Wednesday 15 February 2023, 19:45 · Fir Park · Round 17 · Half-time 2–1 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 5,252
Motherwell van Veen 8', Johnston 19'
St. Mirren Strain 24'
Post-match
Result and Expected Points
Measure
Motherwell
St. Mirren
Goals
2
1
xG
0.48
0.46
Expected Points
1.26
1.22
Motherwell 25%Draw 51%St. Mirren 24%
Most likely score 0–0, 40%. Final score 2–1, 2%.
Own goals have no xG.
xG race
Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.
Match stats
MotherwellSt. Mirren
0.48 −0.73xG0.46 −0.61
0.86 −0.17xG on target0.76 −0.20
7 −4Shots10 −2
4 +0.9Shots on target4 +0.9
0 −1.6Big chances1 −0.6
16 0Touches in the opposition box21 +2
43% −6Possession57% +20
309 −56Passes416 +145
50% −18Pass accuracy64% +2
42% −9Field tilt58% +20
27 −8Final-third entries34 +2
8 −0.3Box entries9 −0.2
14.6 +2Passes per defensive action8.5 −9
3 −2.1Corners2 −3.8
20 +4Tackles12 −4
7 −2.5Interceptions6 −3.6
16 −2Clearances18 −4
3 +0.5Saves2 −0.3
7 −7Fouls20 +6
2 +0.2Offsides0 −1.2
The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.
Chance locations
Motherwell
St. Mirren
Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.
xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.
Game state
8'19'24'
0–01–02–1
0'HTFT
Level
8 min (9%) · Motherwell 0.18, St. Mirren 0.00 xG
Motherwell ahead
84 min (91%) · Motherwell 0.30, St. Mirren 0.46 xG
Line-ups
Motherwell substitutes
79'Aitchison for van Veen
84'Slattery for Spittal
90+2'O'Donnell for Furlong
St. Mirren substitutes
31'Small for Tanser · yellow card 90+1'
57'Kiltie for Gogic · yellow card 62'
79'Flynn for Strain
79'Jamieson for Watt
Players
Motherwell
Player
Pos
Min
G
A
xG
xA
KP
xT
Prog
Def
Kelly
GK
90
0.00
0.00
0
0.04
4
0
McGinn
CB
90
0.00
0.00
0
0.02
2
12
Butcher
CB
90
0.00
0.00
0
0.03
5
4
Casey
CB
90
0.07
0.00
0
0.01
0
7
Johnston
RWB
90
1
0.02
0.12
1
0.17
6
6
Goss
CM
90
1
0.00
0.03
1
0.07
7
4
Cornelius
CM
90
0.00
0.01
0
0.00
0
2
Furlong
LWB
90
0.04
0.12
0
0.19
2
2
Spittal
AM
84
1
0.04
0.09
2
0.02
6
3
van Veen
ST
79
1
0.23
0.06
1
0.09
3
1
Obika
ST
90
0.00
0.06
2
−0.05
1
3
Aitchison
MF
11
0.07
0.00
0
0.03
1
0
Slattery
MF
6
0.00
0.00
0
−0.01
0
2
O'Donnell
DF
0
0.00
0.00
0
0.00
0
0
St. Mirren
Player
Pos
Min
G
A
xG
xA
KP
xT
Prog
Def
Carson
GK
90
0.00
0.00
0
0.04
4
1
Fraser
CB
90
0.00
0.33
0
0.12
4
5
Gallagher
CB
90
0.00
0.01
0
0.07
8
5
R. Taylor
CB
90
0.02
0.03
0
0.13
11
14
Strain
RWB
79
1
0.22
0.06
3
0.02
1
2
Baccus
CM
90
1
0.00
0.03
1
0.06
7
1
Gogic
CM
57
0.00
0.01
0
0.00
1
1
O'Hara
CM
90
0.04
0.02
0
−0.01
0
2
Tanser
LWB
31
0.00
0.00
1
−0.01
1
1
Main
ST
90
0.06
0.03
0
0.01
2
0
Watt
ST
79
0.02
0.10
2
0.08
1
1
Small
FW
59
0.10
0.01
1
0.01
3
3
Kiltie
FW
33
0.00
0.00
0
0.01
1
0
Flynn
MF
11
0.00
0.00
0
0.00
0
0
Jamieson
FW
11
0.00
0.15
0
0.05
0
0
Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.
Pass networks
Motherwell
St. Mirren
Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.
