Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Hearts 1–1 Livingston

Saturday 12 November 2022, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 16 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Craig Napier · Attendance 18,448

Hearts Ginnelly 90+7' · Rowles sent off 75'

Livingston Stephen Kelly 55'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsLivingston
Goals11
xG2.951.84
Non-penalty xG2.951.05
Expected Points2.060.74

Hearts 62%Draw 20%Livingston 18%

Most likely score 3–2, 9%. Final score 1–1, 5%.

Livingston goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+1%1%5%4%2%2%4%1%2%5%1%1%6%3%1%3%3%2%2%2%8%9%9%9%7%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

012340153045607590HTRowles (Hearts), red card 75'Forrest on for Devlin, 63'C. Smith on for Kiomourtzoglou, 67'Halkett on for C. Smith, 78'Pittman on for Stephen Kelly, 69'Bahamboula on for Shinnie, 82'Ginnelly 90+7'Stephen Kelly 55'Hearts 2.95Livingston 1.84012340153045607590HTRowles (Hearts), red card 75'Forrest on for Devlin, 63'C. Smith on for Kiomourtzoglou, 67'Halkett on for C. Smith, 78'Pittman on for Stephen Kelly, 69'Bahamboula on for Shinnie, 82'Ginnelly 90+7'Stephen Kelly 55'2.951.84HeartsLivingston

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsLivingston

2.95 +1.54xG1.84 +0.87
2.95Non-penalty xG1.05
1.34 +0.05xG on target2.01 +1.07
16 +4.1Shots18 +8.4
6 +1.8Shots on target7 +3.9
7 +5.1Big chances2 +0.5
42 +23Touches in the opposition box26 +5
73% +24Possession27% −13
496 +89Passes187 −94
86% +12Pass accuracy65% +3
66% +21Field tilt34% −8
43 +11Final-third entries20 −7
21 +11.0Box entries9 +0.4
8.9 −6Passes per defensive action18.0 +2
11 +7.1Corners6 +2.1
18 0Tackles17 +4
6 −3.9Interceptions14 +3.9
17 0Clearances36 +12
5 +1.4Saves5 +2.6
9 −1Fouls10 −4
3 +2.0Offsides4 +2.9

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Shankland 90+2', 0.52 xGShankland 90+2', 0.39 xGShankland 60', 0.27 xGShankland 11', 0.23 xGShankland 44', 0.22 xGShankland 51', 0.21 xGShankland 90+2', 0.21 xGShankland 39', 0.17 xGDevlin 45', 0.15 xGGinnelly 82', 0.14 xGGinnelly 14', 0.10 xGDevlin 44', 0.09 xGRowles 72', 0.09 xGShankland 25', 0.04 xGGinnelly 23', 0.03 xGGinnelly 90+7', 0.08 xG, goal40%1.18 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 1.18 xG, 0 goals45%1.33 xGCentral box: 9 shots, 1.33 xG, 0 goals14%0.41 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.41 xG, 1 goal1%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Livingston

Nouble 78', 0.23 xGSean Kelly 45+1', 0.09 xGFitzwater 45+2', 0.08 xGPittman 90+4', 0.08 xGMontaño 45+2', 0.07 xGStephen Kelly 2', 0.05 xGHolt 30', 0.05 xGShinnie 8', 0.04 xGStephen Kelly 45+2', 0.04 xGObileye 19', 0.03 xGHolt 29', 0.03 xGShinnie 50', 0.03 xGOméonga 84', 0.03 xGShinnie 2', 0.02 xGStephen Kelly 22', 0.02 xGStephen Kelly 61', 0.02 xGStephen Kelly 55', 0.14 xG, goal25%0.27 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.27 xG, 0 goals49%0.52 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 0.52 xG, 1 goal8%0.09 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.09 xG, 0 goals14%0.15 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals3%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsLivingston

2.31 11 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.66 8 shots, 1 goal
0.65 5 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.39 9 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
58 min (58%) · Hearts 1.25, Livingston 0.69 xG
Livingston ahead
42 min (42%) · Hearts 1.70, Livingston 1.15 xG

