Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Motherwell 0–1 Aberdeen

Saturday 16 March 2024, 15:00 · Fir Park · Round 30 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee William Collum · Attendance 5,659

Aberdeen Clarkson 25'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

MotherwellAberdeen
Goals01
xG1.321.17
Expected Points1.471.23

Motherwell 39%Draw 30%Aberdeen 31%

Most likely score 1–1, 16%. Final score 0–1, 9%.

Aberdeen goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+7%9%5%2%11%8%3%7%10%6%2%3%4%2%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTGent on for Mugabi and Halliday on for Nicholson, 46'Devine on for Blaney, 62'Ferrie on for Vale, 74'Wells on for Miller, 83'Milne on for Devlin, 22'Polvara on for Hoilett, 80'Phillips on for Clarkson, 81'Sokler on for Miovski, 88'Clarkson 25'Motherwell 1.32Aberdeen 1.1700.511.50153045607590HTGent on for Mugabi and Halliday on for Nicholson, 46'Devine on for Blaney, 62'Ferrie on for Vale, 74'Wells on for Miller, 83'Milne on for Devlin, 22'Polvara on for Hoilett, 80'Phillips on for Clarkson, 81'Sokler on for Miovski, 88'Clarkson 25'1.321.17MotherwellAberdeen

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

MotherwellAberdeen

1.32 +0.14xG1.17 −0.16
1.02 −0.37xG on target0.64 −0.58
14 +3Shots14 +2
5 +1.1Shots on target4 0.0
1 −1.0Big chances2 +0.4
27 +8Touches in the opposition box40 +17
50% +6Possession50% +3
436 +94Passes451 +97
74% +8Pass accuracy74% +8
48% +5Field tilt52% +8
48 +18Final-third entries36 +6
14 +4.6Box entries23 +12.8
16.4 0Passes per defensive action16.3 +2
6 +1.7Corners6 +1.5
14 −2Tackles11 −6
9 +1.2Interceptions14 +6.4
17 −7Clearances31 +6
3 +0.2Saves5 +1.7
13 +1Fouls10 −1
0 −1.2Offsides2 +0.7

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Motherwell

Halliday 90+1', 0.36 xGBair 15', 0.22 xGSpittal 64', 0.12 xGCasey 18', 0.11 xGNicholson 32', 0.11 xGBair 76', 0.09 xGFerrie 78', 0.09 xGVale 45+4', 0.08 xGBair 75', 0.03 xGHalliday 85', 0.03 xGBlaney 19', 0.02 xGCasey 45', 0.02 xGVale 55', 0.02 xGBair 76', 0.02 xG44%0.58 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.58 xG, 0 goals42%0.56 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 0.56 xG, 0 goals11%0.15 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Aberdeen

McGrath 69', 0.21 xGSokler 89', 0.14 xGMiovski 25', 0.12 xGMilne 42', 0.09 xGMiovski 60', 0.09 xGMiovski 45+3', 0.08 xGClarkson 24', 0.07 xGMacKenzie 62', 0.06 xGMiovski 45+2', 0.05 xGMiovski 87', 0.05 xGMiovski 6', 0.03 xGShinnie 52', 0.03 xGPolvara 89', 0.03 xGClarkson 25', 0.12 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals83%0.97 xGCentral box: 9 shots, 0.97 xG, 1 goal15%0.17 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals3%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

MotherwellAberdeen

1.04 9 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.00 12 shots, 1 goal
0.10 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.17 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.17 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
25 min (26%) · Motherwell 0.35, Aberdeen 0.34 xG
Aberdeen ahead
71 min (74%) · Motherwell 0.96, Aberdeen 0.83 xG

Line-ups

115520219387162814KellyCaseyMugabiBlaneyO'DonnellNicholsonMillerSpittalMcGinnValeBairYellow card46'62'46'83'74'Motherwell 3-5-2Stuart Kettlewell242627384710309RoosDevlinGartenmannMacDonaldMacKenzieBarronShinnieMcGrathClarksonHoilettMiovskiYellow cardGoalYellow card22'81'80'88'Aberdeen 4-2-3-1Peter Leven

