Matches › 2022/23

St. Johnstone 1–0 Kilmarnock

Saturday 29 October 2022, 15:00 · McDiarmid Park · Round 13 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Craig Napier · Attendance 3,995

St. Johnstone Taylor 4' (og)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Measure	St. Johnstone	Kilmarnock
Goals	1	0
xG	0.39	0.38
Expected Points	1.22	1.21

St. Johnstone 22%Draw 57%Kilmarnock 22%

Most likely score 0–0, 48%. Final score 1–0, 17%.

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock

0.39 −0.34xG0.38 −0.51

0.13 −0.70xG on target0.05 −0.56

8 −1.2Shots7 −4.3

2 −0.9Shots on target2 −1.1

2 +0.8Big chances0 −1.2

9 −6Touches in the opposition box15 −2

38% −3Possession62% +18

285 −36Passes464 +140

64% −1Pass accuracy75% +8

23% −10Field tilt77% +33

25 0Final-third entries51 +19

6 −1.2Box entries10 +0.8

14.5 −2Passes per defensive action9.2 −6

3 +0.1Corners6 +1.0

16 −2Tackles22 +6

11 0Interceptions9 −3

33 +7Clearances15 −3

2 −0.4Saves2 −1.8

15 +3Fouls10 −4

2 +0.6Offsides1 −1.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Zones Shots

St. Johnstone

Kilmarnock

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock

0.37 7 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.09 4 shots, 0 goals

0.02 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.29 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

1–0

Level: 4 min (4%) · St. Johnstone 0.00, Kilmarnock 0.00 xG
St. Johnstone ahead: 92 min (96%) · St. Johnstone 0.39, Kilmarnock 0.38 xG

Line-ups

St. Johnstone substitutes

65' McLennan for Clark · yellow card 89'
74' Wotherspoon for Carey
90+2' Bair for May · yellow card 90+5'

Kilmarnock substitutes

46' Donnelly for Mayo · yellow card 90+4'
75' Murray for McKenzie
75' Alebiosu for McInroy
75' Shaw for Jones
90' Wales for Taylor

Players

St. Johnstone

Player	Pos	Min	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Matthews	GK	90	0.00	0.00	0	0.04	4	5
Mitchell	CB	90	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	1	11
Gordon	CB	90	0.00	0.00	0	0.02	2	7
Considine	CB	90	0.00	0.00	0	0.02	0	7
Wright	RWB	90	0.07	0.08	1	0.19	7	3
Hallberg	CM	90	0.00	0.04	3	−0.01	1	2
McGowan	CM	90	0.00	0.01	0	0.01	2	5
Brown	LWB	90	0.00	0.00	0	0.02	0	5
Carey	AM	74	0.08	0.01	0	0.02	2	4
Clark	ST	65	0.00	0.03	1	0.01	0	2
May	ST	90	0.10	0.03	1	0.10	12	3
McLennan	MF	25	0.12	0.02	0	0.04	1	4
Wotherspoon	MF	16	0.00	0.00	0	0.01	1	2
Bair	FW	0	0.03	0.00	0	0.08	2	0

Kilmarnock

Player	Pos	Min	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Hemming	GK	90	0.00	0.00	0	0.04	3	1
Wright	CB	90	0.00	0.01	0	0.03	4	7
Taylor	CB	90	0.00	0.01	0	0.08	10	8
Stokes	CB	90	0.00	0.02	1	0.12	12	5
Mayo	RWB	46	0.00	0.00	0	−0.01	0	4
Power	CM	90	0.00	0.05	2	0.09	5	3
McInroy	LWB	75	0.13	0.04	0	0.03	9	5
McKenzie	RW	75	0.00	0.03	1	0.04	2	4
Armstrong	AM	90	0.00	0.23	0	0.40	8	2
Jones	LW	75	0.04	0.17	1	0.08	5	0
Cameron	ST	90	0.22	0.01	0	−0.11	3	2
Donnelly	MF	44	0.00	0.02	0	0.04	3	6
Murray	MF	15	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	1	1
Alebiosu	MF	15	0.00	0.00	0	0.01	1	1
Shaw	FW	15	0.00	0.00	0	−0.01	0	0
Wales	FW	0	0.00	0.00	0	–	–	0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Johnstone

Kilmarnock

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Johnstone

From	To	Passes
Brown	May	9
Considine	Carey	7
McGowan	Wright	6
Considine	Brown	5
Carey	Brown	5

Kilmarnock

From	To	Passes
Stokes	McInroy	12
Taylor	Stokes	10
Jones	McInroy	9
Power	Stokes	9
McInroy	Jones	9

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Johnstone

Against its average of 12 matches

Kilmarnock

Against its average of 12 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Johnstone

Kilmarnock

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

Chance	Before	With this result	Change
St. Johnstone
Top six	12%	19%	+7
11th	18%	12%	−6
Bottom	10%	6%	−4
Kilmarnock
Top six	15%	9%	−6
11th	16%	21%	+5
Bottom	10%	14%	+4

From the forecast before the match (29 October 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Measure	St. Johnstone	Kilmarnock
Expected goals	1.12	0.99
Win	38%	31%
Expected Points	1.44	1.25
Clean sheet	37%	33%

St. Johnstone 38%Draw 31%Kilmarnock 31%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 43%.

