Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Ross County 2–2 Hibernian

Wednesday 13 March 2024, 19:45 · Global Energy Stadium · Round 19 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee David Munro · Attendance 3,892

Ross County Sims 42', Dhanda 90+8'

Hibernian Maolida 53', Le Fondre 77'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Ross CountyHibernian
Goals22
xG1.141.33
Expected Points1.191.44

Ross County 27%Draw 37%Hibernian 36%

Most likely score 1–1, 28%. Final score 2–2, 6%.

Hibernian goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+2%4%3%14%18%6%1%4%8%6%2%28%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTSheaf on for Khela, 60'White on for Brophy, 72'Brown on for Sims, 73'Dhanda on for Loturi and Harmon on for Reid, 82'Cadden on for Miller, 34'Le Fondre on for Levitt, 46'Hanlon on for Marcondes, 90+2'Sims 42'Dhanda 90+8'Maolida 53'Le Fondre 77'Hibernian 1.33Ross County 1.1400.511.50153045607590HTSheaf on for Khela, 60'White on for Brophy, 72'Brown on for Sims, 73'Dhanda on for Loturi and Harmon on for Reid, 82'Cadden on for Miller, 34'Le Fondre on for Levitt, 46'Hanlon on for Marcondes, 90+2'Sims 42'Dhanda 90+8'Maolida 53'Le Fondre 77'1.331.14Ross CountyHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Ross CountyHibernian

1.14 +0.30xG1.33 +0.15
1.37 +0.51xG on target1.85 +0.67
6 −3.8Shots11 −0.1
3 −0.2Shots on target6 +2.1
1 −0.4Big chances2 +0.2
16 −1Touches in the opposition box18 −5
44% 0Possession56% +3
365 +27Passes481 +59
72% +7Pass accuracy76% −1
42% −2Field tilt58% +11
33 +2Final-third entries47 +10
7 −1.9Box entries12 +0.5
21.8 +7Passes per defensive action26.4 +11
2 −2.7Corners6 +1.0
9 −5Tackles12 −2
8 −1.6Interceptions3 −4.8
31 +5Clearances20 −4
4 −0.1Saves1 −2.0
7 −6Fouls12 +2
1 −0.5Offsides2 +0.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Ross County

Murray 90+5', 0.07 xGLoturi 4', 0.04 xGBrophy 52', 0.03 xGWhite 90+7', 0.01 xGSims 42', 0.87 xG, goalDhanda 90+8', 0.13 xG, goal76%0.87 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.87 xG, 1 goal17%0.20 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.20 xG, 1 goal3%0.04 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals3%0.04 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Maolida 38', 0.17 xGLe Fondre 50', 0.12 xGObita 25', 0.08 xGMaolida 66', 0.07 xGMaolida 45+2', 0.05 xGFish 36', 0.03 xGCadden 38', 0.03 xGLe Fondre 62', 0.03 xGTriantis 67', 0.02 xGLe Fondre 77', 0.37 xG, goalMaolida 53', 0.36 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals91%1.21 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 1.21 xG, 2 goals2%0.03 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals7%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Ross CountyHibernian

1.10 4 shots, 2 goalsOpen play1.30 10 shots, 2 goals
0.03 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.01 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.03 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
67 min (66%) · Ross County 0.91, Hibernian 0.80 xG
Ross County ahead
13 min (13%) · Ross County 0.03, Hibernian 0.53 xG
Hibernian ahead
21 min (21%) · Ross County 0.21, Hibernian 0.00 xG

Line-ups

40245421121419432715WickensEfeteBaldwinLeakSimsRandallLoturiKhelaReidBrophyMurrayGoalYellow card73'82'60'82'72'Ross County 3-5-2Don Cowie12533216112320177MarshallMillerFishBushiriObitaLevittNewellTriantisMarcondesMaolidaYouanYellow cardGoalYellow card34'46'90+2'Hibernian 4-2-3-1Nick Montgomery