Motherwell substitutes

  • 46' Halliday for Nicholson
  • 46' Gent for Mugabi
  • 62' Devine for Blaney
  • 74' Ferrie for Vale
  • 83' Wells for Miller

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 22' Milne for Devlin
  • 80' Polvara for Hoilett
  • 81' Phillips for Clarkson
  • 88' Sokler for Miovski

Players

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KellyGK900.000.0000.0310
CaseyCB900.130.0500.17138
MugabiCB460.000.0000.0113
BlaneyCB620.020.0600.0974
O'Donnell RWB900.000.0300.13119
NicholsonCM460.110.0100.0413
MillerCM830.000.3420.1765
SpittalCM900.120.2960.1880
McGinnLWB900.000.1620.41106
ValeST740.100.020−0.0942
BairST900.360.010−0.0300
HallidayMF440.380.1500.2164
GentMF440.000.2300.1810
DevineDF280.000.0810.0911
FerrieFW160.090.031−0.1710
WellsMF70.000.000−0.0100

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Roos GK900.000.0000.0121
DevlinRB220.000.0210.0411
GartenmannCB900.000.0400.1369
MacDonaldCB900.000.0100.06515
MacKenzieLB900.060.0500.15145
BarronDM900.000.0300.0853
ShinnieDM900.030.2020.0148
McGrathRW900.210.2210.1972
ClarksonAM8110.190.1910.1782
Hoilett LW800.000.2420.0322
MiovskiST880.420.2810.2461
MilneDF680.090.020−0.07510
PolvaraMF100.030.0410.1111
PhillipsMF90.000.030−0.0110
SoklerFW20.140.0500.0500

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Motherwell

Kelly and Blaney: 3 passesBlaney and Mugabi: 3 passesBlaney and Spittal: 3 passesBlaney and Vale: 3 passesBlaney and Bair: 3 passesCasey and Spittal: 3 passesMugabi and O'Donnell: 3 passesO'Donnell and Nicholson: 3 passesMcGinn and Spittal: 3 passesMcGinn and Miller: 3 passesMcGinn and Vale: 3 passesMcGinn and Bair: 3 passesNicholson and Miller: 3 passesNicholson and Vale: 3 passesMiller and Vale: 3 passesKelly and Mugabi: 4 passesCasey and Mugabi: 4 passesSpittal and Miller: 4 passesSpittal and Bair: 4 passesCasey and O'Donnell: 8 passesO'Donnell and Spittal: 8 passesCasey and Miller: 9 passesBlaney and McGinn: 10 passesKelly: 8 completed passesBlaney: 16 completed passesCasey: 17 completed passesMugabi: 11 completed passesO'Donnell: 18 completed passesMcGinn: 11 completed passesNicholson: 4 completed passesSpittal: 15 completed passesMiller: 16 completed passesVale: 6 completed passesBair: 4 completed passes120155216197382814KellyBlaneyCaseyMugabiO'DonnellMcGinnNicholsonSpittalMillerValeBairStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Aberdeen

Roos and MacKenzie: 3 passesDevlin and MacDonald: 3 passesDevlin and Shinnie: 3 passesDevlin and Barron: 3 passesDevlin and McGrath: 3 passesBarron and Hoilett: 3 passesRoos and Devlin: 4 passesMacDonald and Barron: 4 passesMacDonald and Clarkson: 4 passesBarron and Clarkson: 4 passesMacKenzie and Hoilett: 5 passesRoos and Gartenmann: 6 passesRoos and MacDonald: 6 passesDevlin and Gartenmann: 7 passesGartenmann and MacDonald: 7 passesMacDonald and MacKenzie: 13 passesRoos: 12 completed passesDevlin: 14 completed passesGartenmann: 14 completed passesMacDonald: 19 completed passesMacKenzie: 11 completed passesShinnie: 4 completed passesBarron: 11 completed passesMcGrath: 3 completed passesClarkson: 9 completed passesHoilett: 5 completed passesMiovski: 3 completed passes242627348710309RoosDevlinGartenmannMacDonaldMacKenzieShinnieBarronMcGrathClarksonHoilettMiovskiStarters until 22' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Motherwell

