Saturday 19 March 2022, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 31 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Euan Anderson · Attendance 17,957
Hearts Baningime 3', McKay 58'
Post-match
Result and Expected Points
Measure
Hearts
Livingston
Goals
2
0
xG
1.20
0.61
Expected Points
1.83
0.83
Hearts 50%Draw 34%Livingston 17%
Most likely score 1–0, 19%. Final score 2–0, 12%.
Own goals have no xG.
xG race
Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.
Match stats
HeartsLivingston
1.20 −0.20xG0.61 −0.36
1.34 −0.09xG on target0.68 −0.24
14 +1Shots6 −4
5 +0.4Shots on target2 −1.3
1 −0.9Big chances1 −0.1
29 +6Touches in the opposition box19 +2
61% +6Possession39% −1
483 +41Passes309 +4
80% +5Pass accuracy72% +9
46% −9Field tilt54% +15
46 +2Final-third entries33 +8
18 +5.7Box entries11 +2.8
14.1 +1Passes per defensive action15.8 0
6 +0.3Corners5 +1.2
13 −2Tackles15 −1
5 −3.3Interceptions13 +2.6
15 −1Clearances12 −10
2 −1.8Saves3 0.0
8 −4Fouls11 −3
4 +2.0Offsides2 −0.5
The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.
Chance locations
Hearts
Livingston
Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.
xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.
Game state
3'58'
1–02–0
0'HTFT
Level
3 min (3%) · Hearts 0.36, Livingston 0.00 xG
Hearts ahead
93 min (97%) · Hearts 0.83, Livingston 0.61 xG
Line-ups
Hearts substitutes
36'Cochrane for Baningime
70'Ginnelly for McEneff
83'Moore for Atkinson
83'Sibbick for Halliday
83'Woodburn for McKay
Livingston substitutes
63'Kelly for Oméonga
63'Chukwuemeka for Forrest
63'Soto for Bailey
74'Lewis for Penrice
74'Shinnie for Pittman
Players
Hearts
Player
Pos
Min
G
A
xG
xA
KP
xT
Prog
Def
Gordon
GK
90
0.00
0.00
0
0.03
3
0
Atkinson
RB
83
1
0.00
0.08
3
0.20
14
1
Halkett
CB
90
0.12
0.02
0
0.05
15
6
Kingsley
CB
90
0.15
0.01
0
0.21
8
2
Halliday
LB
83
0.00
0.10
1
0.00
4
4
Haring
DM
90
0.00
0.10
0
0.04
4
7
Baningime
DM
36
1
0.36
0.00
0
0.01
0
2
McEneff
RW
70
0.02
0.03
0
0.09
5
1
Boyce
AM
90
0.01
0.21
2
0.03
3
4
McKay
LW
83
1
0.12
0.18
3
0.27
15
0
Simms
ST
90
0.30
0.01
0
−0.10
1
6
Cochrane
DF
54
0.00
0.00
0
0.01
1
0
Ginnelly
FW
20
0.11
0.00
0
0.00
1
0
Moore
DF
7
0.00
0.04
0
0.09
2
0
Sibbick
DF
7
0.00
0.00
0
0.00
0
0
Woodburn
MF
7
0.00
0.02
1
0.02
2
1
Livingston
Player
Pos
Min
G
A
xG
xA
KP
xT
Prog
Def
Stryjek
GK
90
0.00
0.00
0
0.01
1
0
Devlin
RB
90
0.00
0.02
0
0.04
3
4
Fitzwater
CB
90
0.03
0.03
0
0.08
7
5
Obileye
CB
90
0.12
0.02
0
0.09
6
9
Penrice
LB
74
0.00
0.01
1
0.05
1
7
Holt
DM
90
0.00
0.02
0
0.05
5
6
Pittman
DM
74
0.00
0.02
1
−0.07
0
3
Forrest
RW
63
0.08
0.04
1
0.01
0
2
Oméonga
AM
63
0.00
0.01
0
0.01
3
3
Bailey
LW
63
0.00
0.00
0
0.00
1
1
Nouble
ST
90
0.00
0.29
1
0.08
3
3
Kelly
DF
27
0.00
0.01
0
0.03
1
2
Chukwuemeka
FW
27
0.00
0.01
0
0.07
4
1
Soto
FW
27
0.00
0.05
1
0.04
0
0
Lewis
DF
16
0.00
0.01
0
0.02
1
0
Shinnie
FW
16
0.37
0.00
0
0.10
0
1
Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.
