Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Hearts 1–0 Livingston

Wednesday 1 November 2023, 19:45 · Tynecastle Park · Round 11 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Chris Graham · Attendance 17,970

Hearts Vargas 79'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsLivingston
Goals10
xG1.910.21
Expected Points2.620.23

Hearts 82%Draw 16%Livingston 2%

Most likely score 2–0, 25%. Final score 1–0, 23%.

Livingston goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+9%2%6%6%15%4%6%1%2%23%25%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTGrant on for Devlin, 46'Oda on for Forrest, 62'Vargas on for Boyce, 69'Nieuwenhof on for Baningime, 76'Halliday on for Lowry, 90+4'Brandon on for Stephen Kelly, 68'Anderson on for Shinnie and Lloyd-McGoldrick on for Holt, 82'Mackay on for Welch-Hayes, 89'Vargas 79'Hearts 1.91Livingston 0.2100.511.520153045607590HTGrant on for Devlin, 46'Oda on for Forrest, 62'Vargas on for Boyce, 69'Nieuwenhof on for Baningime, 76'Halliday on for Lowry, 90+4'Brandon on for Stephen Kelly, 68'Anderson on for Shinnie and Lloyd-McGoldrick on for Holt, 82'Mackay on for Welch-Hayes, 89'Vargas 79'1.910.21HeartsLivingston

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsLivingston

1.91 +0.90xG0.21 −0.79
2.02 +0.84xG on target0.00 −0.92
24 +10.8Shots3 −5.9
10 +6.1Shots on target0 −2.3
1 −0.1Big chances0 −1.1
52 +26Touches in the opposition box10 −5
77% +20Possession23% −23
667 +203Passes206 −138
85% +9Pass accuracy49% −16
92% +36Field tilt8% −36
81 +38Final-third entries13 −14
27 +13.4Box entries4 −3.9
11.7 −1Passes per defensive action32.0 +20
12 +4.7Corners1 −2.4
9 −4Tackles17 0
2 −5.4Interceptions5 −5.4
7 −12Clearances45 +21
0 −2.7Saves9 +6.4
9 −3Fouls12 −2
0 −0.9Offsides1 −0.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Shankland 27', 0.30 xGKingsley 70', 0.13 xGForrest 3', 0.09 xGShankland 20', 0.09 xGKent 87', 0.09 xGShankland 39', 0.06 xGShankland 45+1', 0.06 xGForrest 13', 0.05 xGLowry 49', 0.05 xGGrant 66', 0.05 xGBoyce 25', 0.04 xGBoyce 32', 0.04 xGRowles 45+2', 0.04 xGShankland 54', 0.04 xGLowry 70', 0.04 xGVargas 90+1', 0.04 xGShankland 15', 0.03 xGKingsley 47', 0.03 xGNieuwenhof 81', 0.03 xGShankland 8', 0.02 xGShankland 61', 0.02 xGShankland 90+5', 0.02 xGKent 90+2', 0.01 xGVargas 79', 0.54 xG, goal44%0.84 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.84 xG, 1 goal31%0.59 xGCentral box: 10 shots, 0.59 xG, 0 goals4%0.08 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals21%0.41 xGEdge of the box: 9 shots, 0.41 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Livingston

Anderson 90+8', 0.13 xGSean Kelly 10', 0.06 xGStephen Kelly 4', 0.03 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals86%0.18 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals14%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsLivingston

1.21 16 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.21 3 shots, 0 goals
0.70 8 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
81 min (81%) · Hearts 1.72, Livingston 0.09 xG
Hearts ahead
19 min (19%) · Hearts 0.19, Livingston 0.13 xG

Line-ups

283215171465119910ClarkKingsleyKentRowlesForrestDevlinBaningimeLowryCochraneShanklandBoyceYellow cardYellow card62'46'76'90+4'69'Hearts 3-5-2Steven Naismith32145242922201881910HamiltonWelch-HayesDevlinSean KellyPenriceShinnieSangareHoltPittmanNoubleStephen KellyYellow cardYellow cardYellow card89'82'82'68'Livingston 4-3-1-2David Martindale

Hearts substitutes

  • 46' Grant for Devlin · 1 assist
  • 62' Oda for Forrest
  • 69' Vargas for Boyce · goal 79'
  • 76' Nieuwenhof for Baningime
  • 90+4' Halliday for Lowry

Livingston substitutes

  • 68' Brandon for Stephen Kelly
  • 82' Lloyd-McGoldrick for Holt
  • 82' Anderson for Shinnie · yellow card 90'
  • 89' Mackay for Welch-Hayes

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0000.0120
KingsleyCB900.170.0610.22140
KentCB900.110.0100.1235
RowlesCB900.040.0800.37294
ForrestRWB620.140.1410.29101
Devlin CM460.000.0300.0002
Baningime CM760.000.0200.0120
LowryCM900.080.4240.0352
CochraneLWB900.000.5950.49162
ShanklandST900.640.2110.1410
BoyceST690.080.1800.1710
GrantMF4410.050.3120.1851
OdaFW280.000.0310.0240
VargasMF2110.580.0410.0711
NieuwenhofMF140.030.000−0.0100
HallidayMF00.000.000––0

