Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Dundee FC 2–3 Hearts

Saturday 3 February 2024, 15:00 · The Scot Foam Stadium at Dens Park · Round 24 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Graham Grainger · Attendance 7,506

Dundee FC McGhee 26', Cameron 59'

Hearts Forrest 55', Shankland 79' (pen), 87'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Dundee FCHearts
Goals23
xG1.691.76
Non-penalty xG1.690.97
Expected Points1.301.41

Dundee FC 34%Draw 29%Hearts 37%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Final score 2–3, 5%.

Hearts goalsDundee FC goals0123456+0123456+1%5%4%2%2%5%1%2%5%1%1%6%5%3%2%2%13%11%11%12%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTRobinson on for Mellon, 66'Vargas on for Oda, 60'Fraser on for Grant, 61'Tait on for Baningime, 72'Halkett on for Forrest, 89'McGhee 26'Cameron 59'Forrest 55'Shankland 79' (pen)Shankland 87'Hearts 1.76Dundee FC 1.6900.511.520153045607590HTRobinson on for Mellon, 66'Vargas on for Oda, 60'Fraser on for Grant, 61'Tait on for Baningime, 72'Halkett on for Forrest, 89'McGhee 26'Cameron 59'Forrest 55'Shankland 79' (pen)Shankland 87'1.761.69Dundee FCHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Dundee FCHearts

1.69 +0.43xG1.76 +0.54
1.69Non-penalty xG0.97
1.06 −0.35xG on target2.60 +1.32
14 +3Shots18 +5
8 +4.1Shots on target6 +1.7
2 +0.1Big chances2 +0.7
25 +5Touches in the opposition box32 +7
42% 0Possession58% +2
354 +29Passes496 +47
75% +8Pass accuracy82% +7
37% −1Field tilt63% +10
38 +5Final-third entries66 +25
13 +4.0Box entries19 +6.6
21.1 +4Passes per defensive action14.9 +2
8 +3.3Corners5 −2.0
12 −4Tackles18 +4
7 −2.4Interceptions6 −0.3
25 −3Clearances17 −5
3 +0.2Saves5 +2.4
7 −3Fouls6 −6
2 +0.6Offsides0 −0.9

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Dundee FC

Robinson 82', 0.53 xGMellon 30', 0.27 xGAshcroft 47', 0.23 xGDodgson 71', 0.13 xGBeck 85', 0.13 xGBakayoko 24', 0.07 xGMcGhee 58', 0.06 xGMcGhee 70', 0.06 xGRobinson 82', 0.04 xGMellon 32', 0.03 xGBoateng 29', 0.02 xGMcGhee 30', 0.02 xGCameron 59', 0.06 xG, goalMcGhee 26', 0.03 xG, goal55%0.93 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.93 xG, 0 goals32%0.54 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.54 xG, 1 goal9%0.16 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.16 xG, 0 goals4%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Shankland 22', 0.10 xGNieuwenhof 74', 0.09 xGForrest 25', 0.07 xGShankland 90+2', 0.06 xGForrest 41', 0.05 xGGrant 35', 0.04 xGShankland 39', 0.04 xGForrest 77', 0.04 xGShankland 78', 0.04 xGShankland 15', 0.03 xGCochrane 45', 0.02 xGShankland 58', 0.02 xGNieuwenhof 74', 0.02 xGLembikisa 74', 0.01 xGCochrane 75', 0.01 xGForrest 55', 0.24 xG, goalShankland 87', 0.09 xG, goal9%0.09 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.09 xG, 0 goals56%0.54 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.54 xG, 2 goals19%0.18 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals15%0.15 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Dundee FCHearts

0.98 9 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.72 13 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.15 2 shots, 1 goal
0.71 5 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.10 2 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
38 min (41%) · Dundee FC 0.93, Hearts 0.31 xG
Dundee FC ahead
49 min (53%) · Dundee FC 0.76, Hearts 1.39 xG
Hearts ahead
5 min (5%) · Dundee FC 0.00, Hearts 0.06 xG

