Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Ross County 2–1 Hibernian

Saturday 4 May 2024, 15:00 · Global Energy Stadium · Round 35 · Half-time 1–1 · Referee Don Robertson · Attendance 3,856

Ross County Murray 21', White 88'

Hibernian Maolida 15'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Ross CountyHibernian
Goals21
xG1.832.55
Expected Points0.891.87

Ross County 22%Draw 24%Hibernian 54%

Most likely score 2–2, 12%. Final score 2–1, 5%.

Hibernian goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+2%4%3%2%6%8%4%1%5%4%1%3%6%6%2%1%2%2%10%12%9%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTHarmon on for Reid, 52'Khela on for Dhanda, 69'White on for Brophy, 76'Le Fondre on for Vente, 46'Campbell on for Boyle, 81'Tavares on for Marcondes and Stevenson on for Moriah-Welsh, 90+1'Murray 21'White 88'Maolida 15'Hibernian 2.55Ross County 1.8301230153045607590HTHarmon on for Reid, 52'Khela on for Dhanda, 69'White on for Brophy, 76'Le Fondre on for Vente, 46'Campbell on for Boyle, 81'Tavares on for Marcondes and Stevenson on for Moriah-Welsh, 90+1'Murray 21'White 88'Maolida 15'2.551.83Ross CountyHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Ross CountyHibernian

1.83 +0.90xG2.55 +1.33
1.22 +0.27xG on target1.40 +0.12
12 +2Shots20 +9
4 +0.7Shots on target5 +0.9
3 +1.5Big chances2 +0.2
24 +6Touches in the opposition box28 +4
42% −2Possession58% +5
313 −24Passes443 +20
74% +8Pass accuracy80% +4
40% −3Field tilt60% +12
32 0Final-third entries48 +11
11 +2.0Box entries14 +2.1
13.9 −1Passes per defensive action20.3 +5
3 −1.6Corners5 −0.2
17 +2Tackles9 −5
6 −3.5Interceptions4 −3.2
14 −13Clearances18 −5
4 −0.1Saves2 −0.8
10 −2.3Fouls6 −3.9
1 −0.6Offsides0 −1.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Ross County

Brophy 26', 0.37 xGMurray 26', 0.30 xGWhite 81', 0.17 xGWhite 82', 0.13 xGMurray 55', 0.12 xGEfete 12', 0.08 xGDhanda 35', 0.05 xGMurray 87', 0.05 xGNightingale 24', 0.02 xGRandall 85', 0.02 xGWhite 88', 0.44 xG, goalMurray 21', 0.09 xG, goal44%0.80 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.80 xG, 0 goals47%0.86 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.86 xG, 2 goals4%0.08 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.08 xG, 0 goals5%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Boyle 56', 0.45 xGMarcondes 59', 0.15 xGMaolida 45+2', 0.10 xGVente 9', 0.09 xGBushiri 15', 0.09 xGVente 36', 0.09 xGMaolida 69', 0.09 xGMaolida 79', 0.08 xGMaolida 36', 0.07 xGMaolida 7', 0.06 xGBoyle 79', 0.06 xGMarcondes 25', 0.05 xGCampbell 90+3', 0.05 xGObita 45+2', 0.03 xGMarcondes 57', 0.03 xGNewell 73', 0.03 xGLe Fondre 80', 0.03 xGBushiri 2', 0.02 xGBoyle 2', 0.02 xGMaolida 15', 0.97 xG, goal38%0.97 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.97 xG, 1 goal49%1.25 xGCentral box: 11 shots, 1.25 xG, 0 goals2%0.04 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals10%0.26 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.26 xG, 0 goals1%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Ross CountyHibernian

1.48 9 shots, 2 goalsOpen play1.40 14 shots, 0 goals
0.17 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.18 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces1.15 6 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
84 min (88%) · Ross County 1.74, Hibernian 2.51 xG
Ross County ahead
5 min (5%) · Ross County 0.00, Hibernian 0.05 xG
Hibernian ahead
6 min (6%) · Ross County 0.09, Hibernian 0.00 xG