FromToPasses
CaseyO'Donnell13
O'DonnellSpittal11
SpittalO'Donnell10
MillerCasey9
McGinnCasey8

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
MacDonaldMacKenzie14
MacKenzieHoilett11
GartenmannMacDonald9
MacKenzieMacDonald9
BarronMacKenzie8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Motherwell

2−2.58+0.517−0.16−2.03−3.05−2.070.05−2.39+1.46+0.63−2.27+3.26+0.76−1.75−0.15+1.43+0.21−2.03−1.54+2.10−1.80−1.00−1.40−2.610.00−0.53+2.30−0.51+0.43−4.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 29 matches

Aberdeen

3−2.06−2.127+11.29+1.36+1.77−0.53−3.210+4.06−2.78−0.63−3.00−5.54+0.34−1.06−0.26+1.56+2.92+0.13−0.70−5.01−1.51−1.03+2.21−0.72−0.50−1.12+1.51+0.71+0.80−0.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 29 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Motherwell

0.030.050.020.010.030.020.040.050.040.010.030.060.080.03−0.010.060.110.010.19−0.010.07−0.280.150.280.32LessMore

Aberdeen

0.010.010.020.020.010.020.030.030.090.040.030.020.050.050.020.040.060.040.060.03−0.04−0.100.030.100.200.150.19LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackMotherwell1.18 → 1.17Aberdeen1.14 → 1.15Defence (lower is better)Motherwell1.39 → 1.39Aberdeen1.46 → 1.44

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Motherwell
Top six23%10%−13
11th<1%1%+1
Aberdeen
Top six<1%1%+1
11th9%4%−5
Bottom1%<1%−1
Hibernian
Top six39%47%+8
Dundee FC
Top six39%43%+4

From the forecast before the match (16 March 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

MotherwellAberdeen
Expected goals1.581.10
Win48%26%
Expected Points1.701.04
Clean sheet33%21%

Motherwell 48%Draw 26%Aberdeen 26%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

Aberdeen goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+7%7%4%2%7%2%9%5%2%4%5%3%1%2%2%1%10%13%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 16 March 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowMotherwell winDrawAberdeen win
Motherwell
Top six23%33%17%10%
11th<1%<1%<1%1%
Aberdeen
Top six<1%––1%
11th9%12%8%4%
Bottom1%1%1%<1%
Hibernian
Top six39%34%42%47%
Dundee FC
Top six39%35%42%43%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Motherwell

  1. W2–12 MarRangers (A)xG 0.83–3.40
  2. W3–128 FebLivingston (A)xG 1.25–0.92
  3. L1–325 FebCeltic (H)xG 0.69–2.87
  4. L0–217 FebHearts (A)xG 0.46–1.71
  5. D3–314 FebAberdeen (A)xG 2.56–1.44
  6. W5–06 FebRoss County (H)xG 2.91–1.05

Aberdeen

  1. L0–113 MarDundee FC (A)xG 0.66–1.92
  2. L1–22 MarSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.98–2.01
  3. L0–228 FebSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.17–1.69
  4. L0–224 FebKilmarnock (A)xG 0.48–1.94
  5. D2–217 FebHibernian (H)xG 2.93–1.46
  6. D3–314 FebMotherwell (H)xG 1.44–2.56

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

MotherwellAberdeen
Position8th10th
Played2929
Won, drawn, lost7–⁠11–⁠116–⁠9–⁠14
Points32 (1.10 per game)27 (0.93 per game)
Expected Points per game1.181.19
Goals41–⁠4632–⁠48
xG per game1.18–⁠1.531.33–⁠1.67
Home: points, xG per game1.14, 1.31–⁠1.411.07, 1.56–⁠1.54
Away: points, xG per game1.07, 1.07–⁠1.630.80, 1.12–⁠1.79
ManagerStuart Kettlewell (43)Peter Leven (1)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackMotherwell1.18, 6thAberdeen1.14, 8thDefence (lower is better)Motherwell1.39, 7thAberdeen1.46, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarMotherwell attack: 1.18Aberdeen attack: 1.141.181.14AberdeenMotherwellDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarMotherwell defence: 1.39Aberdeen defence: 1.461.461.39

