Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Celtic 2–1 Rangers

Saturday 11 May 2024, 12:30 · Celtic Park · Round 36 · Half-time 2–1 · Referee William Collum · Attendance 59,622

Celtic O'Riley 35', Lundstram 38' (og)

Rangers Dessers 40' · Lundstram sent off 45+2'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

CelticRangers
Goals21
xG2.811.02
Non-penalty xG2.021.02
Expected Points2.530.33

Celtic 79%Draw 15%Rangers 6%

Most likely score 3–1, 14%. Final score 2–1, 13%.

Rangers goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+1%4%7%3%7%6%1%8%6%1%5%9%4%2%4%2%1%13%14%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTLundstram (Rangers), red card 45+2'Idah on for Furuhashi, 71'Kühn on for Forrest, 72'Ralston on for Johnston, 74'Iwata on for Hatate, 80'McCausland on for Souttar, 46'Raskin on for Lawrence and Yilmaz on for Barisic, 60'Wright on for Silva, 75'Roofe on for Dessers, 83'O'Riley 35'Lundstram 38' (og)Dessers 40'Celtic 2.81Rangers 1.0201230153045607590HTLundstram (Rangers), red card 45+2'Idah on for Furuhashi, 71'Kühn on for Forrest, 72'Ralston on for Johnston, 74'Iwata on for Hatate, 80'McCausland on for Souttar, 46'Raskin on for Lawrence and Yilmaz on for Barisic, 60'Wright on for Silva, 75'Roofe on for Dessers, 83'O'Riley 35'Lundstram 38' (og)Dessers 40'2.811.02CelticRangers

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

CelticRangers

2.81 +0.16xG1.02 −1.40
2.02Non-penalty xG1.02
1.90 −0.81xG on target0.97 −1.40
22 +2Shots8 −14
6 −1.6Shots on target1 −6.5
3 −1.1Big chances2 −1.6
32 −13Touches in the opposition box15 −21
68% −1Possession32% −32
553 −96Passes255 −283
87% +2Pass accuracy67% −15
79% 0Field tilt21% −51
82 +7Final-third entries26 −34
22 −2Box entries5 −14
9.1 −1Passes per defensive action13.1 +2
10 +0.5Corners5 −2.9
10 −6Tackles9 −6
7 +1.9Interceptions8 +1.2
32 +17Clearances19 +4
0 −1.8Saves6 +4.0
14 +4Fouls17 +6
3 +1.1Offsides0 −2.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Celtic

Idah 90+3', 0.42 xGFuruhashi 31', 0.37 xGIdah 86', 0.24 xGFuruhashi 58', 0.20 xGMcGregor 21', 0.08 xGO'Riley 25', 0.07 xGKühn 73', 0.07 xGForrest 21', 0.06 xGO'Riley 47', 0.06 xGO'Riley 9', 0.05 xGMcGregor 21', 0.05 xGMcGregor 50', 0.05 xGFuruhashi 66', 0.05 xGForrest 4', 0.04 xGMcGregor 59', 0.04 xGForrest 60', 0.04 xGForrest 7', 0.03 xGMcGregor 19', 0.03 xGHatate 48', 0.03 xGHatate 45', 0.02 xGO'Riley 35', 0.03 xG, goal12%0.24 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.24 xG, 0 goals56%1.13 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 1.13 xG, 0 goals3%0.07 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 1 goal26%0.53 xGEdge of the box: 11 shots, 0.53 xG, 0 goals2%0.05 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Rangers

Silva 20', 0.20 xGSterling 5', 0.12 xGWright 78', 0.04 xGSilva 15', 0.03 xGDiomande 84', 0.02 xGYilmaz 90+2', 0.02 xGSilva 70', 0.01 xGDessers 40', 0.57 xG, goal68%0.69 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.69 xG, 1 goal20%0.20 xGCentral box: 1 shot, 0.20 xG, 0 goals7%0.07 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals4%0.04 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals2%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

