Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Hibernian 3–0 Livingston

Saturday 16 March 2024, 15:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 30 · Half-time 3–0 · Referee Nick Walsh · Attendance 15,912

Hibernian Obita 5', Maolida 7', Le Fondre 22'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianLivingston
Goals30
xG2.560.93
Expected Points2.470.38

Hibernian 77%Draw 16%Livingston 7%

Most likely score 2–1, 13%. Final score 3–0, 11%.

Livingston goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+1%1%6%7%3%6%1%5%1%5%6%3%2%2%11%13%11%11%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTWollacott on for Marshall, 46'Tavares on for Maolida, 56'Moriah-Welsh on for Cadden, 64'MacIntyre on for Le Fondre and Mayenda on for Youan, 78'Sangare on for Bradley, 36'Devlin on for Carson, 46'Anderson on for Yengi, 64'Guthrie on for Stephen Kelly, 80'Obita 5'Maolida 7'Le Fondre 22'Hibernian 2.56Livingston 0.9301230153045607590HTWollacott on for Marshall, 46'Tavares on for Maolida, 56'Moriah-Welsh on for Cadden, 64'MacIntyre on for Le Fondre and Mayenda on for Youan, 78'Sangare on for Bradley, 36'Devlin on for Carson, 46'Anderson on for Yengi, 64'Guthrie on for Stephen Kelly, 80'Obita 5'Maolida 7'Le Fondre 22'2.560.93HibernianLivingston

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianLivingston

2.56 +1.38xG0.93 −0.03
2.88 +1.68xG on target0.93 +0.15
14 +2.9Shots9 −0.5
4 0.0Shots on target3 +0.6
3 +1.2Big chances0 −1.3
32 +9Touches in the opposition box15 −2
57% +4Possession43% −1
476 +52Passes348 +25
84% +7Pass accuracy78% +17
63% +16Field tilt37% −4
44 +7Final-third entries22 −5
19 +7.4Box entries8 +0.7
12.9 −3Passes per defensive action14.6 0
3 −2.0Corners2 −1.3
15 +1Tackles14 −3
7 −0.6Interceptions9 +1.9
19 −5Clearances22 −2
3 +0.1Saves1 −1.9
13 +3Fouls16 +4
1 −0.5Offsides4 +2.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Obita 5', 0.27 xGLe Fondre 36', 0.19 xGMarcondes 47', 0.10 xGCadden 32', 0.09 xGMarcondes 51', 0.08 xGCadden 43', 0.05 xGLe Fondre 75', 0.05 xGMaolida 50', 0.04 xGCadden 51', 0.04 xGCadden 58', 0.04 xGNewell 86', 0.02 xGLe Fondre 22', 0.77 xG, goalObita 5', 0.56 xG, goalMaolida 7', 0.28 xG, goal63%1.59 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 1.59 xG, 2 goals20%0.50 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.50 xG, 1 goal10%0.26 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.26 xG, 0 goals7%0.18 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals0%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Livingston

Yengi 45', 0.22 xGAnderson 90', 0.15 xGYengi 58', 0.13 xGNouble 34', 0.12 xGObileye 79', 0.12 xGGuthrie 84', 0.08 xGSangare 49', 0.06 xGNouble 80', 0.04 xGGuthrie 90+4', 0.02 xG37%0.34 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.34 xG, 0 goals42%0.39 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.39 xG, 0 goals20%0.19 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.19 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianLivingston

1.60 9 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.57 6 shots, 0 goals
0.77 1 shot, 1 goalCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.18 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.36 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
5 min (5%) · Hibernian 0.56, Livingston 0.00 xG
Hibernian ahead
89 min (95%) · Hibernian 2.00, Livingston 0.93 xG

Line-ups

1125332123117201719MarshallCaddenFishBushiriObitaTriantisNewellYouanMarcondesMaolidaLe FondreGoalGoalGoal46'64'78'56'78'Hibernian 4-2-3-1Nick Montgomery112624341618101933GeorgeBrandonObileyeSean KellyMontanoCarsonBradleyHoltStephen KellyNoubleYengiYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardYellow card46'36'80'64'Livingston 4-1-4-1David Martindale

