Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Livingston 1–0 St. Mirren

Saturday 17 February 2024, 15:00 · Tony Macaroni Arena · Round 26 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Euan Anderson · Attendance 2,120

Livingston Yengi 45+3'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

LivingstonSt. Mirren
Goals10
xG0.972.07
Non-penalty xG0.971.29
Expected Points0.552.20

Livingston 10%Draw 25%St. Mirren 65%

Most likely score 1–2, 19%. Final score 1–0, 3%.

St. Mirren goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+1%7%8%5%2%3%12%5%1%4%6%3%1%17%19%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTDevlin on for Shinnie, 66'Mackay on for Stephen Kelly, 83'Guthrie on for Yengi, 88'Jamieson on for Scott, 46'Baccus on for Kwon and Olusanya on for Kiltie, 69'Brown on for Bwomono, 83'Yengi 45+3'St. Mirren 2.07Livingston 0.9701230153045607590HTDevlin on for Shinnie, 66'Mackay on for Stephen Kelly, 83'Guthrie on for Yengi, 88'Jamieson on for Scott, 46'Baccus on for Kwon and Olusanya on for Kiltie, 69'Brown on for Bwomono, 83'Yengi 45+3'2.070.97LivingstonSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

LivingstonSt. Mirren

0.97 0.00xG2.07 +1.00
0.97Non-penalty xG1.29
1.21 +0.44xG on target0.99 −0.21
6 −3.2Shots21 +10.9
3 +0.8Shots on target3 −0.4
1 −0.3Big chances2 +0.2
10 −7Touches in the opposition box36 +18
36% −8Possession64% +20
270 −58Passes446 +116
56% −6Pass accuracy74% +9
16% −27Field tilt84% +42
21 −7Final-third entries46 +13
3 −4.6Box entries16 +7.0
19.7 +5Passes per defensive action13.2 −4
4 +0.6Corners9 +4.4
14 −2Tackles7 −8
3 −4.4Interceptions4 −4.3
52 +29Clearances13 −11
2 −1.0Saves2 −0.9
12 0Fouls11 0
1 −1.0Offsides2 +0.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Livingston

Shinnie 27', 0.09 xGStephen Kelly 78', 0.06 xGObileye 45+3', 0.05 xGYengi 23', 0.04 xGStephen Kelly 27', 0.04 xGYengi 45+3', 0.68 xG, goal71%0.68 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.68 xG, 1 goal15%0.14 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals4%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals4%0.04 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals6%0.06 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Mandron 90+5', 0.23 xGDunne 90+6', 0.14 xGMandron 9', 0.12 xGKiltie 51', 0.10 xGGogic 84', 0.09 xGBoyd-Munce 90+6', 0.09 xGKiltie 46', 0.08 xGKwon 65', 0.07 xGTanser 54', 0.05 xGBoyd-Munce 64', 0.05 xGBaccus 85', 0.05 xGFraser 3', 0.04 xGKiltie 22', 0.04 xGBoyd-Munce 51', 0.03 xGKwon 61', 0.03 xGDunne 62', 0.03 xGJamieson 84', 0.02 xGTanser 25', 0.01 xGBoyd-Munce 38', 0.01 xGBoyd-Munce 45', 0.01 xG27%0.35 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.35 xG, 0 goals55%0.71 xGCentral box: 10 shots, 0.71 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals16%0.20 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals2%0.02 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

LivingstonSt. Mirren

0.23 4 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.71 9 shots, 0 goals
0.73 2 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.57 11 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
48 min (48%) · Livingston 0.90, St. Mirren 0.22 xG
Livingston ahead
51 min (52%) · Livingston 0.06, St. Mirren 1.85 xG

Line-ups

1122162022418193310GeorgeBrandonNottinghamObileyeSangareShinnieCarsonHoltNoubleYengiStephen KellyYellow cardGoal66'88'83'Livingston 4-3-3David Martindale1221318421615314911HemmingFraserGogicDunneBwomonoKwonBoyd-MunceTanserScottMandronKiltieYellow card83'69'46'69'St. Mirren 3-4-3Stephen Robinson