Line-ups

122115198301477189GordonM. SmithSibbickRowlesCochraneKiomourtzoglouGinnellyDevlinSnodgrassMcKayShanklandSent offYellow cardGoal67'63'Hearts 4-1-4-1Robbie Neilson3126511241833221719KonovalovDevlinObileyeFitzwaterMontañoSean KellyHoltOméongaShinnieStephen KellyNoubleYellow cardGoal82'69'Livingston 4-2-3-1David Martindale

Hearts substitutes

  • 63' Forrest for Devlin
  • 67' C. Smith for Kiomourtzoglou · off 78'
  • 78' Halkett for C. Smith

Livingston substitutes

  • 69' Pittman for Stephen Kelly
  • 82' Bahamboula for Shinnie

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0221
M. SmithRB900.000.2310.2894
SibbickCB900.000.0000.0526
Rowles CB750.090.0000.1036
CochraneLB900.000.4430.2367
Kiomourtzoglou DM670.000.0010.0034
GinnellyRM9010.350.3410.2572
DevlinCM630.240.0810.1134
SnodgrassCM900.000.2110.0425
McKayLM900.000.1600.36205
ShanklandST902.270.020−0.0231
ForrestMF270.000.0410.1952
C. SmithMF110.000.000−0.0100
HalkettDF120.000.0000.0112

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KonovalovGK900.000.0000.0434
DevlinRB900.000.2720.27410
ObileyeCB900.030.0300.0959
FitzwaterCB900.080.2210.0516
MontañoLB900.070.0010.0248
Sean KellyDM900.880.1220.0405
HoltDM900.080.0110.0318
Oméonga RW900.030.0000.0007
ShinnieAM8210.090.0310.0435
Stephen KellyLW6910.270.0200.0112
NoubleST900.230.0930.2564
PittmanMF210.080.0000.0003
BahamboulaFW80.000.0000.0101

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

M. Smith and Snodgrass: 5 passesM. Smith and McKay: 5 passesRowles and Devlin: 5 passesSibbick and Kiomourtzoglou: 5 passesKiomourtzoglou and Snodgrass: 5 passesSnodgrass and Shankland: 5 passesMcKay and Shankland: 5 passesRowles and Snodgrass: 6 passesDevlin and Snodgrass: 6 passesSibbick and Devlin: 7 passesCochrane and Kiomourtzoglou: 7 passesM. Smith and Devlin: 8 passesM. Smith and Rowles: 9 passesM. Smith and Ginnelly: 10 passesRowles and Kiomourtzoglou: 10 passesSibbick and Ginnelly: 10 passesGordon and Rowles: 11 passesM. Smith and Kiomourtzoglou: 11 passesSnodgrass and McKay: 11 passesGinnelly and Devlin: 12 passesM. Smith and Sibbick: 19 passesRowles and McKay: 20 passesCochrane and McKay: 23 passesCochrane and Snodgrass: 24 passesRowles and Sibbick: 29 passesRowles and Cochrane: 29 passesGordon: 14 completed passesM. Smith: 39 completed passesRowles: 60 completed passesSibbick: 42 completed passesCochrane: 49 completed passesKiomourtzoglou: 20 completed passesGinnelly: 16 completed passesDevlin: 24 completed passesSnodgrass: 32 completed passesMcKay: 35 completed passesShankland: 8 completed passes121521198301477189GordonM. SmithRowlesSibbickCochraneKiomourtzoglouGinnellyDevlinSnodgrassMcKayShanklandStarters until 63' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Livingston

