Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Celtic 2–0 Kilmarnock

Saturday 7 January 2023, 15:00 · Celtic Park · Round 21 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Nick Walsh · Attendance 58,612

Celtic Jota 45', Taylor 51' (og)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

CelticKilmarnock
Goals20
xG3.480.08
Expected Points2.960.02

Celtic 98%Draw 2%Kilmarnock <1%

Most likely score 3–0, 24%. Final score 2–0, 17%.

Kilmarnock goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+1%7%17%1%2%2%13%1%9%24%21%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

012340153045607590HTGiakoumakis on for Furuhashi, Abada on for Jota, and O'Riley on for Mooy, 63'Forrest on for Maeda and Turnbull on for Hatate, 83'Doidge on for Vassell, Armstrong on for Robinson, and Lyons on for Power, 64'Murray on for Polworth, 75'McInroy on for McKenzie, 85'Jota 45'Taylor 51' (og)Celtic 3.48Kilmarnock 0.08012340153045607590HTGiakoumakis on for Furuhashi, Abada on for Jota, and O'Riley on for Mooy, 63'Forrest on for Maeda and Turnbull on for Hatate, 83'Doidge on for Vassell, Armstrong on for Robinson, and Lyons on for Power, 64'Murray on for Polworth, 75'McInroy on for McKenzie, 85'Jota 45'Taylor 51' (og)3.480.08CelticKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

CelticKilmarnock

3.48 +1.05xG0.08 −0.82
24 +5Shots2 −9
10 +2.5Shots on target0 −2.9
4 +0.6Big chances0 −1.2
44 +3Touches in the opposition box8 −11
79% +8Possession21% −26
741 +108Passes186 −164
89% +2Pass accuracy50% −18
92% +13Field tilt8% −40
114 +35Final-third entries16 −20
18 −6.9Box entries6 −3.1
6.4 −3.4Passes per defensive action27.4 +13.1
4 −4.0Corners3 −1.3
16 +3Tackles23 +7
5 −2.5Interceptions14 +2.9
21 +7Clearances18 −1
0 −1.7Saves8 +5.1
9 −2Fouls11 −2
1 −1.5Offsides0 −1.9

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Celtic

Giakoumakis 89', 0.42 xGMaeda 74', 0.38 xGO'Riley 90', 0.29 xGForrest 89', 0.24 xGForrest 89', 0.22 xGGiakoumakis 81', 0.14 xGJota 50', 0.10 xGO'Riley 82', 0.09 xGForrest 90+4', 0.09 xGJota 25', 0.08 xGMaeda 45+3', 0.08 xGGiakoumakis 77', 0.07 xGMaeda 54', 0.06 xGHatate 56', 0.06 xGMcGregor 90+1', 0.06 xGTurnbull 90+5', 0.06 xGBernabei 10', 0.05 xGHatate 68', 0.05 xGAbada 70', 0.04 xGGiakoumakis 82', 0.04 xGTurnbull 90', 0.04 xGGiakoumakis 78', 0.03 xGBernabei 90+2', 0.03 xGJota 45', 0.76 xG, goal34%1.18 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 1.18 xG, 1 goal47%1.62 xGCentral box: 10 shots, 1.62 xG, 0 goals5%0.18 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals14%0.50 xGEdge of the box: 10 shots, 0.50 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Taylor 37', 0.04 xGLyons 88', 0.04 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals50%0.04 xGCentral box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals50%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

CelticKilmarnock

2.02 16 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.04 1 shot, 0 goals
0.06 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
1.41 7 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.04 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
45 min (46%) · Celtic 0.89, Kilmarnock 0.04 xG
Celtic ahead
53 min (54%) · Celtic 2.59, Kilmarnock 0.04 xG

Line-ups

122042513424117838HartJohnstonCarter-VickersStarfeltBernabeiMooyMcGregorHatateJotaFuruhashiMaedaGoal63'83'63'63'83'Celtic 4-3-3Ange Postecoglou20219563373141623WalkerMayoWrightTaylorStokesChriseneMcKenziePolworthPowerRobinsonVassellOwn goal85'75'64'64'64'Kilmarnock 5-3-2Derek McInnes