Pass networks
Hearts
Livingston
Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.
Passing combinations
Hearts
From
To
Passes
Kingsley
Halkett
23
Halkett
Atkinson
19
Halliday
Kingsley
17
Gordon
Halkett
15
Kingsley
Halliday
14
Livingston
From
To
Passes
Penrice
Holt
9
Holt
Penrice
9
Stryjek
Fitzwater
8
Devlin
Nouble
6
Penrice
Forrest
5
The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.
Defensive actions
Hearts
Against its average of 30 matches
Livingston
Against its average of 30 matches
Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.
Threat
Hearts
Livingston
Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.
Ratings
The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.
League probabilities
Chance
Before
With this result
Change
Livingston
Top six
71%
58%
−13
Motherwell
Top six
42%
45%
+3
Dundee United
Top six
46%
48%
+2
From the forecast before the match (19 March 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.
Pre-match
As things stood before kick-off.
Forecast
Measure
Hearts
Livingston
Expected goals
1.52
0.98
Win
49%
24%
Expected Points
1.74
0.99
Clean sheet
38%
22%
Hearts 49%Draw 27%Livingston 24%
Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 49%.
From the forecast as it stood on 19 March 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.
League probabilities by result
Chance
Now
Hearts win
Draw
Livingston win
Livingston
Top six
71%
58%
72%
94%
Motherwell
Top six
42%
45%
42%
35%
Dundee United
Top six
46%
48%
45%
41%
Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.
The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.
Season to date
Measure
Hearts
Livingston
Position
3rd
5th
Played
30
30
Won, drawn, lost
14–8–8
10–7–13
Points
50 (1.67 per game)
37 (1.23 per game)
Expected Points per game
1.55
1.16
Goals
42–31
33–38
xG per game
1.40–1.25
0.97–1.29
Home: points, xG per game
2.00, 1.63–1.01
1.20, 1.10–1.29
Away: points, xG per game
1.33, 1.17–1.50
1.27, 0.84–1.30
Manager
Robbie Neilson (30)
David Martindale (53)
League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.
Ratings
This season
The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.
Strengths and weaknesses
Chances
Hearts
Livingston
Created
Conceded
Created
Conceded
Open play
+12%
+14%
−24%
−3%
Counter-attacks
+115%
−38%
−17%
+13%
Set pieces
−9%
+6%
+5%
+22%
Penalties
+75%
−50%
−50%
+50%
Headers
−9%
−18%
−28%
+25%
Left side
+36%
+6%
+9%
−8%
Centre
−20%
+2%
−19%
+6%
Right side
+44%
+31%
−30%
+14%
xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.
Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.
Season averages
HeartsLivingston
1.40xG0.97
1.25xG against1.29
55%Possession40%
13.0Shots10.1
12.9Shots against13.6
4.6Shots on target3.3
1.9Big chances1.1
23.5Touches in the opposition box17.4
442Passes305
75%Pass accuracy63%
5.7Corners3.8
55%Field tilt39%
43.6Final-third entries25.4
12.3Box entries8.2
13.1Passes per defensive action15.6
Per league match this season before kick-off.
Game state this season
Hearts
State
Minutes per game
xG per 90
xG against per 90
Level
43
1.50
1.11
Ahead
29
1.51
0.94
Behind
18
0.98
2.10
Livingston
State
Minutes per game
xG per 90
xG against per 90
Level
44
0.99
1.15
Ahead
20
1.10
1.38
Behind
26
0.85
1.46
xG by period
Hearts
Minutes
xG per game
xG against
Goals
1–15
0.20
0.20
6–6
16–30
0.13
0.15
6–2
31–45
0.27
0.19
8–5
46–60
0.32
0.17
6–6
61–75
0.29
0.27
10–8
76–90
0.18
0.27
6–4
Livingston
Minutes
xG per game
xG against
Goals
1–15
0.12
0.20
3–7
16–30
0.17
0.18
8–5
31–45
0.18
0.18
6–4
46–60
0.20
0.17
8–6
61–75
0.15
0.19
3–7
76–90
0.14
0.37
5–9
Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.
This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.
Digressive Celts