Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Ross County 3–2 Livingston

Saturday 24 February 2024, 15:00 · Global Energy Stadium · Round 27 · Half-time 2–0 · Referee David Dickinson · Attendance 3,506

Ross County Brophy 21', 27', Sims 90+2'

Livingston Anderson 47', 86'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Ross CountyLivingston
Goals32
xG1.061.13
Expected Points1.301.38

Ross County 32%Draw 33%Livingston 35%

Most likely score 1–1, 18%. Final score 3–2, 1%.

Livingston goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+10%11%6%2%12%9%3%6%8%5%2%2%2%1%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTKing on for Jenks, 68'Sims on for Brophy, 77'Brown on for Loturi, 87'Anderson on for Stephen Kelly and Mackay on for Shinnie, 46'Sean Kelly on for Sangare, 59'Guthrie on for Brandon, 83'Brophy 21'Brophy 27'Sims 90+2'Anderson 47'Anderson 86'Livingston 1.13Ross County 1.0600.511.50153045607590HTKing on for Jenks, 68'Sims on for Brophy, 77'Brown on for Loturi, 87'Anderson on for Stephen Kelly and Mackay on for Shinnie, 46'Sean Kelly on for Sangare, 59'Guthrie on for Brandon, 83'Brophy 21'Brophy 27'Sims 90+2'Anderson 47'Anderson 86'1.131.06Ross CountyLivingston

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Ross CountyLivingston

1.06 +0.21xG1.13 +0.16
1.77 +0.95xG on target1.18 +0.39
13 +2.9Shots18 +9.0
6 +2.8Shots on target6 +3.8
1 −0.4Big chances0 −1.3
15 −2Touches in the opposition box28 +11
52% +8Possession48% +4
324 −16Passes304 −22
69% +3Pass accuracy63% +1
51% +7Field tilt49% +7
40 +9Final-third entries22 −6
6 −3.2Box entries9 +1.6
10.5 −4Passes per defensive action11.3 −3
6 +1.2Corners4 +0.6
11 −3Tackles29 +13
12 +2.7Interceptions4 −3.2
32 +6Clearances14 −10
4 −0.2Saves3 +0.1
11 −2Fouls15 +3
0 −1.6Offsides1 −0.9

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Ross County

White 15', 0.14 xGBrophy 6', 0.05 xGMurray 67', 0.04 xGWhite 33', 0.03 xGJenks 59', 0.03 xGWhite 83', 0.03 xGLeak 13', 0.02 xGBrophy 39', 0.02 xGLoturi 13', 0.01 xGJenks 17', 0.01 xGBrophy 21', 0.43 xG, goalSims 90+2', 0.18 xG, goalBrophy 27', 0.07 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals16%0.17 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals30%0.32 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.32 xG, 2 goals48%0.50 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.50 xG, 1 goal6%0.06 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals

Livingston

Yengi 34', 0.23 xGHolt 61', 0.14 xGShinnie 8', 0.11 xGHolt 61', 0.07 xGYengi 34', 0.06 xGYengi 70', 0.06 xGBrandon 10', 0.05 xGYengi 60', 0.04 xGYengi 61', 0.04 xGHolt 71', 0.04 xGYengi 90+5', 0.04 xGHolt 8', 0.03 xGNottingham 29', 0.03 xGGuthrie 90+4', 0.02 xGSangare 34', 0.01 xGCarson 44', 0.01 xGAnderson 86', 0.10 xG, goalAnderson 47', 0.04 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals62%0.70 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 0.70 xG, 2 goals11%0.12 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals26%0.29 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.29 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Ross CountyLivingston

0.56 9 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.69 12 shots, 1 goal
0.43 1 shot, 1 goalCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.07 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.44 6 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
27 min (28%) · Ross County 0.84, Livingston 0.19 xG
Ross County ahead
68 min (72%) · Ross County 0.22, Livingston 0.94 xG

