Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

St. Mirren 2–1 Aberdeen

Saturday 2 March 2024, 15:00 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 29 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Nick Walsh · Attendance 7,019

St. Mirren O'Hara 90+6' (pen), Olusanya 90+7'

Aberdeen Barron 1'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenAberdeen
Goals21
xG2.010.98
Non-penalty xG1.220.98
Expected Points2.160.60

St. Mirren 64%Draw 24%Aberdeen 12%

Most likely score 2–1, 16%. Final score 2–1, 16%.

Aberdeen goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+2%2%1%9%5%1%11%8%1%6%9%4%2%3%1%14%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTOlusanya on for Jamieson, 46'McMenamin on for Bwomono, 61'Ayunga on for Kiltie, 62'O'Hara on for Boyd-Munce and Taylor on for Bolton, 81'McGrath on for Hoilett, 63'McGarry on for Duk, 64'O'Hara 90+6' (pen)Olusanya 90+7'Barron 1'St. Mirren 2.01Aberdeen 0.9801230153045607590HTOlusanya on for Jamieson, 46'McMenamin on for Bwomono, 61'Ayunga on for Kiltie, 62'O'Hara on for Boyd-Munce and Taylor on for Bolton, 81'McGrath on for Hoilett, 63'McGarry on for Duk, 64'O'Hara 90+6' (pen)Olusanya 90+7'Barron 1'2.010.98St. MirrenAberdeen

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenAberdeen

2.01 +0.93xG0.98 −0.39
1.22Non-penalty xG0.98
2.91 +1.72xG on target0.71 −0.56
14 +3Shots9 −3
5 +1.6Shots on target3 −1.1
5 +3.2Big chances1 −0.7
30 +11Touches in the opposition box13 −10
68% +23Possession32% −16
425 +85Passes204 −158
72% +7Pass accuracy47% −20
80% +36Field tilt20% −25
55 +22Final-third entries15 −16
15 +5.8Box entries5 −5.4
8.1 −9Passes per defensive action12.7 −2
3 −1.8Corners2 −2.6
12 −2Tackles9 −8
5 −3.0Interceptions3 −4.9
20 −3Clearances34 +9
2 −0.7Saves3 −0.3
16 +5Fouls22 +11
2 +0.5Offsides4 +2.8

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Bwomono 61', 0.14 xGTanser 17', 0.12 xGJamieson 17', 0.10 xGJamieson 30', 0.10 xGKiltie 45+1', 0.08 xGBolton 42', 0.07 xGKiltie 28', 0.06 xGOlusanya 63', 0.04 xGKiltie 8', 0.03 xGKwon 25', 0.03 xGMandron 35', 0.03 xGBoyd-Munce 66', 0.02 xGOlusanya 90+7', 0.40 xG, goal42%0.52 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.52 xG, 1 goal28%0.34 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.34 xG, 0 goals26%0.32 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.32 xG, 0 goals4%0.05 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Aberdeen

Miovski 48', 0.46 xGBarron 33', 0.13 xGMiovski 70', 0.13 xGGartenmann 55', 0.09 xGGartenmann 55', 0.05 xGShinnie 59', 0.05 xGPhillips 68', 0.04 xGJensen 37', 0.01 xGBarron 1', 0.02 xG, goal47%0.46 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.46 xG, 0 goals32%0.31 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.31 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals19%0.19 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.19 xG, 0 goals2%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 1 goal

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenAberdeen

0.84 7 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.54 4 shots, 1 goal
0.38 6 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.44 5 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
2 min (2%) · St. Mirren 0.40, Aberdeen 0.02 xG
St. Mirren ahead
1 min (1%) · St. Mirren 0.00, Aberdeen 0.00 xG
Aberdeen ahead
96 min (97%) · St. Mirren 1.61, Aberdeen 0.95 xG

