Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Kilmarnock 2–1 St. Johnstone

Wednesday 5 October 2022, 19:45 · Rugby Park · Round 7 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Alan James Muir · Attendance 4,463

Kilmarnock Armstrong 11', 46'

St. Johnstone Bair 90+1'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone
Goals21
xG1.280.87
Expected Points1.681.00

Kilmarnock 46%Draw 31%St. Johnstone 23%

Most likely score 1–1, 17%. Final score 2–1, 10%.

St. Johnstone goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+10%8%4%6%2%10%10%5%1%3%3%1%16%17%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTLyons on for Alston and Doidge on for Lafferty, 65'Shaw on for Jones, 77'Wright on for Armstrong, 89'Gallacher on for Mitchell and Murphy on for May, 57'Bair on for Wright and Kucheriavyi on for Crawford, 72'O'Halloran on for McGowan, 80'Armstrong 11'Armstrong 46'Bair 90+1'Kilmarnock 1.28St. Johnstone 0.8700.511.50153045607590HTLyons on for Alston and Doidge on for Lafferty, 65'Shaw on for Jones, 77'Wright on for Armstrong, 89'Gallacher on for Mitchell and Murphy on for May, 57'Bair on for Wright and Kucheriavyi on for Crawford, 72'O'Halloran on for McGowan, 80'Armstrong 11'Armstrong 46'Bair 90+1'1.280.87KilmarnockSt. Johnstone

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone

1.28 +0.59xG0.87 +0.09
1.48 +1.07xG on target1.09 +0.23
11 +0.2Shots15 +6.2
2 −0.4Shots on target5 +2.6
2 +1.4Big chances0 −1.1
16 +5Touches in the opposition box21 +6
40% −4Possession60% +20
298 −22Passes445 +130
61% −7Pass accuracy68% +4
56% +17Field tilt44% +13
23 −8Final-third entries41 +17
8 −0.9Box entries7 −0.8
13.4 −2Passes per defensive action8.2 −9
5 +0.5Corners5 +1.9
13 −4Tackles19 +2
18 +7Interceptions3 −9
22 +4Clearances19 −8
4 +0.1Saves0 −2.4
16 +3Fouls16 +5
4 +2.1Offsides1 −0.9

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Stokes 46', 0.24 xGArmstrong 61', 0.11 xGAlston 6', 0.10 xGMcKenzie 41', 0.10 xGAlston 38', 0.08 xGJones 53', 0.05 xGMcKenzie 54', 0.05 xGMayo 62', 0.05 xGPower 46', 0.04 xGArmstrong 46', 0.45 xG, goalArmstrong 11', 0.02 xG, goal35%0.45 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.45 xG, 1 goal38%0.48 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.48 xG, 0 goals4%0.05 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals22%0.28 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.28 xG, 0 goals2%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 1 goal

St. Johnstone

Clark 26', 0.16 xGCrawford 9', 0.13 xGClark 9', 0.11 xGMay 25', 0.09 xGCrawford 26', 0.06 xGWright 66', 0.05 xGKucheriavyi 90+5', 0.05 xGMurphy 85', 0.04 xGBrown 12', 0.03 xGMay 12', 0.03 xGMitchell 26', 0.02 xGMay 56', 0.02 xGHallberg 85', 0.02 xGGordon 33', 0.01 xGBair 90+1', 0.05 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals53%0.47 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.47 xG, 1 goal19%0.17 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals26%0.23 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone

1.25 10 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.64 11 shots, 1 goal
0.02 1 shot, 1 goalSet pieces0.24 4 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
11 min (12%) · Kilmarnock 0.12, St. Johnstone 0.24 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
84 min (88%) · Kilmarnock 1.15, St. Johnstone 0.64 xG