Line-ups

1355422421843102715LaidlawNightingaleBaldwinLeakEfeteRandallKingReidDhandaBrophyMurrayYellow cardGoal52'69'76'Ross County 3-4-1-2Don Cowie13123342130111020179WollacottCaddenBushiriHanlonObitaMoriah-WelshNewellBoyleMarcondesMaolidaVenteGoal90+1'81'90+1'46'Hibernian 4-2-3-1Nick Montgomery

Ross County substitutes

  • 52' Harmon for Reid · 1 assist
  • 69' Khela for Dhanda
  • 76' White for Brophy · goal 88'

Hibernian substitutes

  • 46' Le Fondre for Vente
  • 81' Campbell for Boyle
  • 90+1' Tavares for Marcondes
  • 90+1' Stevenson for Moriah-Welsh

Players

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LaidlawGK900.000.0000.0111
NightingaleCB900.020.0100.01312
BaldwinCB900.000.0400.07810
LeakCB900.000.0100.0977
EfeteRWB900.080.0310.0631
Randall CM900.020.0200.0442
KingCM900.000.091−0.0213
ReidLWB520.000.000−0.0111
DhandaAM690.050.0820.2051
BrophyST760.370.010−0.0301
MurrayST9010.560.1110.1543
HarmonMF3810.000.1410.0731
KhelaMF210.000.0100.0001
WhiteFW1410.730.0110.0101

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
WollacottGK900.000.0000.0330
CaddenRB900.000.0500.1496
BushiriCB900.110.0000.0206
HanlonCB900.000.2510.2257
ObitaLB900.030.0610.12117
Moriah-WelshDM900.000.0200.0554
NewellDM900.030.1210.1670
BoyleRW810.530.1420.2220
MarcondesAM900.240.1230.1032
MaolidaLW9011.380.1210.1051
VenteST460.180.0000.0410
Le FondreFW440.030.000−0.0101
CampbellMF90.050.0000.0000
TavaresMF00.000.000––0
StevensonMF00.000.000––0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Ross County

Laidlaw and Baldwin: 3 passesNightingale and Efete: 3 passesLeak and Randall: 3 passesLeak and King: 3 passesLeak and Dhanda: 3 passesEfete and Randall: 3 passesEfete and King: 3 passesRandall and Reid: 3 passesKing and Murray: 3 passesDhanda and Brophy: 3 passesBaldwin and King: 4 passesEfete and Murray: 4 passesDhanda and Murray: 4 passesLaidlaw and Leak: 5 passesBaldwin and Efete: 5 passesBaldwin and Dhanda: 5 passesNightingale and Randall: 5 passesBaldwin and Nightingale: 6 passesNightingale and Dhanda: 7 passesBaldwin and Leak: 8 passesLeak and Reid: 8 passesKing and Reid: 9 passesLaidlaw: 13 completed passesBaldwin: 20 completed passesNightingale: 15 completed passesLeak: 17 completed passesEfete: 11 completed passesRandall: 9 completed passesKing: 11 completed passesReid: 13 completed passesDhanda: 12 completed passesBrophy: 3 completed passesMurray: 6 completed passes1535422421843102715LaidlawBaldwinNightingaleLeakEfeteRandallKingReidDhandaBrophyMurrayStarters until 52' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hibernian

Wollacott and Cadden: 4 passesObita and Moriah-Welsh: 4 passesMoriah-Welsh and Newell: 4 passesMoriah-Welsh and Boyle: 4 passesBoyle and Maolida: 4 passesWollacott and Hanlon: 5 passesBushiri and Moriah-Welsh: 5 passesBushiri and Newell: 5 passesHanlon and Newell: 5 passesMoriah-Welsh and Maolida: 5 passesNewell and Marcondes: 5 passesBoyle and Marcondes: 5 passesWollacott and Bushiri: 6 passesCadden and Marcondes: 8 passesObita and Newell: 8 passesObita and Maolida: 9 passesBushiri and Hanlon: 10 passesMarcondes and Maolida: 11 passesNewell and Maolida: 12 passesHanlon and Obita: 13 passesCadden and Bushiri: 14 passesCadden and Moriah-Welsh: 15 passesCadden and Boyle: 15 passesWollacott: 12 completed passesCadden: 37 completed passesBushiri: 25 completed passesHanlon: 23 completed passesObita: 21 completed passesMoriah-Welsh: 24 completed passesNewell: 26 completed passesBoyle: 16 completed passesMarcondes: 18 completed passesMaolida: 19 completed passesVente: 5 completed passes13123342130111020179WollacottCaddenBushiriHanlonObitaMoriah-WelshNewellBoyleMarcondesMaolidaVenteStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Ross County