Line-ups

121322421615324911HemmingBoltonGogicFraserBwomonoKwonBoyd-MunceTanserJamiesonMandronKiltieYellow card81'61'81'46'62'St. Mirren 3-4-3Stephen Robinson2426275841118309RoosDevlinGartenmannMacDonaldJensenBarronShinnieDukPhillipsHoilettMiovskiYellow cardGoalYellow cardYellow card64'63'Aberdeen 4-2-3-1Neil Warnock

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 46' Olusanya for Jamieson · goal 90+7'
  • 61' McMenamin for Bwomono
  • 62' Ayunga for Kiltie
  • 81' Taylor for Bolton
  • 81' O'Hara for Boyd-Munce · goal 90+6' (pen)

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 63' McGrath for Hoilett
  • 64' McGarry for Duk · yellow card 71'

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HemmingGK900.000.1020.0771
BoltonCB810.070.0200.1056
Gogic CB900.000.0000.0557
FraserCB900.000.0200.0656
BwomonoRWB610.140.1600.0631
KwonCM900.030.0510.0543
Boyd-MunceCM810.020.1630.0341
TanserLWB900.120.6220.1468
JamiesonRW460.190.010−0.0501
MandronST9010.030.5810.1215
KiltieLW620.170.1210.1620
OlusanyaFW4410.440.010−0.0300
McMenaminFW290.000.4000.3650
AyungaFW280.000.0000.0220
TaylorDF90.000.0000.0440
O'HaraMF910.790.0000.0000

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RoosGK900.000.0000.0012
Devlin RB900.000.0000.0204
GartenmannCB900.140.2600.1244
MacDonaldCB900.000.0000.00010
JensenLB900.010.0100.05511
BarronDM9010.150.0100.0028
Shinnie DM900.050.0200.0545
DukRW640.000.011−0.0113
PhillipsAM900.040.0000.0110
HoilettLW630.000.4040.2621
Miovski ST900.590.0010.0210
McGrathMF270.000.0000.0002
McGarry DF260.000.0000.0110

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Hemming and Bolton: 3 passesHemming and Mandron: 3 passesGogic and Tanser: 3 passesBolton and Fraser: 3 passesBolton and Kwon: 3 passesFraser and Bwomono: 3 passesTanser and Kiltie: 3 passesBoyd-Munce and Kwon: 3 passesJamieson and Mandron: 3 passesGogic and Bolton: 4 passesGogic and Fraser: 4 passesGogic and Boyd-Munce: 4 passesFraser and Tanser: 4 passesFraser and Boyd-Munce: 4 passesBwomono and Kwon: 4 passesBwomono and Jamieson: 4 passesTanser and Kwon: 4 passesTanser and Jamieson: 4 passesTanser and Mandron: 4 passesBoyd-Munce and Jamieson: 4 passesKwon and Jamieson: 4 passesFraser and Kiltie: 5 passesBoyd-Munce and Kiltie: 5 passesKwon and Kiltie: 6 passesBolton and Bwomono: 9 passesTanser and Boyd-Munce: 9 passesHemming: 10 completed passesGogic: 14 completed passesBolton: 18 completed passesFraser: 13 completed passesBwomono: 15 completed passesTanser: 12 completed passesBoyd-Munce: 21 completed passesKwon: 16 completed passesJamieson: 10 completed passesMandron: 6 completed passesKiltie: 10 completed passes113222423151624911HemmingGogicBoltonFraserBwomonoTanserBoyd-MunceKwonJamiesonMandronKiltieStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Aberdeen

Devlin and Barron: 3 passesGartenmann and Hoilett: 3 passesMacDonald and Hoilett: 3 passesJensen and Hoilett: 3 passesBarron and Hoilett: 3 passesDuk and Phillips: 3 passesRoos and MacDonald: 4 passesDevlin and Duk: 4 passesShinnie and Barron: 4 passesShinnie and Duk: 4 passesShinnie and Hoilett: 4 passesGartenmann and Barron: 5 passesRoos: 3 completed passesDevlin: 6 completed passesGartenmann: 9 completed passesMacDonald: 7 completed passesJensen: 6 completed passesShinnie: 10 completed passesBarron: 11 completed passesDuk: 7 completed passesPhillips: 4 completed passesHoilett: 8 completed passesMiovski: 2 completed passes2426275481118309RoosDevlinGartenmannMacDonaldJensenShinnieBarronDukPhillipsHoilettMiovskiStarters until 63' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
Boyd-MunceFraser11
FraserTanser10
FraserGogic10
GogicFraser9
TanserFraser8

