Matches › 2022/23

Celtic 3–1 Hearts

Wednesday 8 March 2023, 19:45 · Celtic Park · Round 27 · Half-time 1–1 · Referee Alan James Muir · Attendance 58,951

Celtic Maeda 25', Furuhashi 60', Haksabanovic 84'

Hearts Ginnelly 6'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Measure	Celtic	Hearts
Goals	3	1
xG	2.08	0.62
Expected Points	2.43	0.39

Celtic 75%Draw 18%Hearts 7%

Most likely score 2–0, 17%. Final score 3–1, 9%.

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

CelticHearts

2.08 −0.32xG0.62 −0.98

2.00 −0.52xG on target0.69 −0.69

11 −8Shots5 −7

3 −4.4Shots on target3 −1.4

4 +0.7Big chances1 −1.2

29 −12Touches in the opposition box11 −11

71% −1Possession29% −26

744 +78Passes302 −143

87% 0Pass accuracy72% −4

82% +2Field tilt18% −31

84 −1Final-third entries18 −17

21 −4Box entries4 −8

13.2 +3.9Passes per defensive action24.5 +10.0

7 −0.4Corners3 −2.2

12 −1Tackles15 0

11 +2.9Interceptions13 +4.8

4 −10Clearances19 +1

2 +0.5Saves0 −3.5

6 −5Fouls9 −1

5 +2.5Offsides0 −1.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Zones Shots

Celtic

Hearts

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

CelticHearts

1.94 9 shots, 3 goalsOpen play0.62 5 shots, 1 goal

0.13 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

0–11–12–1

Level: 47 min (49%) · Celtic 0.50, Hearts 0.44 xG
Celtic ahead: 30 min (31%) · Celtic 0.41, Hearts 0.19 xG
Hearts ahead: 19 min (20%) · Celtic 1.16, Hearts 0.00 xG

Line-ups

Celtic substitutes

31' Jota for Maeda
70' Hatate for O'Riley
71' Oh for Furuhashi
71' Haksabanovic for Abada · goal 84'
80' Iwata for Mooy

Hearts substitutes

44' Oda for Ginnelly · off 65'
65' Kuol for Oda
71' Smith for Devlin
71' Kingsley for Halliday
71' McKay for Forrest

Players

Celtic

Player	Pos	Min	G	A	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Hart	GK	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.02	2	0
Ralston	RB	90			0.06	0.06	0	0.01	5	2
Carter-Vickers	CB	90			0.07	0.04	0	0.18	13	4
Starfelt	CB	90			0.00	0.01	0	0.15	6	1
Bernabéi	LB	90		1	0.00	0.04	1	0.06	7	7
Mooy	CM	80		1	0.10	0.22	3	0.07	7	0
McGregor	CM	90			0.00	0.18	1	0.18	6	2
O'Riley	CM	70			0.00	0.04	0	0.01	5	1
Abada	RW	71			0.14	0.07	0	0.06	4	2
Furuhashi	ST	71	1	1	0.69	0.30	1	0.18	1	4
Maeda	LW	31	1		0.58	0.04	1	0.09	3	2
Jota	FW	59			0.35	0.05	0	0.03	8	1
Hatate	MF	20			0.00	0.02	1	0.05	3	1
Oh	FW	19			0.03	0.01	0	−0.02	0	0
Haksabanovic	FW	19	1		0.06	0.10	1	0.16	6	0
Iwata	DF	10			0.00	0.03	0	0.04	2	1

Hearts

Player	Pos	Min	G	A	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Clark	GK	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.03	4	1
Hill	CB	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.01	1	6
Sibbick	CB	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.00	1	8
Rowles	CB	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.13	3	4
Atkinson	RWB	90			0.00	0.08	1	0.09	2	4
Devlin	CM	71			0.00	0.01	1	0.04	3	6
Kiomourtzoglou	CM	90			0.09	0.00	0	−0.01	1	7
Grant	CM	90			0.14	0.03	0	−0.01	3	4
Halliday	LWB	71		1	0.00	0.52	1	0.20	5	1
Forrest	ST	71			0.04	0.01	0	0.04	3	1
Ginnelly	ST	44	1		0.26	0.08	1	0.19	1	0
Oda	FW	21			0.00	0.00	0	−0.01	0	2
Kuol	FW	25			0.10	0.00	0	0.02	1	0
Smith	DF	19			0.00	0.02	0	0.02	1	3
Kingsley	DF	19			0.00	0.00	0	0.02	2	2
McKay	FW	19			0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0	0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Celtic

Hearts

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Celtic

From	To	Passes
Carter-Vickers	Ralston	46
Starfelt	Bernabéi	31
Ralston	Carter-Vickers	30
Starfelt	Carter-Vickers	27
Carter-Vickers	Starfelt	23

Hearts

From	To	Passes
Rowles	Sibbick	11
Halliday	Rowles	9
Hill	Atkinson	8
Halliday	Grant	8
Sibbick	Hill	8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Celtic

Against its average of 27 matches

Hearts

Against its average of 27 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Celtic

Hearts

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

Chance	Before	With this result	Change
Celtic
Title	96%	97%	+1
Rangers
Title	4%	3%	−1

From the forecast before the match (8 March 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Measure	Celtic	Hearts
Expected goals	2.80	0.63
Win	82%	6%
Expected Points	2.58	0.29
Clean sheet	53%	6%

Celtic 82%Draw 13%Hearts 6%

Most likely score 2–0, 13%. Both sides score 44%.

