Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Livingston 1–3 Motherwell

Wednesday 28 February 2024, 20:00 · Tony Macaroni Arena · Round 28 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 1,659

Livingston Yengi 3'

Motherwell Nicholson 49', Spittal 71', Vale 87'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

LivingstonMotherwell
Goals13
xG0.921.25
Expected Points1.081.61

Livingston 25%Draw 32%Motherwell 43%

Most likely score 1–1, 16%. Final score 1–3, 3%.

Motherwell goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+10%9%3%10%9%3%4%7%5%2%1%2%1%14%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTMcGovern on for George, 57'Devlin on for Sean Kelly and Montano on for Mackay, 65'Shinnie on for Holt and Guthrie on for Nouble, 77'Vale on for Zdravkovski, 46'Gent on for Nicholson, 87'Obika on for Bair and Blaney on for Devine, 90+1'Yengi 3'Nicholson 49'Spittal 71'Vale 87'Motherwell 1.25Livingston 0.9200.511.50153045607590HTMcGovern on for George, 57'Devlin on for Sean Kelly and Montano on for Mackay, 65'Shinnie on for Holt and Guthrie on for Nouble, 77'Vale on for Zdravkovski, 46'Gent on for Nicholson, 87'Obika on for Bair and Blaney on for Devine, 90+1'Yengi 3'Nicholson 49'Spittal 71'Vale 87'1.250.92LivingstonMotherwell

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

LivingstonMotherwell

0.92 −0.05xG1.25 +0.06
0.40 −0.40xG on target3.04 +1.71
14 +4.6Shots15 +4.4
4 +1.7Shots on target5 +1.2
3 +1.7Big chances4 +2.1
16 −1Touches in the opposition box24 +5
40% −4Possession60% +16
326 +1Passes490 +150
64% +2Pass accuracy74% +9
30% −12Field tilt70% +26
22 −5Final-third entries48 +18
8 +0.6Box entries10 +0.5
21.9 +7Passes per defensive action22.2 +6
1 −2.4Corners4 −0.4
15 −2Tackles13 −4
5 −2.1Interceptions3 −4.9
11 −13Clearances17 −7
2 −0.9Saves3 +0.5
12 0Fouls8 −4
1 −0.9Offsides1 −0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Livingston

Mackay 3', 0.15 xGYengi 15', 0.15 xGAnderson 82', 0.11 xGMackay 11', 0.08 xGObileye 60', 0.07 xGGuthrie 85', 0.05 xGMackay 21', 0.04 xGNouble 76', 0.04 xGYengi 21', 0.03 xGSean Kelly 64', 0.03 xGYengi 35', 0.02 xGAnderson 50', 0.02 xGBrandon 89', 0.01 xGYengi 3', 0.11 xG, goal29%0.27 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.27 xG, 0 goals21%0.19 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.19 xG, 0 goals33%0.30 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.30 xG, 1 goal14%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals3%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Motherwell

O'Donnell 42', 0.25 xGSpittal 41', 0.17 xGZdravkovski 32', 0.07 xGMugabi 8', 0.05 xGSpittal 28', 0.05 xGBair 57', 0.03 xGCasey 27', 0.02 xGCasey 29', 0.02 xGMiller 39', 0.02 xGMugabi 42', 0.01 xGMiller 45', 0.01 xGBair 62', 0.01 xGNicholson 49', 0.20 xG, goalVale 87', 0.20 xG, goalSpittal 71', 0.13 xG, goal35%0.44 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.44 xG, 1 goal59%0.74 xGCentral box: 9 shots, 0.74 xG, 2 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals6%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

LivingstonMotherwell

0.70 10 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.89 10 shots, 3 goals
0.08 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.14 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.36 5 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
25 min (26%) · Livingston 0.38, Motherwell 0.17 xG
Livingston ahead
46 min (48%) · Livingston 0.32, Motherwell 0.88 xG
Motherwell ahead
24 min (25%) · Livingston 0.22, Motherwell 0.20 xG

