Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

St. Mirren 1–0 Motherwell

Saturday 28 January 2023, 15:00 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 23 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 6,424

St. Mirren Main 16'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenMotherwell
Goals10
xG0.600.40
Expected Points1.461.05

St. Mirren 32%Draw 49%Motherwell 19%

Most likely score 0–0, 38%. Final score 1–0, 22%.

Motherwell goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+14%2%22%11%2%6%3%38%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.750153045607590HTAyunga on for Greive, 60'Offord on for Ayunga, 78'Gallagher on for Strain and Flynn on for Kiltie, 87'Crankshaw on for Spittal and Tierney on for Shields, 56'Cornelius on for Goss, 89'Main 16'St. Mirren 0.60Motherwell 0.4000.250.50.750153045607590HTAyunga on for Greive, 60'Offord on for Ayunga, 78'Gallagher on for Strain and Flynn on for Kiltie, 87'Crankshaw on for Spittal and Tierney on for Shields, 56'Cornelius on for Goss, 89'Main 16'0.600.40St. MirrenMotherwell

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenMotherwell

0.60 −0.47xG0.40 −0.91
0.81 −0.17xG on target0.28 −0.84
9 −2Shots8 −4
2 −1.0Shots on target2 −1.4
1 −0.8Big chances0 −1.7
15 −2Touches in the opposition box9 −9
40% +4Possession60% +11
295 +38Passes454 +98
57% −5Pass accuracy70% +1
40% +5Field tilt60% +9
37 +7Final-third entries47 +12
6 −2.7Box entries4 −5.1
15.4 −2Passes per defensive action19.7 +7
6 +0.4Corners5 −0.5
17 +2Tackles16 0
6 −4Interceptions4 −6
28 +6Clearances25 +8
2 −0.4Saves1 −1.6
14 0Fouls11 −3
0 −1.3Offsides4 +2.4

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Main 28', 0.12 xGStrain 33', 0.08 xGKiltie 4', 0.07 xGTanser 4', 0.06 xGTanser 42', 0.03 xGKiltie 63', 0.03 xGAyunga 67', 0.03 xGMain 84', 0.03 xGMain 16', 0.15 xG, goal25%0.15 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.15 xG, 1 goal42%0.25 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.25 xG, 0 goals10%0.06 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals23%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Motherwell

McKinstry 8', 0.11 xGJohnston 72', 0.07 xGMcKinstry 90+3', 0.07 xGLamie 47', 0.06 xGSpittal 7', 0.03 xGSlattery 14', 0.02 xGSlattery 80', 0.02 xGSlattery 90+3', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals42%0.17 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals18%0.07 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.07 xG, 0 goals30%0.12 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals10%0.04 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenMotherwell

0.43 6 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.32 6 shots, 0 goals
0.17 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.08 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
16 min (17%) · St. Mirren 0.28, Motherwell 0.16 xG
St. Mirren ahead
77 min (83%) · St. Mirren 0.33, Motherwell 0.24 xG

Line-ups

1221318231116632110CarsonFraserGogicDunneStrainKiltieErhahonO'HaraTanserGreiveMainYellow cardYellow cardGoal87'87'60'St. Mirren 3-5-2Stephen Robinson12220416782729917KellyJohnstonBlaneyLamieMcGinnSpittalSlatteryGossShieldsvan VeenMcKinstryYellow cardYellow card56'89'56'Motherwell 4-3-3Steven Hammell

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 60' Ayunga for Greive · off 78'
  • 78' Offord for Ayunga · yellow card 81'
  • 87' Gallagher for Strain
  • 87' Flynn for Kiltie

Motherwell substitutes

  • 56' Tierney for Shields
  • 56' Crankshaw for Spittal
  • 89' Cornelius for Goss

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
CarsonGK900.000.0100.0761
Fraser CB900.000.0000.02110
GogicCB900.000.0300.05310
DunneCB900.000.0100.0323
StrainRWB8710.080.3610.2474
KiltieCM870.090.0110.0041
ErhahonCM900.000.0100.0345
O'HaraCM900.000.0210.0424
TanserLWB900.100.0720.1678
Greive ST600.000.010−0.0111
MainST9010.300.0710.0036
AyungaFW180.030.0000.0210
Offord FW120.000.0000.0010
GallagherDF30.000.0000.0010
FlynnMF30.000.0000.0002

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KellyGK900.000.0000.0331
JohnstonRB900.070.0100.0852
BlaneyCB900.000.0000.0438
Lamie CB900.060.0400.10613
McGinnLB900.000.0200.091310
SpittalCM560.030.0710.0242
SlatteryCM900.060.0210.08105
Goss CM890.000.010−0.0131
ShieldsRW560.000.2000.0620
van VeenST900.000.091−0.0510
McKinstryLW900.180.0110.0253
TierneyMF340.000.0100.0232
CrankshawFW340.000.0220.0110
CorneliusMF10.000.021−0.0200