Hibernian substitutes

  • 46' Wollacott for Marshall
  • 56' Tavares for Maolida
  • 64' Moriah-Welsh for Cadden
  • 78' MacIntyre for Le Fondre
  • 78' Mayenda for Youan

Livingston substitutes

  • 36' Sangare for Bradley
  • 46' Devlin for Carson
  • 64' Anderson for Yengi
  • 80' Guthrie for Stephen Kelly

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarshallGK460.000.0000.0210
CaddenRB640.210.0810.1572
FishCB900.000.0000.0837
BushiriCB900.000.0100.0735
ObitaLB9010.820.0200.12127
TriantisDM900.000.1310.1776
NewellDM900.020.0820.1283
YouanRW7820.000.8440.2864
MarcondesAM900.180.040−0.0142
MaolidaLW5610.320.1200.2043
Le FondreST7811.000.6610.3231
WollacottGK440.000.0000.0110
TavaresMF340.000.0000.0851
Moriah-WelshMF260.000.0300.0211
MacIntyreMF120.000.0000.0120
MayendaFW120.000.0000.0000

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GeorgeGK900.000.0000.0331
Brandon RB900.000.1620.19211
ObileyeCB900.120.0000.0327
Sean KellyCB900.000.0000.0876
Montano LB900.000.0100.0151
Carson DM460.000.0000.0204
BradleyRM360.000.0000.0201
Holt CM900.000.0300.0823
Stephen Kelly CM800.000.1830.0423
NoubleLM900.170.0810.1071
Yengi ST640.350.0510.1511
SangareMF540.060.0710.0732
DevlinDF440.000.0000.0118
AndersonFW260.150.0000.0121
GuthrieFW100.090.0410.0502

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Bushiri and Maolida: 5 passesObita and Marcondes: 5 passesYouan and Maolida: 5 passesCadden and Le Fondre: 6 passesFish and Youan: 6 passesFish and Marcondes: 6 passesTriantis and Newell: 6 passesNewell and Marcondes: 6 passesNewell and Maolida: 6 passesMarcondes and Maolida: 6 passesCadden and Youan: 7 passesBushiri and Triantis: 7 passesTriantis and Youan: 7 passesMarshall and Fish: 9 passesFish and Triantis: 10 passesObita and Maolida: 10 passesMarshall and Bushiri: 12 passesObita and Newell: 13 passesNewell and Youan: 15 passesCadden and Fish: 18 passesBushiri and Obita: 20 passesBushiri and Fish: 29 passesMarshall: 17 completed passesCadden: 22 completed passesBushiri: 43 completed passesFish: 45 completed passesObita: 31 completed passesTriantis: 22 completed passesNewell: 31 completed passesYouan: 23 completed passesMarcondes: 15 completed passesMaolida: 17 completed passesLe Fondre: 7 completed passes1123352123117201719MarshallCaddenBushiriFishObitaTriantisNewellYouanMarcondesMaolidaLe FondreStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Livingston

Brandon and Obileye: 3 passesBrandon and Carson: 3 passesBrandon and Bradley: 3 passesMontano and Stephen Kelly: 3 passesMontano and Holt: 3 passesCarson and Bradley: 3 passesGeorge and Obileye: 4 passesObileye and Holt: 4 passesSean Kelly and Nouble: 4 passesSean Kelly and Montano: 5 passesBradley and Holt: 5 passesObileye and Sean Kelly: 7 passesStephen Kelly and Nouble: 7 passesBrandon and Holt: 8 passesSean Kelly and Stephen Kelly: 8 passesGeorge and Sean Kelly: 9 passesMontano and Nouble: 9 passesGeorge: 10 completed passesBrandon: 13 completed passesObileye: 10 completed passesSean Kelly: 18 completed passesMontano: 13 completed passesCarson: 9 completed passesBradley: 7 completed passesStephen Kelly: 12 completed passesHolt: 12 completed passesNouble: 9 completed passesYengi: 2 completed passes112624341610181933GeorgeBrandonObileyeSean KellyMontanoCarsonBradleyStephen KellyHoltNoubleYengiStarters until 36' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
FishBushiri17
BushiriObita16
BushiriFish16
FishCadden13
NewellObita12