Line-ups

125633481171028HemmingMayoTaylorStokesChrisenePowerAlstonArmstrongMcKenzieJonesLaffertyGoalGoal65'89'77'65'Kilmarnock 4-2-3-1Derek McInnes1144652221321737MatthewsWrightConsidineGordonMitchellBrownHallbergMcGowanCrawfordMayClarkYellow cardYellow cardYellow card72'57'80'72'57'St. Johnstone 5-3-2Callum Davidson

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 65' Lyons for Alston
  • 65' Doidge for Lafferty
  • 77' Shaw for Jones
  • 89' Wright for Armstrong

St. Johnstone substitutes

  • 57' Murphy for May
  • 57' Gallacher for Mitchell
  • 72' Kucheriavyi for Crawford
  • 72' Bair for Wright · goal 90+1'
  • 80' O'Halloran for McGowan

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HemmingGK900.000.0100.0680
MayoRB900.050.0300.0575
TaylorCB900.000.0200.03411
StokesCB900.240.0300.06610
ChriseneLB900.000.0910.2885
PowerDM900.040.010−0.0117
AlstonDM650.180.010−0.0211
ArmstrongRW8920.580.0730.1036
McKenzieAM900.140.010−0.0232
JonesLW770.050.0610.1541
LaffertyST650.000.011−0.0112
LyonsMF250.000.000−0.0102
DoidgeFW250.000.0100.0012
ShawFW130.000.000−0.0102
WrightDF10.000.0000.0001

St. Johnstone

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MatthewsGK900.000.0000.0320
WrightRWB720.050.0710.0874
ConsidineCB900.000.0310.15125
Gordon CB900.010.0100.0467
Mitchell CB570.020.0000.0118
BrownLWB900.030.031−0.0332
HallbergCM900.020.0830.0653
McGowan CM800.000.0200.11510
CrawfordCM720.190.1720.0010
MayST570.140.0000.0331
ClarkST900.260.011−0.0310
MurphyMF330.040.0910.0730
GallacherMF330.000.0100.0113
KucheriavyiMF180.050.0200.0111
BairFW1810.050.0100.0100
O'HalloranFW100.000.0210.0001

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Hemming and Mayo: 3 passesMayo and Stokes: 3 passesMayo and Power: 3 passesStokes and Armstrong: 3 passesPower and Alston: 3 passesPower and Jones: 3 passesAlston and Armstrong: 3 passesAlston and Jones: 3 passesAlston and Lafferty: 3 passesArmstrong and Lafferty: 3 passesMcKenzie and Lafferty: 3 passesJones and Lafferty: 3 passesTaylor and Power: 4 passesStokes and Power: 4 passesStokes and McKenzie: 4 passesChrisene and Alston: 4 passesChrisene and Armstrong: 4 passesChrisene and McKenzie: 4 passesChrisene and Lafferty: 4 passesAlston and McKenzie: 4 passesMayo and Lafferty: 5 passesChrisene and Power: 9 passesMayo and Armstrong: 12 passesStokes and Chrisene: 14 passesChrisene and Jones: 19 passesHemming: 6 completed passesMayo: 18 completed passesTaylor: 7 completed passesStokes: 20 completed passesChrisene: 34 completed passesPower: 15 completed passesAlston: 12 completed passesArmstrong: 17 completed passesMcKenzie: 12 completed passesJones: 12 completed passesLafferty: 11 completed passes125633481171028HemmingMayoTaylorStokesChrisenePowerAlstonArmstrongMcKenzieJonesLaffertyStarters until 65' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

