Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Livingston 1–2 Hearts

Tuesday 2 January 2024, 15:00 · Tony Macaroni Arena · Round 22 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee David Dickinson · Attendance 6,161

Livingston Shinnie 79' (pen)

Hearts Vargas 53', Shankland 64'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

LivingstonHearts
Goals12
xG1.661.94
Non-penalty xG0.871.15
Expected Points1.121.57

Livingston 27%Draw 31%Hearts 42%

Most likely score 2–2, 15%. Final score 1–2, 14%.

Hearts goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+2%3%2%2%8%2%2%10%7%2%4%5%3%1%12%14%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTMontaño on for Parkes, 46'Yengi on for Bradley, 62'Nottingham on for Devlin and Nouble on for Penrice, 68'Anderson on for Pittman, 84'Denholm on for Nieuwenhof, 89'Oda on for Vargas, 90+2'Shinnie 79' (pen)Vargas 53'Shankland 64'Hearts 1.94Livingston 1.6601230153045607590HTMontaño on for Parkes, 46'Yengi on for Bradley, 62'Nottingham on for Devlin and Nouble on for Penrice, 68'Anderson on for Pittman, 84'Denholm on for Nieuwenhof, 89'Oda on for Vargas, 90+2'Shinnie 79' (pen)Vargas 53'Shankland 64'1.941.66LivingstonHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

LivingstonHearts

1.66 +0.75xG1.94 +0.82
0.87Non-penalty xG1.15
1.49 +0.80xG on target2.40 +1.24
10 +1.0Shots10 −3.1
3 +1.0Shots on target5 +0.8
3 +1.9Big chances4 +2.9
22 +6Touches in the opposition box18 −8
53% +9Possession47% −8
373 +53Passes344 −109
67% +6Pass accuracy60% −15
62% +19Field tilt38% −15
33 +7Final-third entries22 −19
12 +4.6Box entries12 −0.2
12.6 −1Passes per defensive action14.6 +2
2 −1.5Corners3 −4.2
18 +2Tackles15 +1
5 −2.9Interceptions4 −2.7
10 −13Clearances25 +3
3 +0.1Saves2 −0.7
12 −1Fouls16 +4
3 +1.4Offsides1 +0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Livingston

Nottingham 83', 0.33 xGGuthrie 72', 0.18 xGGuthrie 45', 0.12 xGGuthrie 90+1', 0.08 xGBrandon 70', 0.05 xGGuthrie 86', 0.05 xGDevlin 40', 0.02 xGObileye 61', 0.02 xGBrandon 83', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals86%0.76 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.76 xG, 0 goals3%0.03 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals8%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals2%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Forrest 90+4', 0.29 xGSibbick 51', 0.19 xGShankland 34', 0.07 xGVargas 45+1', 0.06 xGVargas 46', 0.05 xGShankland 65', 0.02 xGShankland 37', 0.01 xGVargas 53', 0.36 xG, goalShankland 64', 0.12 xG, goal25%0.29 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.29 xG, 0 goals34%0.40 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.40 xG, 1 goal36%0.42 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.42 xG, 1 goal4%0.05 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

LivingstonHearts

0.45 5 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.26 4 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.69 3 shots, 1 goal
0.42 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.20 2 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.79 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
57 min (58%) · Livingston 0.14, Hearts 1.52 xG
Hearts ahead
41 min (42%) · Livingston 1.52, Hearts 0.42 xG

Line-ups

325641222182916828HamiltonDevlinObileyeParkesBrandonShinnieHoltPenriceBradleyPittmanGuthrieYellow cardGoal68'46'68'62'84'Livingston 3-4-2-1David Martindale2824321577819917ClarkKentHalkettKingsleySibbickHaringVargasNieuwenhofCochraneShanklandForrestYellow cardGoalYellow cardGoalYellow card90+2'89'Hearts 3-5-2Steven Naismith

Livingston substitutes

  • 46' Montaño for Parkes
  • 62' Yengi for Bradley
  • 68' Nottingham for Devlin
  • 68' Nouble for Penrice
  • 84' Anderson for Pittman

Hearts substitutes

  • 89' Denholm for Nieuwenhof
  • 90+2' Oda for Vargas

Players

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HamiltonGK900.000.0100.0971
DevlinCB680.020.0100.0553
ObileyeCB900.020.0000.0440
Parkes CB460.000.0000.0332
BrandonRWB900.070.1320.2122
ShinnieCM9010.790.0820.0369
HoltCM900.000.0310.0443
PenriceLWB680.000.3310.1141
BradleyAM620.000.0200.0631
PittmanAM840.000.0400.0813
GuthrieST900.430.0100.0323
MontañoDF440.000.0200.0965
YengiFW280.000.0200.0310
NottinghamDF220.330.0000.0420
NoubleFW220.000.0810.0340
AndersonFW60.000.000−0.0200

