Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Aberdeen 3–3 Motherwell

Wednesday 14 February 2024, 19:45 · Pittodrie Stadium · Round 20 · Half-time 2–3 · Referee Kevin Clancy · Attendance 15,290

Aberdeen Duk 31', 50', Gartenmann 37'

Motherwell Bair 5' (pen), 22', Devine 26'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

AberdeenMotherwell
Goals33
xG1.442.56
Non-penalty xG1.441.77
Expected Points0.602.19

Aberdeen 13%Draw 21%Motherwell 66%

Most likely score 1–3, 13%. Final score 3–3, 4%.

Motherwell goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+2%7%7%3%5%5%1%4%4%1%4%4%2%1%1%12%13%10%10%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTMacDonald on for Polvara and Duk on for Morris, 30'Phillips on for Clarkson, 77'Nicholson on for Zdravkovski, 58'O'Donnell on for Devine and Obika on for Vale, 72'Duk 31'Gartenmann 37'Duk 50'Bair 5' (pen)Bair 22'Devine 26'Motherwell 2.56Aberdeen 1.4401230153045607590HTMacDonald on for Polvara and Duk on for Morris, 30'Phillips on for Clarkson, 77'Nicholson on for Zdravkovski, 58'O'Donnell on for Devine and Obika on for Vale, 72'Duk 31'Gartenmann 37'Duk 50'Bair 5' (pen)Bair 22'Devine 26'2.561.44AberdeenMotherwell

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

AberdeenMotherwell

1.44 +0.14xG2.56 +1.37
1.44Non-penalty xG1.77
1.99 +0.76xG on target3.61 +2.32
14 +3Shots11 0
7 +3.3Shots on target7 +3.2
3 +1.4Big chances4 +2.1
28 +5Touches in the opposition box10 −10
60% +13Possession40% −5
504 +142Passes342 −4
78% +10Pass accuracy69% +3
71% +28Field tilt29% −17
58 +28Final-third entries26 −5
13 +2.8Box entries3 −6.8
17.8 +3Passes per defensive action20.1 +5
7 +2.7Corners3 −1.3
13 −4Tackles17 0
8 −0.2Interceptions12 +4.2
22 −3Clearances42 +20
4 +0.8Saves4 +1.8
6 −5Fouls14 +2
2 +0.8Offsides2 +0.8

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Aberdeen

Clarkson 46', 0.14 xGMiovski 12', 0.09 xGClarkson 42', 0.08 xGBarron 18', 0.07 xGGartenmann 70', 0.07 xGDevlin 37', 0.05 xGClarkson 12', 0.04 xGMcGrath 18', 0.04 xGMacDonald 43', 0.04 xGMacKenzie 77', 0.04 xGMorris 22', 0.03 xGDuk 31', 0.37 xG, goalGartenmann 37', 0.33 xG, goalDuk 50', 0.04 xG, goal41%0.59 xGSix-yard box: 4 shots, 0.59 xG, 1 goal31%0.45 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.45 xG, 2 goals18%0.26 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.26 xG, 0 goals10%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Motherwell

Vale 20', 0.50 xGBair 20', 0.11 xGDevine 11', 0.08 xGSpittal 26', 0.05 xGVale 54', 0.03 xGNicholson 60', 0.03 xGPaton 20', 0.02 xGZdravkovski 48', 0.01 xGBair 22', 0.75 xG, goalDevine 26', 0.20 xG, goal42%0.75 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.75 xG, 1 goal53%0.93 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.93 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals5%0.08 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

AberdeenMotherwell

0.64 7 shots, 2 goalsOpen play1.69 9 shots, 2 goals
0.09 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.71 6 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.08 1 shot, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
50 min (53%) · Aberdeen 0.11, Motherwell 0.85 xG
Motherwell ahead
45 min (47%) · Aberdeen 1.33, Motherwell 1.71 xG

Line-ups

242632084710219RoosDevlinGartenmannMacKenzieMorrisBarronShinnieMcGrathClarksonPolvaraMiovskiGoalYellow card30'77'30'Aberdeen 3-4-2-1Neil Warnock156616211712732814KellyMugabiButcherMcGinnDevineZdravkovskiPatonSpittalGentValeBairYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoalGoal72'58'72'Motherwell 3-5-2Stuart Kettlewell