Line-ups

316145363102317269CarsonMcGheeAshcroftShaughnessyDodgsonBeckCameronBoatengMcCowanMellonBakayokoGoalGoalYellow cardYellow cardYellow card66'Dundee FC 5-3-2Tony Docherty28812121986117179ClarkLembikisaSibbickKentCochraneNieuwenhofBaningimeOdaGrantForrestShanklandYellow cardGoalGoalGoal72'60'61'89'Hearts 4-2-3-1Steven Naismith

Dundee FC substitutes

  • 66' Robinson for Mellon

Hearts substitutes

  • 60' Vargas for Oda · 1 assist
  • 61' Fraser for Grant
  • 72' Tait for Baningime
  • 89' Halkett for Forrest

Players

Dundee FC

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
CarsonGK900.000.0000.0340
McGheeRWB9010.180.4320.2672
AshcroftCB900.230.1420.3289
ShaughnessyCB900.000.0000.03310
DodgsonCB900.130.0410.17124
BeckLWB900.130.2630.0686
CameronCM9010.060.0610.0433
Boateng CM900.020.0000.0127
McCowan CM9020.000.0830.14104
MellonST660.300.0200.0523
Bakayoko ST900.070.010−0.0413
RobinsonFW240.570.000−0.0410

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0100.0631
LembikisaRB900.010.1310.27226
SibbickCB900.000.0200.11105
KentCB900.000.0110.1285
Cochrane LB900.030.0630.25254
NieuwenhofDM900.110.040−0.0233
BaningimeDM720.000.0500.0795
OdaRW600.000.0420.0452
GrantAM610.040.010−0.0341
ForrestLW8910.400.1040.2563
ShanklandST90211.160.0710.0214
VargasMF3010.000.1220.2130
FraserMF290.000.0510.0003
TaitMF180.000.0000.0011
HalkettDF10.000.0000.0111

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Dundee FC

McGhee and Ashcroft: 3 passesMcGhee and Boateng: 3 passesMcGhee and Bakayoko: 3 passesShaughnessy and Boateng: 3 passesBoateng and Cameron: 3 passesBoateng and Bakayoko: 3 passesCameron and Mellon: 3 passesMcGhee and McCowan: 4 passesShaughnessy and Dodgson: 4 passesBeck and Mellon: 4 passesBoateng and McCowan: 4 passesMcCowan and Mellon: 4 passesCarson and Shaughnessy: 6 passesMcCowan and Cameron: 6 passesShaughnessy and Ashcroft: 7 passesDodgson and McCowan: 7 passesBeck and Bakayoko: 7 passesCameron and Bakayoko: 8 passesMcGhee and Cameron: 9 passesDodgson and Bakayoko: 9 passesAshcroft and Cameron: 9 passesDodgson and Beck: 10 passesBeck and McCowan: 10 passesMcCowan and Bakayoko: 13 passesCarson: 12 completed passesMcGhee: 11 completed passesShaughnessy: 14 completed passesDodgson: 22 completed passesAshcroft: 14 completed passesBeck: 23 completed passesBoateng: 13 completed passesMcCowan: 22 completed passesCameron: 21 completed passesBakayoko: 20 completed passesMellon: 4 completed passes316531463231710926CarsonMcGheeShaughnessyDodgsonAshcroftBeckBoatengMcCowanCameronBakayokoMellonStarters until 66' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hearts

Kent and Shankland: 5 passesSibbick and Baningime: 5 passesSibbick and Grant: 5 passesCochrane and Shankland: 5 passesBaningime and Grant: 5 passesGrant and Shankland: 5 passesClark and Sibbick: 6 passesSibbick and Oda: 6 passesNieuwenhof and Baningime: 6 passesSibbick and Nieuwenhof: 7 passesLembikisa and Kent: 8 passesClark and Kent: 9 passesLembikisa and Oda: 9 passesLembikisa and Shankland: 12 passesKent and Baningime: 12 passesLembikisa and Sibbick: 13 passesCochrane and Grant: 13 passesCochrane and Baningime: 18 passesKent and Sibbick: 20 passesLembikisa and Nieuwenhof: 24 passesCochrane and Forrest: 26 passesKent and Cochrane: 30 passesClark: 19 completed passesLembikisa: 41 completed passesKent: 47 completed passesSibbick: 37 completed passesCochrane: 53 completed passesNieuwenhof: 29 completed passesBaningime: 35 completed passesOda: 11 completed passesGrant: 19 completed passesForrest: 20 completed passesShankland: 13 completed passes28812211986117179ClarkLembikisaKentSibbickCochraneNieuwenhofBaningimeOdaGrantForrestShanklandStarters until 60' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Dundee FC

