Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Motherwell 1–1 St. Mirren

Saturday 30 March 2024, 15:00 · Fir Park · Round 31 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Matthew McDermid · Attendance 5,877

Motherwell Bair 74'

St. Mirren Fraser 18'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

MotherwellSt. Mirren
Goals11
xG1.841.32
Expected Points1.770.96

Motherwell 50%Draw 28%St. Mirren 23%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Final score 1–1, 14%.

St. Mirren goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+2%2%2%8%9%3%8%10%3%4%6%4%2%1%2%1%14%13%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTMugabi on for Devine and Miller on for Halliday, 64'Nicholson on for Vale, 84'Blaney on for O'Donnell, 87'Taylor on for Bolton, 29'Bwomono on for Strain, 46'McMenamin on for Olusanya and Baccus on for Boyd-Munce, 61'Ayunga on for Mandron, 78'Bair 74'Fraser 18'Motherwell 1.84St. Mirren 1.3200.511.520153045607590HTMugabi on for Devine and Miller on for Halliday, 64'Nicholson on for Vale, 84'Blaney on for O'Donnell, 87'Taylor on for Bolton, 29'Bwomono on for Strain, 46'McMenamin on for Olusanya and Baccus on for Boyd-Munce, 61'Ayunga on for Mandron, 78'Bair 74'Fraser 18'1.841.32MotherwellSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

MotherwellSt. Mirren

1.84 +0.65xG1.32 +0.22
1.48 +0.11xG on target0.72 −0.54
16 +5Shots17 +6
4 +0.1Shots on target4 +0.6
1 −0.9Big chances1 −0.9
18 −1Touches in the opposition box19 0
58% +14Possession42% −4
510 +165Passes371 +29
74% +8Pass accuracy68% +3
62% +19Field tilt38% −8
30 −1Final-third entries26 −8
9 −0.6Box entries8 −1.3
16.5 0Passes per defensive action45.1 +29
4 −0.3Corners4 −0.7
17 +1Tackles10 −4
5 −2.8Interceptions4 −3.7
13 −11Clearances21 −3
3 +0.2Saves3 +0.3
9 −3Fouls8 −3
2 +0.8Offsides0 −1.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Motherwell

Halliday 35', 0.19 xGBair 4', 0.14 xGSpittal 80', 0.12 xGBair 35', 0.10 xGBair 5', 0.07 xGSpittal 89', 0.07 xGO'Donnell 47', 0.06 xGBair 49', 0.06 xGBair 36', 0.05 xGZdravkovski 45+2', 0.05 xGSpittal 40', 0.04 xGGent 4', 0.02 xGSpittal 38', 0.02 xGHalliday 54', 0.02 xGCasey 77', 0.01 xGBair 74', 0.82 xG, goal45%0.82 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.82 xG, 1 goal40%0.73 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.73 xG, 0 goals5%0.10 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals8%0.15 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals2%0.04 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Mandron 15', 0.31 xGOlusanya 44', 0.17 xGStrain 14', 0.12 xGTanser 90+6', 0.08 xGOlusanya 11', 0.07 xGTanser 34', 0.06 xGTanser 81', 0.05 xGStrain 11', 0.04 xGOlusanya 56', 0.04 xGOlusanya 7', 0.03 xGBaccus 65', 0.03 xGMandron 75', 0.03 xGAyunga 80', 0.03 xGMandron 12', 0.02 xGKiltie 22', 0.01 xGTanser 60', 0.01 xGFraser 18', 0.23 xG, goal41%0.54 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.54 xG, 1 goal20%0.26 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.26 xG, 0 goals13%0.17 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals26%0.34 xGEdge of the box: 7 shots, 0.34 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

MotherwellSt. Mirren

1.63 12 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.52 10 shots, 0 goals
0.20 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.80 7 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
40 min (41%) · Motherwell 0.43, St. Mirren 1.00 xG
St. Mirren ahead
58 min (59%) · Motherwell 1.41, St. Mirren 0.32 xG

