Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

St. Mirren 0–0 Kilmarnock

Saturday 15 October 2022, 15:00 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 11 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Chris Graham · Attendance 6,785

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenKilmarnock
Goals00
xG0.681.13
Expected Points0.941.72

St. Mirren 20%Draw 34%Kilmarnock 46%

Most likely score 0–1, 19%. Final score 0–0, 15%.

Kilmarnock goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+11%3%10%8%2%3%5%3%15%19%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTGogic on for Erhahon and Greive on for Ayunga, 69'Brophy on for Main, 79'Tait on for Tanser and Kiltie on for Baccus, 86'Lyons on for Alston and Chrisene on for Alebiosu, 62'Doidge on for Lafferty, 70'Mayo on for Taylor and Cameron on for McKenzie, 78'Kilmarnock 1.13St. Mirren 0.6800.511.50153045607590HTGogic on for Erhahon and Greive on for Ayunga, 69'Brophy on for Main, 79'Tait on for Tanser and Kiltie on for Baccus, 86'Lyons on for Alston and Chrisene on for Alebiosu, 62'Doidge on for Lafferty, 70'Mayo on for Taylor and Cameron on for McKenzie, 78'1.130.68St. MirrenKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenKilmarnock

0.68 −0.38xG1.13 +0.29
0.17 −0.93xG on target0.46 −0.17
14 +4Shots14 +3
3 +0.1Shots on target4 +1.3
0 −2.1Big chances2 +0.9
11 −2Touches in the opposition box14 −3
48% +12Possession52% +9
319 +64Passes355 +39
67% +7Pass accuracy69% +2
47% +11Field tilt53% +11
36 +7Final-third entries35 +4
5 −4.7Box entries10 +1.2
9.7 −9Passes per defensive action14.1 −1
6 −0.1Corners8 +3.3
22 +8Tackles13 −4
9 +0.2Interceptions5 −7.4
21 −2Clearances20 +2
4 +1.4Saves3 −0.8
20 +7Fouls12 −2
0 −1.6Offsides3 +0.9

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Ayunga 40', 0.17 xGAyunga 8', 0.10 xGTanser 56', 0.07 xGGallagher 88', 0.06 xGMain 45+1', 0.05 xGBaccus 9', 0.04 xGStrain 34', 0.03 xGMain 64', 0.03 xGBrophy 80', 0.03 xGO'Hara 82', 0.03 xGMain 25', 0.02 xGO'Hara 66', 0.02 xGGallagher 85', 0.02 xGTanser 47', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals45%0.31 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.31 xG, 0 goals19%0.13 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals26%0.18 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals10%0.07 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

McKenzie 65', 0.37 xGLafferty 46', 0.19 xGStokes 58', 0.11 xGTaylor 2', 0.10 xGJones 65', 0.10 xGDoidge 90+1', 0.08 xGTaylor 45', 0.03 xGTaylor 63', 0.03 xGArmstrong 76', 0.03 xGAlebiosu 21', 0.02 xGAlston 29', 0.02 xGAlebiosu 1', 0.01 xGAlston 46', 0.01 xGArmstrong 53', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals64%0.72 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.72 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals32%0.36 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.36 xG, 0 goals4%0.04 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenKilmarnock

0.50 10 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.83 9 shots, 0 goals
0.19 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.30 5 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
93 min (100%) · St. Mirren 0.68, Kilmarnock 1.13 xG

Line-ups

123223118317166107CarsonStrainFraserGallagherDunneTanserBaccusErhahonO'HaraMainAyungaYellow cardYellow card86'86'69'79'69'St. Mirren 5-3-2Stephen Robinson1519625841011728HemmingTaylorWrightStokesAlebiosuAlstonPowerJonesArmstrongMcKenzieLaffertyYellow cardYellow card78'62'62'78'70'Kilmarnock 3-4-2-1Derek McInnes

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 69' Gogic for Erhahon · yellow card 75'
  • 69' Greive for Ayunga
  • 79' Brophy for Main
  • 86' Tait for Tanser
  • 86' Kiltie for Baccus

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 62' Chrisene for Alebiosu
  • 62' Lyons for Alston
  • 70' Doidge for Lafferty
  • 78' Mayo for Taylor
  • 78' Cameron for McKenzie

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
CarsonGK900.000.0000.0431
StrainRWB900.030.1420.0648
Fraser CB900.000.0300.1266
GallagherCB900.080.0200.0663
Dunne CB900.000.0100.0647
TanserLWB860.080.1030.2947
BaccusCM860.040.0510.0425
ErhahonCM690.000.0000.0217
O'HaraCM900.050.031−0.0214
MainST790.100.012−0.0713
AyungaST690.270.0110.0212
Gogic DF210.000.0000.0010
GreiveFW210.000.000−0.0100
BrophyFW110.030.000−0.0101
TaitDF40.000.0000.0001
KiltieFW40.000.000––0

