Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Hearts 4–2 Livingston

Saturday 13 April 2024, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 33 · Half-time 4–2 · Referee Colin Steven · Attendance 18,491

Hearts Grant 29', Oda 32', Devlin 40', Shankland 45+6' (pen)

Livingston Stephen Kelly 10', 22' · Yengi sent off 58'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsLivingston
Goals42
xG3.810.97
Non-penalty xG3.030.97
Expected Points2.890.07

Hearts 95%Draw 4%Livingston 1%

Most likely score 4–1, 16%. Final score 4–2, 6%.

Livingston goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+3%5%2%8%5%1%10%6%1%6%9%4%2%3%1%13%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

012340153045607590HTYengi (Livingston), second yellow card 58'Vargas on for McKay, 59'Kingsley on for Cochrane, 60'Forrest on for Devlin, 66'Fraser on for Oda, 67'Tagawa on for Grant, 74'Anderson on for Yengi, 57'Sangare on for Holt, 72'Carson on for Brandon, 78'Grant 29'Oda 32'Devlin 40'Shankland 45+6' (pen)Stephen Kelly 10'Stephen Kelly 22'Hearts 3.81Livingston 0.97012340153045607590HTYengi (Livingston), second yellow card 58'Vargas on for McKay, 59'Kingsley on for Cochrane, 60'Forrest on for Devlin, 66'Fraser on for Oda, 67'Tagawa on for Grant, 74'Anderson on for Yengi, 57'Sangare on for Holt, 72'Carson on for Brandon, 78'Grant 29'Oda 32'Devlin 40'Shankland 45+6' (pen)Stephen Kelly 10'Stephen Kelly 22'3.810.97HeartsLivingston

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsLivingston

3.81 +2.52xG0.97 +0.05
3.03Non-penalty xG0.97
3.74 +2.41xG on target0.68 −0.07
13 −0.7Shots8 −1.3
5 +0.5Shots on target3 +0.6
5 +3.7Big chances2 +0.8
34 +8Touches in the opposition box10 −7
62% +6Possession38% −5
508 +50Passes311 −10
78% +2Pass accuracy68% +6
61% +5Field tilt39% −2
46 +3Final-third entries23 −3
12 −1.5Box entries5 −2.2
11.2 −2Passes per defensive action13.2 −2
5 −1.9Corners5 +1.9
19 +5Tackles17 0
2 −4.3Interceptions11 +3.9
7 −14Clearances19 −5
1 −1.8Saves1 −2.0
9 −2Fouls17 +5
1 0.0Offsides3 +1.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Devlin 64', 0.55 xGForrest 90', 0.20 xGForrest 75', 0.10 xGShankland 61', 0.06 xGGrant 7', 0.03 xGGrant 61', 0.03 xGShankland 61', 0.03 xGRowles 7', 0.02 xGShankland 67', 0.02 xGOda 32', 0.89 xG, goalGrant 29', 0.78 xG, goalDevlin 40', 0.31 xG, goal66%1.98 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 1.98 xG, 3 goals25%0.75 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.75 xG, 0 goals5%0.16 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.16 xG, 0 goals4%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Livingston

Nottingham 52', 0.52 xGMackay 83', 0.16 xGObileye 82', 0.10 xGYengi 9', 0.07 xGSean Kelly 81', 0.04 xGDevlin 72', 0.02 xGStephen Kelly 22', 0.04 xG, goalStephen Kelly 10', 0.02 xG, goal65%0.62 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.62 xG, 0 goals24%0.23 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals7%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 1 goal4%0.04 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 1 goal

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsLivingston

2.77 9 shots, 3 goalsOpen play0.31 5 shots, 2 goals
0.20 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.06 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.66 3 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
18 min (19%) · Hearts 0.35, Livingston 0.10 xG
Hearts ahead
56 min (58%) · Hearts 1.79, Livingston 0.84 xG
Livingston ahead
22 min (23%) · Hearts 1.67, Livingston 0.04 xG

