Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Motherwell 0–1 St. Mirren

Saturday 16 September 2023, 15:00 · Fir Park · Round 5 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Matthew McDermid · Attendance 5,653

St. Mirren Tanser 55'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

MotherwellSt. Mirren
Goals01
xG1.180.55
Expected Points1.850.81

Motherwell 51%Draw 33%St. Mirren 16%

Most likely score 1–0, 21%. Final score 0–1, 9%.

St. Mirren goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+9%2%14%3%12%7%2%4%3%1%17%21%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTShaw on for Bair, 78'Gent on for O'Donnell, 83'Ferrie on for Blaney, 90+2'Baccus on for Boyd-Munce and Dunne on for Taylor, 46'Olusanya on for McMenamin, 68'Bolton on for Strain and Greive on for Mandron, 83'Tanser 55'Motherwell 1.18St. Mirren 0.5500.511.50153045607590HTShaw on for Bair, 78'Gent on for O'Donnell, 83'Ferrie on for Blaney, 90+2'Baccus on for Boyd-Munce and Dunne on for Taylor, 46'Olusanya on for McMenamin, 68'Bolton on for Strain and Greive on for Mandron, 83'Tanser 55'1.180.55MotherwellSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

MotherwellSt. Mirren

1.18 +0.02xG0.55 −0.82
0.95 −0.53xG on target0.28 −1.54
20 +9Shots9 −2
7 +2.8Shots on target3 −1.0
1 −0.8Big chances1 −2.2
25 +6Touches in the opposition box19
56% +8Possession44% −2
459 +115Passes355 +46
70% +3Pass accuracy61% 0
68% +16Field tilt32% −15
48 +20Final-third entries31 +1
17 +7.8Box entries10 +0.5
27.6 +15Passes per defensive action17.6 +2
8 +2.2Corners3 −1.2
15 −5Tackles7 −10
6 −3.0Interceptions5 −3.5
16 −13Clearances25 −4
2 +1.2Saves7 +5.2
6 −8.2Fouls18 +8.8
0 −2.0Offsides2 −0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Motherwell

Bair 76', 0.18 xGSpittal 37', 0.15 xGShaw 78', 0.14 xGBair 30', 0.11 xGSpittal 21', 0.08 xGSpittal 47', 0.06 xGGent 90', 0.06 xGMugabi 76', 0.05 xGPaton 15', 0.04 xGMiller 31', 0.04 xGPaton 53', 0.04 xGSlattery 64', 0.04 xGBlaney 72', 0.04 xGSlattery 22', 0.03 xGSpittal 77', 0.03 xGShaw 86', 0.03 xGSpittal 27', 0.02 xGCasey 52', 0.02 xGSpittal 73', 0.02 xGPaton 67', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals40%0.48 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.48 xG, 0 goals26%0.31 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.31 xG, 0 goals25%0.30 xGEdge of the box: 8 shots, 0.30 xG, 0 goals8%0.10 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

McMenamin 15', 0.12 xGMandron 59', 0.07 xGOlusanya 90+8', 0.07 xGMcMenamin 29', 0.04 xGKiltie 81', 0.04 xGGogic 10', 0.03 xGMandron 59', 0.02 xGTanser 2', 0.01 xGTanser 55', 0.15 xG, goal18%0.10 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals66%0.37 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.37 xG, 1 goal7%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals9%0.05 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

MotherwellSt. Mirren

0.57 12 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.42 6 shots, 1 goal
0.15 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.46 7 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.13 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
55 min (56%) · Motherwell 0.59, St. Mirren 0.35 xG
St. Mirren ahead
43 min (44%) · Motherwell 0.59, St. Mirren 0.20 xG

