Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Kilmarnock 1–1 St. Johnstone

Saturday 18 March 2023, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 29 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Chris Graham · Attendance 4,889

Kilmarnock Wright 38'

St. Johnstone Wright 70'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone
Goals11
xG1.310.57
Expected Points1.980.72

Kilmarnock 56%Draw 30%St. Johnstone 14%

Most likely score 1–0, 21%. Final score 1–1, 14%.

St. Johnstone goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+13%7%2%14%3%14%9%3%5%3%1%21%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTRobinson on for Doidge, 76'Power on for Donnelly and Murray on for Jones, 85'McLennan on for Brown, 40'Wotherspoon on for Carey and Rudden on for Bair, 62'Wright 38'Wright 70'Kilmarnock 1.31St. Johnstone 0.5700.511.50153045607590HTRobinson on for Doidge, 76'Power on for Donnelly and Murray on for Jones, 85'McLennan on for Brown, 40'Wotherspoon on for Carey and Rudden on for Bair, 62'Wright 38'Wright 70'1.310.57KilmarnockSt. Johnstone

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone

1.31 +0.37xG0.57 −0.34
1.06 +0.38xG on target0.36 −0.56
14 +2.9Shots9 −0.9
4 +1.0Shots on target2 −1.0
2 +0.6Big chances0 −1.5
18 −2Touches in the opposition box10 −5
50% +6Possession50% +8
269 −61Passes291 −35
65% 0Pass accuracy57% −10
47% +4Field tilt53% +16
37 +3Final-third entries21 −7
9 −0.2Box entries5 −2.7
11.1 −4Passes per defensive action8.5 −10
9 +4.7Corners5 +1.5
12 −4Tackles9 −8
13 +2Interceptions5 −6
27 +8Clearances40 +15
1 −2.5Saves4 +1.2
10 −2Fouls21 +10
3 +1.2Offsides0 −1.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Armstrong 28', 0.25 xGMayo 19', 0.13 xGMayo 4', 0.10 xGMayo 10', 0.10 xGArmstrong 8', 0.08 xGDoidge 6', 0.05 xGWright 66', 0.04 xGWright 36', 0.03 xGMurray 90', 0.03 xGArmstrong 9', 0.02 xGMcKenzie 22', 0.02 xGJones 59', 0.02 xGArmstrong 81', 0.01 xGWright 38', 0.42 xG, goal32%0.42 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.42 xG, 1 goal48%0.63 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.63 xG, 0 goals4%0.05 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals13%0.17 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals3%0.04 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

St. Johnstone

Rudden 70', 0.12 xGMacPherson 36', 0.11 xGHallberg 51', 0.10 xGHallberg 45', 0.07 xGMcLennan 49', 0.04 xGMacPherson 61', 0.03 xGWright 49', 0.02 xGMcLennan 67', 0.02 xGWright 70', 0.06 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals38%0.22 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.22 xG, 0 goals21%0.12 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals38%0.22 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.22 xG, 1 goal3%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone

0.39 6 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.45 8 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.12 1 shot, 0 goals
0.92 8 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
58 min (64%) · Kilmarnock 1.25, St. Johnstone 0.11 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
32 min (36%) · Kilmarnock 0.06, St. Johnstone 0.45 xG

Line-ups

2021931134227102623WalkerMayoWrightDorsettArmstrongWatsonDonnellyMcKenzieJonesDoidgeVassellGoalYellow cardYellow cardYellow card85'85'76'Kilmarnock 3-5-2Derek McInnes1145642221823717MatthewsWrightMitchellGordonConsidineBrownHallbergMacPhersonCareyMayBairGoalYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardYellow card40'62'62'St. Johnstone 5-3-2Callum Davidson

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 76' Robinson for Doidge
  • 85' Power for Donnelly
  • 85' Murray for Jones

St. Johnstone substitutes

  • 40' McLennan for Brown
  • 62' Wotherspoon for Carey
  • 62' Rudden for Bair

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
WalkerGK900.000.0110.0741
MayoCB900.340.021−0.0389
WrightCB9010.490.000−0.10116
DorsettCB900.000.0100.0338
ArmstrongRWB900.360.2120.0844
Watson CM900.000.0920.2086
Donnelly CM850.000.0000.0134
McKenzie CM900.020.0200.0152
JonesLWB8510.020.2820.12124
DoidgeST760.050.0100.0001
VassellST900.000.022−0.0142
RobinsonMF140.000.000−0.0601
PowerMF50.000.0000.0000
MurrayMF50.030.0000.0110

St. Johnstone

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MatthewsGK900.000.0000.0223
Wright RWB9010.070.0110.0382
MitchellCB900.000.0000.0235
Gordon CB900.000.0000.0009
Considine CB900.000.0000.02210
BrownLWB400.000.0000.0004
Hallberg CM900.170.0310.0320
MacPherson CM900.140.0310.0344
CareyCM620.000.1520.0512
MayST900.000.0910.0558
BairST620.000.0000.0215
McLennanMF500.060.0100.0423
WotherspoonMF280.000.0100.0121
RuddenFW280.120.0000.0311

