Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Hibernian 1–2 Celtic

Wednesday 7 February 2024, 20:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 25 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Nick Walsh · Attendance 18,303

Hibernian Levitt 60'

Celtic Idah 10' (pen), 90+2' (pen)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianCeltic
Goals12
xG1.002.07
Non-penalty xG1.000.49
Expected Points0.532.26

Hibernian 10%Draw 22%Celtic 68%

Most likely score 1–2, 19%. Final score 1–2, 19%.

Celtic goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+1%7%8%1%1%9%9%2%4%10%4%1%3%1%16%19%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTMaolida on for Vente, 59'Amos on for Levitt, 68'Tavares on for Youan, 90+3'Ralston on for Johnston, 9'Abada on for Kühn, 65'Nawrocki on for Welsh, 66'Furuhashi on for Bernardo, 71'Palma on for Maeda, 72'Levitt 60'Idah 10' (pen)Idah 90+2' (pen)Celtic 2.07Hibernian 1.0001230153045607590HTMaolida on for Vente, 59'Amos on for Levitt, 68'Tavares on for Youan, 90+3'Ralston on for Johnston, 9'Abada on for Kühn, 65'Nawrocki on for Welsh, 66'Furuhashi on for Bernardo, 71'Palma on for Maeda, 72'Levitt 60'Idah 10' (pen)Idah 90+2' (pen)2.071.00HibernianCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianCeltic

1.00 −0.07xG2.07 −0.67
1.00Non-penalty xG0.49
0.46 −0.61xG on target2.28 −0.38
12 +2Shots8 −13
4 +0.6Shots on target3 −4.7
2 +0.3Big chances3 −1.0
23 +2Touches in the opposition box39 −7
34% −19Possession66% −4
304 −122Passes624 −40
72% −5Pass accuracy85% 0
23% −24Field tilt77% −3
19 −18Final-third entries58 −18
11 0Box entries21 −4
19.9 +5Passes per defensive action7.5 −3
4 −0.6Corners5 −5.2
16 +2Tackles14 −2
11 +3.3Interceptions7 +1.8
31 +8Clearances24 +9
1 −2.0Saves3 +1.5
14 +4.3Fouls18 +8.4
1 −0.6Offsides2 0.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Miller 80', 0.27 xGFish 84', 0.13 xGMaolida 62', 0.11 xGYouan 24', 0.10 xGMaolida 80', 0.10 xGMiller 70', 0.08 xGTriantis 70', 0.05 xGMaolida 69', 0.04 xGYouan 82', 0.03 xGTriantis 82', 0.03 xGTavares 90+7', 0.03 xGLevitt 60', 0.03 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals82%0.81 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.81 xG, 0 goals12%0.12 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals3%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 1 goal3%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Idah 57', 0.24 xGIdah 77', 0.10 xGO'Riley 86', 0.06 xGBernardo 15', 0.05 xGScales 50', 0.03 xGBernardo 58', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals41%0.20 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals47%0.23 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.23 xG, 0 goals10%0.05 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals2%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianCeltic

0.68 6 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.36 4 shots, 0 goals
0.32 6 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.13 2 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties1.58 2 shots, 2 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
42 min (41%) · Hibernian 0.84, Celtic 1.74 xG
Celtic ahead
61 min (59%) · Hibernian 0.15, Celtic 0.32 xG

Line-ups

1252321111030679MarshallMillerFishTriantisObitaNewellBoyleMoriah-WelshLevittYouanVenteYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoal68'90+3'59'Hibernian 4-1-4-1Nick Montgomery125752533422810938HartJohnstonWelshScalesBernabeiO'RileyMcGregorBernardoKühnIdahMaedaYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoal9'66'71'65'72'Celtic 4-3-3Brendan Rodgers

Hibernian substitutes

  • 59' Maolida for Vente
  • 68' Amos for Levitt
  • 90+3' Tavares for Youan

Celtic substitutes

  • 9' Ralston for Johnston
  • 65' Abada for Kühn
  • 66' Nawrocki for Welsh
  • 71' Furuhashi for Bernardo
  • 72' Palma for Maeda

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarshallGK900.000.0000.0340
MillerRB900.350.0710.15310
Fish CB9010.130.0120.01012
TriantisCB900.080.0910.1625
ObitaLB900.000.3700.1812
Newell DM900.000.3110.43912
Boyle RM900.000.0620.0852
Moriah-Welsh CM900.000.0000.0002
LevittCM6810.030.0100.0115
YouanLM900.130.1110.1243
VenteST590.000.0100.0013
MaolidaFW310.260.001−0.0202
AmosMF220.000.0100.0221
TavaresMF00.030.0000.0310