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 30' MacDonald for Polvara · yellow card 83'
  • 30' Duk for Morris · goal 31', goal 50'
  • 77' Phillips for Clarkson

Motherwell substitutes

  • 58' Nicholson for Zdravkovski · yellow card 61'
  • 72' O'Donnell for Devine
  • 72' Obika for Vale

Players

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RoosGK900.000.0000.0221
DevlinCB900.050.0200.25124
GartenmannCB9010.400.1910.18211
MacKenzieCB900.040.0200.0957
MorrisRWB300.030.0000.0110
BarronCM900.070.1430.15135
Shinnie CM9010.000.1730.2054
McGrathLWB900.040.0610.1166
ClarksonAM770.270.0620.0621
PolvaraAM300.000.021−0.0701
MiovskiST900.090.070−0.0101
MacDonald DF600.040.0100.0636
DukFW6020.410.010−0.0600
PhillipsMF130.000.0100.0220

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Kelly GK900.000.0000.0352
MugabiCB900.000.0000.0117
Butcher CB900.000.0000.02315
McGinn CB900.000.0110.06714
DevineRWB7210.270.0000.0115
ZdravkovskiCM580.010.0000.0321
PatonCM900.020.0000.0234
SpittalCM900.050.0310.1573
GentLWB9010.000.3520.22611
ValeST720.530.0910.0633
BairST9021.640.022−0.0321
Nicholson DF320.030.0000.0301
O'DonnellDF180.000.0000.0115
ObikaFW180.000.0000.0001

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Aberdeen

Roos and Gartenmann: 3 passesGartenmann and Clarkson: 3 passesMacKenzie and Barron: 3 passesMorris and Clarkson: 3 passesMacKenzie and Polvara: 4 passesBarron and Polvara: 4 passesClarkson and Miovski: 4 passesGartenmann and Shinnie: 5 passesMcGrath and Shinnie: 5 passesBarron and Clarkson: 5 passesGartenmann and Barron: 6 passesBarron and Shinnie: 6 passesMacKenzie and Shinnie: 7 passesDevlin and Morris: 8 passesMacKenzie and McGrath: 8 passesMorris and Barron: 8 passesMcGrath and Polvara: 11 passesDevlin and Barron: 12 passesGartenmann and MacKenzie: 14 passesGartenmann and Devlin: 20 passesRoos: 3 completed passesGartenmann: 30 completed passesDevlin: 25 completed passesMacKenzie: 20 completed passesMorris: 5 completed passesMcGrath: 16 completed passesBarron: 23 completed passesShinnie: 18 completed passesPolvara: 12 completed passesClarkson: 8 completed passesMiovski: 4 completed passes246232078421109RoosGartenmannDevlinMacKenzieMorrisMcGrathBarronShinniePolvaraClarksonMiovskiStarters until 30' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Motherwell

Kelly and Devine: 3 passesKelly and Paton: 3 passesKelly and Bair: 3 passesButcher and McGinn: 3 passesDevine and Spittal: 3 passesZdravkovski and Bair: 3 passesVale and Bair: 3 passesMugabi and Paton: 4 passesButcher and Vale: 4 passesMcGinn and Bair: 4 passesGent and Vale: 4 passesPaton and Zdravkovski: 4 passesKelly and McGinn: 5 passesMugabi and Devine: 5 passesDevine and Paton: 5 passesDevine and Zdravkovski: 5 passesPaton and Spittal: 5 passesSpittal and Bair: 5 passesMugabi and Zdravkovski: 6 passesPaton and Vale: 6 passesMcGinn and Zdravkovski: 7 passesDevine and Vale: 7 passesMcGinn and Gent: 8 passesMcGinn and Spittal: 8 passesZdravkovski and Spittal: 8 passesGent and Spittal: 18 passesKelly: 12 completed passesMugabi: 12 completed passesButcher: 7 completed passesMcGinn: 23 completed passesDevine: 18 completed passesGent: 18 completed passesPaton: 13 completed passesZdravkovski: 18 completed passesSpittal: 25 completed passesVale: 13 completed passesBair: 10 completed passes156616213121772814KellyMugabiButcherMcGinnDevineGentPatonZdravkovskiSpittalValeBairStarters until 58' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
GartenmannDevlin20
DevlinGartenmann20
BarronDevlin17
GartenmannBarron13
DevlinBarron12