St. Johnstone

Mitchell and Hallberg: 3 passesMitchell and Clark: 3 passesGordon and Hallberg: 3 passesGordon and May: 3 passesMatthews and Mitchell: 4 passesMatthews and Gordon: 4 passesMitchell and Crawford: 4 passesBrown and Crawford: 4 passesMcGowan and Crawford: 4 passesWright and McGowan: 5 passesMitchell and Gordon: 5 passesConsidine and Gordon: 5 passesBrown and Hallberg: 5 passesHallberg and Crawford: 5 passesCrawford and Clark: 5 passesMay and Clark: 5 passesWright and Crawford: 6 passesWright and Clark: 6 passesConsidine and Brown: 6 passesWright and Mitchell: 7 passesConsidine and McGowan: 7 passesConsidine and Hallberg: 9 passesConsidine and Crawford: 9 passesMatthews and Considine: 11 passesConsidine and May: 11 passesMatthews: 10 completed passesWright: 17 completed passesMitchell: 17 completed passesConsidine: 33 completed passesGordon: 12 completed passesBrown: 15 completed passesMcGowan: 13 completed passesHallberg: 17 completed passesCrawford: 19 completed passesMay: 9 completed passesClark: 11 completed passes1145462132221737MatthewsWrightMitchellConsidineGordonBrownMcGowanHallbergCrawfordMayClarkStarters until 57' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
ChriseneJones14
StokesChrisene11
MayoArmstrong9
ChrisenePower7
PowerStokes7

St. Johnstone

FromToPasses
ConsidineHallberg10
GordonConsidine8
ConsidineMatthews7
BrownConsidine7
HallbergConsidine7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

7+1.57+0.116+1.65−3.510+4.84−2.511+4.08+2.180.07+0.56+1.25+1.24−0.511+6.82−3.12−1.62−0.47+3.56+1.60−2.81−0.10−0.65+3.53+0.61−0.21+0.20−0.23+2.61+0.40−6.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 8 matches

St. Johnstone

9+3.510+1.54−3.24−3.16−1.87−1.56−2.27−1.89+1.410+4.18+3.25+1.05−1.16−2.07+2.62−2.94+1.64+1.55+1.43+0.83+2.01+0.810.01−0.210.00−0.11+0.80−0.10−0.410−6.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 8 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.020.020.010.020.010.010.01−0.010.020.030.030.030.020.030.030.02−0.040.080.050.28LessMore

St. Johnstone

0.010.020.020.020.010.010.010.050.040.030.040.050.06−0.010.010.030.04−0.06−0.010.090.10LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.20AttackKilmarnock0.92 → 0.94St. Johnstone0.87 → 0.87Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.37 → 1.36St. Johnstone1.33 → 1.34

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six6%9%+3
11th21%18%−3
Bottom19%13%−6
St. Johnstone
Top six13%9%−4
11th13%17%+4
Bottom6%9%+3
Dundee United
11th28%28%0
Bottom33%35%+2

From the forecast before the match (5 October 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone
Expected goals1.210.91
Win42%27%
Expected Points1.571.12
Clean sheet40%30%

Kilmarnock 42%Draw 31%St. Johnstone 27%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 43%.

St. Johnstone goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+5%2%6%2%9%8%4%1%4%3%1%1%1%13%10%14%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 5 October 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawSt. Johnstone win
Kilmarnock
Top six6%9%5%3%
11th21%18%22%25%
Bottom19%13%21%26%
St. Johnstone
Top six13%9%13%19%
11th13%17%13%8%
Bottom6%9%6%3%
Dundee United
11th28%28%27%30%
Bottom33%35%34%31%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L1–41 OctAberdeen (A)xG 0.47–2.33
  2. L0–117 SepLivingston (A)xG 0.11–0.83
  3. L0–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.39–1.44
  4. W2–127 AugMotherwell (H)xG 1.52–0.70
  5. L0–120 AugRoss County (A)xG 0.70–0.65
  6. L0–514 AugCeltic (H)xG 0.69–3.34

St. Johnstone

  1. W2–11 OctDundee United (A)xG 0.72–1.30
  2. D0–017 SepRoss County (H)xG 0.82–0.39
  3. W3–03 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.25–0.81
  4. L2–328 AugHearts (A)xG 0.77–2.74
  5. L0–120 AugAberdeen (H)xG 0.34–1.05
  6. L0–413 AugRangers (A)xG 0.33–2.32

