Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Hearts 3–4 Celtic

Saturday 22 October 2022, 12:30 · Tynecastle Park · Round 12 · Half-time 1–1 · Referee Nick Walsh · Attendance 18,081

Hearts Shankland 45+3' (pen), 47', 65' (pen)

Celtic Forrest 14', Giakoumakis 55', Maeda 59', Taylor 76'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsCeltic
Goals34
xG2.902.82
Non-penalty xG1.332.82
Expected Points1.431.32

Hearts 40%Draw 25%Celtic 36%

Most likely score 3–3, 11%. Final score 3–4, 6%.

Celtic goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+1%2%3%2%3%5%2%4%6%2%2%5%6%4%1%2%2%1%8%8%9%11%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

012340153045607590HTShankland on for Humphrys, 39'Forrest on for Ginnelly, 70'Halliday on for M. Smith, 84'C. Smith on for Kiomourtzoglou, 85'Haksabanovic on for Maeda, Abada on for Forrest, and Taylor on for Bernabéi, 66'Abildgaard on for Hatate, 90+2'Shankland 45+3' (pen)Shankland 47'Shankland 65' (pen)Forrest 14'Giakoumakis 55'Maeda 59'Taylor 76'Hearts 2.90Celtic 2.82012340153045607590HTShankland on for Humphrys, 39'Forrest on for Ginnelly, 70'Halliday on for M. Smith, 84'C. Smith on for Kiomourtzoglou, 85'Haksabanovic on for Maeda, Abada on for Forrest, and Taylor on for Bernabéi, 66'Abildgaard on for Hatate, 90+2'Shankland 45+3' (pen)Shankland 47'Shankland 65' (pen)Forrest 14'Giakoumakis 55'Maeda 59'Taylor 76'2.902.82HeartsCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsCeltic

2.90 +1.59xG2.82 +0.22
1.33Non-penalty xG2.82
2.89 +1.76xG on target4.14 +1.39
15 +3Shots11 −8
6 +1.7Shots on target7 −0.6
3 +0.9Big chances6 +2.4
27 +8Touches in the opposition box27 −8
37% −14Possession63% −6
321 −87Passes560 −44
68% −5Pass accuracy82% −3
38% −10Field tilt62% −14
21 −13Final-third entries51 −26
11 +1Box entries15 −7
14.0 −1Passes per defensive action9.6 0
3 −0.9Corners6 −1.6
20 +2Tackles17 +3
19 +11.0Interceptions6 −1.0
13 −3Clearances15 0
3 −0.4Saves3 +1.0
9 −2Fouls15 +5
0 −0.9Offsides4 +0.7

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Snodgrass 14', 0.27 xGMcKay 8', 0.10 xGHumphrys 16', 0.10 xGDevlin 53', 0.10 xGKiomourtzoglou 41', 0.09 xGKingsley 27', 0.06 xGCochrane 81', 0.06 xGM. Smith 18', 0.05 xGForrest 85', 0.03 xGHumphrys 14', 0.02 xGHumphrys 32', 0.02 xGKingsley 17', 0.01 xGShankland 47', 0.41 xG, goal31%0.41 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.41 xG, 1 goal28%0.37 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.37 xG, 0 goals34%0.45 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.45 xG, 0 goals5%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Abada 89', 0.42 xGMooy 52', 0.34 xGMaeda 9', 0.12 xGForrest 54', 0.11 xGHatate 67', 0.08 xGAbada 76', 0.08 xGMooy 59', 0.05 xGForrest 14', 0.67 xG, goalTaylor 76', 0.48 xG, goalMaeda 59', 0.32 xG, goalGiakoumakis 55', 0.16 xG, goal56%1.58 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 1.58 xG, 2 goals36%1.01 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 1.01 xG, 2 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals8%0.23 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsCeltic

1.16 10 shots, 1 goalOpen play2.66 10 shots, 3 goals
0.17 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.16 1 shot, 1 goal
1.58 2 shots, 2 goalsPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
31 min (32%) · Hearts 0.81, Celtic 1.80 xG
Hearts ahead
8 min (8%) · Hearts 0.10, Celtic 0.60 xG
Celtic ahead
59 min (60%) · Hearts 2.00, Celtic 0.42 xG