Livingston

FromToPasses
GeorgeSean Kelly13
Sean KellyNouble9
MontanoNouble9
HoltBrandon9
HoltSean Kelly8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

5−0.14−3.54−3.12−2.35−2.611+4.76+0.76−1.46−0.28+1.04−0.31−1.97+1.64−1.77+1.46+2.64+2.21−2.03+0.30−1.83+1.82+1.10−1.51−1.10−0.72+1.71+0.61+0.71+0.211−5.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 29 matches

Livingston

6+0.59+1.921+5.64−2.511+4.58+1.03−1.44−3.53−4.34−2.110+4.81−2.65−0.75−1.010+5.64+0.21−0.95+2.01−4.25+1.92+0.30−0.82−0.21−2.10−0.90−0.30−0.60−0.30−0.71−4.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 29 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.010.010.010.010.030.020.020.030.040.040.030.060.060.010.020.060.040.080.120.090.100.160.060.020.030.48LessMore

Livingston

0.010.020.010.020.020.010.040.010.030.030.020.020.04−0.010.060.030.080.030.060.040.050.26LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackHibernian1.18 → 1.23Livingston0.97 → 0.95Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.36 → 1.33Livingston1.47 → 1.51

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Top six39%53%+14
Livingston
11th13%9%−4
Bottom84%90%+6
Dundee FC
Top six39%30%−9
Ross County
11th62%66%+4
Bottom13%9%−4

From the forecast before the match (16 March 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianLivingston
Expected goals1.600.92
Win53%21%
Expected Points1.840.90
Clean sheet40%20%

Hibernian 53%Draw 26%Livingston 21%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 49%.

Livingston goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+9%7%3%1%5%2%4%1%5%5%2%2%2%12%12%10%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 16 March 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawLivingston win
Hibernian
Top six39%53%30%17%
Livingston
11th13%9%14%22%
Bottom84%90%84%72%
Dundee FC
Top six39%30%46%52%
Ross County
11th62%66%61%53%
Bottom13%9%14%24%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. D2–213 MarRoss County (A)xG 1.33–1.14
  2. W2–02 MarRoss County (H)xG 1.27–0.35
  3. D1–128 FebHearts (A)xG 2.66–1.70
  4. W2–124 FebDundee FC (H)xG 1.94–0.35
  5. D2–217 FebAberdeen (A)xG 1.46–2.93
  6. L1–27 FebCeltic (H)xG 1.00–2.07

Livingston

  1. D1–12 MarSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.54–1.09
  2. L1–328 FebMotherwell (H)xG 0.92–1.25
  3. L2–324 FebRoss County (A)xG 1.13–1.06
  4. W1–017 FebSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.97–2.07
  5. L0–17 FebKilmarnock (A)xG 0.72–0.75
  6. L0–33 FebRangers (A)xG 0.00–2.68

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianLivingston
Position7th12th
Played2929
Won, drawn, lost8–⁠11–⁠103–⁠8–⁠18
Points35 (1.21 per game)17 (0.59 per game)
Expected Points per game1.141.21
Goals38–⁠4520–⁠49
xG per game1.18–⁠1.520.96–⁠1.32
Home: points, xG per game1.27, 1.26–⁠1.390.79, 1.18–⁠1.23
Away: points, xG per game1.14, 1.10–⁠1.660.40, 0.75–⁠1.40
ManagerNick Montgomery (25)David Martindale (128)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackHibernian1.18, 5thLivingston0.97, 10thDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.36, 6thLivingston1.47, 9th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarHibernian attack: 1.18Livingston attack: 0.971.180.97LivingstonHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarHibernian defence: 1.36Livingston defence: 1.471.471.36