Line-ups

11321519146117189GordonAtkinsonKentRowlesCochraneDevlinBaningimeOdaGrantMcKayShanklandYellow cardGoalGoalGoalGoal60'66'67'74'59'Hearts 4-2-3-1Steven Naismith121562412818101133GeorgeNottinghamDevlinObileyeSean KellyBrandonPittmanHoltStephen KellyMackayYengiGoalGoalYellow cardSent off, second yellow78'72'Livingston 4-1-4-1David Martindale

Hearts substitutes

  • 59' Vargas for McKay
  • 60' Kingsley for Cochrane
  • 66' Forrest for Devlin
  • 67' Fraser for Oda
  • 74' Tagawa for Grant

Livingston substitutes

  • 57' Anderson for Yengi
  • 72' Sangare for Holt
  • 78' Carson for Brandon

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0101
AtkinsonRB900.000.0500.0664
KentCB900.000.0200.1494
RowlesCB900.020.0000.0746
Cochrane LB6010.000.5010.2640
DevlinDM6610.860.0600.0452
BaningimeDM900.000.0100.0044
OdaRW6710.890.041−0.0130
GrantAM7410.840.1920.1793
McKayLW590.000.0500.0880
ShanklandST90120.901.2040.3641
VargasMF310.000.1500.0312
KingsleyDF300.000.0200.0110
ForrestMF240.300.0000.0620
FraserMF230.000.0000.0112
TagawaFW160.000.000−0.0100

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GeorgeGK900.000.0100.0771
NottinghamRB900.520.0400.0736
DevlinCB900.020.0410.12610
ObileyeCB900.100.0100.0543
Sean KellyLB900.040.0920.0655
BrandonDM780.000.0100.0324
PittmanRM900.000.1200.0403
HoltCM720.000.0200.0007
Stephen KellyCM9020.060.2910.0124
MackayLM900.160.000−0.0201
Yengi ST5710.070.0310.0503
AndersonFW330.000.0000.0101
SangareMF180.000.0000.0105
CarsonMF120.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Gordon and Kent: 5 passesAtkinson and Baningime: 5 passesAtkinson and Oda: 5 passesKent and Grant: 5 passesCochrane and Baningime: 5 passesDevlin and Shankland: 5 passesOda and Grant: 5 passesGrant and McKay: 5 passesMcKay and Shankland: 5 passesBaningime and Shankland: 6 passesRowles and Cochrane: 7 passesKent and Baningime: 7 passesKent and Oda: 7 passesCochrane and Devlin: 7 passesCochrane and Shankland: 7 passesAtkinson and Kent: 8 passesRowles and McKay: 8 passesDevlin and Grant: 8 passesCochrane and McKay: 9 passesAtkinson and Shankland: 10 passesDevlin and Baningime: 10 passesAtkinson and Devlin: 11 passesRowles and Devlin: 11 passesKent and Devlin: 12 passesRowles and Kent: 19 passesGordon: 8 completed passesAtkinson: 25 completed passesRowles: 30 completed passesKent: 36 completed passesCochrane: 24 completed passesDevlin: 36 completed passesBaningime: 24 completed passesOda: 11 completed passesGrant: 15 completed passesMcKay: 15 completed passesShankland: 19 completed passes11315219146117189GordonAtkinsonRowlesKentCochraneDevlinBaningimeOdaGrantMcKayShanklandStarters until 59' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Livingston