Ross County substitutes

  • 60' Sheaf for Khela
  • 72' White for Brophy
  • 73' Brown for Sims
  • 82' Harmon for Reid
  • 82' Dhanda for Loturi · goal 90+8'

Hibernian substitutes

  • 34' Cadden for Miller
  • 46' Le Fondre for Levitt · goal 77'
  • 90+2' Hanlon for Marcondes

Players

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
WickensGK900.000.0000.0222
EfeteCB900.000.0800.2236
BaldwinCB900.000.0200.09911
LeakCB900.000.0000.03413
SimsRWB7310.870.0100.0342
RandallCM900.000.1800.0815
LoturiCM820.040.0100.0113
KhelaCM600.000.0210.0142
ReidLWB820.000.0000.0241
BrophyST720.030.000−0.1420
Murray ST9010.070.1220.0312
SheafFW300.000.010−0.0121
WhiteFW180.010.051−0.1400
BrownMF170.000.0000.0100
HarmonDF80.000.0410.0710
DhandaMF810.130.0200.0331

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarshallGK900.000.0200.0621
Miller RB340.000.0610.2031
FishCB900.030.0200.12124
BushiriCB900.000.0210.0274
ObitaLB900.080.0100.0226
LevittDM460.000.0310.0221
NewellDM9010.000.2210.2775
TriantisRW900.020.1010.0784
MarcondesAM900.000.0410.0203
Maolida LW9010.650.0200.0411
YouanST9010.000.3920.2064
CaddenDF560.030.1120.2282
Le FondreFW4410.520.000−0.0300
HanlonDF00.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Ross County

Wickens and Murray: 3 passesEfete and Brophy: 3 passesBaldwin and Reid: 3 passesLeak and Randall: 3 passesReid and Randall: 3 passesEfete and Loturi: 4 passesBaldwin and Leak: 4 passesBaldwin and Khela: 4 passesLeak and Khela: 4 passesLeak and Loturi: 4 passesSims and Khela: 4 passesKhela and Murray: 4 passesLoturi and Murray: 4 passesBaldwin and Murray: 5 passesSims and Loturi: 5 passesKhela and Loturi: 5 passesEfete and Sims: 6 passesWickens and Leak: 7 passesLeak and Reid: 7 passesKhela and Brophy: 7 passesEfete and Baldwin: 8 passesReid and Khela: 8 passesBaldwin and Loturi: 9 passesReid and Loturi: 9 passesWickens: 11 completed passesEfete: 13 completed passesBaldwin: 19 completed passesLeak: 15 completed passesSims: 9 completed passesReid: 18 completed passesKhela: 22 completed passesRandall: 6 completed passesLoturi: 22 completed passesBrophy: 7 completed passesMurray: 10 completed passes40245421143192142715WickensEfeteBaldwinLeakSimsReidKhelaRandallLoturiBrophyMurrayStarters until 60' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hibernian

Marshall and Fish: 3 passesFish and Levitt: 3 passesFish and Triantis: 3 passesMiller and Triantis: 4 passesObita and Levitt: 4 passesNewell and Maolida: 4 passesLevitt and Triantis: 4 passesTriantis and Marcondes: 4 passesBushiri and Fish: 5 passesNewell and Triantis: 6 passesLevitt and Youan: 6 passesMarshall and Bushiri: 7 passesMiller and Newell: 7 passesObita and Newell: 8 passesMiller and Youan: 9 passesMiller and Fish: 11 passesBushiri and Obita: 13 passesMarshall: 9 completed passesMiller: 20 completed passesBushiri: 15 completed passesFish: 14 completed passesObita: 14 completed passesNewell: 15 completed passesLevitt: 11 completed passesTriantis: 16 completed passesMarcondes: 4 completed passesMaolida: 3 completed passesYouan: 13 completed passes12335211162320177MarshallMillerBushiriFishObitaNewellLevittTriantisMarcondesMaolidaYouanStarters until 34' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Ross County

