2.011+2.45+1.26−2.66−2.49+4.26+0.411+4.47+0.56+1.63−0.12−2.35−0.42−1.94+0.61−1.55+2.23+0.13+0.51−1.00−0.80−1.61−1.21−0.41+0.40−1.11+0.41+0.14−4.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 11 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.010.010.020.010.020.010.030.070.010.010.020.050.040.040.010.040.080.020.060.020.070.09−0.01−0.05−0.030.010.26LessMore

St. Mirren

0.010.010.010.020.010.020.020.040.010.020.020.010.03−0.010.01−0.17−0.05−0.010.080.060.07LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.20AttackHibernian1.16 → 1.19St. Mirren0.93 → 0.92Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.08 → 1.06St. Mirren1.34 → 1.37

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Top six78%85%+7
11th1%<1%−1
St. Mirren
Top six48%40%−8
11th5%6%+1
Bottom2%2%0

From the forecast before the match (29 October 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.550.76
Win56%18%
Expected Points1.930.80
Clean sheet47%21%

Hibernian 56%Draw 27%St. Mirren 18%

Most likely score 1–0, 15%. Both sides score 43%.

St. Mirren goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+10%7%3%4%1%9%3%6%5%2%2%2%15%12%12%

From the forecast as it stood on 29 October 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawSt. Mirren win
Hibernian
Top six78%85%74%62%
11th1%<1%1%2%
St. Mirren
Top six48%40%52%64%
11th5%6%4%3%
Bottom2%2%1%1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. L1–221 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.88–0.85
  2. L1–615 OctCeltic (A)xG 0.44–2.74
  3. L0–111 OctDundee United (A)xG 1.31–0.56
  4. W1–08 OctMotherwell (H)xG 0.67–0.34
  5. W2–01 OctRoss County (A)xG 1.66–0.66
  6. W3–117 SepAberdeen (H)xG 2.80–0.66

St. Mirren

  1. W2–122 OctDundee United (H)xG 1.29–0.70
  2. D0–015 OctKilmarnock (H)xG 0.68–1.13
  3. L0–48 OctRangers (A)xG 0.37–2.73
  4. W2–11 OctLivingston (H)xG 0.77–1.45
  5. W2–018 SepCeltic (H)xG 0.82–1.18
  6. L0–33 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.81–2.25

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianSt. Mirren
Position5th4th
Played1211
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠2–⁠56–⁠1–⁠4
Points17 (1.42 per game)19 (1.73 per game)
Expected Points per game1.581.10
Goals14–⁠1612–⁠14
xG per game1.24–⁠0.971.05–⁠1.49
Home: points, xG per game1.83, 1.34–⁠0.802.29, 1.08–⁠0.97
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.14–⁠1.160.75, 0.99–⁠2.40
ManagerLee Johnson (12)Stephen Robinson (4)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.20AttackHibernian1.16, 5thSt. Mirren0.93, 10thDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.08, 3rdSt. Mirren1.34, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHibernian attack: 1.16St. Mirren attack: 0.931.160.93St. MirrenHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHibernian defence: 1.08St. Mirren defence: 1.341.341.08

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−6%−28%−28%+10%
Counter-attacks−7%+128%+105%−85%
Set pieces+30%−28%+6%−26%
Penalties−39%−39%−34%+230%
Headers+8%−36%+35%−9%
Left side+28%−20%−18%+23%
Centre−27%−26%−19%−13%
Right side+22%−14%−7%−13%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+28%−13%Centre−27%−13%Right side+22%+23%Open play−6%+10%Counter-attacks−7%−85%Set pieces+30%−26%Headers+8%−9%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdHibernian concededLeft side−18%−14%Centre−19%−26%Right side−7%−20%Open play−28%−28%Counter-attacks+105%+128%Set pieces+6%−28%Headers+35%−36%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianSt. Mirren

1.24xG1.05
0.97xG against1.49
59%Possession37%
17.2Shots10.8
9.8Shots against13.2
5.2Shots on target2.8
1.2Big chances2.0
23.7Touches in the opposition box13.2
420Passes263
79%Pass accuracy61%
7.4Corners6.1
64%Field tilt36%
50.1Final-third entries29.8
14.7Box entries9.2
9.7Passes per defensive action16.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level350.871.06
Ahead181.520.66
Behind371.461.04

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level420.951.23
Ahead241.301.40
Behind240.972.03

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.121–5
16–300.060.140–3
31–450.220.122–1
46–600.360.204–2
61–750.180.153–2
76–900.270.234–3

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.161–1
16–300.090.330–3
31–450.230.253–3
46–600.210.204–1
61–750.120.201–2
76–900.290.343–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMarshall 12Cadden 11Porteous 1Porteous 10Bushiri 4Hanlon 10Cabraja 9Campbell 1Kukharevych 1Kenneh 9Campbell 5Doyle-Hayes 2Newell 7Henderson 1Boyle 6Melkersen 3Porteous 1Campbell 4Newell 4Henderson 2Youan 6Henderson 2Boyle 1Kukharevych 5Youan 4Boyle 24-2-3-1 in 7 of 12 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 4-1-4-1 (3), 3-5-2 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

St. Mirren

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTCarson 11Strain 9Fraser 2Fraser 7Gogic 3Gallagher 9Shaughne… 3ShaughnessyDunne 11Tait 6Tanser 5Baccus 11Erhahon 11O'Hara 9Kiltie 2Ayunga 10Kiltie 1Main 9Greive 25-3-2 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
27 August 2022St. Mirren1–0HibernianxG 1.37–0.80
23 April 2022St. Mirren0–1HibernianxG 0.69–0.72
5 February 2022Hibernian0–1St. MirrenxG 1.22–0.38
11 December 2021St. Mirren1–1HibernianxG 0.60–1.06
18 September 2021Hibernian2–2St. MirrenxG 2.10–0.82
2 February 2021St. Mirren1–2HibernianxG 0.65–1.60

8 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 4, St. Mirren won 2, and 2 were drawn. Goals 10–6 and xG 1.18–0.82 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Boyle9882410.260.13
Youan10809130.230.15
Campbell10833400.140.10
Newell121,079100.080.15

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ayunga10796220.430.04
Main9712200.190.06
Strain9775020.040.19
Baccus11941200.110.05

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.