Line-ups

11552021238228147KellyCaseyMugabiBlaneyO'DonnellPatonMillerSpencerSlatteryBairSpittal90+2'83'78'Motherwell 3-4-3Stuart Kettlewell12213523156310911HemmingFraserGogicTaylorStrainBoyd-MunceO'HaraTanserMcMenaminMandronKiltieYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoal46'83'46'68'83'St. Mirren 3-4-3Steve Robinson

Motherwell substitutes

  • 78' Shaw for Bair
  • 83' Gent for O'Donnell
  • 90+2' Ferrie for Blaney

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 46' Dunne for Taylor
  • 46' Baccus for Boyd-Munce · yellow card 63'
  • 68' Olusanya for McMenamin
  • 83' Greive for Mandron
  • 83' Bolton for Strain

Players

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KellyGK900.000.0100.0440
CaseyCB900.020.3710.3842
MugabiCB900.050.0000.0538
BlaneyCB900.040.0000.0553
O'DonnellRWB830.000.1010.26185
PatonCM900.090.0600.1457
MillerCM900.040.132−0.0944
SpencerLWB900.000.0710.1354
SlatteryRW900.060.1020.0973
BairST780.290.032−0.0611
SpittalLW900.360.5540.2462
ShawFW120.170.0000.0000
GentMF70.060.0510.0720
FerrieFW00.000.000––0

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Hemming GK900.000.0000.0451
Fraser CB900.000.0000.05510
GogicCB900.030.0100.0665
Taylor CB460.000.0000.0522
Strain RWB8310.000.2030.3865
Boyd-MunceCM460.000.0100.0111
O'HaraCM900.000.0300.0333
TanserLWB9010.160.0300.0452
McMenaminRW680.150.0100.0811
MandronST830.100.0620.0101
KiltieLW900.040.0110.0211
DunneDF440.000.0000.0016
Baccus MF440.000.010−0.0113
OlusanyaFW220.070.0000.0211
GreiveFW70.000.0600.0712
BoltonDF70.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Motherwell

Blaney and Spencer: 4 passesBlaney and Miller: 4 passesCasey and Mugabi: 4 passesMugabi and Spencer: 4 passesMugabi and Spittal: 4 passesPaton and Bair: 4 passesMugabi and O'Donnell: 5 passesO'Donnell and Paton: 5 passesSpencer and Miller: 5 passesPaton and Slattery: 5 passesBair and Spittal: 5 passesBlaney and Paton: 7 passesPaton and Spittal: 7 passesCasey and Slattery: 8 passesO'Donnell and Spittal: 8 passesKelly and Casey: 9 passesMiller and Slattery: 9 passesO'Donnell and Bair: 10 passesSpencer and Paton: 10 passesCasey and Miller: 11 passesO'Donnell and Miller: 11 passesSpencer and Spittal: 11 passesCasey and O'Donnell: 14 passesO'Donnell and Slattery: 15 passesMiller and Spittal: 16 passesSlattery and Spittal: 18 passesKelly: 17 completed passesBlaney: 18 completed passesCasey: 28 completed passesMugabi: 16 completed passesO'Donnell: 39 completed passesSpencer: 20 completed passesPaton: 20 completed passesMiller: 30 completed passesSlattery: 30 completed passesBair: 12 completed passesSpittal: 31 completed passes12015522212388147KellyBlaneyCaseyMugabiO'DonnellSpencerPatonMillerSlatteryBairSpittalStarters until 78' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