FromToPasses
BaldwinLeak7
LeakBaldwin7
NightingaleEfete6
KingReid6
KingLeak6

Hibernian

FromToPasses
CaddenMoriah-Welsh17
ObitaHanlon14
CaddenBoyle13
Moriah-WelshCadden12
HanlonWollacott11

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Ross County

3−1.26−1.717+0.65−3.80−5.45−2.58+1.12−3.96−1.75+0.14−1.22−1.52−3.05−1.48+3.82−1.96+3.84+0.67+1.91−1.62+0.42+1.05+3.45+2.82+0.91+0.40−0.70−0.40−0.71−8.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 34 matches

Hibernian

4−1.44−3.18+1.39+4.810+2.65−1.45−0.28+0.73−3.13−4.05+0.53+0.26+0.64−1.46+0.85+1.60−1.93+0.12−1.00−1.82+0.80−0.92+0.61−0.90−0.70−0.30−0.40−0.40−0.79−6.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 34 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Ross County

0.010.010.010.010.020.010.020.010.030.020.020.010.010.04−0.010.020.030.030.04−0.01−0.01−0.02−0.060.210.20LessMore

Hibernian

0.010.010.010.020.010.030.030.020.020.010.010.030.070.050.030.030.010.060.100.030.120.07−0.010.140.080.20LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackRoss County0.99 → 1.00Hibernian1.24 → 1.25Defence (lower is better)Ross County1.54 → 1.55Hibernian1.31 → 1.31

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Ross County
11th51%34%−17
Bottom<1%<1%0
St. Johnstone
11th48%66%+18

From the forecast before the match (4 May 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Ross CountyHibernian
Expected goals1.191.32
Win33%39%
Expected Points1.271.45
Clean sheet27%30%

Ross County 33%Draw 28%Hibernian 39%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 52%.

Hibernian goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+9%7%3%1%9%8%4%1%6%8%5%2%2%3%2%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 4 May 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowRoss County winDrawHibernian win
Ross County
11th51%34%53%65%
Bottom<1%<1%<1%1%
St. Johnstone
11th48%66%46%34%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Ross County

  1. L0–227 AprLivingston (A)xG 0.99–1.46
  2. W3–214 AprRangers (H)xG 2.91–3.57
  3. L0–16 AprKilmarnock (A)xG 0.47–0.98
  4. L1–230 MarAberdeen (A)xG 0.82–0.71
  5. W2–116 MarHearts (H)xG 1.74–1.27
  6. D2–213 MarHibernian (H)xG 1.14–1.33

Hibernian

  1. W3–127 AprSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.76–0.82
  2. D1–113 AprMotherwell (A)xG 1.51–0.97
  3. L1–26 AprSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.95–0.62
  4. L1–330 MarRangers (A)xG 0.50–2.82
  5. W3–016 MarLivingston (H)xG 2.56–0.93
  6. D2–213 MarRoss County (A)xG 1.33–1.14

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Ross CountyHibernian
Position11th7th
Played3434
Won, drawn, lost7–⁠9–⁠1810–⁠12–⁠12
Points30 (0.88 per game)42 (1.24 per game)
Expected Points per game0.981.21
Goals32–⁠5847–⁠52
xG per game0.93–⁠1.601.22–⁠1.48
Home: points, xG per game1.38, 1.07–⁠1.361.29, 1.32–⁠1.32
Away: points, xG per game0.44, 0.81–⁠1.821.18, 1.13–⁠1.64
ManagerDon Cowie (11)Nick Montgomery (30)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackRoss County0.99, 10thHibernian1.24, 5thDefence (lower is better)Ross County1.54, 11thHibernian1.31, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprRoss County attack: 0.99Hibernian attack: 1.241.240.99HibernianRoss CountyDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprRoss County defence: 1.54Hibernian defence: 1.311.541.31