Line-ups

112621241141819339GeorgeBrandonObileyeNottinghamSean KellyMackayCarsonHoltNoubleYengiAndersonGoalYellow card57'65'65'77'77'Livingston 4-4-2David Martindale116515238172119714KellyMcGinnMugabiCaseyO'DonnellMillerZdravkovskiDevineNicholsonSpittalBairYellow cardGoalGoal46'90+1'87'90+1'Motherwell 3-4-2-1Stuart Kettlewell

Livingston substitutes

  • 57' McGovern for George
  • 65' Devlin for Sean Kelly
  • 65' Montano for Mackay
  • 77' Shinnie for Holt
  • 77' Guthrie for Nouble

Motherwell substitutes

  • 46' Vale for Zdravkovski · goal 87'
  • 87' Gent for Nicholson
  • 90+1' Blaney for Devine
  • 90+1' Obika for Bair

Players

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GeorgeGK570.000.0000.0000
BrandonRB900.010.0200.0642
ObileyeCB900.070.0000.0444
NottinghamCB900.000.0100.0539
Sean KellyLB650.030.0320.0230
MackayRM650.260.0000.0502
CarsonCM900.000.0100.0213
HoltCM770.000.0210.0125
NoubleLM770.040.1720.2043
Yengi ST9010.310.0200.0342
AndersonST900.130.2310.0131
McGovernGK330.000.0000.0110
DevlinDF250.000.0100.0661
MontanoFW250.000.1520.2130
ShinnieFW130.000.0000.0120
GuthrieFW130.050.0000.0100

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KellyGK900.000.0000.0320
McGinnCB900.000.0300.09127
MugabiCB900.070.0010.0657
Casey CB900.040.0300.12116
O'DonnellRWB9010.250.2320.41152
MillerCM900.030.0400.0453
ZdravkovskiCM460.070.0100.0430
DevineLWB900.000.0410.1033
NicholsonAM8710.200.0600.0324
SpittalAM9010.350.284−0.0474
BairST9010.040.2510.2410
ValeFW4410.200.0200.0022
GentMF30.000.0000.0000
BlaneyDF00.000.0000.0000
ObikaFW00.000.0100.0100

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Livingston

George and Nottingham: 3 passesBrandon and Yengi: 3 passesObileye and Holt: 3 passesObileye and Yengi: 3 passesSean Kelly and Holt: 3 passesYengi and Anderson: 3 passesBrandon and Mackay: 4 passesHolt and Yengi: 4 passesNouble and Yengi: 4 passesBrandon and Holt: 5 passesNottingham and Nouble: 6 passesCarson and Yengi: 7 passesNottingham and Sean Kelly: 8 passesSean Kelly and Nouble: 8 passesGeorge: 5 completed passesBrandon: 11 completed passesObileye: 5 completed passesNottingham: 15 completed passesSean Kelly: 13 completed passesMackay: 5 completed passesCarson: 10 completed passesHolt: 11 completed passesNouble: 11 completed passesYengi: 11 completed passesAnderson: 6 completed passes112621241141819339GeorgeBrandonObileyeNottinghamSean KellyMackayCarsonHoltNoubleYengiAndersonStarters until 57' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Motherwell

Kelly and Casey: 5 passesMcGinn and Miller: 5 passesMcGinn and Spittal: 5 passesMiller and Spittal: 5 passesMugabi and Miller: 6 passesMcGinn and Nicholson: 6 passesO'Donnell and Spittal: 6 passesDevine and Zdravkovski: 6 passesDevine and Miller: 6 passesDevine and Spittal: 6 passesCasey and Nicholson: 7 passesO'Donnell and Miller: 7 passesKelly and McGinn: 8 passesCasey and McGinn: 8 passesO'Donnell and Zdravkovski: 8 passesDevine and Nicholson: 8 passesCasey and Spittal: 9 passesMugabi and Zdravkovski: 9 passesCasey and Miller: 10 passesO'Donnell and Nicholson: 10 passesZdravkovski and Miller: 11 passesMcGinn and O'Donnell: 13 passesMugabi and McGinn: 14 passesMcGinn and Zdravkovski: 15 passesCasey and Devine: 19 passesCasey and Mugabi: 20 passesKelly: 16 completed passesCasey: 43 completed passesMugabi: 32 completed passesMcGinn: 38 completed passesO'Donnell: 26 completed passesDevine: 27 completed passesZdravkovski: 29 completed passesMiller: 30 completed passesNicholson: 16 completed passesSpittal: 22 completed passesBair: 5 completed passes115516221173819714KellyCaseyMugabiMcGinnO'DonnellDevineZdravkovskiMillerNicholsonSpittalBairStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Livingston