St. Mirren

Hemming and Tanser: 3 passesGogic and Boyd-Munce: 3 passesTanser and Mandron: 3 passesMcMenamin and Mandron: 3 passesMandron and Kiltie: 3 passesTaylor and Fraser: 4 passesFraser and O'Hara: 4 passesTanser and Kiltie: 4 passesHemming and Taylor: 5 passesHemming and Fraser: 5 passesGogic and Strain: 5 passesGogic and Tanser: 5 passesTanser and Boyd-Munce: 5 passesO'Hara and McMenamin: 5 passesHemming and Gogic: 7 passesTaylor and Boyd-Munce: 8 passesStrain and McMenamin: 11 passesGogic and Taylor: 12 passesTaylor and Tanser: 12 passesFraser and Strain: 12 passesStrain and O'Hara: 13 passesGogic and Fraser: 14 passesHemming: 13 completed passesGogic: 27 completed passesTaylor: 24 completed passesFraser: 23 completed passesStrain: 24 completed passesTanser: 13 completed passesO'Hara: 15 completed passesBoyd-Munce: 13 completed passesMcMenamin: 9 completed passesMandron: 7 completed passesKiltie: 7 completed passes11352223361510911HemmingGogicTaylorFraserStrainTanserO'HaraBoyd-MunceMcMenaminMandronKiltieStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Motherwell

FromToPasses
SlatterySpittal12
SpencerSpittal12
SpittalSlattery12
MillerSpittal10
KellyCasey10

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
FraserGogic9
FraserStrain8
StrainO'Hara8
StrainMcMenamin8
StrainFraser7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Motherwell

11+5.06−4.22−4.82−5.580.07−0.27−1.07−2.26−1.85−3.03−3.22−2.85+0.53−6.03−3.24+0.82−1.27+2.22−5.01−0.20−2.52−0.22+1.82−0.51−0.51−0.20−0.80−0.52+1.29−12.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 4 matches

St. Mirren

5−1.012+2.213−0.59+1.01−5.011+2.814+5.512+7.06−4.87−3.24−2.54−4.51−2.86−2.55−1.82−2.82−1.21−1.86+3.56+2.21−0.80−2.81+0.82+0.23+0.80−1.20−0.20−0.80−0.22+1.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 4 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Motherwell

0.020.040.030.010.020.080.030.020.010.110.050.010.020.030.060.040.090.160.100.10−0.210.050.040.36LessMore

St. Mirren

0.010.030.030.030.010.070.030.010.010.030.050.010.010.050.060.03−0.010.04−0.010.13−0.010.25LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackMotherwell1.20 → 1.20St. Mirren1.10 → 1.09Defence (lower is better)Motherwell1.31 → 1.30St. Mirren1.43 → 1.42

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Motherwell
Top six77%66%−11
11th2%3%+1
Bottom1%1%0
St. Mirren
Top six44%57%+13
11th8%5%−3
Bottom6%3%−3

From the forecast before the match (16 September 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

MotherwellSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.570.99
Win50%23%
Expected Points1.770.96
Clean sheet37%21%

Motherwell 50%Draw 26%St. Mirren 23%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 50%.

St. Mirren goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+8%7%4%1%6%2%5%2%5%5%2%2%2%1%12%13%10%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 16 September 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowMotherwell winDrawSt. Mirren win
Motherwell
Top six77%84%75%66%
11th2%1%2%3%
Bottom1%1%1%1%
St. Mirren
Top six44%38%46%57%
11th8%10%7%5%
Bottom6%7%5%3%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Motherwell

  1. W1–03 SepHearts (A)xG 1.14–1.51
  2. W2–126 AugKilmarnock (H)xG 2.15–1.05
  3. W2–113 AugHibernian (H)xG 0.60–0.86
  4. D1–15 AugDundee FC (A)xG 0.76–1.60
  5. W3–228 MayDundee United (H)xG 2.15–2.81
  6. D1–124 MayLivingston (A)xG 0.47–0.70

St. Mirren

  1. D1–12 SepLivingston (A)xG 0.67–1.45
  2. D2–227 AugAberdeen (H)xG 1.97–0.87
  3. W2–112 AugDundee FC (H)xG 1.28–2.31
  4. W3–26 AugHibernian (A)xG 1.55–1.41
  5. L0–327 MayRangers (H)xG 0.55–1.81
  6. L0–324 MayAberdeen (A)xG 0.70–1.53