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HamiltonGK900.000.0100.0541
Welch-HayesRB890.000.0710.18111
DevlinCB900.000.0000.0228
Sean KellyCB900.060.0000.0346
Penrice LB900.000.0410.0936
Shinnie CM820.000.0700.0823
SangareCM900.000.0000.00012
Holt CM820.000.0000.0018
PittmanAM900.000.0000.0018
NoubleST900.000.0000.0223
Stephen KellyST680.030.000−0.0102
BrandonDF220.000.0500.0925
Lloyd-McGoldrickMF80.000.0100.0320
Anderson FW80.130.0000.0900
MackayFW10.000.000−0.0200

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Clark and Rowles: 5 passesRowles and Devlin: 5 passesKingsley and Shankland: 5 passesForrest and Lowry: 5 passesBaningime and Lowry: 5 passesKent and Cochrane: 6 passesKent and Baningime: 6 passesKingsley and Devlin: 6 passesLowry and Shankland: 6 passesCochrane and Shankland: 7 passesCochrane and Boyce: 7 passesForrest and Baningime: 8 passesRowles and Baningime: 9 passesKingsley and Baningime: 9 passesForrest and Devlin: 9 passesForrest and Shankland: 9 passesRowles and Lowry: 10 passesRowles and Kingsley: 12 passesCochrane and Lowry: 21 passesRowles and Cochrane: 22 passesKent and Kingsley: 23 passesKingsley and Forrest: 28 passesRowles and Kent: 30 passesClark: 8 completed passesRowles: 54 completed passesKent: 39 completed passesKingsley: 49 completed passesForrest: 33 completed passesCochrane: 35 completed passesDevlin: 15 completed passesBaningime: 26 completed passesLowry: 28 completed passesShankland: 13 completed passesBoyce: 10 completed passes281523171914651910ClarkRowlesKentKingsleyForrestCochraneDevlinBaningimeLowryShanklandBoyceStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Livingston

Hamilton and Devlin: 3 passesHamilton and Nouble: 3 passesWelch-Hayes and Sangare: 3 passesPenrice and Nouble: 3 passesWelch-Hayes and Devlin: 4 passesPenrice and Stephen Kelly: 4 passesHamilton: 10 completed passesWelch-Hayes: 8 completed passesDevlin: 7 completed passesSean Kelly: 5 completed passesPenrice: 8 completed passesSangare: 5 completed passesShinnie: 4 completed passesHolt: 6 completed passesPittman: 3 completed passesNouble: 1 completed passesStephen Kelly: 7 completed passes32145242920221881910HamiltonWelch-HayesDevlinSean KellyPenriceSangareShinnieHoltPittmanNoubleStephen KellyStarters until 68' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
KentRowles36
KentKingsley32
RowlesCochrane29
KingsleyForrest26
RowlesKent21

Livingston

FromToPasses
HamiltonNouble6
DevlinWelch-Hayes5
Sean KellyNouble4
PenriceNouble3
PenriceStephen Kelly3

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

0−6.62−6.48+0.54−1.111+2.44−2.11−3.07−0.19+2.64−2.37+1.64+0.26+0.44−3.04−0.32−3.20−3.42−1.84−1.51−0.53+1.51−0.20−1.41−1.50−0.710.02+1.51+0.310.04−9.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 10 matches

Livingston

6−1.518+10.631+15.711+3.59+2.96−1.17−2.84−0.710+2.59+1.43−4.84−2.01−3.73−3.64−3.04−0.64−1.10−1.92−1.52−2.51−1.92−0.60−0.80−3.01−2.01+0.21+0.60−0.71+0.90−0.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 10 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.010.030.030.020.020.040.040.040.080.050.140.060.010.080.070.100.020.120.190.27−0.020.050.190.44LessMore

Livingston

0.050.010.010.010.010.010.010.020.010.010.02−0.010.020.070.07−0.020.100.070.18LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackHearts1.22 → 1.26Livingston1.02 → 0.99Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.38 → 1.33Livingston1.43 → 1.46

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six50%58%+8
11th6%3%−3
Bottom2%1%−1
Livingston
Top six18%12%−6
11th18%21%+3
Bottom12%16%+4

From the forecast before the match (1 November 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsLivingston
Expected goals1.620.98
Win52%22%
Expected Points1.810.93
Clean sheet38%20%

Hearts 52%Draw 26%Livingston 22%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 50%.