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HemmingGK900.000.0100.0422
TaylorCB780.160.0000.0457
Wright CB900.000.0400.1048
StokesCB900.110.1000.0655
AlebiosuRWB620.040.0200.0871
AlstonCM620.030.1700.1910
PowerCM900.000.0610.0417
JonesLWB900.100.1920.1260
Armstrong AM900.050.4840.35102
McKenzieAM780.370.011−0.0103
LaffertyST700.190.0000.0100
ChriseneDF280.000.0000.0211
LyonsMF280.000.0000.0323
DoidgeFW200.080.0000.0000
MayoDF120.000.0000.0000
CameronFW120.000.000−0.0102

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Carson and Tanser: 3 passesStrain and Ayunga: 3 passesStrain and Main: 3 passesDunne and Fraser: 3 passesDunne and Baccus: 3 passesDunne and O'Hara: 3 passesCarson and Fraser: 4 passesBaccus and Erhahon: 4 passesBaccus and Main: 4 passesO'Hara and Main: 4 passesFraser and Ayunga: 5 passesTanser and Erhahon: 5 passesStrain and Erhahon: 6 passesFraser and Erhahon: 6 passesTanser and Main: 6 passesFraser and Baccus: 7 passesBaccus and Ayunga: 7 passesErhahon and O'Hara: 7 passesFraser and Gallagher: 8 passesDunne and Gallagher: 9 passesDunne and Tanser: 10 passesTanser and O'Hara: 11 passesStrain and Baccus: 12 passesStrain and Fraser: 13 passesCarson: 12 completed passesStrain: 20 completed passesDunne: 14 completed passesFraser: 31 completed passesGallagher: 16 completed passesTanser: 17 completed passesBaccus: 22 completed passesErhahon: 17 completed passesO'Hara: 17 completed passesAyunga: 5 completed passesMain: 10 completed passes123182231317166710CarsonStrainDunneFraserGallagherTanserBaccusErhahonO'HaraAyungaMainStarters until 69' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Kilmarnock

Hemming and Lafferty: 3 passesWright and Jones: 3 passesStokes and Taylor: 3 passesStokes and Power: 3 passesStokes and Armstrong: 3 passesAlebiosu and Jones: 3 passesJones and Armstrong: 3 passesWright and Armstrong: 4 passesJones and McKenzie: 4 passesTaylor and Armstrong: 5 passesJones and Power: 5 passesHemming and Stokes: 6 passesHemming and Taylor: 6 passesHemming and Wright: 7 passesAlebiosu and Alston: 7 passesAlston and Armstrong: 7 passesWright and Taylor: 8 passesTaylor and Power: 8 passesPower and Armstrong: 8 passesMcKenzie and Armstrong: 8 passesWright and Power: 9 passesWright and Stokes: 11 passesTaylor and Alebiosu: 14 passesAlebiosu and Power: 14 passesAlebiosu and Armstrong: 15 passesStokes and Jones: 20 passesHemming: 16 completed passesWright: 26 completed passesStokes: 27 completed passesTaylor: 23 completed passesAlebiosu: 28 completed passesJones: 20 completed passesPower: 27 completed passesAlston: 9 completed passesMcKenzie: 7 completed passesArmstrong: 25 completed passesLafferty: 3 completed passes1196525104871128HemmingWrightStokesTaylorAlebiosuJonesPowerAlstonMcKenzieArmstrongLaffertyStarters until 62' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
FraserStrain8
O'HaraTanser8
BaccusStrain7
StrainBaccus7
StrainFraser6

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
StokesJones11
PowerAlebiosu10
AlebiosuArmstrong10
WrightStokes10
JonesStokes9

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

2−2.75−3.211−3.38−0.97+3.37−1.712+3.75−0.29+3.310+4.04−2.63−1.230.08+3.99+4.36+2.84+1.03+0.75+2.68+5.75+2.620.00−1.03+1.81−1.60−1.71+0.41+0.10−0.70−1.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 9 matches

Kilmarnock

1−4.33−4.28−5.67−0.64−1.914+8.19+2.99+1.37+1.03−5.15−1.85−0.25+0.88+3.76+0.66+1.32−1.54+1.340.01−3.61−1.610.01+0.51−0.91−1.93+1.70−0.92+1.70−0.61+0.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 10 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.030.020.040.020.010.010.010.010.010.020.040.050.030.020.040.030.030.060.01−0.02−0.14−0.010.26LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.040.030.030.050.010.020.030.020.090.030.010.06−0.010.090.070.180.140.16LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.20AttackSt. Mirren0.92 → 0.91Kilmarnock0.96 → 0.97Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.37 → 1.37Kilmarnock1.35 → 1.32

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six39%35%−4
11th7%7%0
Bottom3%4%+1
Kilmarnock
Top six12%11%−1
11th18%18%0
Bottom18%18%0
St. Johnstone
Top six9%9%0
11th20%20%0
Bottom16%15%−1

From the forecast before the match (15 October 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenKilmarnock
Expected goals1.241.00
Win41%29%
Expected Points1.531.17
Clean sheet37%29%

St. Mirren 41%Draw 30%Kilmarnock 29%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 46%.