Passing combinations
Motherwell
From
To
Passes
Goss
Johnston
10
Johnston
Goss
7
Furlong
Goss
7
Goss
Furlong
6
Goss
Cornelius
6
St. Mirren
From
To
Passes
R. Taylor
Main
10
Strain
Baccus
9
Fraser
Baccus
8
Baccus
Strain
8
Fraser
Strain
8
The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.
Defensive actions
Motherwell
Against its average of 24 matches
St. Mirren
Against its average of 24 matches
Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.
Threat
Motherwell
St. Mirren
Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.
Ratings
The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.
League probabilities
Chance
Before
With this result
Change
Motherwell
11th
23%
20%
−3
Bottom
22%
13%
−9
St. Mirren
Top six
66%
56%
−10
11th
<1%
1%
+1
Aberdeen
Top six
44%
49%
+5
Ross County
11th
25%
24%
−1
Bottom
38%
42%
+4
From the forecast before the match (15 February 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.
Pre-match
As things stood before kick-off.
Forecast
Measure
Motherwell
St. Mirren
Expected goals
1.28
1.03
Win
41%
29%
Expected Points
1.54
1.17
Clean sheet
36%
28%
Motherwell 41%Draw 29%St. Mirren 29%
Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 47%.
From the forecast as it stood on 15 February 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.
League probabilities by result
Chance
Now
Motherwell win
Draw
St. Mirren win
Motherwell
11th
23%
20%
25%
26%
Bottom
22%
13%
24%
30%
St. Mirren
Top six
66%
56%
64%
82%
11th
<1%
1%
<1%
<1%
Aberdeen
Top six
44%
49%
46%
36%
Ross County
11th
25%
24%
26%
27%
Bottom
38%
42%
36%
34%
Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.
The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.
Season to date
Measure
Motherwell
St. Mirren
Position
11th
6th
Played
24
24
Won, drawn, lost
5–5–14
9–6–9
Points
20 (0.83 per game)
33 (1.38 per game)
Expected Points per game
1.21
1.14
Goals
27–38
26–33
xG per game
1.21–1.40
1.07–1.36
Home: points, xG per game
0.55, 1.24–1.04
1.92, 1.11–0.99
Away: points, xG per game
1.08, 1.19–1.70
0.73, 1.02–1.80
Manager
Stuart Kettlewell (0)
Stephen Robinson (17)
League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.
Ratings
This season
The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.
Strengths and weaknesses
Chances
Motherwell
St. Mirren
Created
Conceded
Created
Conceded
Open play
−17%
+16%
−27%
−9%
Counter-attacks
+21%
+26%
−8%
−9%
Set pieces
−4%
average
+6%
−4%
Penalties
+28%
−36%
−15%
+91%
Headers
−18%
+21%
+17%
−1%
Left side
+2%
−4%
−14%
+4%
Centre
−15%
+31%
−24%
−9%
Right side
−18%
average
−14%
−19%
xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.
St. Mirren createdMotherwell concededBelow averageAboveBelow averageAboveLeft side−14%averageCentre−24%+31%Right side−14%−4%Open play−27%+16%Counter-attacks−8%+26%Set pieces+6%averageHeaders+17%+21%
Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.
Season averages
MotherwellSt. Mirren
1.21xG1.07
1.40xG against1.36
50%Possession37%
11.5Shots11.7
11.8Shots against11.9
3.1Shots on target3.1
1.6Big chances1.6
16.2Touches in the opposition box18.8
365Passes271
68%Pass accuracy62%
5.1Corners5.8
50%Field tilt38%
35.0Final-third entries31.9
8.3Box entries9.2
12.8Passes per defensive action17.1
Per league match this season before kick-off.
Game state this season
Motherwell
State
Minutes per game
xG per 90
xG against per 90
Level
40
1.26
1.70
Ahead
16
1.20
1.07
Behind
34
1.16
1.19
St. Mirren
State
Minutes per game
xG per 90
xG against per 90
Level
47
1.02
1.22
Ahead
21
1.24
1.32
Behind
22
1.01
1.68
xG by period
Motherwell
Minutes
xG per game
xG against
Goals
1–15
0.08
0.26
1–5
16–30
0.16
0.26
4–5
31–45
0.23
0.23
4–5
46–60
0.22
0.21
8–6
61–75
0.29
0.20
4–11
76–90
0.24
0.23
6–6
St. Mirren
Minutes
xG per game
xG against
Goals
1–15
0.09
0.18
3–4
16–30
0.12
0.19
1–4
31–45
0.22
0.27
6–6
46–60
0.21
0.21
7–6
61–75
0.18
0.20
2–5
76–90
0.24
0.30
7–8
Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.
This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.
Digressive Celts