Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Kilmarnock 3–3 St. Mirren

Wednesday 12 May 2021, 19:45 · Rugby Park · Round 37 · Half-time 1–0

Kilmarnock Lafferty 8', 62', Kiltie 81'

St. Mirren McGrath 63', MacPherson 78', Quaner 83'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
Goals33
xG1.331.21
Expected Points1.391.28

Kilmarnock 35%Draw 33%St. Mirren 32%

Most likely score 1–1, 21%. Final score 3–3, 1%.

St. Mirren goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+4%12%6%1%6%9%2%4%13%7%1%2%5%2%1%21%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTHaunstrup on for Waters, 84'Whitehall on for Kiltie, 90+4'Connolly on for Durmus, 46'MacPherson on for Doyle-Hayes, Quaner on for Obika, and Dennis on for Erwin, 66'McAllister on for Finlayson, 82'Lafferty 8'Lafferty 62'Kiltie 81'McGrath 63'MacPherson 78'Quaner 83'Kilmarnock 1.33St. Mirren 1.2100.511.50153045607590HTHaunstrup on for Waters, 84'Whitehall on for Kiltie, 90+4'Connolly on for Durmus, 46'MacPherson on for Doyle-Hayes, Quaner on for Obika, and Dennis on for Erwin, 66'McAllister on for Finlayson, 82'Lafferty 8'Lafferty 62'Kiltie 81'McGrath 63'MacPherson 78'Quaner 83'1.331.21KilmarnockSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockSt. Mirren

1.33 +0.28xG1.21 +0.13
0.89 −0.09xG on target1.44 +0.46
19 +8Shots11 −1
8 +4.8Shots on target3 −0.5
1 0.0Big chances2 +0.9
41% −6Possession59% +12
321 −44Passes474 +112
69% +1Pass accuracy78% +12
55% +4Field tilt45% +1
52 +15Final-third entries54 +20
24 +13.8Box entries11 +3.0
20.2 +6Passes per defensive action11.7 −3
8 +2.9Corners5 0.0
20 +7Tackles15 +2
10 −1Interceptions9 −2
19 +3Clearances26 +6
0 −2.4Saves5 +2.0
7 −6Fouls14 +3
1 −1.1Offsides0 −1.9

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Burke 90+3', 0.34 xGBroadfoot 87', 0.12 xGLafferty 90+4', 0.08 xGPinnock 34', 0.07 xGBurke 52', 0.06 xGLafferty 74', 0.06 xGBurke 90+1', 0.06 xGBurke 34', 0.05 xGBurke 75', 0.05 xGPinnock 83', 0.05 xGKiltie 87', 0.05 xGBroadfoot 89', 0.05 xGPinnock 90+1', 0.05 xGLafferty 23', 0.03 xGBurke 56', 0.03 xGPower 47', 0.02 xGLafferty 61', 0.08 xG, goalLafferty 8', 0.05 xG, goalKiltie 81', 0.04 xG, goal6%0.08 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.08 xG, 0 goals69%0.92 xGCentral box: 10 shots, 0.92 xG, 3 goals19%0.25 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.25 xG, 0 goals6%0.08 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Obika 15', 0.08 xGMcGrath 63', 0.07 xGMcGrath 24', 0.05 xGObika 66', 0.04 xGFraser 2', 0.03 xGErwin 7', 0.03 xGErwin 31', 0.03 xGMcGrath 45', 0.03 xGQuaner 83', 0.74 xG, goalMcGrath 63', 0.08 xG, goalMacPherson 78', 0.04 xG, goal61%0.74 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.74 xG, 1 goal19%0.23 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.23 xG, 1 goal3%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals15%0.18 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.18 xG, 1 goal2%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockSt. Mirren

1.14 15 shots, 1 goalOpen play1.22 11 shots, 3 goals
0.20 4 shots, 2 goalsSet pieces0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
22 min (23%) · Kilmarnock 0.89, St. Mirren 0.06 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
72 min (77%) · Kilmarnock 0.44, St. Mirren 1.16 xG