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0000.0000
Kent CB900.000.0000.0538
HalkettCB900.000.0000.0539
KingsleyCB900.000.0100.0537
SibbickRWB900.190.0100.0454
HaringCM900.000.0420.0723
VargasCM9010.470.0200.0641
Nieuwenhof CM890.000.0300.0334
CochraneLWB900.000.0500.0637
Shankland ST9011.000.0110.0411
ForrestST9020.290.1230.1982
DenholmMF10.000.0000.0000
OdaFW00.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Livingston

Parkes and Penrice: 4 passesObileye and Holt: 4 passesDevlin and Shinnie: 4 passesHolt and Pittman: 4 passesShinnie and Pittman: 4 passesShinnie and Guthrie: 4 passesDevlin and Brandon: 5 passesBrandon and Shinnie: 5 passesPenrice and Shinnie: 5 passesHamilton and Parkes: 6 passesPenrice and Pittman: 6 passesHolt and Shinnie: 6 passesShinnie and Bradley: 6 passesHamilton and Devlin: 7 passesObileye and Devlin: 7 passesPenrice and Holt: 9 passesHamilton and Obileye: 10 passesHamilton: 15 completed passesParkes: 15 completed passesObileye: 19 completed passesDevlin: 16 completed passesBrandon: 9 completed passesPenrice: 14 completed passesHolt: 18 completed passesShinnie: 25 completed passesPittman: 9 completed passesBradley: 7 completed passesGuthrie: 4 completed passes324651229182281628HamiltonParkesObileyeDevlinBrandonPenriceHoltShinniePittmanBradleyGuthrieStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Hearts

Kent and Shankland: 4 passesKingsley and Haring: 4 passesCochrane and Nieuwenhof: 4 passesShankland and Forrest: 4 passesHalkett and Sibbick: 5 passesHalkett and Haring: 5 passesKingsley and Forrest: 5 passesSibbick and Haring: 5 passesCochrane and Shankland: 5 passesHalkett and Cochrane: 7 passesClark and Kent: 8 passesKent and Sibbick: 8 passesKent and Haring: 8 passesSibbick and Shankland: 8 passesCochrane and Haring: 8 passesSibbick and Forrest: 11 passesCochrane and Forrest: 12 passesKent and Halkett: 14 passesKingsley and Cochrane: 16 passesHalkett and Kingsley: 19 passesClark: 12 completed passesKent: 25 completed passesHalkett: 31 completed passesKingsley: 27 completed passesSibbick: 26 completed passesCochrane: 29 completed passesNieuwenhof: 12 completed passesHaring: 23 completed passesVargas: 6 completed passesShankland: 11 completed passesForrest: 16 completed passes2824321198577917ClarkKentHalkettKingsleySibbickCochraneNieuwenhofHaringVargasShanklandForrestStarters until 89' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Livingston

FromToPasses
HoltPenrice9
HamiltonObileye8
ShinnieHolt6
BrandonShinnie6
PittmanShinnie5

Hearts

FromToPasses
HalkettKingsley13
KingsleyCochrane10
CochraneForrest10
HalkettKent9
KingsleyForrest7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Livingston

6+0.24−3.12−4.75−0.89+3.14−3.54−0.311+3.39+1.65−1.43−2.23−0.47+1.411+4.74−0.54−0.32+0.12−1.04−1.27+4.00−2.21+0.24+1.77+3.80−0.70−0.30−0.80−0.31+0.46−8.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 20 matches

Hearts

7+1.78+0.213−2.84−3.62−2.711+3.26+0.52−2.513+5.86−1.03−2.56+0.84−0.85−0.87+0.93−0.91−3.32−1.21−2.46+1.11−0.42+0.40−1.11−0.11−1.50−0.80−0.80−0.71+0.21+0.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 20 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Livingston

0.010.010.010.040.020.040.010.010.020.030.030.020.040.030.020.010.020.060.040.010.020.110.04−0.060.010.180.15LessMore

Hearts

0.010.030.010.020.010.030.020.030.030.020.01−0.010.060.030.020.010.070.030.05−0.010.18LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.27AttackLivingston0.96 → 0.97Hearts1.22 → 1.24Defence (lower is better)Livingston1.39 → 1.41Hearts1.28 → 1.27

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Livingston
11th21%18%−3
Bottom58%67%+9
Hearts
Top six98%99%+1
Ross County
Bottom14%11%−3
Motherwell
Top six8%8%0
11th18%18%0
Bottom8%6%−2

From the forecast before the match (2 January 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

LivingstonHearts
Expected goals1.161.20
Win34%36%
Expected Points1.321.38
Clean sheet30%31%

Livingston 34%Draw 29%Hearts 36%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 49%.