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HartGK900.000.0000.0112
JohnstonRB90.000.000––0
Welsh CB660.000.0500.1380
ScalesCB900.030.0610.1598
Bernabei LB900.000.4020.2995
O'RileyCM900.060.2500.1575
McGregorCM900.000.0800.0925
BernardoCM710.060.041−0.0121
KühnRW650.000.0500.0531
IdahST9021.910.0000.1121
MaedaLW720.000.0300.0231
RalstonDF810.000.0200.01312
AbadaFW250.000.0100.0221
NawrockiDF240.000.0000.0224
FuruhashiFW190.000.0200.0411
PalmaFW180.000.1810.0652

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Marshall and Newell: 3 passesMiller and Triantis: 3 passesMiller and Vente: 3 passesObita and Levitt: 3 passesBoyle and Moriah-Welsh: 3 passesNewell and Boyle: 4 passesNewell and Moriah-Welsh: 4 passesNewell and Vente: 4 passesLevitt and Youan: 4 passesYouan and Vente: 4 passesMiller and Moriah-Welsh: 5 passesTriantis and Fish: 5 passesTriantis and Levitt: 5 passesFish and Newell: 5 passesFish and Moriah-Welsh: 5 passesObita and Youan: 5 passesMiller and Fish: 6 passesNewell and Levitt: 6 passesMiller and Newell: 7 passesTriantis and Youan: 7 passesTriantis and Newell: 8 passesObita and Newell: 8 passesMarshall and Fish: 9 passesTriantis and Obita: 12 passesMarshall and Triantis: 19 passesMarshall: 24 completed passesMiller: 15 completed passesTriantis: 29 completed passesFish: 16 completed passesObita: 16 completed passesNewell: 31 completed passesBoyle: 6 completed passesMoriah-Welsh: 9 completed passesLevitt: 11 completed passesYouan: 9 completed passesVente: 8 completed passes1223521111030679MarshallMillerTriantisFishObitaNewellBoyleMoriah-WelshLevittYouanVenteStarters until 59' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
MarshallTriantis15
TriantisObita9
TriantisMarshall8
ObitaNewell8
NewellMiller8

Celtic

FromToPasses
ScalesWelsh45
WelshScales41
BernabeiScales24
ScalesBernabei19
HartWelsh13

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

3−2.613+5.722+5.26−1.21−3.79+1.512+5.610+5.07−0.47−0.42−2.30−2.83−2.64−1.47+1.02−1.12+0.230.03+0.43+1.20−1.21+0.13+1.61−1.11+0.42+1.71+0.70−0.40−0.81−5.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 23 matches

Celtic

1−1.98+4.111+1.97+1.410+5.74−1.65+0.52−1.96+1.48+4.40−3.79+2.76−1.54−0.13−0.14+1.74+0.97+1.72−1.54+1.17+5.32−1.06+2.21+0.10−0.61+0.44+3.30−1.41−5.52−5.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 24 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.020.020.010.030.01−0.010.050.140.040.020.070.090.040.180.42LessMore

Celtic

0.010.010.010.010.010.020.040.010.030.040.030.030.020.090.040.060.010.110.110.02−0.020.120.060.160.13LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackHibernian1.10 → 1.08Celtic2.31 → 2.31Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.43 → 1.44Celtic0.73 → 0.73

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Top six25%21%−4
11th6%7%+1
Bottom1%1%0
Celtic
Title47%51%+4
Rangers
Title53%49%−4
St. Mirren
Top six79%81%+2

From the forecast before the match (7 February 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianCeltic
Expected goals0.742.35
Win10%73%
Expected Points0.462.36
Clean sheet10%48%

Hibernian 10%Draw 17%Celtic 73%

Most likely score 0–2, 13%. Both sides score 48%.

Celtic goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+5%6%3%2%3%8%7%4%2%1%1%3%3%3%2%10%13%10%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 7 February 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawCeltic win
Hibernian
Top six25%47%30%21%
11th6%2%4%7%
Bottom1%<1%<1%1%
Celtic
Title47%32%38%51%
Rangers
Title53%68%62%49%
St. Mirren
Top six79%73%78%81%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. L0–33 FebSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.41–2.40
  2. D2–227 JanKilmarnock (A)xG 1.58–1.69
  3. L0–324 JanRangers (H)xG 0.93–2.09
  4. D2–22 JanMotherwell (H)xG 0.72–1.55
  5. L0–127 DecHearts (H)xG 1.85–1.30
  6. L0–116 DecSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.10–0.94