Kilmarnock goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+5%2%7%2%8%8%4%1%3%3%2%1%1%11%10%13%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 15 October 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawKilmarnock win
St. Mirren
Top six39%50%35%28%
11th7%4%7%10%
Bottom3%2%4%6%
Kilmarnock
Top six12%7%11%20%
11th18%21%18%13%
Bottom18%22%18%11%
St. Johnstone
Top six9%8%9%9%
11th20%19%20%21%
Bottom16%15%15%18%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. L0–48 OctRangers (A)xG 0.37–2.73
  2. W2–11 OctLivingston (H)xG 0.77–1.45
  3. W2–018 SepCeltic (H)xG 0.82–1.18
  4. L0–33 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.81–2.25
  5. W1–027 AugHibernian (H)xG 1.37–0.80
  6. W3–020 AugDundee United (A)xG 1.84–1.25

Kilmarnock

  1. D2–29 OctHearts (H)xG 1.68–1.17
  2. W2–15 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.28–0.87
  3. L1–41 OctAberdeen (A)xG 0.47–2.33
  4. L0–117 SepLivingston (A)xG 0.11–0.83
  5. L0–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.39–1.44
  6. W2–127 AugMotherwell (H)xG 1.52–0.70

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenKilmarnock
Position4th10th
Played910
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠0–⁠42–⁠2–⁠6
Points15 (1.67 per game)8 (0.80 per game)
Expected Points per game1.031.05
Goals10–⁠138–⁠19
xG per game1.06–⁠1.620.84–⁠1.35
Home: points, xG per game2.40, 1.12–⁠0.991.60, 1.28–⁠1.29
Away: points, xG per game0.75, 0.99–⁠2.400.00, 0.41–⁠1.40
ManagerStephen Robinson (2)Derek McInnes (10)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.20AttackSt. Mirren0.92, 10thKilmarnock0.96, 9thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.37, 10thKilmarnock1.35, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctSt. Mirren attack: 0.92Kilmarnock attack: 0.960.960.92KilmarnockSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctSt. Mirren defence: 1.37Kilmarnock defence: 1.351.371.35

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−30%+16%−35%−5%
Counter-attacks+115%−83%−51%−30%
Set pieces+2%−32%+1%+65%
Penalties−25%+273%−100%−33%
Headers+37%−7%−9%−14%
Left side−30%+30%−13%+1%
Centre−6%−16%−30%+7%
Right side−20%−2%−38%+20%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−30%+20%Centre−6%+7%Right side−20%+1%Open play−30%−5%Counter-attacks+115%−30%Set pieces+2%+65%Headers+37%−14%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−13%−2%Centre−30%−16%Right side−38%+30%Open play−35%+16%Counter-attacks−51%−83%Set pieces+1%−32%Headers−9%−7%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenKilmarnock

1.06xG0.84
1.62xG against1.35
36%Possession43%
10.0Shots11.1
13.4Shots against13.9
2.9Shots on target2.7
2.1Big chances1.1
12.5Touches in the opposition box17.3
255Passes316
60%Pass accuracy67%
6.1Corners4.7
36%Field tilt41%
29.3Final-third entries31.0
9.7Box entries8.8
19.0Passes per defensive action14.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level341.041.46
Ahead261.181.35
Behind290.972.03

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level320.901.26
Ahead141.150.81
Behind440.701.58

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.181–1
16–300.090.390–3
31–450.190.292–3
46–600.250.174–0
61–750.140.181–2
76–900.310.402–4

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.070.251–3
16–300.130.221–3
31–450.210.240–4
46–600.280.143–1
61–750.060.171–2
76–900.100.322–6

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTCarson 9Strain 7Fraser 2Fraser 5Gogic 2Gallagher 8Shaughne… 3ShaughnessyDunne 9Tait 5Tanser 4Baccus 9Erhahon 9O'Hara 7Kiltie 2Ayunga 8Kiltie 1Main 7Greive 25-3-2 in every start

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTWalker 6Hemming 4Alebiosu 6Mayo 2Taylor 1Taylor 6Wright 4Dorsett 2Mayo 6Stokes 2Chrisene 4McInroy 2Jones 1Polworth 4McKenzie 2Armstrong 1Power 8Alston 2Donnelly 2Taylor 2Armstrong 2Wright 2Power 2McKenzie 2Shaw 2Shaw 3Lafferty 2McKenzie 2Lafferty 5Shaw 2Doidge 24-2-3-1 in 2 of 10 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-4-2-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 5-3-2 (2), 3-5-1-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
12 May 2021Kilmarnock3–3St. MirrenxG 1.33–1.21
6 February 2021St. Mirren2–0KilmarnockxG 1.56–0.49
2 January 2021Kilmarnock1–1St. MirrenxG 0.97–0.52
26 September 2020St. Mirren0–1KilmarnockxG 0.49–0.65

4 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 1, Kilmarnock won 1, and 2 were drawn. Goals 6–5 and xG 0.95–0.86 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ayunga8648220.400.05
Strain7595020.050.22
Main7543200.190.07
O'Hara7607100.130.03

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong5495300.190.12
Shaw7602000.260.02
Lafferty7506100.170.01
Polworth6531020.060.11

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.