Line-ups

121615211711372814KellyO'DonnellMcGinnCaseyDevineZdravkovskiHallidayGentSpittalValeBairYellow cardGoal87'64'64'84'Motherwell 3-4-1-2Stuart Kettlewell12132223615320911HemmingBoltonGogicFraserStrainO'HaraBoyd-MunceTanserOlusanyaMandronKiltieGoalYellow card29'46'61'61'78'St. Mirren 3-4-3Stephen Robinson

Motherwell substitutes

  • 64' Mugabi for Devine
  • 64' Miller for Halliday
  • 84' Nicholson for Vale
  • 87' Blaney for O'Donnell

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 29' Taylor for Bolton
  • 46' Bwomono for Strain
  • 61' Baccus for Boyd-Munce
  • 61' McMenamin for Olusanya
  • 78' Ayunga for Mandron

Players

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KellyGK900.000.0000.0440
O'DonnellCB8710.060.5210.27155
McGinnCB900.000.0100.0652
CaseyCB900.010.0000.0666
DevineRWB640.000.0200.0552
ZdravkovskiCM900.050.0100.0136
HallidayCM640.210.022−0.0613
GentLWB900.020.2540.48112
SpittalAM900.250.1010.0262
Vale ST840.000.0910.0526
BairST9011.230.0810.0322
MugabiDF260.000.0000.0112
MillerMF260.000.0100.0211
NicholsonDF60.000.0000.0000
BlaneyDF30.000.0000.0000

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HemmingGK900.000.0210.0642
BoltonCB290.000.0000.0113
GogicCB900.000.0000.0446
FraserCB9010.230.0100.0547
StrainRWB460.160.0100.0733
O'HaraCM900.000.011−0.0134
Boyd-MunceCM610.000.0210.0134
TanserLWB900.190.0510.13153
Olusanya RW610.310.0000.0420
MandronST780.360.032−0.0120
KiltieLW9010.010.053−0.0202
TaylorDF610.000.0000.0125
BwomonoMF440.000.0100.0440
BaccusMF290.030.0100.0102
McMenaminFW290.000.1110.0511
AyungaFW120.030.0000.0310

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Motherwell

Casey and O'Donnell: 5 passesCasey and Halliday: 5 passesMcGinn and Spittal: 5 passesO'Donnell and Halliday: 5 passesZdravkovski and Halliday: 5 passesHalliday and Gent: 5 passesHalliday and Vale: 5 passesO'Donnell and Spittal: 6 passesMcGinn and Halliday: 7 passesZdravkovski and Vale: 7 passesKelly and Casey: 8 passesKelly and McGinn: 8 passesCasey and Spittal: 8 passesDevine and Zdravkovski: 8 passesCasey and Gent: 9 passesSpittal and Vale: 9 passesSpittal and Bair: 9 passesO'Donnell and Vale: 10 passesDevine and Vale: 11 passesCasey and McGinn: 12 passesHalliday and Spittal: 12 passesGent and Spittal: 15 passesMcGinn and O'Donnell: 16 passesKelly and O'Donnell: 17 passesO'Donnell and Zdravkovski: 17 passesO'Donnell and Devine: 27 passesKelly: 26 completed passesCasey: 32 completed passesMcGinn: 32 completed passesO'Donnell: 50 completed passesDevine: 32 completed passesZdravkovski: 32 completed passesHalliday: 22 completed passesGent: 18 completed passesSpittal: 31 completed passesVale: 25 completed passesBair: 13 completed passes115162211711372814KellyCaseyMcGinnO'DonnellDevineZdravkovskiHallidayGentSpittalValeBairStarters until 64' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

St. Mirren

Hemming and Mandron: 3 passesMandron and Kiltie: 3 passesStrain and O'Hara: 4 passesBolton and O'Hara: 5 passesFraser and Tanser: 5 passesTanser and Boyd-Munce: 5 passesGogic and Fraser: 6 passesGogic and Bolton: 9 passesBolton and Strain: 9 passesHemming: 6 completed passesGogic: 13 completed passesBolton: 14 completed passesFraser: 8 completed passesStrain: 8 completed passesTanser: 8 completed passesO'Hara: 6 completed passesBoyd-Munce: 6 completed passesOlusanya: 0 completed passesMandron: 4 completed passesKiltie: 5 completed passes11322223361520911HemmingGogicBoltonFraserStrainTanserO'HaraBoyd-MunceOlusanyaMandronKiltieStarters until 29' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Motherwell