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

MotherwellSt. Mirren
Position2nd4th
Played44
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠1–⁠02–⁠2–⁠0
Points10 (2.50 per game)8 (2.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.231.26
Goals6–⁠38–⁠6
xG per game1.16–⁠1.251.37–⁠1.51
Home: points, xG per game3.00, 1.38–⁠0.962.00, 1.62–⁠1.59
Away: points, xG per game2.00, 0.95–⁠1.562.00, 1.11–⁠1.43
ManagerStuart Kettlewell (18)Steve Robinson (7)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackMotherwell1.20, 5thSt. Mirren1.10, 8thDefence (lower is better)Motherwell1.31, 4thSt. Mirren1.43, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepMotherwell attack: 1.20St. Mirren attack: 1.101.201.10St. MirrenMotherwellDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepMotherwell defence: 1.31St. Mirren defence: 1.431.431.31

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

MotherwellSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−1%−2%−29%+1%
Counter-attacks−24%−73%+39%−24%
Set pieces−44%+2%−11%−12%
Penalties+43%+26%+143%+161%
Headers−47%+43%+32%−26%
Left side−1%−3%−39%−6%
Centre−15%−21%−14%+15%
Right side−31%+26%−7%−46%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−1%−46%Centre−15%+15%Right side−31%−6%Open play−1%+1%Counter-attacks−24%−24%Set pieces−44%−12%Headers−47%−26%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdMotherwell concededLeft side−39%+26%Centre−14%−21%Right side−7%−3%Open play−29%−2%Counter-attacks+39%−73%Set pieces−11%+2%Headers+32%+43%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

MotherwellSt. Mirren

1.16xG1.37
1.25xG against1.51
48%Possession46%
11.0Shots11.0
12.8Shots against9.5
4.2Shots on target4.0
1.8Big chances3.2
344Passes310
68%Pass accuracy61%
5.8Corners4.2
53%Field tilt47%
27.9Final-third entries29.7
9.2Box entries9.5
13.1Passes per defensive action16.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level511.410.54
Ahead270.502.69
Behind121.631.07

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.250.80
Ahead410.932.43
Behind46.550.00

xG by period

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.030.140–1
16–300.260.141–0
31–450.180.091–0
46–600.190.361–0
61–750.120.151–1
76–900.390.382–1

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.300.042–0
16–300.200.051–0
31–450.210.271–1
46–600.300.081–0
61–750.140.420–2
76–900.220.643–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Motherwell

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTKelly 4McGinn 4Mugabi 4Casey 4O'Donnell 4Slattery 4Miller 4Paton 1Spittal 3Spencer 2Souaré 2Wilkinson 2Efford 1Bair 4Spittal 13-5-2 in 3 of 4 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (3), 5-4-1 (1)

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTHemming 4Fraser 4Gogic 4Taylor 4Strain 4Baccus 4O'Hara 1Boyd-Munce 3Tanser 4McMenamin 4Kiltie 4Olusanya 3Mandron 13-4-2-1 in 2 of 4 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (2), 3-4-3 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
15 February 2023Motherwell2–1St. MirrenxG 0.48–0.46
28 January 2023St. Mirren1–0MotherwellxG 0.60–0.40
31 July 2022St. Mirren0–1MotherwellxG 2.38–1.16
2 April 2022Motherwell4–2St. MirrenxG 1.76–1.67
1 February 2022St. Mirren1–1MotherwellxG 0.46–0.81
27 October 2021Motherwell2–2St. MirrenxG 1.25–2.27

10 league meetings since 2020/21: Motherwell won 4, St. Mirren won 2, and 4 were drawn. Goals 12–9 and xG 1.28–1.22 per game.

Key players

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Efford5474110.260.15
Spittal403,221690.110.18
Obika5506100.250.04
Slattery272,280520.110.06

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Greive121,184600.350.04
O'Hara352,9911130.260.07
Strain393,210450.080.16
Kiltie222,224320.120.11

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.