CelticRangers

1.55 19 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.96 6 shots, 1 goal
0.42 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.04 1 shot, 0 goals
0.05 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.02 1 shot, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 0 goalsPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
35 min (36%) · Celtic 0.80, Rangers 0.35 xG
Celtic ahead
62 min (64%) · Celtic 2.01, Rangers 0.67 xG

Line-ups

12205333424149838HartJohnstonCarter-VickersScalesTaylorO'RileyMcGregorHatateForrestFuruhashiMaedaGoalYellow cardYellow cardYellow card74'80'72'71'Celtic 4-3-3Brendan Rodgers1226531424211179ButlandTavernierDaviesSouttarBarisicDiomandeLundstramSterlingLawrenceSilvaDessersOwn goalSent offGoal46'60'60'75'83'Rangers 4-2-3-1Philippe Clement

Celtic substitutes

  • 71' Idah for Furuhashi
  • 72' Kühn for Forrest
  • 74' Ralston for Johnston
  • 80' Iwata for Hatate

Rangers substitutes

  • 46' McCausland for Souttar
  • 60' Yilmaz for Barisic
  • 60' Raskin for Lawrence
  • 75' Wright for Silva
  • 83' Roofe for Dessers

Players

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HartGK900.000.0000.0201
JohnstonRB740.000.5750.3236
Carter-VickersCB900.000.0400.21228
ScalesCB900.000.0610.21159
TaylorLB900.000.0830.02105
O'RileyCM9011.000.4330.3874
McGregor CM9010.240.1440.1967
Hatate CM800.050.061−0.0912
ForrestRW720.170.2620.20131
FuruhashiST710.620.010−0.0200
Maeda LW900.000.0400.0963
IdahFW190.670.0000.1022
KühnFW180.070.0100.0841
RalstonDF160.000.2900.1824
IwataMF100.000.0000.0100

Rangers

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ButlandGK900.000.0000.0221
TavernierRB900.000.1010.0226
DaviesCB900.000.0010.01110
SouttarCB460.000.0000.0224
BarisicLB600.000.1200.2121
DiomandeDM900.020.0100.0013
Lundstram DM450.000.0200.0540
SterlingRW9010.120.5720.18410
LawrenceAM600.000.0000.0113
SilvaLW750.250.0100.0232
DessersST8310.570.0100.0110
McCauslandMF440.000.010−0.0111
YilmazDF300.020.0200.0542
RaskinMF300.000.0000.0331
WrightFW150.040.0000.0310
RoofeFW70.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Celtic

Carter-Vickers and Hatate: 6 passesJohnston and O'Riley: 7 passesTaylor and O'Riley: 7 passesTaylor and Maeda: 8 passesMcGregor and Furuhashi: 8 passesMcGregor and Maeda: 8 passesCarter-Vickers and Taylor: 9 passesHatate and McGregor: 9 passesJohnston and McGregor: 11 passesCarter-Vickers and Forrest: 11 passesO'Riley and McGregor: 11 passesHart and Scales: 14 passesJohnston and Carter-Vickers: 16 passesCarter-Vickers and O'Riley: 16 passesO'Riley and Forrest: 16 passesJohnston and Forrest: 17 passesScales and Hatate: 17 passesScales and McGregor: 17 passesTaylor and Hatate: 17 passesMcGregor and Forrest: 17 passesHart and Carter-Vickers: 18 passesTaylor and McGregor: 19 passesCarter-Vickers and McGregor: 21 passesScales and Taylor: 27 passesScales and Carter-Vickers: 32 passesHart: 26 completed passesJohnston: 37 completed passesScales: 64 completed passesCarter-Vickers: 67 completed passesTaylor: 53 completed passesO'Riley: 33 completed passesHatate: 30 completed passesMcGregor: 62 completed passesForrest: 30 completed passesFuruhashi: 6 completed passesMaeda: 11 completed passes12520333414249838HartJohnstonScalesCarter-VickersTaylorO'RileyHatateMcGregorForrestFuruhashiMaedaStarters until 71' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