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone
Position11th9th
Played88
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠1–⁠63–⁠1–⁠4
Points4 (0.50 per game)10 (1.25 per game)
Expected Points per game0.891.04
Goals4–⁠169–⁠11
xG per game0.69–⁠1.430.78–⁠1.26
Home: points, xG per game1.33, 1.15–⁠1.471.00, 0.89–⁠0.76
Away: points, xG per game0.00, 0.41–⁠1.401.50, 0.67–⁠1.76
ManagerDerek McInnes (8)Callum Davidson (84)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.20AttackKilmarnock0.92, 10thSt. Johnstone0.87, 11thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.37, 10thSt. Johnstone1.33, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctKilmarnock attack: 0.92St. Johnstone attack: 0.870.920.87St. JohnstoneKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctKilmarnock defence: 1.37St. Johnstone defence: 1.331.371.33

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−51%−4%−47%+10%
Counter-attacks−49%−35%−46%−100%
Set pieces−13%+76%−26%−24%
Penalties−100%−18%−18%−18%
Headers−34%−23%−54%+3%
Left side−20%−5%−50%−14%
Centre−51%+19%−46%−28%
Right side−50%+20%−28%+55%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Johnstone concededLeft side−20%+55%Centre−51%−28%Right side−50%−14%Open play−51%+10%Counter-attacks−49%−100%Set pieces−13%−24%Headers−34%+3%

St. Johnstone attacking

St. Johnstone createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−50%+20%Centre−46%+19%Right side−28%−5%Open play−47%−4%Counter-attacks−46%−35%Set pieces−26%+76%Headers−54%−23%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone

0.69xG0.78
1.43xG against1.26
44%Possession40%
10.8Shots8.8
14.1Shots against16.2
2.4Shots on target2.4
0.6Big chances1.1
11.0Touches in the opposition box15.0
320Passes315
68%Pass accuracy65%
4.5Corners3.1
39%Field tilt31%
31.2Final-third entries24.4
8.9Box entries7.8
15.3Passes per defensive action17.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level330.631.23
Ahead21.160.51
Behind550.701.58

St. Johnstone

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level470.750.97
Ahead280.821.22
Behind160.792.18

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.050.240–3
16–300.110.201–3
31–450.180.290–4
46–600.160.160–1
61–750.050.181–1
76–900.130.362–4

St. Johnstone

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.070.142–0
16–300.210.112–1
31–450.060.231–2
46–600.140.121–1
61–750.070.221–1
76–900.220.452–6

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTWalker 6Hemming 2Wright 6Shaw 2Jones 1Taylor 7Dorsett 2Mayo 6Alebiosu 7Mayo 1Power 8Lyons 1Armstrong 1Polworth 4Donnelly 2Chrisene 3McInroy 2Polworth 1McKenzie 5Armstrong 2Chrisene 1Shaw 3Lafferty 2McInroy 1Lafferty 3Shaw 2Doidge 23-4-2-1 in 2 of 8 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 5-3-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

St. Johnstone

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTMatthews 8McGowan 6Mitchell 8Gordon 2Considine 8Wright 8Hallberg 6Brown 1McGowan 2Murphy 2MacPherson 2Montgomery 6Brown 1Phillips 1Carey 5Hallberg 2Murphy 6Clark 3May 4Bair 43-4-2-1 in 5 of 8 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (5), 5-3-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
30 January 2021Kilmarnock2–3St. JohnstonexG 1.17–2.14
6 November 2020St. Johnstone1–0KilmarnockxG 0.61–0.46
15 August 2020Kilmarnock1–2St. JohnstonexG 0.86–1.65

3 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 0, St. Johnstone won 3, and 0 were drawn. Goals 3–6 and xG 0.83–1.47 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shaw7565000.270.02
Polworth6531020.060.11
Power8648000.030.13
Taylor7551300.070.01

St. Johnstone

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Carey6512200.210.06
Murphy8613100.100.04
Wright8708100.100.04
Considine8720110.070.01

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.