FromToPasses
DevineO'Donnell15
McGinnO'Donnell15
ZdravkovskiO'Donnell14
KellyO'Donnell13
GentSpittal12

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
Boyd-MunceTanser8
BoltonStrain7
HemmingMandron7
TanserTaylor7
TaylorTanser7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Motherwell

6+1.615−2.17−0.98+1.15−1.94−3.07−0.68+2.66+0.94+0.17+1.66−1.68+2.96+2.43+0.21−2.05+0.62+0.11−0.710.00−1.32−0.50−1.00−0.41+0.21+0.62+1.44−3.52−3.94−3.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 30 matches

St. Mirren

3−2.17+0.514−0.24−4.15−0.310+2.610+2.83−1.87−0.75−2.03−2.83−1.82−0.94−2.116+9.34−0.20−3.01−1.46+2.53−0.52−0.61−1.01+0.10−1.32−0.20−0.90−0.30−0.80−0.30−0.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 30 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Motherwell

0.010.010.020.010.080.040.010.020.010.040.04−0.010.030.040.040.010.010.010.02−0.02−0.020.070.15−0.05−0.030.280.22LessMore

St. Mirren

0.020.010.010.040.010.020.020.020.020.050.040.03−0.030.020.020.05−0.020.010.03−0.05−0.010.060.050.07LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackMotherwell1.17 → 1.18St. Mirren1.13 → 1.13Defence (lower is better)Motherwell1.39 → 1.38St. Mirren1.31 → 1.32

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Motherwell
Top six7%4%−3
11th1%1%0
St. Mirren
Top six98%99%+1
Hibernian
Top six64%66%+2

From the forecast before the match (30 March 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

MotherwellSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.411.09
Win44%28%
Expected Points1.591.13
Clean sheet34%24%

Motherwell 44%Draw 28%St. Mirren 28%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 51%.

St. Mirren goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+9%8%5%2%7%2%8%9%5%2%4%4%2%1%1%11%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 30 March 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowMotherwell winDrawSt. Mirren win
Motherwell
Top six7%13%4%1%
11th1%1%1%3%
St. Mirren
Top six98%97%99%>99%
Hibernian
Top six64%59%66%69%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Motherwell

  1. L0–116 MarAberdeen (H)xG 1.32–1.17
  2. W2–12 MarRangers (A)xG 0.83–3.40
  3. W3–128 FebLivingston (A)xG 1.25–0.92
  4. L1–325 FebCeltic (H)xG 0.69–2.87
  5. L0–217 FebHearts (A)xG 0.46–1.71
  6. D3–314 FebAberdeen (A)xG 2.56–1.44

St. Mirren

  1. L2–516 MarKilmarnock (A)xG 0.74–1.91
  2. W2–12 MarAberdeen (H)xG 2.01–0.98
  3. D1–127 FebRoss County (A)xG 0.67–1.02
  4. W2–024 FebSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.94–0.70
  5. L0–117 FebLivingston (A)xG 2.07–0.97
  6. W2–07 FebDundee FC (H)xG 1.63–0.26

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

MotherwellSt. Mirren
Position8th5th
Played3030
Won, drawn, lost7–⁠11–⁠1212–⁠6–⁠12
Points32 (1.07 per game)42 (1.40 per game)
Expected Points per game1.191.25
Goals41–⁠4736–⁠37
xG per game1.19–⁠1.521.10–⁠1.34
Home: points, xG per game1.07, 1.31–⁠1.401.80, 1.12–⁠1.20
Away: points, xG per game1.07, 1.07–⁠1.631.00, 1.08–⁠1.48
ManagerStuart Kettlewell (44)Stephen Robinson (25)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackMotherwell1.17, 6thSt. Mirren1.13, 8thDefence (lower is better)Motherwell1.39, 7thSt. Mirren1.31, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarMotherwell attack: 1.17St. Mirren attack: 1.131.171.13St. MirrenMotherwellDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarMotherwell defence: 1.39St. Mirren defence: 1.311.391.31