FromToPasses
CameronMcGhee11
DodgsonBakayoko9
DodgsonBeck9
BeckDodgson9
BakayokoMcCowan9

Hearts

FromToPasses
CochraneForrest21
KentCochrane20
KentSibbick17
CochraneKent16
SibbickLembikisa15

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Dundee FC

5−0.25−3.515−4.416+6.27−0.77−0.670.010+4.810+3.04−4.43−3.01−3.65+1.42−2.610+4.34−1.02−1.24+1.83−0.46+3.00−2.30−1.910.01−0.130.00−0.80−0.50−0.41+0.40−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 21 matches

Hearts

8+2.58+0.33−4.02−2.510+2.36+0.46+1.79+1.75−1.88+2.84−1.25+0.22−3.64−2.13−0.92−2.14+1.02−1.34−0.82+0.31−0.63+1.91−0.32−0.42+1.21+0.20−0.61+0.30−0.79−6.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 23 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Dundee FC

0.010.020.010.010.030.020.010.020.040.050.010.010.050.040.020.010.040.010.050.05−0.01−0.010.090.050.03−0.040.020.37LessMore

Hearts

0.050.010.010.030.020.030.030.020.040.030.050.030.060.100.100.070.030.060.070.020.090.090.10−0.210.010.040.190.19LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.28AttackDundee FC1.08 → 1.10Hearts1.30 → 1.32Defence (lower is better)Dundee FC1.50 → 1.51Hearts1.23 → 1.23

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Dundee FC
Top six47%36%−11
11th3%5%+2
Bottom0%1%+1
Aberdeen
Top six49%52%+3
St. Mirren
Top six52%56%+4
11th2%2%0

From the forecast before the match (3 February 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Dundee FCHearts
Expected goals1.241.39
Win33%40%
Expected Points1.261.47
Clean sheet25%29%

Dundee FC 33%Draw 27%Hearts 40%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

Hearts goalsDundee FC goals0123456+0123456+8%7%3%1%8%9%4%1%6%8%5%2%2%3%2%1%1%9%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 3 February 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowDundee FC winDrawHearts win
Dundee FC
Top six47%62%46%36%
11th3%2%3%5%
Bottom0%<1%<1%1%
Aberdeen
Top six49%45%49%52%
St. Mirren
Top six52%49%51%56%
11th2%2%2%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Dundee FC

  1. D1–130 JanAberdeen (A)xG 0.59–1.46
  2. W4–127 JanLivingston (A)xG 1.11–2.22
  3. L2–323 JanHearts (A)xG 0.69–2.21
  4. D2–230 DecKilmarnock (A)xG 0.53–0.69
  5. L0–326 DecCeltic (H)xG 0.13–2.79
  6. W1–016 DecRoss County (A)xG 2.43–0.90

Hearts

  1. W2–027 JanAberdeen (H)xG 1.58–0.93
  2. W3–223 JanDundee FC (H)xG 2.21–0.69
  3. W2–12 JanLivingston (A)xG 1.94–1.66
  4. D2–230 DecRoss County (H)xG 1.87–1.54
  5. W1–027 DecHibernian (A)xG 1.30–1.85
  6. W2–023 DecSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.20–0.64