Livingston substitutes

  • 66' Devlin for Shinnie
  • 83' Mackay for Stephen Kelly
  • 88' Guthrie for Yengi

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 46' Jamieson for Scott
  • 69' Baccus for Kwon
  • 69' Olusanya for Kiltie
  • 83' Brown for Bwomono

Players

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GeorgeGK900.000.0000.0454
Brandon RB900.000.2010.2146
NottinghamCB900.000.0210.02213
ObileyeCB900.050.0000.03212
SangareLB900.000.0100.03416
ShinnieCM660.090.0100.0101
CarsonCM900.000.0000.0022
HoltCM900.000.0000.0015
NoubleRW900.000.0100.0227
YengiST8810.720.0000.0333
Stephen KellyLW830.100.0000.0327
DevlinDF240.000.0000.0000
MackayFW70.000.0300.0111
GuthrieFW20.000.0000.0000

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HemmingGK900.000.0000.0550
FraserCB900.040.0200.0695
GogicCB900.090.0100.0133
DunneCB900.170.0310.1394
BwomonoRWB830.000.0100.0242
KwonCM690.100.0100.0240
Boyd-Munce CM900.190.3930.4763
TanserLWB900.060.3700.29143
ScottRW460.000.0000.0001
MandronST901.140.3130.0721
KiltieLW690.220.1820.1040
JamiesonFW440.020.3120.1830
BaccusMF210.050.0000.0111
OlusanyaFW210.000.0000.0711
BrownDF70.000.0000.0110

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Livingston

George and Sangare: 3 passesNottingham and Holt: 3 passesSangare and Holt: 3 passesCarson and Shinnie: 3 passesCarson and Yengi: 3 passesShinnie and Nouble: 3 passesGeorge and Obileye: 4 passesBrandon and Shinnie: 4 passesObileye and Sangare: 4 passesSangare and Shinnie: 4 passesHolt and Stephen Kelly: 4 passesObileye and Holt: 5 passesNottingham and Carson: 5 passesShinnie and Stephen Kelly: 5 passesBrandon and Nottingham: 6 passesBrandon and Nouble: 6 passesObileye and Nottingham: 6 passesCarson and Holt: 6 passesGeorge and Yengi: 7 passesBrandon and Carson: 7 passesGeorge and Nottingham: 8 passesGeorge: 15 completed passesBrandon: 14 completed passesObileye: 17 completed passesNottingham: 15 completed passesSangare: 8 completed passesCarson: 15 completed passesShinnie: 11 completed passesHolt: 17 completed passesNouble: 10 completed passesYengi: 4 completed passesStephen Kelly: 9 completed passes1126212042218193310GeorgeBrandonObileyeNottinghamSangareCarsonShinnieHoltNoubleYengiStephen KellyStarters until 66' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

St. Mirren

Hemming and Tanser: 3 passesGogic and Dunne: 3 passesGogic and Bwomono: 3 passesDunne and Scott: 3 passesFraser and Kiltie: 3 passesTanser and Mandron: 3 passesBoyd-Munce and Scott: 3 passesDunne and Kiltie: 4 passesBoyd-Munce and Kwon: 4 passesKwon and Kiltie: 4 passesGogic and Boyd-Munce: 5 passesMandron and Kiltie: 5 passesHemming and Gogic: 6 passesFraser and Mandron: 6 passesFraser and Bwomono: 7 passesFraser and Kwon: 7 passesBoyd-Munce and Mandron: 7 passesBoyd-Munce and Kiltie: 7 passesDunne and Tanser: 8 passesDunne and Boyd-Munce: 9 passesBwomono and Kwon: 10 passesTanser and Kiltie: 12 passesTanser and Boyd-Munce: 13 passesGogic and Fraser: 15 passesHemming: 8 completed passesGogic: 20 completed passesDunne: 21 completed passesFraser: 23 completed passesBwomono: 15 completed passesTanser: 19 completed passesBoyd-Munce: 25 completed passesKwon: 16 completed passesScott: 8 completed passesMandron: 11 completed passesKiltie: 18 completed passes1131822423151614911HemmingGogicDunneFraserBwomonoTanserBoyd-MunceKwonScottMandronKiltieStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Livingston