FromToPasses
EfeteBaldwin8
BaldwinLoturi6
BaldwinEfete6
BaldwinLeak5
WickensLeak5

Hibernian

FromToPasses
BushiriObita12
ObitaNewell12
FishCadden12
BushiriFish11
NewellMaolida10

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Ross County

7+2.98+0.65−4.24−1.46−1.74−3.19+3.18+0.66−3.74−1.09+4.06+2.53−1.95−1.41−3.81−3.32−0.24+0.44−1.04+1.21−0.81+0.13+1.43+0.80−1.20−0.50−0.80−0.53+2.210−5.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 28 matches

Hibernian

8+3.03−4.712−4.611+4.07+2.815+7.63−3.40−5.54−3.57+0.84−3.14−0.34+1.25−0.47+1.41−4.82−1.40−1.930.03+0.43+1.21−0.20−0.92+0.56+4.10−0.80−0.30−0.40−0.40−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 28 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Ross County

0.020.010.020.010.020.010.050.020.010.020.010.030.040.010.020.050.04−0.05−0.010.07−0.01−0.310.05−0.020.26LessMore

Hibernian

0.010.010.020.060.010.030.010.020.130.050.020.030.010.020.100.160.010.01−0.01−0.02−0.050.020.220.180.17LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackRoss County0.94 → 0.94Hibernian1.18 → 1.18Defence (lower is better)Ross County1.58 → 1.58Hibernian1.36 → 1.36

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Ross County
11th62%65%+3
Bottom14%13%−1
Hibernian
Top six52%48%−4
11th<1%<1%0
Motherwell
Top six26%29%+3
11th<1%<1%0
Dundee FC
Top six19%21%+2
11th1%1%0

From the forecast before the match (13 March 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Ross CountyHibernian
Expected goals1.181.30
Win33%39%
Expected Points1.271.45
Clean sheet27%31%

Ross County 33%Draw 28%Hibernian 39%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 51%.

Hibernian goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+9%7%3%1%9%8%4%1%6%8%5%2%2%3%2%10%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 13 March 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowRoss County winDrawHibernian win
Ross County
11th62%57%65%64%
Bottom14%7%13%19%
Hibernian
Top six52%36%48%69%
11th<1%1%<1%<1%
Motherwell
Top six26%33%29%18%
11th<1%1%<1%<1%
Dundee FC
Top six19%27%21%12%
11th1%1%1%<1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Ross County

  1. L0–22 MarHibernian (A)xG 0.35–1.27
  2. D1–127 FebSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.02–0.67
  3. W3–224 FebLivingston (H)xG 1.06–1.13
  4. L0–217 FebDundee FC (A)xG 0.73–0.94
  5. L1–314 FebRangers (A)xG 0.54–4.94
  6. L0–56 FebMotherwell (A)xG 1.05–2.91

Hibernian

  1. W2–02 MarRoss County (H)xG 1.27–0.35
  2. D1–128 FebHearts (A)xG 2.66–1.70
  3. W2–124 FebDundee FC (H)xG 1.94–0.35
  4. D2–217 FebAberdeen (A)xG 1.46–2.93
  5. L1–27 FebCeltic (H)xG 1.00–2.07
  6. L0–33 FebSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.41–2.40

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Ross CountyHibernian
Position11th6th
Played2828
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠8–⁠158–⁠10–⁠10
Points23 (0.82 per game)34 (1.21 per game)
Expected Points per game0.931.13
Goals24–⁠4836–⁠43
xG per game0.84–⁠1.611.18–⁠1.53
Home: points, xG per game1.15, 0.87–⁠1.201.27, 1.26–⁠1.39
Away: points, xG per game0.53, 0.82–⁠1.971.15, 1.08–⁠1.70
ManagerDon Cowie (5)Nick Montgomery (24)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackRoss County0.94, 12thHibernian1.18, 6thDefence (lower is better)Ross County1.58, 12thHibernian1.36, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarRoss County attack: 0.94Hibernian attack: 1.181.180.94HibernianRoss CountyDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarRoss County defence: 1.58Hibernian defence: 1.361.581.36