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
BarronShinnie5
GartenmannBarron4
ShinnieMiovski3
MacDonaldRoos3
GartenmannMiovski3

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

2−3.33−3.710+2.07+1.97−0.56+1.27−0.75−2.21−5.00−4.91−1.93−3.213+6.56+1.82−1.10−2.53−0.22−1.62−0.70−2.010.00−1.33+0.81+0.11+0.80−0.91+0.710.08−6.22−5.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 28 matches

Aberdeen

3−2.16−2.324+8.75−2.75+0.86−1.74−2.46−0.13−5.92−6.67+0.92−3.82−1.73−2.27+0.87+2.62−1.00−2.01−2.73−2.13+0.40−2.11+0.22+0.44+1.41−0.12+1.51+0.70−0.30−0.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 27 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.040.010.040.030.030.020.030.030.030.030.010.050.030.020.040.05−0.01−0.04−0.040.080.090.120.030.030.220.21LessMore

Aberdeen

0.010.010.010.010.030.080.010.010.020.010.020.010.010.01−0.010.060.01−0.030.25LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackSt. Mirren1.12 → 1.15Aberdeen1.19 → 1.17Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.29 → 1.27Aberdeen1.41 → 1.44

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six97%>99%+3
Aberdeen
Top six12%6%−6
11th5%8%+3
Bottom<1%1%+1
Dundee FC
Top six35%37%+2
Hibernian
Top six44%44%0

From the forecast before the match (2 March 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenAberdeen
Expected goals1.451.07
Win45%27%
Expected Points1.631.10
Clean sheet34%24%

St. Mirren 45%Draw 28%Aberdeen 27%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 51%.

Aberdeen goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+9%8%5%2%7%2%8%9%5%2%4%4%2%1%2%11%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 2 March 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawAberdeen win
St. Mirren
Top six97%>99%97%92%
Aberdeen
Top six12%6%9%24%
11th5%8%6%2%
Bottom<1%1%<1%<1%
Dundee FC
Top six35%37%35%32%
Hibernian
Top six44%44%46%41%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. D1–127 FebRoss County (A)xG 0.67–1.02
  2. W2–024 FebSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.94–0.70
  3. L0–117 FebLivingston (A)xG 2.07–0.97
  4. W2–07 FebDundee FC (H)xG 1.63–0.26
  5. W3–03 FebHibernian (A)xG 2.40–0.41
  6. L0–127 JanRangers (H)xG 0.61–1.34

Aberdeen

  1. L0–228 FebSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.17–1.69
  2. L0–224 FebKilmarnock (A)xG 0.48–1.94
  3. D2–217 FebHibernian (H)xG 2.93–1.46
  4. D3–314 FebMotherwell (H)xG 1.44–2.56
  5. L1–26 FebRangers (A)xG 0.53–2.12
  6. D1–13 FebCeltic (H)xG 1.22–2.04

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenAberdeen
Position5th9th
Played2827
Won, drawn, lost11–⁠6–⁠116–⁠9–⁠12
Points39 (1.39 per game)27 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.241.24
Goals32–⁠3131–⁠45
xG per game1.08–⁠1.331.37–⁠1.65
Home: points, xG per game1.71, 1.06–⁠1.211.07, 1.56–⁠1.54
Away: points, xG per game1.07, 1.11–⁠1.450.92, 1.17–⁠1.76
ManagerStephen Robinson (23)Neil Warnock (5)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackSt. Mirren1.12, 8thAberdeen1.19, 4thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.29, 5thAberdeen1.41, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebSt. Mirren attack: 1.12Aberdeen attack: 1.191.191.12AberdeenSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebSt. Mirren defence: 1.29Aberdeen defence: 1.411.411.29