Line-ups

2322514182968192810RogersMillenBroadfootRossiWatersBurkePowerDickerPinnockLaffertyKiltieYellow cardGoalGoalYellow cardGoal84'90+4'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Tommy Wright12215530781117923AlnwickFraserFinlaysonMcCarthyHendersonDoyle-HayesFlynnDurmusMcGrathObikaErwinYellow cardGoal82'66'46'66'66'St. Mirren 3-4-1-2Jim Goodwin

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 84' Haunstrup for Waters
  • 90+4' Whitehall for Kiltie

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 46' Connolly for Durmus · 1 assist
  • 66' MacPherson for Doyle-Hayes · goal 78'
  • 66' Quaner for Obika · goal 83'
  • 66' Dennis for Erwin
  • 82' McAllister for Finlayson

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RogersGK900.000.0000.0122
MillenRB900.000.2310.43164
BroadfootCB900.170.0100.05511
RossiCB900.000.0000.0108
WatersLB8410.000.2120.1556
BurkeRM9010.580.3520.32131
Power CM900.020.0520.0796
DickerCM900.000.0500.1197
PinnockLM900.170.3940.39103
Lafferty ST9020.300.0110.0632
KiltieST9010.100.1030.0261
HaunstrupDF60.000.0610.0820
WhitehallFW00.000.000––0

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
AlnwickGK900.000.0000.0320
FraserCB900.030.0410.1596
Finlayson CB820.000.0600.15412
McCarthyCB900.000.0220.10610
HendersonRWB9010.000.0110.0484
Doyle-HayesCM660.000.0200.0542
FlynnCM900.000.0510.0654
DurmusLWB460.000.0400.0644
McGrathAM9010.230.1100.1041
ObikaST660.120.031−0.0511
ErwinST660.060.010−0.0520
ConnollyFW4410.000.5620.3453
MacPhersonMF2410.040.0300.0772
QuanerFW2410.740.000−0.0103
DennisFW240.000.0200.0320
McAllisterMF80.000.000−0.0100

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Broadfoot and Power: 4 passesBurke and Dicker: 4 passesBurke and Pinnock: 4 passesBroadfoot and Dicker: 5 passesBroadfoot and Lafferty: 5 passesWaters and Lafferty: 5 passesDicker and Kiltie: 5 passesWaters and Dicker: 6 passesBurke and Power: 6 passesBurke and Lafferty: 6 passesDicker and Power: 6 passesPower and Kiltie: 6 passesKiltie and Lafferty: 6 passesRogers and Lafferty: 7 passesPinnock and Kiltie: 7 passesMillen and Broadfoot: 8 passesBurke and Kiltie: 8 passesDicker and Pinnock: 9 passesWaters and Pinnock: 10 passesMillen and Kiltie: 14 passesMillen and Power: 17 passesMillen and Burke: 21 passesRogers: 10 completed passesMillen: 38 completed passesBroadfoot: 20 completed passesRossi: 7 completed passesWaters: 17 completed passesBurke: 20 completed passesDicker: 25 completed passesPower: 27 completed passesPinnock: 20 completed passesKiltie: 22 completed passesLafferty: 9 completed passes2322514182986191028RogersMillenBroadfootRossiWatersBurkeDickerPowerPinnockKiltieLaffertyStarters until 84' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

St. Mirren

Fraser and Flynn: 4 passesHenderson and McGrath: 4 passesHenderson and Erwin: 4 passesObika and Erwin: 4 passesMcCarthy and Henderson: 5 passesMcCarthy and McGrath: 5 passesHenderson and Doyle-Hayes: 5 passesDoyle-Hayes and Flynn: 5 passesDoyle-Hayes and Durmus: 5 passesDoyle-Hayes and McGrath: 5 passesFlynn and Durmus: 5 passesFlynn and McGrath: 5 passesFraser and Finlayson: 6 passesFraser and McGrath: 7 passesDurmus and McGrath: 8 passesMcCarthy and Doyle-Hayes: 9 passesMcCarthy and Finlayson: 10 passesFraser and Henderson: 10 passesMcCarthy and Flynn: 12 passesMcCarthy and Durmus: 12 passesFraser and Doyle-Hayes: 13 passesAlnwick: 8 completed passesMcCarthy: 32 completed passesFraser: 23 completed passesFinlayson: 16 completed passesHenderson: 15 completed passesDoyle-Hayes: 26 completed passesFlynn: 19 completed passesDurmus: 21 completed passesMcGrath: 17 completed passesObika: 6 completed passesErwin: 9 completed passes15221530781117923AlnwickMcCarthyFraserFinlaysonHendersonDoyle-HayesFlynnDurmusMcGrathObikaErwinStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
MillenBurke14
BurkeMillen11
PowerMillen10
MillenPower8
MillenKiltie8