Line-ups

4028422421141243271526WickensAyinaLeakEfeteJenksLoturiSheafReidBrophyMurrayWhiteYellow cardGoalGoalYellow card68'87'77'Ross County 3-4-2-1Don Cowie1122162041819221033GeorgeBrandonNottinghamObileyeSangareCarsonHoltNoubleShinnieStephen KellyYengiYellow card83'59'46'46'Livingston 4-2-3-1David Martindale

Ross County substitutes

  • 68' King for Jenks
  • 77' Sims for Brophy · goal 90+2'
  • 87' Brown for Loturi

Livingston substitutes

  • 46' Anderson for Stephen Kelly · goal 47', goal 86'
  • 46' Mackay for Shinnie
  • 59' Sean Kelly for Sangare
  • 83' Guthrie for Brandon

Players

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
WickensGK900.000.0100.0631
AyinaCB900.000.0210.04715
LeakCB900.020.0100.09712
EfeteCB900.000.0510.07107
JenksRWB680.040.000−0.0104
LoturiCM870.010.0110.0156
Sheaf CM900.000.0100.0761
ReidLWB900.000.0220.0336
BrophyAM7720.570.0610.1250
Murray AM9020.040.5330.0651
WhiteST9010.200.0310.0138
KingMF220.000.1200.0000
SimsFW1310.180.0000.0211
BrownMF30.000.0000.0110

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GeorgeGK900.000.0000.0112
BrandonRB830.050.0210.12108
Nottingham CB900.030.0720.0565
ObileyeCB900.000.1000.1255
SangareLB590.010.0500.0126
CarsonDM900.010.0100.0324
HoltDM900.280.3220.3233
NoubleRW900.000.0300.0223
ShinnieAM460.110.001−0.0102
Stephen KellyLW460.000.0510.0501
YengiST9010.470.122−0.0514
AndersonFW4420.140.0200.0500
MackayFW440.000.000−0.0412
Sean KellyDF310.000.1210.0342
GuthrieFW70.020.0500.0410

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Ross County

Leak and Jenks: 4 passesJenks and Loturi: 4 passesReid and Murray: 4 passesWickens and Ayina: 5 passesAyina and Loturi: 5 passesLeak and White: 5 passesJenks and Reid: 5 passesReid and White: 5 passesBrophy and White: 5 passesBrophy and Murray: 5 passesEfete and Ayina: 6 passesEfete and White: 6 passesAyina and Leak: 6 passesSheaf and Brophy: 6 passesAyina and Sheaf: 7 passesLeak and Reid: 7 passesWhite and Murray: 7 passesLeak and Loturi: 9 passesReid and Loturi: 10 passesEfete and Brophy: 13 passesEfete and Loturi: 14 passesEfete and Sheaf: 18 passesWickens: 10 completed passesEfete: 38 completed passesAyina: 21 completed passesLeak: 22 completed passesJenks: 11 completed passesReid: 25 completed passesSheaf: 19 completed passesLoturi: 29 completed passesBrophy: 11 completed passesWhite: 13 completed passesMurray: 8 completed passes4024284221431214272615WickensEfeteAyinaLeakJenksReidSheafLoturiBrophyWhiteMurrayStarters until 68' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Livingston

George and Obileye: 3 passesBrandon and Carson: 3 passesBrandon and Holt: 3 passesBrandon and Yengi: 3 passesObileye and Stephen Kelly: 3 passesSangare and Shinnie: 3 passesSangare and Stephen Kelly: 3 passesHolt and Yengi: 3 passesNouble and Yengi: 3 passesNottingham and Holt: 4 passesSangare and Holt: 4 passesHolt and Stephen Kelly: 5 passesStephen Kelly and Yengi: 5 passesHolt and Shinnie: 6 passesBrandon and Nouble: 7 passesGeorge: 4 completed passesBrandon: 12 completed passesNottingham: 10 completed passesObileye: 9 completed passesSangare: 10 completed passesCarson: 5 completed passesHolt: 16 completed passesNouble: 5 completed passesShinnie: 6 completed passesStephen Kelly: 10 completed passesYengi: 9 completed passes1122162041819221033GeorgeBrandonNottinghamObileyeSangareCarsonHoltNoubleShinnieStephen KellyYengiStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Ross County