Line-ups

122131914308771829GordonM. SmithSibbickKingsleyCochraneDevlinGinnellyKiomourtzoglouSnodgrassMcKayHumphrysYellow card84'70'85'39'Hearts 4-1-4-1Robbie Neilson1562062513334149738HartRalstonCarter-VickersJenzBernabéiMooyO'RileyHatateForrestGiakoumakisMaedaYellow cardGoalGoalGoal66'90+2'66'66'Celtic 4-3-3Ange Postecoglou

Hearts substitutes

  • 39' Shankland for Humphrys · goal 45+3' (pen), goal 47', goal 65' (pen)
  • 70' Forrest for Ginnelly
  • 84' Halliday for M. Smith
  • 85' C. Smith for Kiomourtzoglou · yellow card 90+5'

Celtic substitutes

  • 66' Taylor for Bernabéi · goal 76'
  • 66' Abada for Forrest
  • 66' Haksabanovic for Maeda
  • 90+2' Abildgaard for Hatate

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0002
M. SmithRB840.050.0610.1133
Sibbick CB900.000.0000.0224
KingsleyCB900.070.0000.0218
CochraneLB900.060.0100.0218
DevlinDM900.100.020−0.0326
GinnellyRM7010.000.3610.2642
KiomourtzoglouCM850.090.0120.0529
SnodgrassCM900.270.1720.1215
McKayLM900.100.0700.1192
HumphrysST390.140.0110.0420
ShanklandFW5131.990.000−0.0202
ForrestMF200.030.0000.0111
HallidayMF60.000.0000.0001
C. Smith MF50.000.0000.0000

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HartGK900.000.0000.0220
RalstonRB900.000.0300.0654
Carter-VickersCB900.000.0100.10128
Jenz CB900.000.0100.09106
BernabéiLB660.000.0100.0140
MooyCM9010.380.5140.2264
O'RileyCM900.000.0300.0783
HatateCM900.080.1110.2785
ForrestRW6610.780.0600.1260
GiakoumakisST9010.160.020−0.0302
MaedaLW6610.440.202−0.0731
TaylorDF2410.480.0100.0323
AbadaFW240.500.0000.0401
HaksabanovicFW240.000.6010.2153
AbildgaardDF00.000.0000.0012

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Gordon and Sibbick: 3 passesGordon and Kingsley: 3 passesM. Smith and Ginnelly: 3 passesM. Smith and Humphrys: 3 passesSibbick and Snodgrass: 3 passesCochrane and Snodgrass: 3 passesDevlin and Kiomourtzoglou: 3 passesDevlin and Snodgrass: 3 passesDevlin and McKay: 3 passesKiomourtzoglou and Humphrys: 3 passesMcKay and Humphrys: 3 passesSnodgrass and McKay: 4 passesM. Smith and Kiomourtzoglou: 5 passesCochrane and McKay: 5 passesSibbick and Kingsley: 6 passesKingsley and Cochrane: 6 passesM. Smith and Devlin: 7 passesM. Smith and Sibbick: 8 passesGordon: 4 completed passesM. Smith: 17 completed passesSibbick: 13 completed passesKingsley: 10 completed passesCochrane: 8 completed passesDevlin: 14 completed passesGinnelly: 2 completed passesKiomourtzoglou: 9 completed passesSnodgrass: 8 completed passesMcKay: 10 completed passesHumphrys: 4 completed passes122131914308771829GordonM. SmithSibbickKingsleyCochraneDevlinGinnellyKiomourtzoglouSnodgrassMcKayHumphrysStarters until 39' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Celtic