Konovalov and Fitzwater: 3 passesKonovalov and Obileye: 3 passesDevlin and Sean Kelly: 3 passesDevlin and Shinnie: 3 passesDevlin and Nouble: 3 passesObileye and Oméonga: 3 passesObileye and Nouble: 3 passesHolt and Nouble: 3 passesOméonga and Stephen Kelly: 3 passesShinnie and Stephen Kelly: 3 passesDevlin and Obileye: 4 passesFitzwater and Sean Kelly: 4 passesObileye and Sean Kelly: 4 passesSean Kelly and Stephen Kelly: 4 passesShinnie and Nouble: 5 passesKonovalov: 7 completed passesDevlin: 11 completed passesFitzwater: 9 completed passesObileye: 12 completed passesMontaño: 10 completed passesHolt: 8 completed passesSean Kelly: 15 completed passesOméonga: 8 completed passesShinnie: 8 completed passesStephen Kelly: 8 completed passesNouble: 9 completed passes3125611182433221719KonovalovDevlinFitzwaterObileyeMontañoHoltSean KellyOméongaShinnieStephen KellyNoubleStarters until 69' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
RowlesCochrane21
RowlesSibbick19
CochraneMcKay18
SibbickRowles18
SibbickM. Smith17

Livingston

FromToPasses
DevlinNouble6
Sean KellyStephen Kelly4
NoubleShinnie4
Sean KellyFitzwater3
HoltMontaño3

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

2−3.11−5.619+6.410+3.69+4.94−2.78+1.66−2.95−2.49+3.31−3.92−1.62−3.52−3.26+1.93−0.31−1.63+0.46+1.43−0.61−0.80−0.81−0.23+0.90−0.40−0.41+0.40−0.11+0.51−7.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 14 matches

Livingston

8+2.612+4.627+13.97−1.26+1.48+0.18+1.93−1.96−0.26−2.16+0.30−4.92−0.44−0.110+2.53−1.15+2.05+2.82−1.04−0.13+0.63+1.54+3.10−1.20−2.91−0.10−0.11+0.40−0.50−0.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 14 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.010.050.010.030.040.020.010.020.030.050.010.010.020.190.070.090.160.090.13−0.010.07−0.050.200.020.30LessMore

Livingston

0.010.010.010.030.010.010.010.07−0.010.010.020.040.020.01−0.010.010.150.020.010.01−0.01−0.020.170.24LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.22AttackHearts1.22 → 1.24Livingston1.05 → 1.04Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.31 → 1.30Livingston1.28 → 1.30

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six81%78%−3
11th1%1%0
Livingston
Top six71%73%+2
11th2%2%0
Bottom1%1%0

From the forecast before the match (12 November 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsLivingston
Expected goals1.541.01
Win49%24%
Expected Points1.740.99
Clean sheet36%21%

Hearts 49%Draw 27%Livingston 24%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 51%.

Livingston goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+8%7%4%1%6%2%5%2%5%5%2%2%2%11%13%9%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 12 November 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawLivingston win
Hearts
Top six81%88%78%71%
11th1%<1%1%1%
Livingston
Top six71%64%73%82%
11th2%2%2%1%
Bottom1%1%1%<1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. L0–19 NovRangers (A)xG 0.50–1.82
  2. W3–26 NovMotherwell (H)xG 2.61–2.25
  3. W2–130 OctRoss County (A)xG 0.65–1.44
  4. L3–422 OctCeltic (H)xG 2.90–2.82
  5. L0–216 OctAberdeen (A)xG 1.36–1.73
  6. D2–29 OctKilmarnock (A)xG 1.17–1.68

Livingston

  1. W2–18 NovAberdeen (H)xG 1.29–3.34
  2. W3–24 NovKilmarnock (A)xG 1.68–1.04
  3. L0–330 OctCeltic (H)xG 0.24–2.47
  4. D1–122 OctRangers (A)xG 0.33–1.56
  5. W1–015 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.08–0.42
  6. L0–18 OctRoss County (H)xG 1.73–0.53