FromToPasses
GeorgeYengi9
NottinghamBrandon5
BrandonNouble5
HoltSangare5
ObileyeHolt4

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
Boyd-MunceTanser15
GogicFraser14
DunneTanser13
FraserGogic12
TanserBoyd-Munce11

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Livingston

8+2.411+3.638+22.96−0.75−0.57+0.79+1.85+0.75−2.72−5.34−2.010+5.12−1.66+0.16−0.12−2.42−1.81−0.81−2.27+1.80−3.20−1.90−0.81−1.36+2.91+0.10−0.30−0.70−0.31+0.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 25 matches

St. Mirren

7+1.65−1.94−4.22−3.37−0.86−1.76+1.32−6.12−5.36−0.14−0.91−1.96−0.46−0.44−0.21−2.01−1.45+1.93−0.52−0.73+1.01+0.30−1.43+0.80−1.00−0.31+0.10−0.410.05−10.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 25 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Livingston

0.010.020.010.020.020.040.010.020.060.02−0.010.010.020.010.17LessMore

St. Mirren

0.010.010.010.010.030.020.010.020.030.050.070.010.230.050.030.050.200.140.03−0.02−0.01−0.050.190.010.37LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackLivingston0.97 → 0.97St. Mirren1.11 → 1.12Defence (lower is better)Livingston1.43 → 1.43St. Mirren1.30 → 1.28

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Livingston
11th22%27%+5
Bottom70%60%−10
St. Mirren
Top six92%88%−4
Ross County
11th46%40%−6
Bottom24%31%+7
St. Johnstone
11th21%20%−1
Bottom5%7%+2

From the forecast before the match (17 February 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

LivingstonSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.171.12
Win36%34%
Expected Points1.391.32
Clean sheet33%31%

Livingston 36%Draw 30%St. Mirren 34%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 47%.

St. Mirren goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+6%2%7%3%7%8%4%2%3%3%2%11%11%11%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 17 February 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowLivingston winDrawSt. Mirren win
Livingston
11th22%27%20%17%
Bottom70%60%73%79%
St. Mirren
Top six92%88%92%98%
Ross County
11th46%40%47%51%
Bottom24%31%22%18%
St. Johnstone
11th21%20%22%21%
Bottom5%7%4%3%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Livingston

  1. L0–17 FebKilmarnock (A)xG 0.72–0.75
  2. L0–33 FebRangers (A)xG 0.00–2.68
  3. D2–230 JanRoss County (H)xG 1.34–0.73
  4. L1–427 JanDundee FC (H)xG 2.22–1.11
  5. L1–22 JanHearts (H)xG 1.66–1.94
  6. L1–330 DecMotherwell (A)xG 0.94–1.48

St. Mirren

  1. W2–07 FebDundee FC (H)xG 1.63–0.26
  2. W3–03 FebHibernian (A)xG 2.40–0.41
  3. L0–127 JanRangers (H)xG 0.61–1.34
  4. L0–32 JanCeltic (H)xG 0.18–3.62
  5. W3–030 DecAberdeen (A)xG 2.73–1.03
  6. L0–127 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 0.46–0.81

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

LivingstonSt. Mirren
Position12th5th
Played2525
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠7–⁠1610–⁠5–⁠10
Points13 (0.52 per game)35 (1.40 per game)
Expected Points per game1.251.21
Goals15–⁠4229–⁠29
xG per game0.97–⁠1.311.07–⁠1.38
Home: points, xG per game0.67, 1.22–⁠1.161.62, 1.07–⁠1.25
Away: points, xG per game0.38, 0.74–⁠1.451.17, 1.06–⁠1.53
ManagerDavid Martindale (124)Stephen Robinson (20)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackLivingston0.97, 10thSt. Mirren1.11, 8thDefence (lower is better)Livingston1.43, 8thSt. Mirren1.30, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebLivingston attack: 0.97St. Mirren attack: 1.111.110.97St. MirrenLivingstonDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebLivingston defence: 1.43St. Mirren defence: 1.301.431.30