Celtic substitutes

  • 63' O'Riley for Mooy
  • 63' Giakoumakis for Furuhashi
  • 63' Abada for Jota
  • 83' Turnbull for Hatate
  • 83' Forrest for Maeda

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 64' Lyons for Power
  • 64' Armstrong for Robinson
  • 64' Doidge for Vassell
  • 75' Murray for Polworth
  • 85' McInroy for McKenzie

Players

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HartGK900.000.0000.0100
JohnstonRB900.000.1330.0432
Carter-VickersCB900.000.0110.0945
StarfeltCB900.000.1800.392411
BernabeiLB900.080.1300.2095
MooyCM630.000.040−0.0634
McGregorCM900.060.0320.0113
HatateCM830.110.2240.1970
JotaRW6310.940.0800.1783
FuruhashiST630.000.0100.1321
MaedaLW8310.520.4310.27106
O'RileyMF270.370.1530.0000
GiakoumakisFW270.700.0110.1412
AbadaFW270.040.0410.1030
TurnbullMF70.100.0910.2430
ForrestFW70.550.0720.0200

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
WalkerGK900.000.0000.0231
MayoRWB900.000.0600.0948
WrightCB900.000.0000.0116
TaylorCB900.040.0200.03210
StokesCB900.000.0000.0013
ChriseneLWB900.000.0100.0026
McKenzieCM850.000.010−0.0202
PolworthCM750.000.0210.0336
PowerCM640.000.0100.0224
RobinsonST640.000.0100.0222
VassellST640.000.0000.0521
LyonsMF260.040.000−0.0204
ArmstrongMF260.000.0000.0110
DoidgeFW260.000.000−0.0102
MurrayMF150.000.0510.0323
McInroyMF50.000.0000.0001

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Celtic

Johnston and Bernabei: 6 passesBernabei and Jota: 6 passesCarter-Vickers and McGregor: 7 passesJohnston and Hatate: 8 passesStarfelt and Mooy: 8 passesCarter-Vickers and Jota: 8 passesJohnston and McGregor: 9 passesStarfelt and McGregor: 9 passesStarfelt and Maeda: 9 passesMooy and Hatate: 9 passesMooy and Jota: 9 passesHart and Carter-Vickers: 10 passesJohnston and Mooy: 10 passesCarter-Vickers and Bernabei: 10 passesHatate and Maeda: 10 passesHart and Starfelt: 11 passesBernabei and McGregor: 15 passesBernabei and Mooy: 16 passesJohnston and Carter-Vickers: 18 passesJohnston and Jota: 24 passesStarfelt and Hatate: 25 passesBernabei and Maeda: 29 passesStarfelt and Carter-Vickers: 34 passesBernabei and Hatate: 37 passesStarfelt and Bernabei: 67 passesHart: 15 completed passesJohnston: 46 completed passesStarfelt: 97 completed passesCarter-Vickers: 53 completed passesBernabei: 93 completed passesMooy: 33 completed passesHatate: 42 completed passesMcGregor: 31 completed passesJota: 26 completed passesFuruhashi: 5 completed passesMaeda: 28 completed passes124202513414217838HartJohnstonStarfeltCarter-VickersBernabeiMooyHatateMcGregorJotaFuruhashiMaedaStarters until 63' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

Kilmarnock

Stokes and Chrisene: 3 passesStokes and Power: 3 passesPower and Polworth: 3 passesPolworth and Robinson: 3 passesPolworth and Vassell: 3 passesMayo and Robinson: 4 passesMayo and Vassell: 4 passesChrisene and Power: 4 passesPower and Robinson: 4 passesRobinson and Vassell: 4 passesMayo and Polworth: 5 passesWalker and Mayo: 6 passesWright and Power: 7 passesWalker: 7 completed passesMayo: 10 completed passesWright: 7 completed passesTaylor: 4 completed passesStokes: 6 completed passesChrisene: 6 completed passesPower: 15 completed passesMcKenzie: 5 completed passesPolworth: 10 completed passesRobinson: 8 completed passesVassell: 3 completed passes20219563347311623WalkerMayoWrightTaylorStokesChrisenePowerMcKenziePolworthRobinsonVassellStarters until 64' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Celtic