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Dundee FCHearts
Position6th3rd
Played2123
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠8–⁠713–⁠3–⁠7
Points26 (1.24 per game)42 (1.83 per game)
Expected Points per game1.221.33
Goals29–⁠3329–⁠20
xG per game1.26–⁠1.731.22–⁠1.42
Home: points, xG per game1.33, 1.24–⁠1.871.75, 1.36–⁠1.26
Away: points, xG per game1.17, 1.26–⁠1.621.91, 1.07–⁠1.60
ManagerTony Docherty (21)Steven Naismith (19)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.28AttackDundee FC1.08, 8thHearts1.30, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Dundee FC1.50, 11thHearts1.23, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanDundee FC attack: 1.08Hearts attack: 1.301.301.08HeartsDundee FCDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanDundee FC defence: 1.50Hearts defence: 1.231.501.23

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Dundee FCHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−18%+23%−10%average
Counter-attacks−20%+27%−4%−27%
Set pieces+44%+6%−11%+14%
Penalties−50%+100%−9%+37%
Headers+2%+52%−27%average
Left side+4%+24%−6%−12%
Centre+6%+17%−18%−5%
Right side−22%+17%+4%+30%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Dundee FC attacking

Dundee FC createdHearts concededLeft side+4%+30%Centre+6%−5%Right side−22%−12%Open play−18%averageCounter-attacks−20%−27%Set pieces+44%+14%Headers+2%average

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdDundee FC concededLeft side−6%+17%Centre−18%+17%Right side+4%+24%Open play−10%+23%Counter-attacks−4%+27%Set pieces−11%+6%Headers−27%+52%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Dundee FCHearts

1.26xG1.22
1.73xG against1.42
42%Possession56%
11.2Shots13.1
14.9Shots against13.5
3.9Shots on target4.3
1.9Big chances1.3
20.4Touches in the opposition box25.0
325Passes449
67%Pass accuracy74%
4.7Corners7.0
38%Field tilt54%
32.9Final-third entries40.7
9.0Box entries12.4
17.3Passes per defensive action12.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Dundee FC

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level471.211.51
Ahead211.181.91
Behind221.421.99

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.321.14
Ahead280.851.69
Behind171.581.70

xG by period

Dundee FC

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.120.181–3
16–300.120.295–4
31–450.230.295–4
46–600.260.264–5
61–750.230.284–5
76–900.300.4410–12

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.193–2
16–300.180.265–3
31–450.100.191–2
46–600.230.285–3
61–750.320.149–4
76–900.250.366–6

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Dundee FC

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTCarson 19Sharp 1McCracken 1Portales 10Ashcroft 5McGhee 5Shaughnessy 21Lamie 11Donnelly 5Dodgson 2McGhee 12McCowan 2Robertson 2Cameron 13Robertson 3Mulligan 3Boateng 18Sylla 6Beck 2McCowan 16Beck 15Tiffoney 2Dodgson 1Bakayoko 20Robinson 7Rudden 9Tiffoney 3Beck 13-5-2 in 10 of 21 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (10), 5-3-2 (4), 4-3-3 (2), 4-1-4-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 3-5-1-1 (1)

Hearts

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTClark 23Kingsley 11Atkinson 5Sibbick 4Kent 23Halkett 4Rowles 20Oda 6Forrest 5Atkinson 5Nieuwen… 15NieuwenhofDevlin 7Denholm 6Baningime 13Boyce 3Shankland 2Grant 7Lowry 7Haring 5Cochrane 13Vargas 3Lowry 3Shankland 21Kingsley 6Vargas 5Boyce 43-5-2 in 12 of 23 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (12), 4-2-3-1 (9), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
23 January 2024Hearts3–2Dundee FCxG 2.21–0.69
27 August 2023Dundee FC1–0HeartsxG 1.52–0.86
9 February 2022Hearts1–2Dundee FCxG 1.76–0.86
18 December 2021Dundee FC0–1HeartsxG 0.14–1.02
23 October 2021Hearts1–1Dundee FCxG 1.49–0.52

5 league meetings since 2020/21: Dundee FC won 2, Hearts won 2, and 1 was a draw. Goals 6–6 and xG 0.75–1.47 per game.

Key players

Dundee FC

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Robinson9789300.480.03
Rudden9821210.330.04
Bakayoko201,707530.310.05
Mulligan3476100.240.06

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland232,0701400.440.13
Boyce7631130.360.20
Grant7711130.180.17
Lowry10733010.110.23

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.