Motherwell

FromToPasses
GentSpittal14
SpittalGent13
McGinnSpittal12
SpittalMcGinn8
ValeDevine7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Aberdeen

5−0.37−1.413−2.64−0.311+3.14−2.75−1.44−4.97+0.97+1.06+2.16+0.711+5.23−1.11−2.06+4.11−3.01−4.12−0.51−0.91+0.30−1.44+1.61−0.10−0.50−0.30−0.30−0.41−7.32−7.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 23 matches

Motherwell

1−3.710+3.023+7.513+5.610+4.37+0.16−0.912+5.14−3.317+10.04−1.76+0.86+2.25−0.39+1.55−0.52−2.030.05+1.89+4.61−1.00−2.00−1.20−1.53+0.210.00−0.51+0.20−0.50−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 24 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Aberdeen

0.040.010.030.010.070.040.010.030.020.090.050.030.030.050.04−0.060.07−0.010.07−0.010.060.020.31LessMore

Motherwell

0.010.020.010.010.010.010.020.010.010.030.010.010.010.010.060.010.100.050.010.20LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.28AttackAberdeen1.18 → 1.17Motherwell1.18 → 1.22Defence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.35 → 1.38Motherwell1.33 → 1.32

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Aberdeen
Top six46%42%−4
11th1%2%+1
Motherwell
Top six13%12%−1
11th4%3%−1
Bottom<1%<1%0
Dundee FC
Top six36%38%+2
Hibernian
Top six18%20%+2
11th5%6%+1

From the forecast before the match (14 February 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

AberdeenMotherwell
Expected goals1.451.13
Win44%29%
Expected Points1.581.14
Clean sheet32%24%

Aberdeen 44%Draw 27%Motherwell 29%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 52%.

Motherwell goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+8%8%5%2%7%3%8%9%5%2%4%4%2%1%2%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 14 February 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowAberdeen winDrawMotherwell win
Aberdeen
Top six46%58%42%30%
11th1%<1%2%2%
Motherwell
Top six13%6%12%25%
11th4%5%3%2%
Bottom<1%1%<1%<1%
Dundee FC
Top six36%34%38%38%
Hibernian
Top six18%16%20%20%
11th5%5%6%5%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Aberdeen

  1. L1–26 FebRangers (A)xG 0.53–2.12
  2. D1–13 FebCeltic (H)xG 1.22–2.04
  3. D1–130 JanDundee FC (H)xG 1.46–0.59
  4. L0–227 JanHearts (A)xG 0.93–1.58
  5. D1–124 JanSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.21–0.99
  6. W3–02 JanRoss County (A)xG 1.72–0.14

Motherwell

  1. W5–06 FebRoss County (H)xG 2.91–1.05
  2. D1–13 FebKilmarnock (H)xG 1.14–0.24
  3. D1–127 JanSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.87–0.82
  4. D2–22 JanHibernian (A)xG 1.55–0.72
  5. W3–130 DecLivingston (H)xG 1.48–0.94
  6. L0–224 DecRangers (H)xG 0.34–1.37

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

AberdeenMotherwell
Position9th8th
Played2324
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠7–⁠105–⁠10–⁠9
Points25 (1.09 per game)25 (1.04 per game)
Expected Points per game1.241.23
Goals26–⁠3632–⁠36
xG per game1.30–⁠1.601.19–⁠1.41
Home: points, xG per game1.18, 1.39–⁠1.441.23, 1.35–⁠1.30
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.22–⁠1.750.82, 1.00–⁠1.55
ManagerNeil Warnock (1)Stuart Kettlewell (38)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.28AttackAberdeen1.18, 5thMotherwell1.18, 4thDefence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.35, 7thMotherwell1.33, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebAberdeen attack: 1.18Motherwell attack: 1.181.181.18MotherwellAberdeenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebAberdeen defence: 1.35Motherwell defence: 1.331.351.33

