Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Motherwell 1–3 Celtic

Sunday 25 February 2024, 12:00 · Fir Park · Round 27 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee William Collum · Attendance 9,016

Motherwell Spittal 43'

Celtic Idah 51', 90+4', Palma 90+6'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

MotherwellCeltic
Goals13
xG0.692.87
Expected Points0.232.66

Motherwell 4%Draw 11%Celtic 85%

Most likely score 0–3, 13%. Final score 1–3, 10%.

Celtic goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+2%6%9%4%2%1%5%9%7%3%1%2%3%3%2%1%12%13%10%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTNicholson on for Vale and Butcher on for Casey, 74'O'Donnell on for Miller and Shaw on for Devine, 84'Blaney on for Gent, 89'Idah on for Furuhashi, 46'Carter-Vickers on for Nawrocki and Yang on for Kühn, 61'Bernardo on for Iwata, 77'Palma on for Maeda, 84'Spittal 43'Idah 51'Idah 90+4'Palma 90+6'Celtic 2.87Motherwell 0.6901230153045607590HTNicholson on for Vale and Butcher on for Casey, 74'O'Donnell on for Miller and Shaw on for Devine, 84'Blaney on for Gent, 89'Idah on for Furuhashi, 46'Carter-Vickers on for Nawrocki and Yang on for Kühn, 61'Bernardo on for Iwata, 77'Palma on for Maeda, 84'Spittal 43'Idah 51'Idah 90+4'Palma 90+6'2.870.69MotherwellCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

MotherwellCeltic

0.69 −0.52xG2.87 +0.21
0.98 −0.36xG on target2.46 −0.14
10 −1Shots18 −3
3 −0.8Shots on target7 −0.4
1 −0.9Big chances5 +1.2
21 +2Touches in the opposition box46 +1
29% −15Possession71% +1
291 −51Passes699 +39
53% −12Pass accuracy82% −3
18% −27Field tilt82% +2
22 −8Final-third entries100 +24
12 +2.6Box entries25 +0.5
23.5 +8Passes per defensive action9.1 −1
4 −0.4Corners4 −6.0
21 +5Tackles16 0
7 −1.0Interceptions8 +2.8
32 +9Clearances15 0
4 +1.5Saves2 +0.3
7 −5Fouls10 0
1 −0.2Offsides0 −2.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Motherwell

Miller 56', 0.15 xGMcGinn 7', 0.11 xGGent 31', 0.07 xGBair 41', 0.06 xGCasey 56', 0.06 xGVale 12', 0.05 xGBair 32', 0.04 xGVale 68', 0.04 xGCasey 7', 0.02 xGSpittal 43', 0.09 xG, goal16%0.11 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.11 xG, 0 goals56%0.38 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.38 xG, 0 goals15%0.10 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals13%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.09 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Maeda 70', 0.59 xGFuruhashi 34', 0.30 xGMaeda 73', 0.22 xGIdah 85', 0.18 xGMaeda 45', 0.17 xGO'Riley 82', 0.16 xGPalma 90+1', 0.12 xGYang 67', 0.08 xGMaeda 72', 0.07 xGMcGregor 41', 0.06 xGO'Riley 59', 0.06 xGYang 69', 0.03 xGScales 82', 0.03 xGTaylor 2', 0.02 xGFuruhashi 34', 0.02 xGPalma 90+6', 0.48 xG, goalIdah 90+4', 0.21 xG, goalIdah 51', 0.08 xG, goal26%0.76 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.76 xG, 0 goals65%1.87 xGCentral box: 11 shots, 1.87 xG, 3 goals4%0.11 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals5%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

MotherwellCeltic

0.31 3 shots, 1 goalOpen play2.69 16 shots, 3 goals
0.19 4 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.19 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.19 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
86 min (89%) · Motherwell 0.69, Celtic 2.15 xG
Motherwell ahead
8 min (8%) · Motherwell 0.00, Celtic 0.25 xG
Celtic ahead
3 min (3%) · Motherwell 0.00, Celtic 0.48 xG