From the forecast as it stood on 8 March 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

Chance	Now	Celtic win	Draw	Hearts win
Celtic
Title	96%	97%	92%	88%
Rangers
Title	4%	3%	8%	12%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Celtic

Hearts

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Measure	Celtic	Hearts
Position	1st	3rd
Played	27	27
Won, drawn, lost	25–⁠1–⁠1	13–⁠6–⁠8
Points	76 (2.81 per game)	45 (1.67 per game)
Expected Points per game	2.44	1.40
Goals	87–⁠19	48–⁠37
xG per game	2.40–⁠0.62	1.60–⁠1.59
Home: points, xG per game	3.00, 2.39–⁠0.50	2.21, 2.00–⁠1.60
Away: points, xG per game	2.64, 2.41–⁠0.72	1.08, 1.17–⁠1.57
Manager	Ange Postecoglou (65)	Robbie Neilson (65)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

This season

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Chances	Celtic		Hearts
Chances	Created	Conceded	Created	Conceded
Open play	+123%	−64%	+20%	+31%
Counter-attacks	+57%	−84%	+44%	−54%
Set pieces	+34%	−52%	+1%	+22%
Penalties	−22%	+16%	+75%	−3%
Headers	+56%	−48%	−15%	+33%
Left side	+69%	−56%	−7%	+21%
Centre	+132%	−61%	+24%	+29%
Right side	+71%	−68%	+25%	+23%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdHearts concededLeft side+69%+23%Centre+132%+29%Right side+71%+21%Open play+123%+31%Counter-attacks+57%−54%Set pieces+34%+22%Headers+56%+33%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdCeltic concededLeft side−7%−68%Centre+24%−61%Right side+25%−56%Open play+20%−64%Counter-attacks+44%−84%Set pieces+1%−52%Headers−15%−48%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticHearts

2.40xG1.60

0.62xG against1.59

72%Possession55%

18.8Shots12.1

6.3Shots against14.1

7.4Shots on target4.4

3.3Big chances2.2

41.5Touches in the opposition box21.7

666Passes445

87%Pass accuracy76%

7.4Corners5.2

81%Field tilt49%

84.9Final-third entries34.6

24.7Box entries11.5

9.3Passes per defensive action14.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Celtic

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	27	2.35	0.58
Ahead	57	2.48	0.64
Behind	6	1.81	0.56

Hearts

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	32	1.96	1.33
Ahead	32	1.53	1.87
Behind	27	1.26	1.55

xG by period

Celtic

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.36	0.10	17–2
16–30	0.24	0.06	7–1
31–45	0.48	0.13	17–4
46–60	0.40	0.15	15–7
61–75	0.26	0.10	9–2
76–90	0.66	0.07	22–3

Hearts

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.26	0.17	5–8
16–30	0.20	0.14	9–3
31–45	0.33	0.31	8–2
46–60	0.21	0.30	6–9
61–75	0.22	0.28	8–6
76–90	0.39	0.38	12–9

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Celtic

Formations: 4-3-3 (25), 4-2-3-1 (2)

Hearts

Formations: 3-4-3 (7), 4-2-3-1 (7), 3-4-2-1 (6), 4-1-4-1 (4), 3-5-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

Date	Home	Score	Away	xG
22 October 2022	Hearts	3–4	Celtic	xG 2.90–2.82
21 August 2022	Celtic	2–0	Hearts	xG 2.55–0.29
7 May 2022	Celtic	4–1	Hearts	xG 3.57–0.71
26 January 2022	Hearts	1–2	Celtic	xG 1.22–1.70
2 December 2021	Celtic	1–0	Hearts	xG 2.86–0.67
31 July 2021	Hearts	2–1	Celtic	xG 1.40–1.49

6 league meetings since 2020/21: Celtic won 5, Hearts won 1, and 0 were drawn. Goals 14–7 and xG 2.50–1.20 per game.

Key players

Celtic

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Abada	9	1,154	10	4	0.56	0.43
Giakoumakis	4	685	6	1	0.87	0.09
Forrest	5	480	4	2	0.57	0.27
Furuhashi	22	1,631	19	1	0.78	0.03

Hearts

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Shankland	23	2,152	17	4	0.76	0.10
Grant	6	742	2	2	0.30	0.20
Humphrys	7	661	3	0	0.44	0.03
Ginnelly	17	1,428	7	2	0.25	0.19

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.