Mooy and Giakoumakis: 5 passesRalston and Jenz: 6 passesForrest and Giakoumakis: 6 passesHatate and Forrest: 7 passesJenz and O'Riley: 8 passesBernabéi and O'Riley: 8 passesMooy and O'Riley: 8 passesHatate and Maeda: 8 passesHart and Carter-Vickers: 9 passesRalston and Forrest: 9 passesJenz and Hatate: 9 passesBernabéi and Hatate: 9 passesO'Riley and Hatate: 9 passesBernabéi and Maeda: 10 passesMooy and Hatate: 10 passesJenz and Maeda: 11 passesCarter-Vickers and O'Riley: 11 passesRalston and Mooy: 14 passesRalston and O'Riley: 15 passesMooy and Forrest: 15 passesHart and Jenz: 20 passesRalston and Carter-Vickers: 23 passesJenz and Bernabéi: 25 passesJenz and Carter-Vickers: 45 passesHart: 24 completed passesRalston: 44 completed passesJenz: 63 completed passesCarter-Vickers: 53 completed passesBernabéi: 38 completed passesMooy: 29 completed passesO'Riley: 35 completed passesHatate: 28 completed passesForrest: 18 completed passesGiakoumakis: 11 completed passesMaeda: 16 completed passes1566202513334149738HartRalstonJenzCarter-VickersBernabéiMooyO'RileyHatateForrestGiakoumakisMaedaStarters until 66' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
SibbickKingsley8
M. SmithSibbick7
KingsleyCochrane7
M. SmithDevlin7
CochraneMcKay6

Celtic

FromToPasses
JenzCarter-Vickers30
Carter-VickersRalston22
Carter-VickersJenz22
HartJenz17
RalstonCarter-Vickers14

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

2−2.96−0.511+0.23−2.93−0.46−2.48+2.46−0.58−0.18+0.77+1.72−3.78+4.94−1.85−0.54−0.51−2.84+1.23+0.36+1.29+6.15+3.72+1.31−0.13+1.11+0.50−0.30−0.60−0.20−0.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 10 matches

Celtic

2−0.72−1.611+1.95−2.18+2.64+0.76+1.84−2.48+3.52−2.24+0.57+1.011+4.36+2.12−0.74+2.44+2.25−1.54+0.53+1.91−1.24+1.42−0.41−0.50−0.91+0.42+1.33+2.12−4.13−4.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 10 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.010.020.010.010.020.020.030.020.010.040.010.070.030.040.010.05−0.010.13−0.010.21LessMore

Celtic

0.020.010.040.010.020.020.030.040.020.060.040.030.040.040.020.020.040.010.040.080.070.08−0.010.020.210.15LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.20AttackHearts1.19 → 1.22Celtic2.29 → 2.28Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.27 → 1.28Celtic0.62 → 0.66

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six71%68%−3
11th2%2%0
Bottom1%1%0
Celtic
Title72%76%+4
Rangers
Title28%24%−4
St. Mirren
Top six36%37%+1
11th9%9%0
Bottom4%4%0

From the forecast before the match (22 October 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsCeltic
Expected goals0.742.18
Win11%70%
Expected Points0.522.29
Clean sheet11%48%

Hearts 11%Draw 19%Celtic 70%

Most likely score 0–2, 13%. Both sides score 47%.

Celtic goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+6%5%2%1%4%9%7%4%2%1%3%4%3%1%11%13%9%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 22 October 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawCeltic win
Hearts
Top six71%85%75%68%
11th2%1%2%2%
Bottom1%<1%<1%1%
Celtic
Title72%62%64%76%
Rangers
Title28%38%36%24%
St. Mirren
Top six36%32%35%37%
11th9%9%8%9%
Bottom4%5%4%4%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. L0–216 OctAberdeen (A)xG 1.36–1.73
  2. D2–29 OctKilmarnock (A)xG 1.17–1.68
  3. L0–41 OctRangers (H)xG 0.41–1.85
  4. W3–018 SepMotherwell (A)xG 1.92–2.83
  5. L0–13 SepLivingston (A)xG 0.69–1.19
  6. W3–228 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.74–0.77

Celtic

  1. W6–115 OctHibernian (H)xG 2.74–0.44
  2. W2–18 OctSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.66–0.43
  3. W2–11 OctMotherwell (H)xG 3.50–0.35
  4. L0–218 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.18–0.82
  5. W4–03 SepRangers (H)xG 1.88–0.79
  6. W9–028 AugDundee United (A)xG 5.53–0.22