George and Nottingham: 3 passesObileye and Devlin: 3 passesObileye and Brandon: 3 passesObileye and Yengi: 3 passesDevlin and Holt: 3 passesSean Kelly and Stephen Kelly: 3 passesBrandon and Pittman: 3 passesHolt and Mackay: 3 passesHolt and Yengi: 3 passesGeorge and Stephen Kelly: 4 passesSean Kelly and Holt: 4 passesPittman and Holt: 4 passesStephen Kelly and Yengi: 4 passesGeorge and Obileye: 5 passesGeorge and Yengi: 5 passesNottingham and Devlin: 5 passesPittman and Yengi: 5 passesHolt and Stephen Kelly: 5 passesGeorge and Devlin: 7 passesNottingham and Holt: 7 passesSean Kelly and Mackay: 7 passesGeorge: 13 completed passesNottingham: 14 completed passesObileye: 15 completed passesDevlin: 10 completed passesSean Kelly: 10 completed passesBrandon: 7 completed passesPittman: 11 completed passesHolt: 18 completed passesStephen Kelly: 16 completed passesMackay: 4 completed passesYengi: 10 completed passes121652412818101133GeorgeNottinghamObileyeDevlinSean KellyBrandonPittmanHoltStephen KellyMackayYengiStarters until 57' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
RowlesKent17
AtkinsonShankland13
KentRowles11
AtkinsonKent9
KentDevlin8

Livingston

FromToPasses
GeorgeDevlin9
ObileyeGeorge8
HoltStephen Kelly6
Stephen KellySean Kelly6
Sean KellyHolt6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

5−0.26−1.31−5.65+0.69+1.60−5.74−0.36−0.54−2.62−3.47+1.97+2.47+1.71−4.82−1.73−0.75+2.22−1.30−4.61−0.93+1.40−1.10−1.23+0.90−0.80−0.72+1.42+1.42+1.34−11.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 32 matches

Livingston

1−4.47−0.117+1.37+0.36+0.74−2.94−0.45−2.34−3.17+1.15−0.32−1.612+6.46+0.21−3.46+2.13+1.05+2.07+2.03−0.15+3.21+0.23+0.95+2.12+1.12+1.83+2.41+0.72+1.32−5.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 32 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.010.010.010.010.030.020.010.010.090.030.040.020.060.070.03−0.020.060.010.020.060.150.020.040.170.31LessMore

Livingston

0.010.030.010.020.020.010.010.010.020.020.010.020.020.05−0.010.050.06−0.010.010.05−0.010.09LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackHearts1.34 → 1.40Livingston0.93 → 0.91Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.24 → 1.21Livingston1.52 → 1.58

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Livingston
11th2%1%−1
Bottom98%99%+1
Ross County
11th81%81%0
Bottom2%1%−1

From the forecast before the match (13 April 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsLivingston
Expected goals1.840.81
Win61%15%
Expected Points2.070.69
Clean sheet45%16%

Hearts 61%Draw 23%Livingston 15%

Most likely score 1–0, 13%. Both sides score 47%.

Livingston goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+8%5%2%4%1%4%1%7%6%2%3%3%1%1%1%13%11%12%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 13 April 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawLivingston win
Livingston
11th2%1%3%7%
Bottom98%99%97%93%
Ross County
11th81%81%82%77%
Bottom2%1%3%7%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. W2–16 AprSt. Mirren (A)xG 2.37–0.89
  2. D1–130 MarKilmarnock (H)xG 1.61–1.55
  3. L1–216 MarRoss County (A)xG 1.27–1.74
  4. W2–03 MarCeltic (H)xG 1.65–2.45
  5. D1–128 FebHibernian (H)xG 1.70–2.66
  6. L0–524 FebRangers (A)xG 0.60–1.47

Livingston

  1. D0–06 AprAberdeen (H)xG 0.76–0.92
  2. L0–331 MarCeltic (H)xG 0.14–2.11
  3. L0–316 MarHibernian (A)xG 0.93–2.56
  4. D1–12 MarSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.54–1.09
  5. L1–328 FebMotherwell (H)xG 0.92–1.25
  6. L2–324 FebRoss County (A)xG 1.13–1.06

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsLivingston
Position3rd12th
Played3232
Won, drawn, lost18–⁠5–⁠93–⁠9–⁠20
Points59 (1.84 per game)18 (0.56 per game)
Expected Points per game1.341.15
Goals42–⁠3220–⁠55
xG per game1.29–⁠1.440.92–⁠1.37
Home: points, xG per game1.81, 1.44–⁠1.390.75, 1.09–⁠1.26
Away: points, xG per game1.88, 1.15–⁠1.490.38, 0.76–⁠1.48
ManagerSteven Naismith (28)David Martindale (131)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackHearts1.34, 3rdLivingston0.93, 12thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.24, 4thLivingston1.52, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprHearts attack: 1.34Livingston attack: 0.931.340.93LivingstonHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprHearts defence: 1.24Livingston defence: 1.521.521.24