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Carson and Strain: 3 passesGogic and Dunne: 3 passesDunne and Strain: 3 passesDunne and Main: 3 passesStrain and Main: 3 passesTanser and Greive: 3 passesErhahon and Greive: 3 passesCarson and Main: 4 passesDunne and Tanser: 4 passesDunne and O'Hara: 4 passesFraser and Greive: 4 passesTanser and O'Hara: 4 passesO'Hara and Erhahon: 4 passesO'Hara and Greive: 4 passesCarson and Tanser: 5 passesFraser and Strain: 5 passesTanser and Erhahon: 5 passesErhahon and Main: 5 passesKiltie and Greive: 5 passesStrain and Greive: 6 passesErhahon and Kiltie: 6 passesStrain and Kiltie: 15 passesCarson: 9 completed passesGogic: 9 completed passesDunne: 12 completed passesFraser: 11 completed passesStrain: 21 completed passesTanser: 12 completed passesO'Hara: 10 completed passesErhahon: 15 completed passesKiltie: 15 completed passesGreive: 11 completed passesMain: 6 completed passes1131822233616112110CarsonGogicDunneFraserStrainTanserO'HaraErhahonKiltieGreiveMainStarters until 60' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Motherwell

Kelly and Lamie: 4 passesJohnston and McKinstry: 4 passesBlaney and Slattery: 4 passesSlattery and van Veen: 4 passesGoss and van Veen: 4 passesSpittal and van Veen: 4 passesShields and McKinstry: 4 passesvan Veen and McKinstry: 4 passesKelly and McGinn: 5 passesMcGinn and van Veen: 5 passesSpittal and McKinstry: 5 passesLamie and Spittal: 6 passesGoss and McKinstry: 6 passesLamie and Slattery: 7 passesMcGinn and Slattery: 8 passesMcGinn and Goss: 8 passesSlattery and Spittal: 8 passesJohnston and Slattery: 9 passesMcGinn and Spittal: 9 passesBlaney and Lamie: 10 passesSlattery and Goss: 11 passesLamie and McGinn: 12 passesKelly and Blaney: 13 passesJohnston and Blaney: 16 passesJohnston and Goss: 17 passesKelly: 14 completed passesJohnston: 27 completed passesBlaney: 26 completed passesLamie: 25 completed passesMcGinn: 29 completed passesSlattery: 26 completed passesGoss: 26 completed passesSpittal: 23 completed passesShields: 3 completed passesvan Veen: 12 completed passesMcKinstry: 14 completed passes12220416827729917KellyJohnstonBlaneyLamieMcGinnSlatteryGossSpittalShieldsvan VeenMcKinstryStarters until 56' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
KiltieStrain10
CarsonMain10
StrainKiltie9
ErhahonKiltie7
O'HaraTanser6

Motherwell

FromToPasses
JohnstonBlaney15
BlaneyJohnston14
McGinnLamie13
LamieMcGinn11
BlaneyKelly10

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

10+5.314+6.312−1.86−2.92−2.05−4.62−4.98+3.16−0.512+5.66−0.26+1.42−1.15+0.98+1.56+2.54+0.22−0.44+0.52−1.55+2.33+1.10−0.93+1.22−0.20−1.20−0.80−0.90−0.60−0.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 21 matches

Motherwell

3−2.15−0.48−3.96−0.79+3.48+1.84−2.05−0.66−1.019+11.79+2.62−3.84+1.03−2.88+1.24−1.10−4.12−1.440.06+0.72−0.92+0.60−0.93+1.06+2.90−1.10−0.60−0.90−0.51−0.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 21 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.030.020.020.010.020.010.010.010.020.010.030.060.040.010.010.05−0.01−0.02−0.010.050.110.19LessMore

Motherwell

0.010.010.010.010.040.020.010.020.060.020.020.050.020.020.04−0.010.03−0.01−0.02−0.070.06−0.02−0.010.010.14LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.24AttackSt. Mirren0.96 → 0.96Motherwell1.06 → 1.04Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.38 → 1.35Motherwell1.38 → 1.38

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six44%57%+13
11th4%2%−2
Bottom1%<1%−1
Motherwell
Top six10%5%−5
11th14%19%+5
Bottom6%8%+2
Hibernian
Top six58%54%−4
Aberdeen
Top six76%73%−3

From the forecast before the match (28 January 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenMotherwell
Expected goals1.281.06
Win41%30%
Expected Points1.521.19
Clean sheet35%28%

St. Mirren 41%Draw 29%Motherwell 30%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 48%.