Rangers

Souttar and Sterling: 3 passesLundstram and Diomande: 3 passesLundstram and Silva: 3 passesTavernier and Lundstram: 4 passesLawrence and Silva: 4 passesButland and Davies: 5 passesTavernier and Diomande: 5 passesBarisic and Silva: 5 passesLundstram and Lawrence: 5 passesTavernier and Souttar: 6 passesSouttar and Lundstram: 6 passesButland and Souttar: 9 passesDavies and Barisic: 9 passesBarisic and Lundstram: 9 passesDavies and Souttar: 12 passesButland: 12 completed passesTavernier: 11 completed passesDavies: 15 completed passesSouttar: 19 completed passesBarisic: 15 completed passesLundstram: 16 completed passesDiomande: 7 completed passesSterling: 6 completed passesLawrence: 10 completed passesSilva: 6 completed passesDessers: 2 completed passes1226531442211179ButlandTavernierDaviesSouttarBarisicLundstramDiomandeSterlingLawrenceSilvaDessersStarters until 45+2' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Celtic

FromToPasses
Carter-VickersScales19
ScalesCarter-Vickers17
ScalesTaylor17
Carter-VickersO'Riley15
McGregorTaylor14

Rangers

FromToPasses
SouttarDavies10
TavernierRaskin8
DaviesBarisic7
LundstramSouttar6
ButlandSouttar6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Celtic

6+2.99+4.912+3.55−0.74−0.65−0.35+0.67+2.88+1.96−1.17+2.14+0.14+0.44−1.96−1.23−1.430.02−0.34+0.85−0.34+0.52−0.90−1.90−2.81−2.710.00−0.61+0.40−0.72+0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 35 matches

Rangers

6+2.84−0.318+9.510+5.90−4.07+1.15+0.23−1.27+0.13−4.92−4.95−0.13−0.44−2.24−2.47+2.25+0.91−2.11−3.13−2.02−0.72−0.62+0.42−0.33+0.40−0.80−0.80−0.91+0.52+0.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 35 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Celtic

0.010.040.040.020.020.020.090.010.020.040.060.170.110.140.050.170.21−0.120.030.05−0.070.040.390.34LessMore

Rangers

0.010.010.050.010.010.010.010.020.030.010.020.04−0.010.030.010.030.02−0.02−0.010.180.20LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackCeltic2.33 → 2.35Rangers2.19 → 2.11Defence (lower is better)Celtic0.74 → 0.74Rangers0.76 → 0.80

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Celtic
Title89%>99%+11
Rangers
Title11%<1%−11

From the forecast before the match (11 May 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

CelticRangers
Expected goals1.621.12
Win48%26%
Expected Points1.711.03
Clean sheet33%20%

Celtic 48%Draw 26%Rangers 26%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 55%.

Rangers goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+7%7%4%2%7%2%8%5%2%5%5%3%1%2%2%1%10%12%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 May 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowCeltic winDrawRangers win
Celtic
Title89%>99%95%63%
Rangers
Title11%<1%5%37%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Celtic

  1. W3–04 MayHearts (H)xG 2.78–0.43
  2. W2–128 AprDundee FC (A)xG 1.53–1.10
  3. W3–013 AprSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.33–0.18
  4. D3–37 AprRangers (A)xG 1.96–1.69
  5. W3–031 MarLivingston (A)xG 2.11–0.14
  6. W3–116 MarSt. Johnstone (H)xG 4.02–0.73

Rangers

  1. W4–15 MayKilmarnock (H)xG 4.90–0.39
  2. W2–128 AprSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.74–0.85
  3. D0–017 AprDundee FC (A)xG 1.06–0.51
  4. L2–314 AprRoss County (A)xG 3.57–2.91
  5. D3–37 AprCeltic (H)xG 1.69–1.96
  6. W3–130 MarHibernian (H)xG 2.82–0.50