FromToPasses
StarfeltBernabei53
Carter-VickersStarfelt34
BernabeiStarfelt32
BernabeiHatate28
BernabeiMaeda21

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
WalkerMayo6
MayoVassell4
PowerRobinson4
WrightPower4
WalkerDoidge4

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Celtic

4+1.35+1.59+0.67+0.76+1.24−1.23−0.63−1.04−2.613+5.52−2.81−3.20−3.57+1.014+6.72−2.54+1.11−2.06+2.77+2.02−1.34+2.42−0.15+2.76+3.71−0.60−0.70−0.82+0.910.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 20 matches

Kilmarnock

50.013+6.221+8.52−5.23−2.415+8.118+11.76−0.210+3.54−3.86−0.46+0.540.01−4.83−2.22−3.03−1.30−2.50−4.20−4.23+0.52+0.21+0.30−2.01−1.93+1.60−0.80−0.50−0.52+1.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 20 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Celtic

0.010.020.010.030.020.060.020.030.030.050.070.080.020.110.040.250.180.090.06−0.08−0.020.170.020.010.220.45LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.020.010.010.010.010.020.010.020.010.010.01−0.040.03−0.010.020.03−0.02−0.010.09LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.23AttackCeltic2.28 → 2.31Kilmarnock1.00 → 0.96Defence (lower is better)Celtic0.67 → 0.65Kilmarnock1.29 → 1.33

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Celtic
Title94%95%+1
Kilmarnock
Top six5%4%−1
11th24%25%+1
Bottom15%16%+1
Ross County
11th20%21%+1
Bottom62%61%−1
Rangers
Title6%5%−1

From the forecast before the match (7 January 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

CelticKilmarnock
Expected goals2.900.49
Win86%4%
Expected Points2.680.21
Clean sheet61%6%

Celtic 86%Draw 11%Kilmarnock 4%

Most likely score 2–0, 14%. Both sides score 37%.

Kilmarnock goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+4%1%10%5%1%7%2%7%2%10%5%1%6%3%5%2%14%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 7 January 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowCeltic winDrawKilmarnock win
Celtic
Title94%95%91%88%
Kilmarnock
Top six5%4%9%14%
11th24%25%22%12%
Bottom15%16%10%6%
Ross County
11th20%21%17%19%
Bottom62%61%66%69%
Rangers
Title6%5%9%12%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Celtic

  1. D2–22 JanRangers (A)xG 1.17–2.00
  2. W4–028 DecHibernian (A)xG 2.61–0.55
  3. W4–124 DecSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.89–1.03
  4. W2–121 DecLivingston (H)xG 1.96–0.28
  5. W1–017 DecAberdeen (A)xG 2.36–0.06
  6. W2–112 NovRoss County (H)xG 1.88–0.84

Kilmarnock

  1. D0–02 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.70–0.35
  2. W2–128 DecAberdeen (H)xG 1.91–0.42
  3. D2–223 DecMotherwell (A)xG 0.34–1.33
  4. L1–317 DecHearts (A)xG 1.09–2.40
  5. W1–012 NovHibernian (H)xG 0.96–0.85
  6. L0–49 NovDundee United (A)xG 0.85–0.83