Line-ups

116515213817328714KellyMcGinnMugabiCaseyDevineMillerZdravkovskiGentValeSpittalBairGoal74'84'84'89'74'Motherwell 3-4-2-1Stuart Kettlewell12175333244210838HartJohnstonNawrockiScalesTaylorO'RileyIwataMcGregorKühnFuruhashiMaedaYellow card61'77'61'46'84'Celtic 4-3-3Brendan Rodgers

Motherwell substitutes

  • 74' Butcher for Casey · yellow card 79'
  • 74' Nicholson for Vale
  • 84' O'Donnell for Miller
  • 84' Shaw for Devine
  • 89' Blaney for Gent

Celtic substitutes

  • 46' Idah for Furuhashi · goal 51', goal 90+4'
  • 61' Carter-Vickers for Nawrocki
  • 61' Yang for Kühn · 1 assist
  • 77' Bernardo for Iwata
  • 84' Palma for Maeda · goal 90+6', yellow card 90+7'

Players

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KellyGK900.000.0000.0230
McGinnCB900.110.0000.0329
MugabiCB900.000.0100.06314
CaseyCB740.070.000−0.15110
DevineRWB840.000.0510.1597
MillerCM8410.150.0210.1325
ZdravkovskiCM900.000.0910.0822
GentLWB890.070.1320.0007
ValeAM740.090.0100.0432
SpittalAM9010.090.0950.2783
BairST900.100.0100.0523
Butcher DF160.000.0000.0112
NicholsonDF160.000.000−0.0100
O'DonnellDF60.000.0000.0001
ShawFW60.000.000−0.0100
BlaneyDF10.000.0000.0000

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HartGK900.000.0000.0331
JohnstonRB9010.001.1950.96242
NawrockiCB610.000.0300.19125
ScalesCB900.030.0400.281910
Taylor LB9010.020.2930.39181
O'RileyCM900.220.2010.1753
IwataCM770.000.031−0.0129
McGregorCM900.060.2910.0832
KühnRW610.000.0720.0850
FuruhashiST460.320.0000.0110
MaedaLW841.050.051−0.0124
IdahFW4420.470.030−0.1020
Carter-VickersDF290.000.0100.0332
YangFW2910.110.3720.3553
BernardoMF130.000.0310.0100
Palma FW610.600.0100.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Motherwell

Kelly and Mugabi: 3 passesCasey and Spittal: 3 passesCasey and Vale: 3 passesMugabi and Zdravkovski: 3 passesMcGinn and Devine: 3 passesMcGinn and Spittal: 3 passesZdravkovski and Spittal: 3 passesMiller and Vale: 3 passesKelly and Miller: 4 passesMugabi and McGinn: 4 passesMcGinn and Bair: 4 passesDevine and Zdravkovski: 4 passesZdravkovski and Miller: 4 passesMiller and Bair: 4 passesVale and Bair: 4 passesCasey and Mugabi: 5 passesCasey and Gent: 5 passesMcGinn and Zdravkovski: 5 passesDevine and Miller: 5 passesSpittal and Vale: 5 passesDevine and Bair: 6 passesGent and Zdravkovski: 6 passesSpittal and Bair: 7 passesMcGinn and Miller: 8 passesDevine and Vale: 8 passesGent and Spittal: 8 passesKelly: 10 completed passesCasey: 13 completed passesMugabi: 14 completed passesMcGinn: 19 completed passesDevine: 19 completed passesGent: 12 completed passesZdravkovski: 16 completed passesMiller: 12 completed passesSpittal: 15 completed passesVale: 9 completed passesBair: 8 completed passes115516213173872814KellyCaseyMugabiMcGinnDevineGentZdravkovskiMillerSpittalValeBairStarters until 74' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Celtic