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

MotherwellSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−10%+19%−30%−3%
Counter-attacks+23%−24%−22%−9%
Set pieces−28%+8%−25%−5%
Penalties−17%−1%+49%+16%
Headers−10%+46%−15%−10%
Left side−23%+29%−27%−10%
Centre+4%+5%−34%+6%
Right side−33%+9%−17%−19%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−23%−19%Centre+4%+6%Right side−33%−10%Open play−10%−3%Counter-attacks+23%−9%Set pieces−28%−5%Headers−10%−10%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdMotherwell concededLeft side−27%+9%Centre−34%+5%Right side−17%+29%Open play−30%+19%Counter-attacks−22%−24%Set pieces−25%+8%Headers−15%+46%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

MotherwellSt. Mirren

1.19xG1.10
1.52xG against1.34
44%Possession46%
11.0Shots10.6
14.2Shots against11.4
3.9Shots on target3.4
1.9Big chances1.9
19.4Touches in the opposition box18.9
345Passes342
66%Pass accuracy65%
4.3Corners4.7
44%Field tilt46%
31.1Final-third entries33.8
9.6Box entries9.3
16.2Passes per defensive action16.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level460.961.38
Ahead151.242.12
Behind291.521.41

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level390.911.35
Ahead241.431.41
Behind271.101.26

xG by period

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.135–6
16–300.160.226–11
31–450.220.236–4
46–600.110.322–8
61–750.230.277–8
76–900.330.3415–10

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.156–6
16–300.140.182–5
31–450.170.218–5
46–600.210.206–3
61–750.140.223–9
76–900.290.3811–9

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Motherwell

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTKelly 30McGinn 18O'Donnell 5Mugabi 26Butcher 7Casey 21Blaney 13O'Donnell 20Spencer 5Devine 3Spittal 13Paton 10Butcher 1Miller 12Zdravkovski 8Spencer 6Gent 7Slattery 7Spencer 5Bair 10Slattery 9Paton 8Spittal 13Zdravkovski 4Biereth 3Bair 13Biereth 6Vale 33-4-2-1 in 8 of 30 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (8), 3-5-2 (6), 3-4-3 (6), 3-1-4-2 (3), 5-4-1 (2), 3-5-1-1 (2), 5-3-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1)

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWHemming 30Fraser 27Bolton 9Gogic 30Taylor 19Dunne 5Strain 11Bwomono 7Flynn 4O'Hara 12Baccus 12Kwon 7Boyd-Munce 17Kiltie 6Tanser 25O'Hara 4Boyd-Munce 1McMenamin 13Tanser 5O'Hara 3Mandron 15Olusanya 8Ayunga 5Kiltie 24Ayunga 3Mandron 23-4-3 in 16 of 30 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (16), 3-4-2-1 (7), 3-5-2 (6), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
16 December 2023St. Mirren0–0MotherwellxG 1.25–1.00
16 September 2023Motherwell0–1St. MirrenxG 1.18–0.55
15 February 2023Motherwell2–1St. MirrenxG 0.48–0.46
28 January 2023St. Mirren1–0MotherwellxG 0.60–0.40
31 July 2022St. Mirren0–1MotherwellxG 2.38–1.16
2 April 2022Motherwell4–2St. MirrenxG 1.76–1.67

12 league meetings since 2020/21: Motherwell won 4, St. Mirren won 3, and 5 were drawn. Goals 12–10 and xG 1.25–1.16 per game.

Key players

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Biereth111,022650.360.22
Bair231,9311140.390.10
Spittal292,610790.170.24
Wilkinson7648310.160.12

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Jamieson6607100.240.20
Mandron171,513720.310.11
Olusanya8936410.330.08
Kiltie302,385440.210.13

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.