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
FraserMcGrath15
McCarthyFlynn10
FlynnMcCarthy10
FlynnFraser10
FraserDoyle-Hayes9

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

7+3.59+3.616+3.52−5.14−2.23−3.47+0.313+6.910+1.07−0.91−3.32−3.56+2.07+1.92−3.43−0.64+0.24+1.41−2.64−0.52−0.41−0.91−0.62+0.42−0.44+3.12+1.71+0.11+0.60−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 36 matches

St. Mirren

4−1.02−3.423+9.511+4.67+1.47−0.85−3.05−2.510+1.87+0.14−0.94−2.23−1.24−1.38+2.20−4.23−0.54+1.43−0.53−1.41−1.22+0.65+3.81−0.60−2.20−1.02+1.81+0.20−0.41+0.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 36 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.010.010.020.040.010.020.020.010.010.010.130.060.050.070.040.160.090.040.120.160.120.120.35LessMore

St. Mirren

0.010.020.010.020.010.020.010.030.120.060.030.060.010.080.090.040.040.030.06−0.060.09−0.010.060.07−0.06−0.020.010.24LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.16AttackKilmarnock0.98 → 1.02St. Mirren0.96 → 1.00Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.27 → 1.31St. Mirren1.18 → 1.23

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
11th43%47%+4
Bottom17%14%−3
Hamilton Academical
11th20%18%−2
Bottom65%69%+4
Ross County
11th37%35%−2
Bottom17%17%0

From the forecast before the match (12 May 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.091.01
Win36%32%
Expected Points1.401.29
Clean sheet36%34%

Kilmarnock 36%Draw 31%St. Mirren 32%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 43%.

St. Mirren goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+6%2%7%2%7%7%4%1%3%3%1%13%12%13%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 12 May 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawSt. Mirren win
Kilmarnock
11th43%36%47%46%
Bottom17%3%14%37%
Hamilton Academical
11th20%16%18%26%
Bottom65%74%69%53%
Ross County
11th37%47%35%28%
Bottom17%24%17%10%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–21 MayMotherwell (A)xG 0.93–1.00
  2. W3–021 AprDundee United (H)xG 2.29–1.15
  3. D2–210 AprRoss County (H)xG 0.69–1.07
  4. W4–120 MarMotherwell (H)xG 1.86–1.33
  5. L2–36 MarRoss County (A)xG 1.67–1.21
  6. D1–127 FebDundee United (H)xG 1.25–1.02

St. Mirren

  1. L1–21 MayHamilton Academical (H)xG 0.68–1.23
  2. W3–121 AprRoss County (A)xG 2.23–0.65
  3. L0–110 AprMotherwell (A)xG 1.45–1.95
  4. D1–120 MarHamilton Academical (A)xG 1.81–0.79
  5. L0–36 MarRangers (A)xG 0.21–1.50
  6. W1–027 FebRoss County (H)xG 1.41–1.91

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
Position11th8th
Played3636
Won, drawn, lost9–⁠5–⁠2211–⁠10–⁠15
Points32 (0.89 per game)43 (1.19 per game)
Expected Points per game1.191.23
Goals38–⁠5134–⁠42
xG per game1.05–⁠1.311.08–⁠1.25
Home: points, xG per game1.22, 1.26–⁠1.311.06, 1.06–⁠1.21
Away: points, xG per game0.56, 0.84–⁠1.301.33, 1.10–⁠1.28
ManagerTommy Wright (8)Jim Goodwin (36)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.16AttackKilmarnock0.98, 8thSt. Mirren0.96, 10thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.27, 8thSt. Mirren1.18, 6th