Hearts goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+7%3%8%3%1%6%8%5%2%2%3%2%10%11%10%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 2 January 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowLivingston winDrawHearts win
Livingston
11th21%24%21%18%
Bottom58%45%61%67%
Hearts
Top six98%97%98%99%
Ross County
Bottom14%19%14%11%
Motherwell
Top six8%8%7%8%
11th18%17%18%18%
Bottom8%12%8%6%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Livingston

  1. L1–330 DecMotherwell (A)xG 0.94–1.48
  2. D0–027 DecSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.93–0.25
  3. L0–223 DecCeltic (A)xG 0.00–3.66
  4. L1–220 DecAberdeen (A)xG 1.53–1.00
  5. D0–016 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 1.14–0.88
  6. L0–19 DecHibernian (H)xG 1.34–0.22

Hearts

  1. D2–230 DecRoss County (H)xG 1.87–1.54
  2. W1–027 DecHibernian (A)xG 1.30–1.85
  3. W2–023 DecSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.20–0.64
  4. W2–016 DecCeltic (A)xG 0.34–1.60
  5. L1–29 DecAberdeen (A)xG 0.33–1.74
  6. L0–16 DecRangers (H)xG 1.03–2.53

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

LivingstonHearts
Position12th3rd
Played2020
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠6–⁠1210–⁠3–⁠7
Points12 (0.60 per game)33 (1.65 per game)
Expected Points per game1.231.23
Goals11–⁠3022–⁠17
xG per game0.91–⁠1.281.12–⁠1.47
Home: points, xG per game0.78, 1.05–⁠1.121.50, 1.25–⁠1.35
Away: points, xG per game0.45, 0.80–⁠1.411.80, 0.98–⁠1.59
ManagerDavid Martindale (119)Steven Naismith (16)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.27AttackLivingston0.96, 11thHearts1.22, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Livingston1.39, 8thHearts1.28, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecLivingston attack: 0.96Hearts attack: 1.221.220.96HeartsLivingstonDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecLivingston defence: 1.39Hearts defence: 1.281.391.28

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

LivingstonHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−46%−6%−8%+4%
Counter-attacks−11%−24%−27%−11%
Set pieces−23%+7%−12%+14%
Penalties+14%−14%−71%+43%
Headers−26%−12%−34%−4%
Left side−34%+7%−10%−5%
Centre−33%−7%−19%−3%
Right side−48%−10%+4%+37%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdHearts concededLeft side−34%+37%Centre−33%−3%Right side−48%−5%Open play−46%+4%Counter-attacks−11%−11%Set pieces−23%+14%Headers−26%−4%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdLivingston concededLeft side−10%−10%Centre−19%−7%Right side+4%+7%Open play−8%−6%Counter-attacks−27%−24%Set pieces−12%+7%Headers−34%−12%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

LivingstonHearts

0.91xG1.12
1.28xG against1.47
44%Possession55%
9.0Shots13.1
12.8Shots against13.8
2.0Shots on target4.2
1.1Big chances1.1
16.3Touches in the opposition box25.5
320Passes453
61%Pass accuracy75%
3.5Corners7.2
43%Field tilt53%
25.7Final-third entries40.7
7.4Box entries12.2
13.7Passes per defensive action12.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level520.821.23
Ahead71.570.76
Behind320.931.47

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.211.20
Ahead290.801.64
Behind171.441.90

xG by period

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.231–3
16–300.090.172–4
31–450.120.141–5
46–600.160.292–6
61–750.190.154–3
76–900.260.291–9

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.203–2
16–300.200.295–2
31–450.090.191–1
46–600.150.312–3
61–750.300.157–4
76–900.240.334–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Livingston

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTGeorge 17Hamilton 3de Lucas 10Nottingham 6Penrice 3Obileye 14Devlin 16Sean Kelly 7Montano 2Brandon 10Nouble 3Mackay 3Holt 13Sangare 2Shinnie 11Pittman 5Penrice 4Penrice 11Holt 5Shinnie 3Pittman 9Sangare 3Nouble 2Nouble 14Guthrie 9Anderson 10Kelly 3Shinnie 23-4-1-2 in 7 of 20 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (7), 3-4-2-1 (6), 3-5-2 (3), 4-3-1-2 (2), 4-3-2-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

Hearts

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTClark 20Kingsley 8Atkinson 5Sibbick 4Kent 20Halkett 2Rowles 20Atkinson 5Forrest 5Oda 5Nieuwen… 12NieuwenhofDevlin 7Denholm 5Baningime 11Boyce 3Shankland 2Lowry 7Grant 6Haring 4Cochrane 11Lowry 3Vargas 3Shankland 18Forrest 2Kingsley 6Vargas 4Boyce 43-5-2 in 10 of 20 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (10), 4-2-3-1 (8), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
1 November 2023Hearts1–0LivingstonxG 1.91–0.21
29 January 2023Livingston0–0HeartsxG 0.34–1.63
12 November 2022Hearts1–1LivingstonxG 2.95–1.84
3 September 2022Livingston1–0HeartsxG 1.19–0.69
19 March 2022Hearts2–0LivingstonxG 1.20–0.61
5 December 2021Livingston0–1HeartsxG 1.25–1.84

7 league meetings since 2020/21: Livingston won 1, Hearts won 4, and 2 were drawn. Goals 2–8 and xG 0.79–1.81 per game.

Key players

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Anderson111,142300.350.05
Sean Kelly10818300.300.04
Kelly5499000.100.12
Penrice181,608020.030.19

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Boyce7631130.360.20
Shankland201,8001200.400.15
Lowry10733010.110.23
Cochrane131,170030.060.25

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.