Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Ross County 1–1 St. Mirren

Tuesday 27 February 2024, 20:00 · Global Energy Stadium · Round 28 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Chris Graham · Attendance 3,142

Ross County White 11'

St. Mirren Olusanya 86'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Ross CountySt. Mirren
Goals11
xG1.020.67
Expected Points1.760.84

Ross County 45%Draw 40%St. Mirren 15%

Most likely score 1–0, 36%. Final score 1–1, 34%.

St. Mirren goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+5%4%1%8%1%5%4%1%36%34%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTJenks on for Loturi, 58'Sims on for Brophy, 69'Harmon on for Sheaf and Brown on for Efete, 85'Henderson on for Murray, 86'Baccus on for Kwon and Scott on for Kiltie, 62'Ayunga on for Mandron, Olusanya on for Bwomono, and Brown on for Jamieson, 71'White 11'Olusanya 86'Ross County 1.02St. Mirren 0.6700.511.50153045607590HTJenks on for Loturi, 58'Sims on for Brophy, 69'Harmon on for Sheaf and Brown on for Efete, 85'Henderson on for Murray, 86'Baccus on for Kwon and Scott on for Kiltie, 62'Ayunga on for Mandron, Olusanya on for Bwomono, and Brown on for Jamieson, 71'White 11'Olusanya 86'1.020.67Ross CountySt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Ross CountySt. Mirren

1.02 +0.17xG0.67 −0.43
0.81 −0.05xG on target1.06 −0.14
6 −4Shots9 −2
1 −2.3Shots on target3 −0.4
1 −0.4Big chances1 −0.8
18 +1Touches in the opposition box12 −7
40% −5Possession60% +15
327 −12Passes485 +150
55% −11Pass accuracy67% +2
42% −2Field tilt58% +15
23 −9Final-third entries39 +6
7 −2.1Box entries8 −1.3
16.2 +1Passes per defensive action14.4 −2
3 −1.9Corners4 −0.8
13 −1Tackles15 +1
17 +7.6Interceptions7 −1.0
31 +5Clearances21 −2
2 −2.2Saves0 −2.8
13 0Fouls6 −5
1 −0.5Offsides0 −1.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Ross County

Henderson 90+4', 0.04 xGLoturi 9', 0.03 xGHenderson 90+5', 0.03 xGSheaf 14', 0.02 xGLeak 15', 0.01 xGWhite 11', 0.89 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals92%0.94 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.94 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals8%0.08 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Mandron 43', 0.11 xGScott 87', 0.10 xGBoyd-Munce 17', 0.04 xGScott 66', 0.04 xGJamieson 46', 0.03 xGAyunga 73', 0.02 xGBolton 85', 0.02 xGBoyd-Munce 90+2', 0.01 xGOlusanya 86', 0.31 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals63%0.42 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.42 xG, 1 goal9%0.06 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals24%0.16 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.16 xG, 0 goals4%0.03 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Ross CountySt. Mirren

0.97 4 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.56 8 shots, 1 goal
0.05 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.11 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
20 min (21%) · Ross County 0.99, St. Mirren 0.11 xG
Ross County ahead
75 min (79%) · Ross County 0.03, St. Mirren 0.56 xG

Line-ups

4024284243121418152627WickensEfeteAyinaLeakReidSheafLoturiKingMurrayWhiteBrophyYellow cardYellow cardGoal85'85'58'86'69'Ross County 4-3-3Don Cowie121322421615324911HemmingBoltonGogicFraserBwomonoKwonBoyd-MunceTanserJamiesonMandronKiltieYellow card71'62'71'71'62'St. Mirren 3-4-3Stephen Robinson

Ross County substitutes

  • 58' Jenks for Loturi
  • 69' Sims for Brophy
  • 85' Harmon for Sheaf
  • 85' Brown for Efete
  • 86' Henderson for Murray

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 62' Baccus for Kwon · 1 assist
  • 62' Scott for Kiltie
  • 71' Brown for Jamieson
  • 71' Ayunga for Mandron · yellow card 88'
  • 71' Olusanya for Bwomono · goal 86'

Players

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
WickensGK900.000.0000.0330
EfeteRB850.000.0100.0133
AyinaCB900.000.000−0.03117
Leak CB900.010.0400.00210
ReidLB900.000.1220.0713
Sheaf CM850.020.0400.0516
LoturiCM580.030.0300.0720
KingCM900.000.010−0.0124
MurrayRW860.000.0300.0723
WhiteST9010.890.0100.0924
BrophyLW690.000.0320.0203
JenksDF320.000.0000.0106
SimsFW210.000.000−0.0102
HarmonDF50.000.0200.0100
BrownMF50.000.0000.0000
HendersonMF40.070.0000.0101

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HemmingGK900.000.0100.0541
BoltonCB900.020.0300.16147
GogicCB900.000.0100.0785
FraserCB900.000.0500.1063
BwomonoRWB710.000.0500.06116
KwonCM620.000.0110.0011
Boyd-MunceCM900.060.0100.0335
Tanser LWB900.000.0200.0039
JamiesonRW710.030.0710.0720
MandronST710.110.020−0.0207
KiltieLW620.000.0100.0100
BaccusMF2810.000.0810.0811
ScottFW280.130.020−0.0200
BrownDF190.000.0010.0011
Ayunga FW190.020.0000.0000
OlusanyaFW1910.310.2210.0120