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Walker and Wright: 3 passesWalker and Vassell: 3 passesDorsett and Armstrong: 3 passesDorsett and Vassell: 3 passesJones and Watson: 3 passesWatson and Vassell: 3 passesMcKenzie and Doidge: 3 passesWalker and Mayo: 4 passesDorsett and McKenzie: 4 passesDorsett and Donnelly: 4 passesArmstrong and Jones: 4 passesArmstrong and Vassell: 4 passesMcKenzie and Donnelly: 4 passesWright and Dorsett: 5 passesWright and Watson: 5 passesWright and Donnelly: 5 passesJones and Vassell: 5 passesArmstrong and Donnelly: 6 passesJones and McKenzie: 6 passesWright and Mayo: 8 passesArmstrong and Watson: 9 passesMayo and Armstrong: 10 passesDorsett and Jones: 11 passesWalker: 9 completed passesWright: 15 completed passesDorsett: 19 completed passesMayo: 18 completed passesArmstrong: 16 completed passesJones: 19 completed passesWatson: 17 completed passesMcKenzie: 17 completed passesDonnelly: 10 completed passesDoidge: 4 completed passesVassell: 10 completed passes2019321110347222623WalkerWrightDorsettMayoArmstrongJonesWatsonMcKenzieDonnellyDoidgeVassellStarters until 76' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

St. Johnstone

Matthews and Considine: 3 passesMatthews and Bair: 3 passesWright and MacPherson: 3 passesConsidine and Carey: 3 passesConsidine and MacPherson: 3 passesGordon and MacPherson: 3 passesBrown and MacPherson: 3 passesCarey and May: 3 passesMay and Bair: 3 passesConsidine and Bair: 4 passesBrown and Hallberg: 4 passesWright and Bair: 7 passesMatthews: 7 completed passesWright: 8 completed passesMitchell: 5 completed passesConsidine: 12 completed passesGordon: 3 completed passesBrown: 7 completed passesCarey: 7 completed passesHallberg: 7 completed passesMacPherson: 8 completed passesMay: 5 completed passesBair: 8 completed passes1145462232218717MatthewsWrightMitchellConsidineGordonBrownCareyHallbergMacPhersonMayBairStarters until 40' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
MayoArmstrong10
DorsettJones7
MayoWright6
ArmstrongWatson6
WrightMayo5

St. Johnstone

FromToPasses
MacPhersonWright7
ConsidineBair7
WrightBair6
WrightMacPherson6
WrightWotherspoon6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

5−0.47+0.219+6.23−4.03−1.73−4.515+7.95−0.95−1.87−0.66−0.92−3.89+5.59+3.650.07+2.36+1.74+1.93−0.640.02−0.43+1.11+0.12+0.23+0.41−0.40−0.93+2.30−0.41+0.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 28 matches

St. Johnstone

4−2.66−2.524+9.417+8.510+4.411+2.37−0.85−1.010+0.710+1.88+1.93−1.83−0.16+0.72−4.42−1.80−3.65+2.65+2.34−0.13+0.60−1.61+0.510.00−2.30−0.70−0.21+0.62+1.70−0.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 28 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.060.010.020.010.010.030.030.010.010.030.010.040.020.01−0.02−0.030.050.05−0.22−0.020.010.080.09LessMore

St. Johnstone

0.010.010.010.010.030.020.010.020.010.010.040.030.02−0.010.010.030.010.01−0.03−0.010.070.05LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.25AttackKilmarnock0.95 → 0.97St. Johnstone0.95 → 0.94Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.47 → 1.44St. Johnstone1.38 → 1.39

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
11th32%33%+1
Bottom27%32%+5
St. Johnstone
Top six8%6%−2
11th2%2%0
Bottom<1%<1%0
Dundee United
11th30%29%−1
Bottom46%44%−2
Ross County
11th33%33%0
Bottom26%22%−4

From the forecast before the match (18 March 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone
Expected goals1.261.01
Win41%29%
Expected Points1.541.17
Clean sheet36%28%

Kilmarnock 41%Draw 30%St. Johnstone 29%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 46%.

St. Johnstone goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+10%5%2%7%2%8%8%4%1%3%3%2%1%1%11%12%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 March 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawSt. Johnstone win
Kilmarnock
11th32%29%33%33%
Bottom27%16%32%39%
St. Johnstone
Top six8%3%6%18%
11th2%3%2%<1%
Bottom<1%1%<1%–
Dundee United
11th30%28%29%32%
Bottom46%52%44%39%
Ross County
11th33%35%33%31%
Bottom26%30%22%22%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L1–34 MarRangers (A)xG 0.79–3.55
  2. D1–125 FebMotherwell (H)xG 0.75–1.24
  3. L0–218 FebHibernian (A)xG 0.82–2.94
  4. L1–34 FebLivingston (A)xG 1.12–1.45
  5. W1–01 FebDundee United (H)xG 2.71–1.37
  6. L0–328 JanRoss County (A)xG 1.38–1.74