From the forecast as it stood on 29 October 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

Chance	Now	St. Johnstone win	Draw	Kilmarnock win
St. Johnstone
Top six	12%	19%	9%	6%
11th	18%	12%	20%	23%
Bottom	10%	6%	11%	15%
Kilmarnock
Top six	15%	9%	15%	23%
11th	16%	21%	17%	11%
Bottom	10%	14%	9%	5%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Johnstone

Kilmarnock

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Measure	St. Johnstone	Kilmarnock
Position	9th	10th
Played	12	12
Won, drawn, lost	4–⁠1–⁠7	3–⁠3–⁠6
Points	13 (1.08 per game)	12 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game	0.98	1.16
Goals	13–⁠17	9–⁠19
xG per game	0.73–⁠1.25	0.89–⁠1.24
Home: points, xG per game	0.80, 0.80–⁠0.94	1.83, 1.25–⁠1.19
Away: points, xG per game	1.29, 0.69–⁠1.47	0.17, 0.53–⁠1.28
Manager	Callum Davidson (88)	Derek McInnes (12)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

This season

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Chances	St. Johnstone		Kilmarnock
Chances	Created	Conceded	Created	Conceded
Open play	−45%	+15%	−32%	−12%
Counter-attacks	−51%	−100%	−54%	−35%
Set pieces	−29%	−24%	+15%	+60%
Penalties	−39%	−39%	−100%	−39%
Headers	−53%	+9%	−8%	−12%
Left side	−48%	−6%	−11%	−3%
Centre	−43%	−3%	−31%	−1%
Right side	−33%	+19%	−23%	+11%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Johnstone attacking

St. Johnstone createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−48%+11%Centre−43%−1%Right side−33%−3%Open play−45%−12%Counter-attacks−51%−35%Set pieces−29%+60%Headers−53%−12%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Johnstone concededLeft side−11%+19%Centre−31%−3%Right side−23%−6%Open play−32%+15%Counter-attacks−54%−100%Set pieces+15%−24%Headers−8%+9%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock

0.73xG0.89

1.25xG against1.24

41%Possession44%

9.2Shots11.3

15.1Shots against13.6

2.9Shots on target3.1

1.2Big chances1.2

14.8Touches in the opposition box16.6

321Passes324

64%Pass accuracy67%

2.9Corners5.0

33%Field tilt44%

24.6Final-third entries32.0

7.2Box entries9.2

16.0Passes per defensive action14.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Johnstone

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	42	0.75	1.05
Ahead	19	0.79	1.19
Behind	29	0.67	1.57

Kilmarnock

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	36	1.04	1.09
Ahead	17	0.97	0.83
Behind	37	0.70	1.58

xG by period

St. Johnstone

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.08	0.19	2–1
16–30	0.17	0.08	2–1
31–45	0.05	0.19	1–5
46–60	0.10	0.17	1–2
61–75	0.07	0.26	2–1
76–90	0.26	0.34	5–7

Kilmarnock

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.09	0.22	1–3
16–30	0.15	0.19	2–3
31–45	0.19	0.25	0–4
46–60	0.26	0.14	3–1
61–75	0.10	0.16	1–2
76–90	0.10	0.29	2–6

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Johnstone

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (6), 5-3-2 (5), 3-4-1-2 (1)

Kilmarnock

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (4), 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 5-3-2 (2), 3-5-1-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

Date	Home	Score	Away	xG
5 October 2022	Kilmarnock	2–1	St. Johnstone	xG 1.28–0.87
30 January 2021	Kilmarnock	2–3	St. Johnstone	xG 1.17–2.14
6 November 2020	St. Johnstone	1–0	Kilmarnock	xG 0.61–0.46
15 August 2020	Kilmarnock	1–2	St. Johnstone	xG 0.86–1.65

4 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Johnstone won 3, Kilmarnock won 1, and 0 were drawn. Goals 7–5 and xG 1.32–0.94 per game.

Key players

St. Johnstone

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Clark	6	507	2	0	0.34	0.01
Carey	6	512	2	0	0.21	0.06
May	6	625	3	3	0.20	0.05
Murphy	10	813	1	0	0.09	0.06

Kilmarnock

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Armstrong	7	675	4	0	0.19	0.18
Shaw	7	602	0	0	0.26	0.02
Lafferty	8	576	1	0	0.18	0.01
Polworth	6	547	0	2	0.06	0.11

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.