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenAberdeen
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−29%−2%−12%+22%
Counter-attacks−17%−6%+76%−4%
Set pieces−29%−4%+23%+14%
Penalties+46%+9%−24%+51%
Headers−14%−12%−4%+26%
Left side−29%−5%average+16%
Centre−33%+5%+17%+24%
Right side−18%−17%−15%+8%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdAberdeen concededLeft side−29%+8%Centre−33%+24%Right side−18%+16%Open play−29%+22%Counter-attacks−17%−4%Set pieces−29%+14%Headers−14%+26%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdSt. Mirren concededLeft sideaverage−17%Centre+17%+5%Right side−15%−5%Open play−12%−2%Counter-attacks+76%−6%Set pieces+23%−4%Headers−4%−12%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenAberdeen

1.08xG1.37
1.33xG against1.65
45%Possession48%
10.6Shots12.1
11.4Shots against13.3
3.4Shots on target4.1
1.8Big chances1.7
18.6Touches in the opposition box23.4
340Passes362
65%Pass accuracy67%
4.8Corners4.6
44%Field tilt45%
33.5Final-third entries30.8
9.2Box entries10.4
16.7Passes per defensive action14.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level410.881.37
Ahead241.501.31
Behind251.031.28

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level471.051.41
Ahead161.771.70
Behind271.682.02

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.166–5
16–300.130.191–5
31–450.170.227–5
46–600.230.196–3
61–750.140.193–5
76–900.260.399–8

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.120.262–7
16–300.170.355–7
31–450.320.209–3
46–600.220.226–4
61–750.250.235–8
76–900.290.394–16

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWHemming 28Fraser 25Bolton 8Gogic 28Taylor 19Dunne 4Strain 11Bwomono 6Fraser 3Baccus 12Kwon 6Jamieson 3Boyd-Munce 15O'Hara 11Kiltie 6Tanser 23O'Hara 4Boyd-Munce 1McMenamin 12Tanser 5Scott 3Mandron 13Olusanya 8Ayunga 5Kiltie 22Ayunga 3Mandron 23-4-3 in 14 of 28 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (14), 3-4-2-1 (7), 3-5-2 (6), 5-4-1 (1)

Aberdeen

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTRoos 27Gartenmann 22Devlin 5Polvara 5Rubezic 16MacDonald 6Jensen 21MacKenzie 4Devlin 21Milne 3Morris 3Clarkson 12Barron 12McGrath 3Shinnie 25MacKenzie 12McGarry 6Hayes 5McGrath 10Clarkson 8Polvara 6Miovski 26Sokler 4Duk 13McGrath 7Hayes 23-4-1-2 in 10 of 27 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (10), 4-2-3-1 (5), 3-5-2 (3), 5-4-1 (3), 3-4-2-1 (2), 5-3-2 (2), 4-3-3 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
30 December 2023Aberdeen0–3St. MirrenxG 1.03–2.73
27 August 2023St. Mirren2–2AberdeenxG 1.97–0.87
24 May 2023Aberdeen3–0St. MirrenxG 1.53–0.70
1 February 2023Aberdeen1–3St. MirrenxG 0.94–2.21
24 December 2022St. Mirren3–1AberdeenxG 3.27–0.98
6 August 2022Aberdeen4–1St. MirrenxG 3.37–0.93

13 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 5, Aberdeen won 4, and 4 were drawn. Goals 19–20 and xG 1.42–1.36 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Mandron151,333610.340.08
Jamieson5541100.200.22
Olusanya8868310.310.07
Kiltie282,252430.210.12

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miovski272,3361320.450.11
Sokler4527010.390.05
Duk131,261440.290.15
McGrath221,829710.290.12

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.