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

LivingstonSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−45%−3%−30%+3%
Counter-attacks−16%−14%−9%+4%
Set pieces−27%+6%−35%−9%
Penalties+43%−18%+43%+22%
Headers−24%−19%−12%−10%
Left side−42%+5%−34%+6%
Centre−30%−6%−35%+6%
Right side−48%+1%−14%−21%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−42%−21%Centre−30%+6%Right side−48%+6%Open play−45%+3%Counter-attacks−16%+4%Set pieces−27%−9%Headers−24%−10%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdLivingston concededLeft side−34%+1%Centre−35%−6%Right side−14%+5%Open play−30%−3%Counter-attacks−9%−14%Set pieces−35%+6%Headers−12%−19%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

LivingstonSt. Mirren

0.97xG1.07
1.31xG against1.38
44%Possession44%
9.2Shots10.1
13.1Shots against12.1
2.2Shots on target3.4
1.3Big chances1.8
17.0Touches in the opposition box18.1
328Passes330
62%Pass accuracy65%
3.4Corners4.6
43%Field tilt42%
27.8Final-third entries32.6
7.6Box entries9.0
14.4Passes per defensive action16.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level520.781.24
Ahead51.570.76
Behind321.161.51

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level420.911.34
Ahead251.531.33
Behind230.861.53

xG by period

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.070.211–3
16–300.080.152–6
31–450.170.152–7
46–600.130.302–8
61–750.170.184–5
76–900.340.324–13

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.146–4
16–300.140.201–5
31–450.180.216–4
46–600.220.216–3
61–750.150.212–5
76–900.220.408–8

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Livingston

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTGeorge 19Hamilton 4McGovern 2de Lucas 10Nottingham 8Donnellan 3Obileye 19Devlin 17Sean Kelly 7Parkes 3Brandon 13Mackay 4Nouble 3Holt 22Penrice 7Sangare 2Shinnie 12Pittman 4Sean Kelly 2Penrice 15Pittman 2Shinnie 2Pittman 13Stephen Kelly 5Bradley 4Nouble 9Anderson 7Shinnie 3Nouble 9Guthrie 9Anderson 53-4-2-1 in 8 of 25 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (8), 3-4-1-2 (7), 3-5-2 (3), 4-3-1-2 (2), 4-5-1 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-3-2-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWHemming 25Fraser 22Bolton 6Gogic 25Taylor 19Dunne 3Strain 11Fraser 3Bwomono 3Baccus 12Kwon 3Jamieson 3Boyd-Munce 12O'Hara 11Kiltie 6Tanser 20O'Hara 4Boyd-Munce 1McMenamin 12Tanser 5O'Hara 3Mandron 10Olusanya 8Ayunga 5Kiltie 19Ayunga 3Mandron 23-4-3 in 11 of 25 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (11), 3-4-2-1 (7), 3-5-2 (6), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
25 November 2023St. Mirren1–0LivingstonxG 0.81–0.59
2 September 2023Livingston1–1St. MirrenxG 1.45–0.67
1 April 2023St. Mirren3–0LivingstonxG 3.07–1.20
28 December 2022Livingston1–1St. MirrenxG 1.59–1.36
1 October 2022St. Mirren2–1LivingstonxG 0.77–1.45
11 May 2022St. Mirren0–0LivingstonxG 0.64–0.85

12 league meetings since 2020/21: Livingston won 0, St. Mirren won 6, and 6 were drawn. Goals 6–14 and xG 0.96–0.94 per game.

Key players

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Anderson121,335300.330.06
Mackay5478110.130.23
Sean Kelly10862300.290.04
Penrice221,902020.030.19

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Mandron121,089510.300.06
Olusanya8813210.290.05
Kiltie252,031430.220.12
O'Hara181,563310.220.06

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.