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsCeltic
Position7th1st
Played1010
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠2–⁠49–⁠0–⁠1
Points14 (1.40 per game)27 (2.70 per game)
Expected Points per game1.132.53
Goals15–⁠1635–⁠6
xG per game1.31–⁠1.682.60–⁠0.47
Home: points, xG per game2.25, 1.68–⁠1.343.00, 2.51–⁠0.42
Away: points, xG per game0.83, 1.06–⁠1.912.40, 2.69–⁠0.51
ManagerRobbie Neilson (48)Ange Postecoglou (48)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.20AttackHearts1.19, 3rdCeltic2.29, 1stDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.27, 6thCeltic0.62, 1st

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctHearts attack: 1.19Celtic attack: 2.292.291.19CelticHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctHearts defence: 1.27Celtic defence: 0.621.270.62

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+21%+49%+135%−66%
Counter-attacks−69%−41%+110%−100%
Set pieces−25%+24%+98%−31%
Penalties−25%−25%−100%−100%
Headers−18%+23%+79%−28%
Left side+16%+54%+43%−47%
Centre+7%+29%+206%−64%
Right side−2%+42%+83%−67%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdCeltic concededLeft side+16%−67%Centre+7%−64%Right side−2%−47%Open play+21%−66%Counter-attacks−69%−100%Set pieces−25%−31%Headers−18%−28%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdHearts concededLeft side+43%+42%Centre+206%+29%Right side+83%+54%Open play+135%+49%Counter-attacks+110%−41%Set pieces+98%+24%Headers+79%+23%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsCeltic

1.31xG2.60
1.68xG against0.47
51%Possession69%
11.8Shots19.1
14.5Shots against7.1
4.3Shots on target7.6
2.1Big chances3.6
18.6Touches in the opposition box34.8
408Passes604
73%Pass accuracy86%
3.9Corners7.6
48%Field tilt76%
34.2Final-third entries76.9
10.4Box entries21.8
14.9Passes per defensive action10.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level312.091.50
Ahead291.271.94
Behind300.561.63

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level262.690.25
Ahead602.640.50
Behind51.631.19

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.141–3
16–300.250.223–2
31–450.250.291–0
46–600.200.333–3
61–750.160.292–2
76–900.260.405–6

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.490.037–0
16–300.270.092–0
31–450.580.128–2
46–600.370.115–3
61–750.340.053–0
76–900.550.0710–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 9Stewart 1Smith 5Sibbick 2Atkinson 2Rowles 5Neilson 4Halkett 3Kingsley 5Cochrane 1Cochrane 7Halliday 2Kiomourtzoglou 1Halliday 4Haring 4Kiomourtzoglou 2Devlin 5Snodgrass 2Grant 2Forrest 4McKay 2Humphrys 2Boyce 3McKay 2Atkinson 2McKay 4Mackay-Steven 3Forrest 2Shankland 6Humphrys 2Ginnelly 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 10 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 3-4-3 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWHart 10Juranovic 7Ralston 3Carter-Vickers 8Welsh 4Jenz 6Starfelt 2Taylor 8Bernabei 2O'Riley 9Mooy 2McGregor 8Haksabanovic 1Hatate 6Turnbull 4Abada 4Jota 3Maeda 2Furuhashi 8Giakoumakis 2Jota 5Maeda 4Haksabanovic 14-3-3 in 8 of 10 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (8), 4-2-3-1 (2)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
21 August 2022Celtic2–0HeartsxG 2.55–0.29
7 May 2022Celtic4–1HeartsxG 3.57–0.71
26 January 2022Hearts1–2CelticxG 1.22–1.70
2 December 2021Celtic1–0HeartsxG 2.86–0.67
31 July 2021Hearts2–1CelticxG 1.40–1.49

5 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 1, Celtic won 4, and 0 were drawn. Goals 4–10 and xG 0.86–2.43 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland7661420.540.06
Forrest8635300.280.07
McKay8714210.120.17
Smith6543000.090.06

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Abada4452620.820.37
Furuhashi8545711.070.05
Jota8682450.320.45
O'Riley9683050.250.44

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.