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticKilmarnock
Position1st9th
Played2020
Won, drawn, lost18–⁠1–⁠15–⁠5–⁠10
Points55 (2.75 per game)20 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game2.381.19
Goals63–⁠1717–⁠33
xG per game2.43–⁠0.700.90–⁠1.16
Home: points, xG per game3.00, 2.49–⁠0.591.80, 1.21–⁠1.05
Away: points, xG per game2.55, 2.39–⁠0.800.20, 0.58–⁠1.27
ManagerAnge Postecoglou (58)Derek McInnes (20)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.23AttackCeltic2.28, 1stKilmarnock1.00, 8thDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.67, 1stKilmarnock1.29, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctNovDecJanCeltic attack: 2.28Kilmarnock attack: 1.002.281.00KilmarnockCelticDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctNovDecJanCeltic defence: 0.67Kilmarnock defence: 1.291.290.67

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+129%−60%−37%−17%
Counter-attacks+124%−74%−46%−53%
Set pieces+36%−39%+18%+23%
Penalties−54%+15%−77%−31%
Headers+69%−38%+16%−15%
Left side+50%−51%−10%−8%
Centre+160%−51%−33%−18%
Right side+80%−67%−26%+6%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+50%+6%Centre+160%−18%Right side+80%−8%Open play+129%−17%Counter-attacks+124%−53%Set pieces+36%+23%Headers+69%−15%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdCeltic concededLeft side−10%−67%Centre−33%−51%Right side−26%−51%Open play−37%−60%Counter-attacks−46%−74%Set pieces+18%−39%Headers+16%−38%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticKilmarnock

2.43xG0.90
0.70xG against1.16
70%Possession47%
19.2Shots11.2
6.9Shots against12.3
7.5Shots on target2.9
3.4Big chances1.2
41.3Touches in the opposition box18.9
633Passes350
86%Pass accuracy67%
8.0Corners4.3
79%Field tilt48%
79.0Final-third entries35.7
24.9Box entries9.1
9.8Passes per defensive action14.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level282.600.59
Ahead572.370.75
Behind52.140.83

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level351.080.92
Ahead180.861.12
Behind370.741.40

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.420.0913–1
16–300.260.075–0
31–450.430.1612–4
46–600.400.1910–7
61–750.260.126–2
76–900.650.0817–3

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.162–5
16–300.140.222–8
31–450.170.203–5
46–600.270.134–2
61–750.100.184–5
76–900.110.272–8

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWHart 20Ralston 9Juranovic 8Hatate 2Carter-Vickers 18Welsh 4Jenz 10Starfelt 8Taylor 15Bernabei 5O'Riley 19Mooy 7McGregor 13Haksabanovic 1Hatate 14Turnbull 6Abada 7Maeda 5Forrest 4Furuhashi 16Giakoumakis 4Jota 9Maeda 7Haksabanovic 34-3-3 in 18 of 20 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (18), 4-2-3-1 (2)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTWalker 11Hemming 9Alebiosu 9Mayo 7Armstrong 2Taylor 14Wright 11Mayo 8Stokes 4Chrisene 6McInroy 6Polworth 2Armstrong 7McKenzie 4Chrisene 3Power 16Armstrong 4Alston 4Donnelly 7Polworth 5Alebiosu 1Jones 6McKenzie 5Taylor 2Lafferty 8Cameron 5Armstrong 2Doidge 6Shaw 5Wright 34-4-2 in 4 of 20 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (4), 3-4-2-1 (4), 4-2-3-1 (3), 3-4-3 (2), 5-3-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-3-3-1 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
14 August 2022Kilmarnock0–5CelticxG 0.69–3.34
2 February 2021Kilmarnock0–4CelticxG 1.87–2.13
13 December 2020Celtic2–0KilmarnockxG 1.83–0.79
9 August 2020Kilmarnock1–1CelticxG 1.06–0.74

4 league meetings since 2020/21: Celtic won 3, Kilmarnock won 0, and 1 was a draw. Goals 12–1 and xG 2.01–1.10 per game.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Abada7857730.640.48
Furuhashi161,1681510.880.04
Giakoumakis4658610.810.09
Jota121,052560.320.44

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong151,383530.200.20
Shaw7628000.250.02
Stokes5456100.210.05
Jones9704000.100.12

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.