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsLivingston
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−10%+6%−46%+1%
Counter-attacks−1%−26%−31%+33%
Set pieces−8%+15%−19%+2%
Penalties+24%+9%+9%−22%
Headers−19%+11%−26%−13%
Left side−7%−12%−42%+23%
Centre−17%+8%−30%−6%
Right side+7%+21%−47%+4%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdLivingston concededLeft side−7%+4%Centre−17%−6%Right side+7%+23%Open play−10%+1%Counter-attacks−1%+33%Set pieces−8%+2%Headers−19%−13%

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdHearts concededLeft side−42%+21%Centre−30%+8%Right side−47%−12%Open play−46%+6%Counter-attacks−31%−26%Set pieces−19%+15%Headers−26%+11%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsLivingston

1.29xG0.92
1.44xG against1.37
56%Possession43%
13.7Shots9.3
13.4Shots against13.3
4.5Shots on target2.4
1.3Big chances1.2
26.2Touches in the opposition box16.8
458Passes321
75%Pass accuracy62%
6.9Corners3.1
56%Field tilt41%
42.6Final-third entries26.4
13.5Box entries7.2
13.7Passes per defensive action14.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.331.30
Ahead271.021.63
Behind191.621.50

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level500.801.23
Ahead80.931.60
Behind321.121.53

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.224–3
16–300.160.245–5
31–450.190.234–5
46–600.220.268–6
61–750.310.1711–7
76–900.280.3310–6

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.222–5
16–300.070.182–9
31–450.190.164–7
46–600.120.303–10
61–750.150.164–7
76–900.300.355–17

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTClark 32Kingsley 19Sibbick 7Atkinson 6Kent 30Halkett 4Rowles 25Atkinson 7Oda 7Forrest 5Nieuwen… 21NieuwenhofDevlin 9Denholm 6Baningi… 20BaningimeFraser 3Boyce 3Grant 12Lowry 7Haring 5Cochrane 17Forrest 7Vargas 3Shankland 29Vargas 7Cochrane 7Forrest 63-5-2 in 17 of 32 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (17), 4-2-3-1 (13), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Livingston

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTGeorge 26Hamilton 4McGovern 2Nottingham 11de Lucas 10Shinnie 3Obileye 26Devlin 20Sean Kelly 8Parkes 3Brandon 17Mackay 4Nottingham 4Holt 28Penrice 7Carson 5Shinnie 12Pittman 5Brandon 2Penrice 15Sean Kelly 5Montano 3Pittman 13Stephen Kelly 9Bradley 6Nouble 11Anderson 7Shinnie 6Nouble 9Guthrie 9Yengi 83-4-2-1 in 8 of 32 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (8), 3-4-1-2 (7), 4-2-3-1 (5), 3-5-2 (3), 4-3-1-2 (2), 4-1-4-1 (1), 4-4-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1), 4-5-1 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 4-3-2-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
2 January 2024Livingston1–2HeartsxG 1.66–1.94
1 November 2023Hearts1–0LivingstonxG 1.91–0.21
29 January 2023Livingston0–0HeartsxG 0.34–1.63
12 November 2022Hearts1–1LivingstonxG 2.95–1.84
3 September 2022Livingston1–0HeartsxG 1.19–0.69
19 March 2022Hearts2–0LivingstonxG 1.20–0.61

8 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 5, Livingston won 1, and 2 were drawn. Goals 10–3 and xG 1.82–0.90 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland312,7792020.460.14
Boyce7631130.360.20
Grant121,155340.310.16
Vargas161,590510.250.10

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Yengi8745310.360.11
Anderson131,543500.310.06
Bradley8583000.190.10
Mackay8803110.120.15

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.