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Ross CountyHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−24%+28%−5%+9%
Counter-attacks−45%+64%−47%−25%
Set pieces−39%average−7%+12%
Penalties−100%−12%−47%+58%
Headers−24%−17%−19%−19%
Left side−13%+16%−7%−9%
Centre−41%+37%−14%+7%
Right side−23%+3%−1%+24%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdHibernian concededLeft side−13%+24%Centre−41%+7%Right side−23%−9%Open play−24%+9%Counter-attacks−45%−25%Set pieces−39%+12%Headers−24%−19%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdRoss County concededLeft side−7%+3%Centre−14%+37%Right side−1%+16%Open play−5%+28%Counter-attacks−47%+64%Set pieces−7%averageHeaders−19%−17%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Ross CountyHibernian

0.84xG1.18
1.61xG against1.53
44%Possession53%
9.8Shots11.1
15.8Shots against14.0
3.2Shots on target3.9
1.4Big chances1.8
16.7Touches in the opposition box23.2
338Passes422
65%Pass accuracy77%
4.7Corners5.0
44%Field tilt47%
31.1Final-third entries36.6
8.9Box entries11.5
14.8Passes per defensive action15.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level470.941.25
Ahead140.951.62
Behind290.622.20

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level431.321.34
Ahead220.971.70
Behind251.121.72

xG by period

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.142–3
16–300.150.265–8
31–450.120.381–9
46–600.140.216–7
61–750.120.244–6
76–900.160.396–15

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.253–6
16–300.190.155–5
31–450.200.304–7
46–600.160.225–7
61–750.190.2711–8
76–900.280.348–10

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Ross County

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTLaidlaw 19Wickens 9Nightingale 14Ayina 8Dhanda 3Baldwin 20Leak 23Efete 3Borthwick-Jacks… 2Borthwick-JacksonBrown 24Efete 2Jenks 1Randall 15Jenks 4Turner 4Loturi 11Allardice 10King 5Purrington 11Reid 7Harmon 6Dhanda 14Sims 4Loturi 3White 21Murray 25Brophy 6Dhanda 33-4-1-2 in 12 of 28 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (12), 4-4-2 (6), 4-5-1 (2), 4-3-1-2 (2), 5-3-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1), 3-4-2-1 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMarshall 27Wollacott 1Miller 18Whittaker 5Megwa 2Fish 27Bushiri 15Hanlon 9Triantis 3Obita 19Stevenson 8Levitt 1Boyle 10Youan 9Campbell 5Levitt 15Jeggo 11Moriah-Welsh 5Newell 24Tavares 12Youan 8Maolida 4Vente 23Doidge 6Le Fondre 4Boyle 8Marcondes 5Campbell 34-4-2 in 15 of 28 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (15), 4-2-3-1 (7), 4-1-4-1 (2), 4-3-3 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
2 March 2024Hibernian2–0Ross CountyxG 1.27–0.35
31 October 2023Hibernian2–2Ross CountyxG 0.50–0.52
31 January 2023Ross County1–1HibernianxG 0.69–1.03
8 November 2022Hibernian0–2Ross CountyxG 1.14–0.70
1 October 2022Ross County0–2HibernianxG 0.66–1.66
19 February 2022Hibernian2–0Ross CountyxG 1.00–0.19

11 league meetings since 2020/21: Ross County won 3, Hibernian won 5, and 3 were drawn. Goals 9–14 and xG 0.68–1.42 per game.

Key players

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Murray262,074730.240.09
Sims6664100.240.06
Brophy7744310.200.06
White211,782420.230.03

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Marcondes5494200.410.19
Doidge6643320.490.05
Maolida6551310.370.11
Le Fondre4568310.390.05

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.