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

MotherwellAberdeen
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−11%+20%−13%+22%
Counter-attacks+24%−21%+67%−9%
Set pieces−27%+10%+22%+12%
Penalties−15%+1%−32%+69%
Headers−10%+47%−3%+22%
Left side−23%+33%−5%+15%
Centre+4%+7%+17%+21%
Right side−33%+8%−18%+10%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdAberdeen concededLeft side−23%+10%Centre+4%+21%Right side−33%+15%Open play−11%+22%Counter-attacks+24%−9%Set pieces−27%+12%Headers−10%+22%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdMotherwell concededLeft side−5%+8%Centre+17%+7%Right side−18%+33%Open play−13%+20%Counter-attacks+67%−21%Set pieces+22%+10%Headers−3%+47%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

MotherwellAberdeen

1.18xG1.33
1.53xG against1.67
44%Possession47%
10.9Shots11.9
14.2Shots against13.4
3.9Shots on target4.0
2.0Big chances1.6
19.1Touches in the opposition box22.9
342Passes354
65%Pass accuracy66%
4.3Corners4.5
43%Field tilt44%
30.4Final-third entries30.2
9.4Box entries10.2
16.2Passes per defensive action14.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level460.951.39
Ahead161.242.12
Behind281.531.43

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.011.47
Ahead181.631.69
Behind261.682.01

xG by period

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.135–6
16–300.160.226–10
31–450.220.236–4
46–600.110.332–8
61–750.230.277–8
76–900.320.3515–10

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.120.243–7
16–300.160.355–7
31–450.300.209–3
46–600.230.216–4
61–750.240.265–9
76–900.280.414–18

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Motherwell

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTKelly 29McGinn 18O'Donnell 5Mugabi 25Butcher 7Casey 20Blaney 12O'Donnell 19Spencer 5Devine 3Spittal 12Paton 10Butcher 1Miller 11Zdravkovski 8Spencer 6Gent 7Slattery 7Spencer 5Bair 9Slattery 9Paton 8Spittal 13Zdravkovski 4Biereth 3Bair 13Biereth 6Wilkinson 33-4-2-1 in 8 of 29 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (8), 3-4-3 (6), 3-5-2 (5), 3-1-4-2 (3), 5-4-1 (2), 3-5-1-1 (2), 5-3-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1)

Aberdeen

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTRoos 29Gartenmann 24Devlin 5Polvara 5Rubezic 16MacDonald 8Jensen 21MacKenzie 4Devlin 23Milne 3Morris 3Barron 14Clarkson 12McGrath 3Shinnie 27MacKenzie 13McGarry 6Hayes 5McGrath 10Clarkson 8Polvara 6Miovski 28Sokler 4Duk 13McGrath 7Hoilett 23-4-1-2 in 10 of 29 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (10), 4-2-3-1 (7), 3-5-2 (3), 5-4-1 (3), 3-4-2-1 (2), 5-3-2 (2), 4-3-3 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
14 February 2024Aberdeen3–3MotherwellxG 1.44–2.56
1 November 2023Motherwell2–4AberdeenxG 1.44–2.24
4 February 2023Aberdeen3–1MotherwellxG 1.94–0.85
22 October 2022Motherwell1–2AberdeenxG 0.71–1.11
13 August 2022Aberdeen2–3MotherwellxG 1.27–2.72
19 February 2022Motherwell1–1AberdeenxG 2.62–1.23

11 league meetings since 2020/21: Motherwell won 4, Aberdeen won 4, and 3 were drawn. Goals 18–17 and xG 1.34–1.52 per game.

Key players

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Biereth111,022650.360.22
Bair221,8411140.390.10
Spittal282,520790.170.24
Wilkinson7648310.160.12

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miovski292,5161320.440.10
Sokler4537010.420.06
Duk141,355440.270.14
McGrath231,946710.270.11

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.