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayKilmarnock attack: 0.98St. Mirren attack: 0.960.980.96St. MirrenKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayKilmarnock defence: 1.27St. Mirren defence: 1.181.271.18

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−26%+1%−28%+10%
Counter-attacks−85%−28%−3%−65%
Set pieces−2%+20%−4%−9%
Penalties+14%−19%+30%−35%
Headers−10%+2%−29%+4%
Left side−18%+11%−10%−3%
Centre−29%average−21%+1%
Right side−12%+8%−29%+9%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−18%+9%Centre−29%+1%Right side−12%−3%Open play−26%+10%Counter-attacks−85%−65%Set pieces−2%−9%Headers−10%+4%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−10%+8%Centre−21%averageRight side−29%+11%Open play−28%+1%Counter-attacks−3%−28%Set pieces−4%+20%Headers−29%+2%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockSt. Mirren

1.05xG1.08
1.31xG against1.25
47%Possession48%
10.8Shots11.9
13.0Shots against12.2
3.2Shots on target3.5
1.0Big chances1.1
19.7Touches in the opposition box17.8
365Passes362
68%Pass accuracy67%
5.1Corners5.0
50%Field tilt44%
36.7Final-third entries33.7
10.2Box entries8.0
14.2Passes per defensive action14.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level420.961.10
Ahead201.141.69
Behind281.131.34

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.081.19
Ahead171.421.24
Behind290.881.33

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.166–6
16–300.130.206–9
31–450.230.179–5
46–600.200.207–11
61–750.210.255–8
76–900.180.335–12

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.143–4
16–300.140.224–12
31–450.260.158–6
46–600.110.254–7
61–750.130.245–8
76–900.300.2410–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTRogers 25Doyle 10Eastwood 1Millen 16McGowan 15Rossi 4Broadfoot 29Dikamona 9Dicker 1Findlay 21Medley 7Rossi 5Haunstrup 19Waters 16Brophy 1Burke 25McKenzie 5Kiltie 2Power 22McKenzie 2Dabo 1Dicker 21Tshibola 20Mulumbu 4Pinnock 12McKenzie 11Kiltie 9Kabamba 21Lafferty 6Brophy 6Kiltie 10Power 7McKenzie 54-4-2 in 12 of 36 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (12), 4-3-3 (11), 4-4-1-1 (5), 4-2-3-1 (4), 4-5-1 (2), 4-1-4-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMCMLMSTAlnwick 32Zlamal 3Lyness 1Fraser 26Tait 6Connolly 3McCarthy 35Shaughnessy 32Foley 3Tait 1Tait 20Durmus 8Obika 3Connolly 9McAllister 8McGrath 4McGrath 22MacPher… 10MacPhersonSheron 6Doyle-Ha… 19Doyle-HayesFraser 3Dennis 2Erhahon 26Foley 7McAllister 2Durmus 12Mason 5McGrath 4Obika 13Erwin 12Dennis 44-5-1 in 8 of 36 starts

Formations: 4-5-1 (8), 4-4-2 (5), 4-1-4-1 (4), 3-5-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (3), 3-4-2-1 (3), 3-5-1-1 (3), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-3-1-2 (2), 4-3-3 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
6 February 2021St. Mirren2–0KilmarnockxG 1.56–0.49
2 January 2021Kilmarnock1–1St. MirrenxG 0.97–0.52
26 September 2020St. Mirren0–1KilmarnockxG 0.49–0.65

3 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 1, St. Mirren won 1, and 1 was a draw. Goals 2–3 and xG 0.70–0.86 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Lafferty6566620.550.05
Whitehall5465200.400.04
Burke262,331930.220.20
Brophy8637200.320.02

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Dennis6536310.480.09
McGrath322,660910.300.14
Morias7664000.250.09
Obika201,961510.290.05

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.