Taylor and O'Riley: 4 passesO'Riley and Iwata: 4 passesScales and O'Riley: 5 passesNawrocki and O'Riley: 5 passesNawrocki and Iwata: 5 passesScales and McGregor: 6 passesScales and Maeda: 6 passesJohnston and McGregor: 7 passesScales and Iwata: 8 passesNawrocki and Kühn: 8 passesTaylor and Iwata: 9 passesNawrocki and Taylor: 10 passesTaylor and Maeda: 10 passesO'Riley and McGregor: 10 passesO'Riley and Kühn: 10 passesHart and Nawrocki: 11 passesHart and Scales: 12 passesJohnston and O'Riley: 12 passesJohnston and Iwata: 13 passesJohnston and Kühn: 14 passesTaylor and McGregor: 15 passesJohnston and Nawrocki: 28 passesScales and Nawrocki: 28 passesScales and Taylor: 31 passesHart: 17 completed passesJohnston: 39 completed passesScales: 50 completed passesNawrocki: 50 completed passesTaylor: 43 completed passesO'Riley: 25 completed passesIwata: 28 completed passesMcGregor: 21 completed passesKühn: 14 completed passesFuruhashi: 0 completed passesMaeda: 9 completed passes12517333244210838HartJohnstonScalesNawrockiTaylorO'RileyIwataMcGregorKühnFuruhashiMaedaStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Motherwell

FromToPasses
GentSpittal6
DevineVale6
DevineBair5
McGinnMiller5
CaseyMugabi5

Celtic

FromToPasses
ScalesTaylor48
NawrockiJohnston24
TaylorMcGregor22
HartScales18
JohnstonKühn17

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Motherwell

5+0.312+4.816−0.120+12.39+3.216+9.212+5.19+2.08+0.817+9.74−1.74−1.32−1.95−0.310+2.24−1.32−1.91−2.01−2.18+3.50−1.90−1.90−1.13+1.62−0.62+1.00−0.51+0.30−0.50−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 26 matches

Celtic

3+0.22−2.08−1.05−0.66+1.46+0.57+2.55+1.16−0.28+0.67+2.39+5.35+1.52−4.25−2.36+1.830.05+2.64+0.94−1.25+1.530.04+2.03+0.140.00−0.91+0.41+0.40−0.81−0.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 26 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Motherwell

0.020.010.040.010.010.010.020.010.040.020.010.030.02−0.010.020.03−0.020.080.100.01−0.010.11−0.150.27LessMore

Celtic

0.010.020.040.020.030.040.050.070.040.070.060.040.130.110.210.080.27−0.030.12−0.020.170.030.470.42LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackMotherwell1.19 → 1.16Celtic2.25 → 2.28Defence (lower is better)Motherwell1.35 → 1.38Celtic0.75 → 0.74

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Motherwell
Top six8%5%−3
11th4%5%+1
Celtic
Title25%30%+5
Rangers
Title75%70%−5
Hibernian
Top six33%35%+2

From the forecast before the match (25 February 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

MotherwellCeltic
Expected goals0.822.13
Win13%67%
Expected Points0.592.21
Clean sheet12%44%

Motherwell 13%Draw 20%Celtic 67%

Most likely score 0–2, 12%. Both sides score 50%.

Celtic goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+6%8%4%2%1%4%7%4%2%2%4%4%3%2%1%1%11%12%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 25 February 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowMotherwell winDrawCeltic win
Motherwell
Top six8%19%9%5%
11th4%1%3%5%
Celtic
Title25%12%18%30%
Rangers
Title75%88%82%70%
Hibernian
Top six33%29%32%35%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Motherwell

  1. L0–217 FebHearts (A)xG 0.46–1.71
  2. D3–314 FebAberdeen (A)xG 2.56–1.44
  3. W5–06 FebRoss County (H)xG 2.91–1.05
  4. D1–13 FebKilmarnock (H)xG 1.14–0.24
  5. D1–127 JanSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.87–0.82
  6. D2–22 JanHibernian (A)xG 1.55–0.72

Celtic

  1. D1–117 FebKilmarnock (H)xG 1.49–0.95
  2. W2–17 FebHibernian (A)xG 2.07–1.00
  3. D1–13 FebAberdeen (A)xG 2.04–1.22
  4. W1–027 JanRoss County (H)xG 2.02–1.08
  5. W3–02 JanSt. Mirren (A)xG 3.62–0.18
  6. W2–130 DecRangers (H)xG 0.64–0.97