Livingston goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+8%7%4%1%6%2%5%2%5%5%3%2%2%1%12%12%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 1 November 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawLivingston win
Hearts
Top six50%58%45%36%
11th6%3%7%9%
Bottom2%1%2%4%
Livingston
Top six18%12%19%29%
11th18%21%18%11%
Bottom12%16%11%7%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. L1–229 OctRangers (A)xG 0.24–4.03
  2. L1–422 OctCeltic (H)xG 0.73–4.01
  3. D2–27 OctHibernian (H)xG 1.25–1.32
  4. W1–030 SepRoss County (A)xG 0.98–0.40
  5. L0–123 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.19–1.59
  6. W2–016 SepAberdeen (H)xG 1.18–0.53

Livingston

  1. L0–228 OctDundee FC (H)xG 0.14–2.02
  2. L1–321 OctKilmarnock (A)xG 1.13–1.21
  3. W2–07 OctMotherwell (H)xG 2.59–0.06
  4. D1–130 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.98–0.62
  5. L0–323 SepCeltic (H)xG 0.94–2.61
  6. D1–116 SepRoss County (A)xG 0.17–0.87

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsLivingston
Position7th10th
Played1010
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠2–⁠52–⁠4–⁠4
Points11 (1.10 per game)10 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.151.27
Goals9–⁠119–⁠17
xG per game1.01–⁠1.621.00–⁠1.20
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.01–⁠1.551.00, 1.18–⁠1.21
Away: points, xG per game1.20, 1.01–⁠1.701.00, 0.82–⁠1.19
ManagerSteven Naismith (6)David Martindale (109)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackHearts1.22, 4thLivingston1.02, 11thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.38, 8thLivingston1.43, 9th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctHearts attack: 1.22Livingston attack: 1.021.221.02LivingstonHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctHearts defence: 1.38Livingston defence: 1.431.431.38

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsLivingston
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−9%+19%−46%−4%
Counter-attacks−24%−23%+4%−57%
Set pieces−31%+16%−26%−1%
Penalties−100%+83%+83%−39%
Headers−35%+6%−5%−3%
Left side−32%+2%−36%−13%
Centre−11%+21%−33%−4%
Right side−10%+18%−45%−4%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdLivingston concededLeft side−32%−4%Centre−11%−4%Right side−10%−13%Open play−9%−4%Counter-attacks−24%−57%Set pieces−31%−1%Headers−35%−3%

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdHearts concededLeft side−36%+18%Centre−33%+21%Right side−45%+2%Open play−46%+19%Counter-attacks+4%−23%Set pieces−26%+16%Headers−5%+6%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsLivingston

1.01xG1.00
1.62xG against1.20
57%Possession46%
13.2Shots8.9
13.9Shots against13.0
3.9Shots on target2.3
1.1Big chances1.1
25.8Touches in the opposition box15.2
464Passes344
76%Pass accuracy65%
7.3Corners3.4
56%Field tilt44%
42.9Final-third entries27.4
13.6Box entries7.9
12.3Passes per defensive action12.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level410.981.19
Ahead240.762.16
Behind261.301.80

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level520.840.94
Ahead121.690.82
Behind260.981.88

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.050.232–2
16–300.090.331–2
31–450.070.180–0
46–600.190.461–1
61–750.320.104–3
76–900.290.311–3

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.161–2
16–300.040.110–1
31–450.160.111–2
46–600.230.372–3
61–750.250.134–1
76–900.240.321–8

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTClark 10Atkinson 5Sibbick 4Offiah 1Kent 10Rowles 10Kingsley 7Cochrane 2Vargas 1Devlin 6Baningime 1Offiah 1Nieuwenhof 5Haring 4Grant 1Oda 5Forrest 2Vargas 1Boyce 3Shankland 2Nieuwenhof 1Vargas 4Lowry 3Cochrane 1Shankland 8Vargas 1Tagawa 14-2-3-1 in 8 of 10 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (8), 3-5-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Livingston

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTGeorge 10de Lucas 9Penrice 1Parkes 1Obileye 8Devlin 7Sean Kelly 3Montano 1Brandon 7Mackay 3Shinnie 6Holt 5Penrice 3Pittman 3Holt 4Penrice 4Sangare 1Sangare 3Pittman 2Stephen Kelly 2Anderson 6Guthrie 3Stephen Kelly 1Nouble 9Sangare 13-4-1-2 in 4 of 10 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (4), 3-4-2-1 (2), 3-5-2 (2), 4-3-2-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
29 January 2023Livingston0–0HeartsxG 0.34–1.63
12 November 2022Hearts1–1LivingstonxG 2.95–1.84
3 September 2022Livingston1–0HeartsxG 1.19–0.69
19 March 2022Hearts2–0LivingstonxG 1.20–0.61
5 December 2021Livingston0–1HeartsxG 1.25–1.84
25 September 2021Hearts3–0LivingstonxG 2.43–0.12

6 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 3, Livingston won 1, and 2 were drawn. Goals 7–2 and xG 1.79–0.89 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland10900300.270.19
Devlin7617000.070.14
Kingsley7636000.050.16
Vargas7608000.070.12

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Anderson6583300.270.01
Penrice8712010.040.13
Nouble10896010.120.04
de Lucas9838100.110.01

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.