St. Johnstone

  1. L0–34 MarHearts (A)xG 1.19–1.63
  2. D1–125 FebSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.39–1.59
  3. W2–118 FebDundee United (A)xG 0.95–1.17
  4. L1–45 FebCeltic (H)xG 0.26–2.02
  5. W2–01 FebMotherwell (A)xG 1.00–0.31
  6. L0–228 JanRangers (A)xG 0.23–3.29

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone
Position11th8th
Played2828
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠6–⁠169–⁠4–⁠15
Points24 (0.86 per game)31 (1.11 per game)
Expected Points per game1.081.09
Goals23–⁠5032–⁠47
xG per game0.94–⁠1.440.91–⁠1.33
Home: points, xG per game1.69, 1.26–⁠1.120.92, 0.94–⁠1.18
Away: points, xG per game0.13, 0.67–⁠1.721.27, 0.88–⁠1.46
ManagerDerek McInnes (28)Callum Davidson (104)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.25AttackKilmarnock0.95, 10thSt. Johnstone0.95, 11thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.47, 11thSt. Johnstone1.38, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarKilmarnock attack: 0.95St. Johnstone attack: 0.950.950.95St. JohnstoneKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarKilmarnock defence: 1.47St. Johnstone defence: 1.381.471.38

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−37%+7%−25%+18%
Counter-attacks−42%+6%−77%−75%
Set pieces+25%+26%−43%−11%
Penalties−81%−6%−25%−43%
Headers+9%−7%−47%+2%
Left side+4%+1%−37%+12%
Centre−36%+19%−28%−1%
Right side−22%+12%−32%+15%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Johnstone concededLeft side+4%+15%Centre−36%−1%Right side−22%+12%Open play−37%+18%Counter-attacks−42%−75%Set pieces+25%−11%Headers+9%+2%

St. Johnstone attacking

St. Johnstone createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−37%+12%Centre−28%+19%Right side−32%+1%Open play−25%+7%Counter-attacks−77%+6%Set pieces−43%+26%Headers−47%−7%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone

0.94xG0.91
1.44xG against1.33
44%Possession42%
11.1Shots9.9
13.1Shots against14.5
3.0Shots on target3.0
1.4Big chances1.5
19.6Touches in the opposition box15.2
330Passes326
66%Pass accuracy66%
4.3Corners3.5
43%Field tilt37%
33.8Final-third entries27.9
9.2Box entries7.7
14.9Passes per defensive action18.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level311.051.20
Ahead181.041.22
Behind410.811.73

St. Johnstone

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level380.811.24
Ahead200.690.92
Behind321.171.69

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.223–9
16–300.140.273–12
31–450.180.244–7
46–600.290.186–6
61–750.110.194–7
76–900.110.343–9

St. Johnstone

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.070.264–7
16–300.140.144–5
31–450.160.264–11
46–600.160.173–4
61–750.160.237–6
76–900.230.2710–14

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTWalker 18Hemming 10Alebiosu 11Mayo 11Armstrong 3Taylor 19Wright 17Mayo 10Stokes 6Chrisene 7McInroy 6Chambers 4Armstrong 11McKenzie 5Jones 3Polworth 12Armstrong 4Alston 4Power 21Donnelly 8Alebiosu 1McKenzie 12Jones 6Taylor 3Doidge 11Cameron 5Armstrong 3Lafferty 8Vassell 6Robinson 54-4-2 in 8 of 28 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (8), 3-4-2-1 (4), 5-3-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (3), 3-5-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (2), 3-4-3 (2), 4-5-1 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-3-3-1 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1)

St. Johnstone

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTMatthews 26Parish 2Wright 23Brown 3Carey 2Mitchell 23McGowan 12Gordon 19Wright 1Considine 25Brown 4Montgo… 13MontgomeryBrown 5Carey 3Carey 13Brown 4Montgomery 4Hallberg 22McGowan 9Phillips 10MacPherson 9Murphy 3May 20Bair 5Clark 18Murphy 8McLennan 55-3-2 in 9 of 28 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (9), 3-4-1-2 (7), 3-4-2-1 (6), 5-4-1 (2), 3-1-4-2 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
29 October 2022St. Johnstone1–0KilmarnockxG 0.39–0.38
5 October 2022Kilmarnock2–1St. JohnstonexG 1.28–0.87
30 January 2021Kilmarnock2–3St. JohnstonexG 1.17–2.14
6 November 2020St. Johnstone1–0KilmarnockxG 0.61–0.46
15 August 2020Kilmarnock1–2St. JohnstonexG 0.86–1.65

5 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 1, St. Johnstone won 4, and 0 were drawn. Goals 5–8 and xG 0.83–1.13 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Vassell6482010.280.13
Armstrong211,887640.170.21
Robinson5493200.260.09
Shaw7628000.250.02

St. Johnstone

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
May201,781650.230.13
Clark191,486420.250.05
Carey181,478310.220.07
Murphy131,101300.120.09

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.