FromToPasses
NottinghamSean Kelly6
Sean KellyNouble6
McGovernDevlin6
DevlinShinnie6
YengiCarson5

Motherwell

FromToPasses
MugabiCasey16
CaseyDevine14
McGinnO'Donnell13
O'DonnellMiller10
McGinnMugabi9

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Livingston

5−0.74−3.35−1.78+2.67+0.65−2.27+2.75−2.76−1.360.03−2.24+0.43−2.95−1.12−2.54+0.43+1.330.06+0.82−1.11−0.81+0.21−1.20−3.12+1.10−0.30−0.70−0.31+0.48−7.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 27 matches

Motherwell

0−4.77−0.48+2.13−4.25−2.16−1.15−2.37−0.74−1.66+0.86+2.26+0.73−4.96+0.80−3.83+0.12−1.11−3.72+0.12+0.210.00−1.52−0.610.00−0.40−0.70−0.51+0.410−6.12−6.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 27 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Livingston

0.010.010.030.010.030.010.010.010.010.020.040.040.040.02−0.010.020.030.01−0.010.010.010.020.050.220.17LessMore

Motherwell

0.010.020.010.030.010.030.010.060.020.060.080.040.070.040.020.030.010.050.09−0.04−0.030.080.09−0.05−0.040.44LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackLivingston0.98 → 0.98Motherwell1.16 → 1.19Defence (lower is better)Livingston1.44 → 1.46Motherwell1.38 → 1.37

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Livingston
11th19%14%−5
Bottom73%83%+10
Motherwell
Top six5%9%+4
11th5%3%−2
Bottom1%<1%−1
Ross County
11th42%47%+5
Bottom16%11%−5
St. Johnstone
11th29%32%+3
Bottom10%6%−4

From the forecast before the match (28 February 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

LivingstonMotherwell
Expected goals1.261.18
Win38%34%
Expected Points1.411.30
Clean sheet31%28%

Livingston 38%Draw 29%Motherwell 34%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 50%.

Motherwell goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+9%10%6%2%8%3%7%8%5%2%3%3%2%1%10%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 28 February 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowLivingston winDrawMotherwell win
Livingston
11th19%25%17%14%
Bottom73%62%76%83%
Motherwell
Top six5%2%4%9%
11th5%8%6%3%
Bottom1%2%1%<1%
Ross County
11th42%36%45%47%
Bottom16%21%14%11%
St. Johnstone
11th29%27%28%32%
Bottom10%14%9%6%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Livingston

  1. L2–324 FebRoss County (A)xG 1.13–1.06
  2. W1–017 FebSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.97–2.07
  3. L0–17 FebKilmarnock (A)xG 0.72–0.75
  4. L0–33 FebRangers (A)xG 0.00–2.68
  5. D2–230 JanRoss County (H)xG 1.34–0.73
  6. L1–427 JanDundee FC (H)xG 2.22–1.11

Motherwell

  1. L1–325 FebCeltic (H)xG 0.69–2.87
  2. L0–217 FebHearts (A)xG 0.46–1.71
  3. D3–314 FebAberdeen (A)xG 2.56–1.44
  4. W5–06 FebRoss County (H)xG 2.91–1.05
  5. D1–13 FebKilmarnock (H)xG 1.14–0.24
  6. D1–127 JanSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.87–0.82

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

LivingstonMotherwell
Position12th10th
Played2727
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠7–⁠175–⁠11–⁠11
Points16 (0.59 per game)26 (0.96 per game)
Expected Points per game1.231.20
Goals18–⁠4536–⁠44
xG per game0.97–⁠1.331.19–⁠1.48
Home: points, xG per game0.85, 1.20–⁠1.231.14, 1.31–⁠1.41
Away: points, xG per game0.36, 0.76–⁠1.430.77, 1.07–⁠1.55
ManagerDavid Martindale (126)Stuart Kettlewell (41)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackLivingston0.98, 10thMotherwell1.16, 6thDefence (lower is better)Livingston1.44, 9thMotherwell1.38, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebLivingston attack: 0.98Motherwell attack: 1.161.160.98MotherwellLivingstonDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebLivingston defence: 1.44Motherwell defence: 1.381.441.38