FromToPasses
EfeteSheaf14
EfeteBrophy11
EfeteLoturi7
LoturiEfete7
AyinaEfete6

Livingston

FromToPasses
BrandonNouble6
HoltBrandon6
BrandonMackay5
Sean KellyYengi5
NottinghamSangare4

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Ross County

4−0.36−1.421+5.48−1.75−0.44−3.94−3.26+0.19+1.616+6.43−2.04−1.22−1.66+1.36−0.26+1.440.01−1.32−1.94−1.13+0.23+1.42+1.21−0.60−2.31−0.20−0.50−0.81+0.53+2.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 25 matches

Livingston

6+0.37+0.35−0.59+2.75−2.33−1.310+2.413+5.97+1.18+2.94+0.47+1.16−0.18+3.71−2.70−1.82−1.13−2.34+0.90−1.91+0.20−2.32−1.21+0.10−0.31+0.30−0.30−0.61−6.68−8.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 26 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Ross County

0.030.010.020.060.010.030.020.020.010.020.010.090.03−0.010.020.060.070.03−0.010.010.020.02−0.15−0.01−0.010.16LessMore

Livingston

0.010.010.020.020.020.020.010.040.020.010.040.050.01−0.010.030.07−0.010.05−0.050.080.010.30LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.28AttackRoss County0.92 → 0.94Livingston0.97 → 0.98Defence (lower is better)Ross County1.60 → 1.60Livingston1.43 → 1.44

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Ross County
11th41%46%+5
Bottom33%17%−16
Livingston
11th28%18%−10
Bottom58%75%+17
St. Johnstone
11th22%25%+3
Bottom7%7%0

From the forecast before the match (24 February 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Ross CountyLivingston
Expected goals1.211.11
Win38%33%
Expected Points1.431.27
Clean sheet33%30%

Ross County 38%Draw 30%Livingston 33%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 48%.

Livingston goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+6%2%7%3%7%8%4%2%3%3%2%1%10%10%11%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 24 February 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowRoss County winDrawLivingston win
Ross County
11th41%46%43%32%
Bottom33%17%34%52%
Livingston
11th28%18%30%39%
Bottom58%75%58%38%
St. Johnstone
11th22%25%20%20%
Bottom7%7%7%8%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Ross County

  1. L0–217 FebDundee FC (A)xG 0.73–0.94
  2. L1–314 FebRangers (A)xG 0.54–4.94
  3. L0–56 FebMotherwell (A)xG 1.05–2.91
  4. L0–13 FebSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.58–0.54
  5. D2–230 JanLivingston (A)xG 0.73–1.34
  6. L0–127 JanCeltic (A)xG 1.08–2.02

Livingston

  1. W1–017 FebSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.97–2.07
  2. L0–17 FebKilmarnock (A)xG 0.72–0.75
  3. L0–33 FebRangers (A)xG 0.00–2.68
  4. D2–230 JanRoss County (H)xG 1.34–0.73
  5. L1–427 JanDundee FC (H)xG 2.22–1.11
  6. L1–22 JanHearts (H)xG 1.66–1.94

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Ross CountyLivingston
Position11th12th
Played2526
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠7–⁠143–⁠7–⁠16
Points19 (0.76 per game)16 (0.62 per game)
Expected Points per game0.901.22
Goals20–⁠4316–⁠42
xG per game0.85–⁠1.680.97–⁠1.34
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 0.84–⁠1.250.85, 1.20–⁠1.23
Away: points, xG per game0.57, 0.85–⁠2.020.38, 0.74–⁠1.45
ManagerDon Cowie (2)David Martindale (125)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.28AttackRoss County0.92, 12thLivingston0.97, 10thDefence (lower is better)Ross County1.60, 12thLivingston1.43, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebRoss County attack: 0.92Livingston attack: 0.970.970.92LivingstonRoss CountyDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebRoss County defence: 1.60Livingston defence: 1.431.601.43