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

AberdeenMotherwell
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−15%+18%−10%+11%
Counter-attacks+77%−11%+35%−30%
Set pieces+6%+25%−25%+3%
Penalties−11%+34%−15%+7%
Headers−9%+41%−15%+35%
Left side−10%+20%−21%+26%
Centre+13%+20%+6%+3%
Right side−22%+9%−33%−13%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdMotherwell concededLeft side−10%−13%Centre+13%+3%Right side−22%+26%Open play−15%+11%Counter-attacks+77%−30%Set pieces+6%+3%Headers−9%+35%

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdAberdeen concededLeft side−21%+9%Centre+6%+20%Right side−33%+20%Open play−10%+18%Counter-attacks+35%−11%Set pieces−25%+25%Headers−15%+41%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

AberdeenMotherwell

1.30xG1.19
1.60xG against1.41
47%Possession45%
11.4Shots10.7
13.6Shots against13.1
3.7Shots on target3.8
1.6Big chances1.9
22.6Touches in the opposition box19.5
362Passes346
67%Pass accuracy65%
4.3Corners4.3
43%Field tilt46%
29.7Final-third entries31.0
10.2Box entries9.8
14.9Passes per defensive action15.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.041.32
Ahead181.801.71
Behind261.412.02

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level460.951.40
Ahead131.141.61
Behind311.561.35

xG by period

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.211–5
16–300.170.315–5
31–450.290.187–1
46–600.190.234–3
61–750.260.235–7
76–900.300.444–15

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.123–5
16–300.120.224–10
31–450.230.195–2
46–600.100.321–5
61–750.270.265–7
76–900.380.3014–7

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Aberdeen

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTRoos 23Gartenmann 18Devlin 4Polvara 4Rubezic 16MacDonald 5Jensen 18MacKenzie 3Devlin 19Milne 2Morris 2Clarkson 11Barron 9McGrath 2Shinnie 23MacKenzie 10McGarry 6Hayes 5McGrath 8Clarkson 7Polvara 6Miovski 22Sokler 4Duk 11McGrath 7Hayes 23-4-1-2 in 10 of 23 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (10), 4-2-3-1 (4), 3-5-2 (3), 5-4-1 (3), 5-3-2 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Motherwell

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWKelly 24McGinn 14O'Donnell 5Mugabi 20Butcher 6Casey 16Blaney 11O'Donnell 17Spencer 5McGinn 1Paton 14Slattery 9Wilkinson 2Spittal 9Zdravkovski 5Miller 5Spencer 10Gent 4Paton 2Slattery 8Gent 4Spittal 3Bair 10Biereth 6Wilkinson 3Spittal 8Bair 7Biereth 43-4-3 in 6 of 24 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (6), 3-4-2-1 (5), 3-5-2 (4), 3-1-4-2 (3), 5-4-1 (2), 3-5-1-1 (2), 5-3-2 (2)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
1 November 2023Motherwell2–4AberdeenxG 1.44–2.24
4 February 2023Aberdeen3–1MotherwellxG 1.94–0.85
22 October 2022Motherwell1–2AberdeenxG 0.71–1.11
13 August 2022Aberdeen2–3MotherwellxG 1.27–2.72
19 February 2022Motherwell1–1AberdeenxG 2.62–1.23
6 November 2021Aberdeen0–2MotherwellxG 0.94–0.47

10 league meetings since 2020/21: Aberdeen won 4, Motherwell won 4, and 2 were drawn. Goals 14–15 and xG 1.52–1.22 per game.

Key players

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miovski231,9761320.460.10
Sokler4496010.410.06
Duk111,034240.280.16
McGrath181,498610.290.12

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Biereth111,022650.360.22
Bair171,391830.380.08
Spittal242,160580.170.25
Wilkinson7648310.160.12

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.