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticRangers
Position1st2nd
Played3535
Won, drawn, lost26–⁠6–⁠326–⁠3–⁠6
Points84 (2.40 per game)81 (2.31 per game)
Expected Points per game2.362.33
Goals85–⁠2778–⁠25
xG per game2.65–⁠0.852.42–⁠0.70
Home: points, xG per game2.47, 2.95–⁠0.692.39, 2.65–⁠0.69
Away: points, xG per game2.33, 2.37–⁠1.012.24, 2.16–⁠0.72
ManagerBrendan Rodgers (35)Philippe Clement (27)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackCeltic2.33, 1stRangers2.19, 2ndDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.74, 1stRangers0.76, 2nd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayCeltic attack: 2.33Rangers attack: 2.192.332.19RangersCelticDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayCeltic defence: 0.74Rangers defence: 0.760.760.74

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticRangers
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+110%−35%+85%−54%
Counter-attacks+96%−30%+37%−17%
Set pieces+33%−34%+33%−45%
Penalties+112%−72%+126%−58%
Headers+61%−27%+45%−58%
Left side+91%−19%+74%−37%
Centre+74%−38%+61%−52%
Right side+114%−42%+74%−53%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdRangers concededLeft side+91%−53%Centre+74%−52%Right side+114%−37%Open play+110%−54%Counter-attacks+96%−17%Set pieces+33%−45%Headers+61%−58%

Rangers attacking

Rangers createdCeltic concededLeft side+74%−42%Centre+61%−38%Right side+74%−19%Open play+85%−35%Counter-attacks+37%−30%Set pieces+33%−34%Headers+45%−27%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticRangers

2.65xG2.42
0.85xG against0.70
69%Possession64%
19.8Shots21.7
7.9Shots against7.7
7.6Shots on target7.5
4.1Big chances3.6
44.6Touches in the opposition box35.8
649Passes538
85%Pass accuracy82%
9.5Corners7.9
79%Field tilt72%
75.2Final-third entries59.9
24.2Box entries19.3
10.1Passes per defensive action10.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level382.620.77
Ahead462.750.97
Behind52.080.40

Rangers

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level272.130.86
Ahead452.400.57
Behind182.880.79

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.360.0912–2
16–300.420.0813–2
31–450.360.1811–3
46–600.460.1415–5
61–750.310.169–5
76–900.740.2125–10

Rangers

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.250.128–7
16–300.420.1113–2
31–450.420.1216–6
46–600.360.157–4
61–750.390.0913–4
76–900.580.1121–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWHart 34Bain 1Johnston 30Ralston 5Carter-Vickers 22Nawrocki 6Welsh 4Scales 31Taylor 32Bernabei 3O'Riley 34Maeda 1McGregor 30Iwata 9Bernardo 11Hatate 9Turnbull 9Maeda 9Kühn 8Yang 7Furuhashi 28Idah 4Oh 3Palma 17Maeda 13Yang 34-3-3 in 34 of 35 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (34), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Rangers

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTButland 35Tavernier 35Goldson 30Souttar 23Balogun 13Davies 4Barisic 17Yilmaz 15Sterling 3Raskin 9Diomande 7Cifuentes 6Lundstram 28Cantwell 5Jack 4McCausland 12Wright 6Sterling 4Cantwell 16Lammers 6Lawrence 5Sima 15Silva 6Matondo 5Dessers 24Silva 4Danilo 44-2-3-1 in 27 of 35 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (27), 4-3-3 (6), 4-3-1-2 (2)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
7 April 2024Rangers3–3CelticxG 1.69–1.96
30 December 2023Celtic2–1RangersxG 0.64–0.97
3 September 2023Rangers0–1CelticxG 1.80–0.95
13 May 2023Rangers3–0CelticxG 1.57–1.34
8 April 2023Celtic3–2RangersxG 1.09–0.69
2 January 2023Rangers2–2CelticxG 2.00–1.17

15 league meetings since 2020/21: Celtic won 6, Rangers won 5, and 4 were drawn. Goals 23–22 and xG 1.28–1.16 per game.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Forrest4521500.900.31
Turnbull9676700.710.39
Idah4501720.970.10
Oh3610500.940.05

Rangers

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Danilo5529410.980.09
Dessers242,0491430.730.10
Tavernier353,1411790.470.35
Sima171,6031120.440.13

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.