Motherwell goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+10%5%2%7%2%8%8%4%2%3%4%2%1%1%10%12%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 28 January 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawMotherwell win
St. Mirren
Top six44%57%40%29%
11th4%2%4%7%
Bottom1%<1%1%3%
Motherwell
Top six10%5%9%18%
11th14%19%14%8%
Bottom6%8%5%3%
Hibernian
Top six58%54%60%60%
Aberdeen
Top six76%73%78%77%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. L0–418 JanCeltic (A)xG 0.53–2.25
  2. L0–113 JanHearts (A)xG 1.41–1.68
  3. D1–17 JanHearts (H)xG 0.66–0.99
  4. D0–02 JanKilmarnock (A)xG 0.35–0.70
  5. D1–128 DecLivingston (A)xG 1.36–1.59
  6. W3–124 DecAberdeen (H)xG 3.27–0.98

Motherwell

  1. D1–114 JanRoss County (H)xG 0.82–1.23
  2. L2–38 JanHibernian (H)xG 1.64–1.73
  3. D1–12 JanLivingston (A)xG 1.82–2.40
  4. L0–328 DecRangers (A)xG 0.41–2.55
  5. D2–223 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 1.33–0.34
  6. D1–112 NovSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.93–1.38

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenMotherwell
Position7th9th
Played2121
Won, drawn, lost7–⁠6–⁠85–⁠5–⁠11
Points27 (1.29 per game)20 (0.95 per game)
Expected Points per game1.081.28
Goals22–⁠3126–⁠32
xG per game1.07–⁠1.461.31–⁠1.43
Home: points, xG per game2.00, 1.22–⁠1.070.60, 1.34–⁠1.04
Away: points, xG per game0.50, 0.90–⁠1.881.27, 1.29–⁠1.78
ManagerStephen Robinson (14)Steven Hammell (21)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.24AttackSt. Mirren0.96, 11thMotherwell1.06, 7thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.38, 9thMotherwell1.38, 9th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanSt. Mirren attack: 0.96Motherwell attack: 1.061.060.96MotherwellSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanSt. Mirren defence: 1.38Motherwell defence: 1.381.381.38

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenMotherwell
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−32%−1%−9%+20%
Counter-attacks+25%+23%+60%+8%
Set pieces+8%+1%+7%−4%
Penalties−5%+90%+19%−29%
Headers+19%+10%−8%+26%
Left side−15%+13%+11%+2%
Centre−28%−3%−6%+32%
Right side−12%−8%−9%−3%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdMotherwell concededLeft side−15%−3%Centre−28%+32%Right side−12%+2%Open play−32%+20%Counter-attacks+25%+8%Set pieces+8%−4%Headers+19%+26%

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+11%−8%Centre−6%−3%Right side−9%+13%Open play−9%−1%Counter-attacks+60%+23%Set pieces+7%+1%Headers−8%+10%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenMotherwell

1.07xG1.31
1.46xG against1.43
36%Possession49%
11.5Shots12.3
12.5Shots against11.9
3.0Shots on target3.4
1.8Big chances1.7
17.4Touches in the opposition box17.9
257Passes356
62%Pass accuracy68%
5.6Corners5.5
36%Field tilt51%
30.0Final-third entries34.9
8.7Box entries9.1
17.6Passes per defensive action12.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level460.991.34
Ahead191.321.41
Behind251.031.72

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.341.72
Ahead181.201.07
Behind291.341.23

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.183–4
16–300.110.210–4
31–450.200.306–6
46–600.220.246–6
61–750.180.192–4
76–900.260.335–7

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.281–4
16–300.180.284–4
31–450.260.234–4
46–600.240.228–5
61–750.280.163–9
76–900.270.266–6

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTCarson 21Strain 18Fraser 2Flynn 1Fraser 14Gogic 5Gallagher 17Shaughne… 6ShaughnessyDunne 20R. Taylor 1Tanser 12Tait 7O'Hara 1Baccus 19Tanser 1Erhahon 19O'Hara 16Kiltie 5Gogic 3Ayunga 16Kiltie 1Main 19Greive 5Brophy 15-3-2 in 20 of 21 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (20), 3-5-2 (1)

Motherwell

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTKelly 21McGinn 16O'Donnell 4Johnston 1Johansen 18Mugabi 3McGinn 2Lamie 19Penney 16O'Donnell 4Carroll 1Slattery 12Cornelius 7Maguire 4Goss 15Tierney 1Morris 1Shields 9Spittal 4McKinstry 2Spittal 5Goss 5Slattery 3Spittal 10McKinstry 7Shields 2van Veen 17Shields 2Moult 14-2-3-1 in 11 of 21 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (11), 4-3-3 (6), 4-4-2 (2), 4-5-1 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
31 July 2022St. Mirren0–1MotherwellxG 2.38–1.16
2 April 2022Motherwell4–2St. MirrenxG 1.76–1.67
1 February 2022St. Mirren1–1MotherwellxG 0.46–0.81
27 October 2021Motherwell2–2St. MirrenxG 1.25–2.27
10 April 2021Motherwell1–0St. MirrenxG 1.95–1.45
24 February 2021St. Mirren0–0MotherwellxG 0.30–1.39

8 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 1, Motherwell won 3, and 4 were drawn. Goals 7–10 and xG 1.39–1.49 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Greive5539300.470.03
Ayunga161,270320.430.04
Main191,578300.200.08
O'Hara171,415400.180.05

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
van Veen201,742910.540.09
McKinstry9891410.170.19
Tierney4501200.220.11
Spittal201,524330.110.20

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.