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianLivingston
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−3%+9%−45%−3%
Counter-attacks−48%−26%−22%−7%
Set pieces−9%+9%−17%+5%
Penalties−49%+52%+18%−15%
Headers−19%−21%−30%−7%
Left side−6%−12%−41%+9%
Centre−16%+9%−28%−7%
Right side+6%+22%−47%average

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdLivingston concededLeft side−6%averageCentre−16%−7%Right side+6%+9%Open play−3%−3%Counter-attacks−48%−7%Set pieces−9%+5%Headers−19%−7%

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdHibernian concededLeft side−41%+22%Centre−28%+9%Right side−47%−12%Open play−45%+9%Counter-attacks−22%−26%Set pieces−17%+9%Headers−30%−21%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianLivingston

1.18xG0.96
1.52xG against1.32
53%Possession44%
11.1Shots9.5
13.8Shots against13.3
4.0Shots on target2.4
1.8Big chances1.3
23.0Touches in the opposition box17.1
424Passes323
77%Pass accuracy61%
5.0Corners3.3
47%Field tilt41%
36.9Final-third entries27.0
11.6Box entries7.3
15.5Passes per defensive action14.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.301.33
Ahead220.951.70
Behind241.171.70

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level500.831.21
Ahead90.931.60
Behind311.171.41

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.243–6
16–300.180.155–5
31–450.200.324–8
46–600.170.216–7
61–750.190.2611–8
76–900.290.349–11

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.202–3
16–300.080.152–8
31–450.190.164–7
46–600.120.283–9
61–750.160.174–6
76–900.310.375–16

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMarshall 28Wollacott 1Miller 19Whittaker 5Megwa 2Fish 28Bushiri 16Hanlon 9Triantis 3Obita 20Stevenson 8Levitt 1Boyle 10Youan 9Campbell 5Levitt 16Jeggo 11Moriah-Welsh 5Newell 25Tavares 12Youan 8Maolida 5Vente 23Doidge 6Le Fondre 4Boyle 8Marcondes 6Campbell 34-4-2 in 15 of 29 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (15), 4-2-3-1 (8), 4-1-4-1 (2), 4-3-3 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

Livingston

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTGeorge 23Hamilton 4McGovern 2Nottingham 11de Lucas 10Shinnie 3Obileye 23Devlin 18Sean Kelly 7Parkes 3Brandon 16Mackay 4Nouble 3Shinnie 12Penrice 7Carson 5Holt 26Pittman 4Sean Kelly 2Penrice 15Sean Kelly 3Sangare 3Pittman 13Shinnie 6Sangare 4Nouble 10Anderson 7Stephen Kelly 7Nouble 9Guthrie 9Yengi 53-4-2-1 in 8 of 29 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (8), 3-4-1-2 (7), 4-2-3-1 (3), 3-5-2 (3), 4-3-1-2 (2), 4-4-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1), 4-5-1 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 4-3-2-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
9 December 2023Livingston0–1HibernianxG 1.34–0.22
26 August 2023Hibernian2–3LivingstonxG 0.81–1.68
4 March 2023Livingston1–4HibernianxG 0.43–1.36
24 December 2022Hibernian4–0LivingstonxG 2.06–2.06
13 August 2022Livingston2–1HibernianxG 1.45–1.86
30 April 2022Livingston1–0HibernianxG 1.32–1.12

13 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 6, Livingston won 6, and 1 was a draw. Goals 23–17 and xG 1.47–1.34 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Doidge6643320.490.05
Marcondes6584200.350.17
Maolida7641410.410.10
Le Fondre4612410.440.05

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Yengi5501310.480.10
Anderson131,469500.310.07
Mackay7676110.140.17
Sean Kelly121,048300.240.05

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.