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsLivingston
Position6th4th
Played1414
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠2–⁠67–⁠1–⁠6
Points20 (1.43 per game)22 (1.57 per game)
Expected Points per game1.111.18
Goals23–⁠2414–⁠19
xG per game1.41–⁠1.800.97–⁠1.43
Home: points, xG per game2.00, 2.04–⁠1.741.88, 1.05–⁠1.32
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 0.94–⁠1.841.17, 0.86–⁠1.57
ManagerRobbie Neilson (52)David Martindale (75)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.22AttackHearts1.22, 3rdLivingston1.05, 7thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.31, 7thLivingston1.28, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovHearts attack: 1.22Livingston attack: 1.051.221.05LivingstonHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovHearts defence: 1.31Livingston defence: 1.281.311.28

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsLivingston
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+16%+66%−37%−10%
Counter-attacks−63%−53%−100%−67%
Set pieces−21%+12%+6%+30%
Penalties+57%−21%+18%+136%
Headers−23%+35%−27%+63%
Left side+1%+29%−14%−23%
Centre+7%+69%−34%−8%
Right side+3%+38%−38%+24%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdLivingston concededLeft side+1%+24%Centre+7%−8%Right side+3%−23%Open play+16%−10%Counter-attacks−63%−67%Set pieces−21%+30%Headers−23%+63%

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdHearts concededLeft side−14%+38%Centre−34%+69%Right side−38%+29%Open play−37%+66%Counter-attacks−100%−53%Set pieces+6%+12%Headers−27%+35%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsLivingston

1.41xG0.97
1.80xG against1.43
50%Possession40%
11.9Shots9.6
14.7Shots against14.1
4.2Shots on target3.1
1.9Big chances1.5
19.4Touches in the opposition box21.1
407Passes281
74%Pass accuracy62%
3.9Corners3.9
45%Field tilt42%
31.6Final-third entries27.3
10.0Box entries8.6
15.2Passes per defensive action15.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level342.021.72
Ahead291.042.20
Behind271.051.47

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level351.071.17
Ahead370.751.30
Behind181.212.21

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.230.202–5
16–300.220.184–2
31–450.310.283–0
46–600.190.365–5
61–750.200.363–4
76–900.270.426–8

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.104–2
16–300.180.073–0
31–450.150.292–2
46–600.050.281–4
61–750.200.312–7
76–900.170.382–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 13Stewart 1M. Smith 9Sibbick 2Atkinson 2Sibbick 6Neilson 4Halkett 3Rowles 6Kingsley 6Cochrane 3Cochrane 9Halliday 4Kiomourtzoglou 1Devlin 8Halliday 4Haring 4Snodgrass 6Grant 2M. Smith 1Ginnelly 4Forrest 4McKay 2Boyce 3Atkinson 2Grant 2McKay 7Mackay-Steven 3Forrest 2Shankland 8Humphrys 3Ginnelly 24-2-3-1 in 7 of 14 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 4-1-4-1 (3), 3-4-3 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Livingston

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMAMAMSTGeorge 13Hamilton 1Devlin 14Obileye 14Fitzwater 8Sean Kelly 6Montano 10Holt 1Longridge 1Sean Kelly 8Omeonga 5Longridge 1Holt 12Bahamboula 3Pittman 9Stephen Kelly 2Goncalves 1Shinnie 6Bahamboula 3Omeonga 3Pittman 5Nouble 5Penrice 2Nouble 9Guthrie 3Anderson 24-3-2-1 in 5 of 14 starts

Formations: 4-3-2-1 (5), 4-3-3 (3), 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-3-1-2 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
3 September 2022Livingston1–0HeartsxG 1.19–0.69
19 March 2022Hearts2–0LivingstonxG 1.20–0.61
5 December 2021Livingston0–1HeartsxG 1.25–1.84
25 September 2021Hearts3–0LivingstonxG 2.43–0.12

4 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 3, Livingston won 1, and 0 were drawn. Goals 6–1 and xG 1.54–0.79 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland10982920.710.06
Forrest8708300.270.06
Ginnelly6532120.100.21
Snodgrass6602030.060.24

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Sean Kelly141,165220.210.13
Nouble141,237320.170.08
Bahamboula6511100.150.08
Montano10812310.070.14

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.