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

MotherwellCeltic
Position9th2nd
Played2626
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠11–⁠1019–⁠5–⁠2
Points26 (1.00 per game)62 (2.38 per game)
Expected Points per game1.242.33
Goals35–⁠4158–⁠18
xG per game1.21–⁠1.432.66–⁠0.87
Home: points, xG per game1.23, 1.35–⁠1.302.31, 2.88–⁠0.76
Away: points, xG per game0.77, 1.07–⁠1.552.46, 2.45–⁠0.99
ManagerStuart Kettlewell (40)Brendan Rodgers (26)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackMotherwell1.19, 4thCeltic2.25, 2ndDefence (lower is better)Motherwell1.35, 6thCeltic0.75, 2nd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebMotherwell attack: 1.19Celtic attack: 2.252.251.19CelticMotherwellDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebMotherwell defence: 1.35Celtic defence: 0.751.350.75

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

MotherwellCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−8%+9%+115%−26%
Counter-attacks+25%−20%+108%−20%
Set pieces−28%+9%+34%−31%
Penalties−1%−1%+137%−100%
Headers−19%+29%+37%−19%
Left side−23%+30%+103%−13%
Centre+9%+2%+78%−25%
Right side−38%−9%+110%−47%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdCeltic concededLeft side−23%−47%Centre+9%−25%Right side−38%−13%Open play−8%−26%Counter-attacks+25%−20%Set pieces−28%−31%Headers−19%−19%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdMotherwell concededLeft side+103%−9%Centre+78%+2%Right side+110%+30%Open play+115%+9%Counter-attacks+108%−20%Set pieces+34%+9%Headers+37%+29%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

MotherwellCeltic

1.21xG2.66
1.43xG against0.87
44%Possession70%
10.7Shots20.6
13.5Shots against7.8
3.8Shots on target7.4
1.9Big chances3.8
19.1Touches in the opposition box45.3
342Passes660
66%Pass accuracy85%
4.4Corners10.0
44%Field tilt81%
30.3Final-third entries76.4
9.4Box entries24.5
15.6Passes per defensive action10.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level460.961.34
Ahead141.421.74
Behind301.521.42

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level402.750.75
Ahead452.671.05
Behind51.870.28

xG by period

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.124–5
16–300.170.216–10
31–450.210.225–4
46–600.100.311–6
61–750.240.265–8
76–900.350.3114–8

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.400.109–2
16–300.470.078–2
31–450.300.177–1
46–600.470.1110–3
61–750.290.205–4
76–900.740.2319–6

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Motherwell

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWKelly 26McGinn 16O'Donnell 5Mugabi 22Butcher 7Casey 17Blaney 11O'Donnell 17Spencer 5Devine 2Paton 14Slattery 9Wilkinson 2Spittal 10Miller 6Zdravkovski 6Spencer 10Gent 5Paton 2Slattery 8Paton 4Gent 4Bair 10Biereth 6Wilkinson 3Bair 9Spittal 8Biereth 43-4-3 in 6 of 26 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (6), 3-5-2 (5), 3-4-2-1 (5), 3-1-4-2 (3), 5-4-1 (2), 3-5-1-1 (2), 5-3-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWHart 25Bain 1Johnston 21Ralston 5Carter-Vickers 14Nawrocki 4Lagerbielke 4Scales 24Taylor 23Bernabei 3O'Riley 25Maeda 1McGregor 26Iwata 2Bernardo 9Turnbull 9Hatate 4Maeda 9Abada 5Yang 5Furuhashi 21Oh 3Idah 2Palma 17Maeda 7Yang 24-3-3 in 25 of 26 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (25), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
25 November 2023Celtic1–1MotherwellxG 3.25–0.48
30 September 2023Motherwell1–2CelticxG 0.82–1.68
22 April 2023Celtic1–1MotherwellxG 2.04–0.81
9 November 2022Motherwell1–2CelticxG 0.47–1.43
1 October 2022Celtic2–1MotherwellxG 3.50–0.35
14 May 2022Celtic6–0MotherwellxG 2.32–0.90

12 league meetings since 2020/21: Motherwell won 0, Celtic won 10, and 2 were drawn. Goals 7–30 and xG 0.64–2.26 per game.

Key players

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Biereth111,022650.360.22
Bair191,5711030.430.10
Spittal252,250580.170.24
Wilkinson7648310.160.12

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Turnbull9676700.710.39
Oh3610500.940.05
Palma171,306590.420.44
Furuhashi221,794930.580.11

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.