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Ross County

Wickens and Leak: 3 passesAyina and Loturi: 3 passesLeak and Brophy: 3 passesKing and Loturi: 3 passesKing and White: 3 passesLeak and Reid: 4 passesSheaf and Loturi: 4 passesSheaf and Murray: 4 passesSheaf and Brophy: 4 passesLoturi and White: 4 passesLeak and Loturi: 5 passesLoturi and Murray: 5 passesReid and Loturi: 6 passesLoturi and Brophy: 6 passesReid and King: 7 passesEfete and Ayina: 8 passesEfete and Sheaf: 8 passesEfete and Loturi: 14 passesWickens: 5 completed passesEfete: 22 completed passesAyina: 8 completed passesLeak: 9 completed passesReid: 14 completed passesSheaf: 11 completed passesKing: 11 completed passesLoturi: 24 completed passesMurray: 6 completed passesWhite: 6 completed passesBrophy: 9 completed passes4024284243121814152627WickensEfeteAyinaLeakReidSheafKingLoturiMurrayWhiteBrophyStarters until 58' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

St. Mirren

Hemming and Bwomono: 5 passesBolton and Tanser: 5 passesBolton and Boyd-Munce: 5 passesFraser and Boyd-Munce: 5 passesBwomono and Kiltie: 5 passesTanser and Kwon: 5 passesBoyd-Munce and Kiltie: 5 passesKwon and Jamieson: 5 passesTanser and Kiltie: 6 passesGogic and Boyd-Munce: 7 passesBwomono and Boyd-Munce: 8 passesTanser and Boyd-Munce: 10 passesBwomono and Mandron: 11 passesBwomono and Kwon: 12 passesBwomono and Jamieson: 14 passesGogic and Bolton: 15 passesGogic and Fraser: 15 passesFraser and Tanser: 15 passesBolton and Bwomono: 20 passesHemming: 12 completed passesGogic: 26 completed passesBolton: 36 completed passesFraser: 28 completed passesBwomono: 39 completed passesTanser: 24 completed passesBoyd-Munce: 25 completed passesKwon: 17 completed passesJamieson: 12 completed passesMandron: 12 completed passesKiltie: 13 completed passes113222423151624911HemmingGogicBoltonFraserBwomonoTanserBoyd-MunceKwonJamiesonMandronKiltieStarters until 62' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Ross County

FromToPasses
EfeteSheaf11
ReidKing7
EfeteLoturi7
LoturiEfete7
EfeteAyina7

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
BoltonBwomono12
BwomonoBolton12
BoltonGogic12
FraserTanser11
FraserGogic11

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Ross County

2−2.38+0.613−2.86+0.79+1.313+6.05−0.97−0.58+3.14−1.14+0.510+5.36−0.22−2.710+6.01−1.21−2.83−2.12−0.83+1.31+0.24+2.52−0.22+0.81+0.50−0.80−0.50−0.83−6.74−5.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 26 matches

St. Mirren

2−3.45−1.711−3.410+2.16+0.93−4.72−5.57+2.36−1.715+8.160.05+0.14+1.14−2.38+1.65+0.84+0.95+2.61−2.32−1.72−0.71−1.15+4.20−1.42−0.30−0.90−0.31+0.20−0.30−1.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 27 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Ross County

0.010.010.010.010.030.020.020.010.01−0.01−0.010.030.040.03−0.010.010.06−0.150.090.080.07LessMore

St. Mirren

0.010.010.010.030.020.030.020.020.030.040.050.050.040.050.040.040.010.020.020.040.01−0.02−0.01−0.020.09LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackRoss County0.94 → 0.95St. Mirren1.13 → 1.12Defence (lower is better)Ross County1.60 → 1.57St. Mirren1.27 → 1.28

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Ross County
11th42%45%+3
Bottom17%17%0
St. Mirren
Top six96%96%0
Livingston
11th20%20%0
Bottom72%72%0
St. Johnstone
11th30%28%−2
Bottom10%10%0

From the forecast before the match (27 February 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Ross CountySt. Mirren
Expected goals1.111.27
Win32%40%
Expected Points1.231.48
Clean sheet28%33%

Ross County 32%Draw 29%St. Mirren 40%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 49%.