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Ross CountyLivingston
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−24%+33%−46%−3%
Counter-attacks−59%+69%−19%−17%
Set pieces−34%−1%−21%+8%
Penalties−100%+1%+36%−3%
Headers−17%−7%−27%−18%
Left side−20%+24%−44%+4%
Centre−38%+39%−27%−6%
Right side−22%+6%−50%+3%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdLivingston concededLeft side−20%+3%Centre−38%−6%Right side−22%+4%Open play−24%−3%Counter-attacks−59%−17%Set pieces−34%+8%Headers−17%−18%

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdRoss County concededLeft side−44%+6%Centre−27%+39%Right side−50%+24%Open play−46%+33%Counter-attacks−19%+69%Set pieces−21%−1%Headers−27%−7%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Ross CountyLivingston

0.85xG0.97
1.68xG against1.34
44%Possession44%
10.1Shots9.0
16.1Shots against13.4
3.2Shots on target2.2
1.4Big chances1.3
17.2Touches in the opposition box16.6
340Passes326
66%Pass accuracy62%
4.8Corners3.4
44%Field tilt42%
31.2Final-third entries27.5
9.2Box entries7.4
14.9Passes per defensive action14.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level480.871.27
Ahead101.381.97
Behind310.622.23

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level520.821.21
Ahead71.211.51
Behind311.161.51

xG by period

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.151–3
16–300.150.283–8
31–450.130.401–9
46–600.150.226–5
61–750.120.254–6
76–900.170.395–12

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.070.211–3
16–300.080.152–6
31–450.190.143–7
46–600.130.302–8
61–750.170.184–5
76–900.330.364–13

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Ross County

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTLaidlaw 19Wickens 6Nightingale 14Ayina 6Dhanda 3Baldwin 19Leak 20Borthwick-Jacks… 2Borthwick-JacksonEfete 1Brown 23Efete 1Randall 1Randall 15Jenks 4Turner 4Allardice 10Loturi 8Dhanda 3Purrington 11Harmon 6Reid 5Dhanda 14Sims 4Loturi 3White 18Brophy 4Murray 24Dhanda 3Sims 13-4-1-2 in 12 of 25 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (12), 4-4-2 (6), 4-5-1 (2), 4-3-1-2 (2), 3-1-4-2 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

Livingston

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTGeorge 20Hamilton 4McGovern 2de Lucas 10Nottingham 9Shinnie 3Obileye 20Devlin 17Sean Kelly 7Parkes 3Brandon 14Mackay 4Nouble 3Holt 23Penrice 7Sangare 2Shinnie 12Pittman 4Carson 2Penrice 15Shinnie 2Sangare 2Pittman 13Stephen Kelly 6Sangare 4Nouble 9Anderson 7Shinnie 4Nouble 9Guthrie 9Anderson 53-4-2-1 in 8 of 26 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (8), 3-4-1-2 (7), 3-5-2 (3), 4-3-1-2 (2), 4-3-3 (1), 4-5-1 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-3-2-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
30 January 2024Livingston2–2Ross CountyxG 1.34–0.73
16 September 2023Ross County1–1LivingstonxG 0.87–0.17
6 May 2023Ross County2–0LivingstonxG 0.72–0.58
18 March 2023Livingston2–1Ross CountyxG 0.66–1.29
7 January 2023Ross County0–2LivingstonxG 0.86–0.90
8 October 2022Livingston0–1Ross CountyxG 1.73–0.53

12 league meetings since 2020/21: Ross County won 2, Livingston won 5, and 5 were drawn. Goals 13–17 and xG 0.87–1.07 per game.

Key players

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Murray241,898710.260.07
Sims6618000.230.06
White181,512310.200.04
Brophy4508110.150.07

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Anderson121,335300.330.06
Mackay5485110.130.23
Sean Kelly10862300.290.04
Penrice221,902020.030.19

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.