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Ross CountyHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−16%+24%−3%+7%
Counter-attacks−30%+32%−10%−28%
Set pieces−40%−1%−16%average
Penalties−100%+4%−41%+48%
Headers−29%−16%−30%−18%
Left side−12%+24%−3%−14%
Centre−26%+24%−18%+8%
Right side−28%+1%+10%+9%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdHibernian concededLeft side−12%+9%Centre−26%+8%Right side−28%−14%Open play−16%+7%Counter-attacks−30%−28%Set pieces−40%averageHeaders−29%−18%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdRoss County concededLeft side−3%+1%Centre−18%+24%Right side+10%+24%Open play−3%+24%Counter-attacks−10%+32%Set pieces−16%−1%Headers−30%−16%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Ross CountyHibernian

0.93xG1.22
1.60xG against1.48
44%Possession53%
10.0Shots11.2
15.8Shots against13.4
3.3Shots on target4.1
1.5Big chances1.8
17.8Touches in the opposition box23.8
337Passes424
65%Pass accuracy76%
4.6Corners5.2
43%Field tilt48%
31.5Final-third entries36.7
9.0Box entries11.9
15.2Passes per defensive action15.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.041.24
Ahead150.941.88
Behind290.752.04

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level431.321.35
Ahead241.151.53
Behind231.121.66

xG by period

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.180.152–6
16–300.150.256–8
31–450.150.343–9
46–600.170.239–9
61–750.130.245–7
76–900.150.397–19

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.226–6
16–300.190.166–6
31–450.220.306–9
46–600.180.237–8
61–750.200.2312–8
76–900.270.3410–15

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Ross County

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTLaidlaw 21Wickens 13Nightingale 14Ayina 10Efete 7Baldwin 26Leak 29Borthwick-Jacks… 2Borthwick-JacksonHarmon 1Brown 24Efete 4Randall 3Randall 18Dhanda 5Sheaf 4Loturi 15Allardice 10King 6Reid 11Purrington 11Harmon 8Dhanda 16Sims 4Loturi 4White 23Murray 31Brophy 7Sims 43-4-1-2 in 14 of 34 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (14), 4-4-2 (6), 4-5-1 (4), 3-4-3 (2), 3-5-2 (2), 4-3-1-2 (2), 5-3-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1), 3-4-2-1 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMarshall 33Wollacott 1Miller 19Cadden 5Whittaker 5Fish 33Bushiri 21Hanlon 9Triantis 3Obita 25Stevenson 8Levitt 1Boyle 13Youan 11Campbell 5Levitt 16Jeggo 11Moriah-Welsh 7Newell 30Tavares 12Maolida 9Youan 9Vente 23Le Fondre 8Boyle 8Marcondes 9Campbell 3Newell 24-4-2 in 15 of 34 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (15), 4-2-3-1 (11), 4-1-4-1 (4), 4-3-3 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
13 March 2024Ross County2–2HibernianxG 1.14–1.33
2 March 2024Hibernian2–0Ross CountyxG 1.27–0.35
31 October 2023Hibernian2–2Ross CountyxG 0.50–0.52
31 January 2023Ross County1–1HibernianxG 0.69–1.03
8 November 2022Hibernian0–2Ross CountyxG 1.14–0.70
1 October 2022Ross County0–2HibernianxG 0.66–1.66

12 league meetings since 2020/21: Ross County won 3, Hibernian won 5, and 4 were drawn. Goals 11–16 and xG 0.72–1.41 per game.

Key players

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Sims10938300.360.05
Murray322,6081140.240.10
White232,011420.250.04
Brophy9999320.210.05

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Maolida121,046710.440.13
Doidge6643320.490.05
Le Fondre8884510.420.10
Marcondes111,015300.260.20

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.