Celtic

  1. D1–13 FebAberdeen (A)xG 2.04–1.22
  2. W1–027 JanRoss County (H)xG 2.02–1.08
  3. W3–02 JanSt. Mirren (A)xG 3.62–0.18
  4. W2–130 DecRangers (H)xG 0.64–0.97
  5. W3–026 DecDundee FC (A)xG 2.79–0.13
  6. W2–023 DecLivingston (H)xG 3.66–0.00

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianCeltic
Position7th1st
Played2324
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠8–⁠918–⁠4–⁠2
Points26 (1.13 per game)58 (2.42 per game)
Expected Points per game1.042.36
Goals28–⁠3755–⁠16
xG per game1.07–⁠1.542.74–⁠0.86
Home: points, xG per game1.08, 1.23–⁠1.512.42, 2.99–⁠0.74
Away: points, xG per game1.18, 0.90–⁠1.592.42, 2.48–⁠0.99
ManagerNick Montgomery (19)Brendan Rodgers (24)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackHibernian1.10, 8thCeltic2.31, 1stDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.43, 10thCeltic0.73, 2nd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebHibernian attack: 1.10Celtic attack: 2.312.311.10CelticHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebHibernian defence: 1.43Celtic defence: 0.731.430.73

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−12%+18%+124%−26%
Counter-attacks−61%−34%+122%−21%
Set pieces−10%+17%+46%−31%
Penalties−54%+39%+122%−100%
Headers−17%−11%+41%−21%
Left side−12%+1%+105%−19%
Centre−18%+10%+89%−20%
Right side−14%+33%+127%−50%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdCeltic concededLeft side−12%−50%Centre−18%−20%Right side−14%−19%Open play−12%−26%Counter-attacks−61%−21%Set pieces−10%−31%Headers−17%−21%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdHibernian concededLeft side+105%+33%Centre+89%+10%Right side+127%+1%Open play+124%+18%Counter-attacks+122%−34%Set pieces+46%+17%Headers+41%−11%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianCeltic

1.07xG2.74
1.54xG against0.86
53%Possession70%
10.5Shots21.3
14.7Shots against7.4
3.4Shots on target7.7
1.7Big chances4.0
21.5Touches in the opposition box46.2
426Passes664
77%Pass accuracy85%
4.6Corners10.2
46%Field tilt81%
36.5Final-third entries76.5
11.0Box entries24.8
15.2Passes per defensive action10.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.051.30
Ahead220.981.63
Behind271.181.83

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level402.740.71
Ahead442.831.08
Behind51.870.28

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.222–4
16–300.180.164–5
31–450.150.303–6
46–600.170.243–6
61–750.170.2910–8
76–900.260.336–8

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.380.108–2
16–300.500.078–2
31–450.290.196–1
46–600.490.1210–2
61–750.310.195–4
76–900.750.2018–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMarshall 22Wollacott 1Miller 13Whittaker 5Megwa 2Fish 22Bushiri 12Hanlon 9Obita 1Obita 14Stevenson 8Levitt 1Youan 9Boyle 5Campbell 5Levitt 13Jeggo 11Doyle-Hayes 1Newell 21Tavares 12Youan 6Boyle 3Boyle 8Doidge 6Youan 2Vente 19Le Fondre 4Campbell 34-4-2 in 15 of 23 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (15), 4-2-3-1 (4), 4-3-3 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWHart 23Bain 1Johnston 20Ralston 4Carter-Vickers 14Nawrocki 4Lagerbielke 4Scales 22Taylor 22Bernabei 2O'Riley 23McGregor 24Iwata 2Turnbull 9Bernardo 8Hatate 4Maeda 9Abada 5Yang 5Furuhashi 21Oh 3Palma 16Maeda 6Yang 24-3-3 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
6 December 2023Celtic4–1HibernianxG 4.10–1.50
28 October 2023Hibernian0–0CelticxG 0.57–1.49
24 May 2023Hibernian4–2CelticxG 2.04–2.37
18 March 2023Celtic3–1HibernianxG 3.96–0.90
28 December 2022Hibernian0–4CelticxG 0.55–2.61
15 October 2022Celtic6–1HibernianxG 2.74–0.44

13 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 1, Celtic won 7, and 5 were drawn. Goals 11–30 and xG 0.96–2.38 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Doidge6643320.490.05
Le Fondre4527310.390.05
Youan171,607430.190.14
Boyle161,437230.160.15

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Turnbull9676700.710.39
Oh3600500.950.05
Palma161,242590.430.44
Furuhashi211,695830.600.11

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.