St. Mirren goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+7%3%1%10%8%4%1%6%7%5%2%2%3%2%10%11%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 27 February 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowRoss County winDrawSt. Mirren win
Ross County
11th42%36%45%44%
Bottom17%9%17%24%
St. Mirren
Top six96%91%96%99%
Livingston
11th20%16%20%23%
Bottom72%78%72%67%
St. Johnstone
11th30%36%28%26%
Bottom10%11%10%8%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Ross County

  1. W3–224 FebLivingston (H)xG 1.06–1.13
  2. L0–217 FebDundee FC (A)xG 0.73–0.94
  3. L1–314 FebRangers (A)xG 0.54–4.94
  4. L0–56 FebMotherwell (A)xG 1.05–2.91
  5. L0–13 FebSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.58–0.54
  6. D2–230 JanLivingston (A)xG 0.73–1.34

St. Mirren

  1. W2–024 FebSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.94–0.70
  2. L0–117 FebLivingston (A)xG 2.07–0.97
  3. W2–07 FebDundee FC (H)xG 1.63–0.26
  4. W3–03 FebHibernian (A)xG 2.40–0.41
  5. L0–127 JanRangers (H)xG 0.61–1.34
  6. L0–32 JanCeltic (H)xG 0.18–3.62

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Ross CountySt. Mirren
Position11th5th
Played2627
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠7–⁠1411–⁠5–⁠11
Points22 (0.85 per game)38 (1.41 per game)
Expected Points per game0.911.26
Goals23–⁠4531–⁠30
xG per game0.85–⁠1.661.10–⁠1.34
Home: points, xG per game1.17, 0.86–⁠1.241.71, 1.06–⁠1.21
Away: points, xG per game0.57, 0.85–⁠2.021.08, 1.14–⁠1.48
ManagerDon Cowie (3)Stephen Robinson (22)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackRoss County0.94, 11thSt. Mirren1.13, 7thDefence (lower is better)Ross County1.60, 12thSt. Mirren1.27, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebRoss County attack: 0.94St. Mirren attack: 1.131.130.94St. MirrenRoss CountyDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebRoss County defence: 1.60St. Mirren defence: 1.271.601.27

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Ross CountySt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−24%+32%−29%−3%
Counter-attacks−43%+62%−16%−4%
Set pieces−36%+1%−28%−1%
Penalties−100%−1%+53%+15%
Headers−18%−11%−10%−9%
Left side−20%+21%−29%−2%
Centre−39%+39%−34%+9%
Right side−18%+5%−15%−26%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−20%−26%Centre−39%+9%Right side−18%−2%Open play−24%−3%Counter-attacks−43%−4%Set pieces−36%−1%Headers−18%−9%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdRoss County concededLeft side−29%+5%Centre−34%+39%Right side−15%+21%Open play−29%+32%Counter-attacks−16%+62%Set pieces−28%+1%Headers−10%−11%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Ross CountySt. Mirren

0.85xG1.10
1.66xG against1.34
45%Possession45%
10.2Shots10.7
16.2Shots against11.6
3.3Shots on target3.4
1.4Big chances1.8
17.1Touches in the opposition box18.9
339Passes335
66%Pass accuracy65%
4.9Corners4.8
44%Field tilt44%
31.6Final-third entries33.2
9.1Box entries9.3
14.8Passes per defensive action16.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level470.921.26
Ahead131.161.84
Behind300.622.23

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level420.881.31
Ahead251.501.31
Behind231.071.43

xG by period

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.151–3
16–300.160.275–8
31–450.130.391–9
46–600.140.216–6
61–750.120.254–6
76–900.170.386–13

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.136–4
16–300.130.191–5
31–450.170.227–5
46–600.230.196–3
61–750.150.203–5
76–900.250.408–8

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Ross County

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTLaidlaw 19Wickens 7Nightingale 14Ayina 7Dhanda 3Baldwin 19Leak 21Efete 2Borthwick-Jacks… 2Borthwick-JacksonBrown 23Efete 1Jenks 1Randall 15Jenks 4Turner 4Allardice 10Loturi 9Dhanda 3Purrington 11Harmon 6Reid 5Dhanda 14Sims 4Loturi 3White 19Brophy 4Murray 25Dhanda 3Sims 13-4-1-2 in 12 of 26 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (12), 4-4-2 (6), 4-5-1 (2), 4-3-1-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWHemming 27Fraser 24Bolton 7Gogic 27Taylor 19Dunne 4Strain 11Bwomono 5Fraser 3Baccus 12Kwon 5Jamieson 3Boyd-Munce 14O'Hara 11Kiltie 6Tanser 22O'Hara 4Boyd-Munce 1McMenamin 12Tanser 5Scott 3Mandron 12Olusanya 8Ayunga 5Kiltie 21Ayunga 3Mandron 23-4-3 in 13 of 27 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (13), 3-4-2-1 (7), 3-5-2 (6), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
9 December 2023St. Mirren2–0Ross CountyxG 0.94–0.62
28 November 2023Ross County1–0St. MirrenxG 0.66–0.24
18 February 2023St. Mirren1–0Ross CountyxG 2.34–0.63
5 November 2022Ross County3–2St. MirrenxG 1.14–0.59
13 August 2022St. Mirren1–0Ross CountyxG 0.25–0.35
5 March 2022Ross County1–0St. MirrenxG 1.23–0.31

12 league meetings since 2020/21: Ross County won 3, St. Mirren won 7, and 2 were drawn. Goals 9–16 and xG 1.00–1.20 per game.

Key players

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Murray251,988730.250.09
Sims6631100.250.06
Brophy5585310.220.07
White191,602320.200.04

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Jamieson4470100.230.24
Mandron141,262610.350.08
Kiltie272,190430.220.12
Olusanya8849210.280.05

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.