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

LivingstonMotherwell
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−45%−4%−11%+17%
Counter-attacks−21%−2%+31%−22%
Set pieces−19%+5%−29%+8%
Penalties+32%−6%−6%−6%
Headers−29%−19%−17%+41%
Left side−43%+6%−23%+33%
Centre−25%−7%+6%+7%
Right side−50%+2%−38%−3%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdMotherwell concededLeft side−43%−3%Centre−25%+7%Right side−50%+33%Open play−45%+17%Counter-attacks−21%−22%Set pieces−19%+8%Headers−29%+41%

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdLivingston concededLeft side−23%+2%Centre+6%−7%Right side−38%+6%Open play−11%−4%Counter-attacks+31%−2%Set pieces−29%+5%Headers−17%−19%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

LivingstonMotherwell

0.97xG1.19
1.33xG against1.48
44%Possession44%
9.4Shots10.6
13.4Shots against13.6
2.3Shots on target3.8
1.3Big chances1.9
17.2Touches in the opposition box19.2
325Passes340
62%Pass accuracy65%
3.4Corners4.4
42%Field tilt43%
27.3Final-third entries30.1
7.4Box entries9.5
14.4Passes per defensive action15.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level510.821.25
Ahead71.211.51
Behind321.171.42

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level480.941.40
Ahead141.391.76
Behind291.521.48

xG by period

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.211–3
16–300.080.162–8
31–450.200.143–7
46–600.130.293–8
61–750.170.184–5
76–900.320.365–14

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.124–5
16–300.170.206–10
31–450.210.236–4
46–600.100.311–7
61–750.240.285–8
76–900.340.3414–10

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Livingston

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTGeorge 21Hamilton 4McGovern 2Nottingham 10de Lucas 10Shinnie 3Obileye 21Devlin 17Sean Kelly 7Parkes 3Brandon 15Mackay 4Nouble 3Holt 24Penrice 7Carson 3Shinnie 12Pittman 4Sean Kelly 2Penrice 15Sangare 3Shinnie 2Pittman 13Sangare 4Bradley 4Nouble 9Stephen Kelly 7Anderson 7Nouble 9Guthrie 9Anderson 53-4-2-1 in 8 of 27 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (8), 3-4-1-2 (7), 3-5-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-3-1-2 (2), 4-3-3 (1), 4-5-1 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 4-3-2-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

Motherwell

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTKelly 27McGinn 17O'Donnell 5Mugabi 23Butcher 7Casey 18Blaney 11O'Donnell 17Spencer 5Devine 3Spittal 12Miller 9Zdravkovski 6Paton 10Spencer 6Gent 3Gent 7Slattery 7Spencer 5Bair 9Slattery 9Paton 8Spittal 11Zdravkovski 4Biereth 3Bair 11Biereth 6Wilkinson 33-4-2-1 in 6 of 27 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (6), 3-4-3 (6), 3-5-2 (5), 3-1-4-2 (3), 5-4-1 (2), 3-5-1-1 (2), 5-3-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
30 December 2023Motherwell3–1LivingstonxG 1.48–0.94
7 October 2023Livingston2–0MotherwellxG 2.59–0.06
24 May 2023Livingston1–1MotherwellxG 0.70–0.47
8 April 2023Motherwell3–0LivingstonxG 1.59–0.84
2 January 2023Livingston1–1MotherwellxG 2.40–1.82
20 August 2022Motherwell1–0LivingstonxG 1.43–0.27

12 league meetings since 2020/21: Livingston won 1, Motherwell won 7, and 4 were drawn. Goals 12–22 and xG 1.18–1.22 per game.

Key players

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Anderson121,379500.330.06
Mackay5529110.120.21
Sean Kelly10893300.280.05
Guthrie111,073110.170.05

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Biereth111,022650.360.22
Bair201,6611030.410.10
Spittal262,340680.160.23
Wilkinson7648310.160.12

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.