Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Aberdeen 0–3 St. Mirren

Saturday 30 December 2023, 15:00 · Pittodrie Stadium · Round 21 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Grant Irvine · Attendance 17,029

St. Mirren O'Hara 12', Ayunga 78', Kiltie 90+3' (pen)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

AberdeenSt. Mirren
Goals03
xG1.032.73
Non-penalty xG1.031.15
Expected Points0.332.53

Aberdeen 6%Draw 14%St. Mirren 80%

Most likely score 1–3, 14%. Final score 0–3, 12%.

St. Mirren goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+3%6%1%4%7%2%2%7%7%3%2%2%1%10%12%12%14%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTPolvara on for Shinnie and Morris on for Jensen, 60'Milne on for Devlin, 61'Sokler on for Duk, 71'Hayes on for McGarry, 81'Boyd-Munce on for O'Hara, 59'Ayunga on for Mandron and Olusanya on for Jamieson, 64'O'Hara 12'Ayunga 78'Kiltie 90+3' (pen)St. Mirren 2.73Aberdeen 1.0301230153045607590HTPolvara on for Shinnie and Morris on for Jensen, 60'Milne on for Devlin, 61'Sokler on for Duk, 71'Hayes on for McGarry, 81'Boyd-Munce on for O'Hara, 59'Ayunga on for Mandron and Olusanya on for Jamieson, 64'O'Hara 12'Ayunga 78'Kiltie 90+3' (pen)2.731.03AberdeenSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

AberdeenSt. Mirren

1.03 −0.34xG2.73 +1.78
1.03Non-penalty xG1.15
0.56 −0.72xG on target2.40 +1.29
19 +8Shots10 0
3 −0.8Shots on target5 +1.6
0 −1.8Big chances3 +1.2
35 +13Touches in the opposition box27 +10
67% +20Possession33% −12
551 +191Passes278 −58
80% +14Pass accuracy66% +1
72% +28Field tilt28% −15
46 +16Final-third entries21 −12
14 +3.8Box entries13 +4.4
11.1 −4Passes per defensive action21.5 +5
13 +8.8Corners2 −2.8
18 +1Tackles23 +9
5 −2.9Interceptions8 −0.1
16 −9Clearances39 +16
2 −1.2Saves3 0.0
9 −2Fouls11 0
2 +1.0Offsides0 −1.7

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Aberdeen

Duk 29', 0.21 xGMiovski 57', 0.11 xGDuk 70', 0.11 xGRubezic 29', 0.08 xGRubezic 54', 0.05 xGMcGarry 54', 0.05 xGRubezic 55', 0.05 xGRubezic 89', 0.05 xGPolvara 71', 0.04 xGMiovski 23', 0.03 xGMiovski 29', 0.03 xGClarkson 32', 0.03 xGClarkson 41', 0.03 xGDuk 68', 0.03 xGPolvara 70', 0.03 xGMcGrath 76', 0.03 xGMcGarry 23', 0.02 xGMiovski 45+2', 0.02 xGMorris 90+6', 0.02 xG20%0.21 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.21 xG, 0 goals58%0.60 xGCentral box: 10 shots, 0.60 xG, 0 goals11%0.11 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals11%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Jamieson 52', 0.19 xGOlusanya 73', 0.13 xGMandron 12', 0.11 xGJamieson 18', 0.07 xGJamieson 26', 0.02 xGGogic 36', 0.02 xGAyunga 78', 0.50 xG, goalO'Hara 12', 0.12 xG, goal43%0.50 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.50 xG, 1 goal49%0.56 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.56 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals8%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

AberdeenSt. Mirren

0.40 10 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.93 5 shots, 2 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.19 1 shot, 0 goals
0.63 9 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.03 2 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties1.58 2 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
12 min (12%) · Aberdeen 0.00, St. Mirren 0.23 xG
St. Mirren ahead
86 min (88%) · Aberdeen 1.03, St. Mirren 2.50 xG

Line-ups

2463352710415911RoosGartenmannRubezicJensenDevlinMcGrathClarksonShinnieMcGarryMiovskiDukYellow card60'61'60'81'71'Aberdeen 3-5-2Barry Robson1213522176324119HemmingBoltonGogicTaylorFraserBaccusO'HaraTanserJamiesonKiltieMandronGoalGoal59'64'64'St. Mirren 3-4-2-1Stephen Robinson

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 60' Polvara for Shinnie
  • 60' Morris for Jensen
  • 61' Milne for Devlin
  • 71' Sokler for Duk
  • 81' Hayes for McGarry

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 59' Boyd-Munce for O'Hara
  • 64' Ayunga for Mandron · goal 78'
  • 64' Olusanya for Jamieson

Players

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RoosGK900.000.0000.0201
GartenmannCB900.000.1010.27154
RubezicCB900.220.0200.0738
JensenCB600.000.0000.0107
Devlin RWB610.000.0100.0352
McGrathCM900.030.060−0.0225
ClarksonCM900.060.5380.1456
ShinnieCM600.000.0910.0013
McGarryLWB810.070.0420.0053
MiovskiST900.200.0000.0010
DukST710.350.0400.0132
PolvaraMF300.070.0000.0220
MorrisFW300.020.0710.0620
MilneDF290.000.0100.0890
SoklerFW190.000.0000.0011
HayesDF90.000.0000.0000

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HemmingGK900.000.0000.0541
BoltonCB900.000.1510.09214
GogicCB900.020.0000.02312
TaylorCB900.000.0000.00018
FraserRWB900.000.0000.0556
BaccusCM900.000.0100.0129
O'HaraCM5910.910.010−0.0103
TanserLWB9010.000.4410.3463
JamiesonAM640.280.1800.1351
KiltieAM9010.790.2220.2184
MandronST640.110.0310.0006
Boyd-MunceMF310.000.0200.0112
AyungaFW2610.500.0710.0931
OlusanyaFW260.130.0000.0110

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Aberdeen

Gartenmann and Shinnie: 4 passesJensen and Shinnie: 4 passesRubezic and McGrath: 4 passesRoos and Devlin: 5 passesRoos and Clarkson: 5 passesClarkson and Miovski: 5 passesClarkson and Duk: 5 passesRubezic and Shinnie: 6 passesDevlin and McGrath: 8 passesDevlin and Clarkson: 8 passesMcGrath and Clarkson: 9 passesRoos and Jensen: 10 passesClarkson and Shinnie: 10 passesRubezic and Clarkson: 11 passesMcGarry and Shinnie: 11 passesJensen and McGarry: 12 passesJensen and Clarkson: 12 passesRoos and Gartenmann: 13 passesMcGarry and Clarkson: 14 passesJensen and Rubezic: 15 passesGartenmann and McGrath: 18 passesGartenmann and Devlin: 21 passesGartenmann and Rubezic: 22 passesGartenmann and Clarkson: 23 passesRoos: 23 completed passesGartenmann: 55 completed passesJensen: 30 completed passesRubezic: 35 completed passesDevlin: 23 completed passesMcGarry: 27 completed passesMcGrath: 21 completed passesClarkson: 48 completed passesShinnie: 21 completed passesMiovski: 6 completed passesDuk: 3 completed passes2465332157104911RoosGartenmannJensenRubezicDevlinMcGarryMcGrathClarksonShinnieMiovskiDukStarters until 60' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

St. Mirren

Hemming and Fraser: 3 passesHemming and Mandron: 3 passesGogic and Baccus: 3 passesGogic and Kiltie: 3 passesTaylor and Bolton: 3 passesTaylor and Kiltie: 3 passesFraser and Mandron: 3 passesTanser and Kiltie: 4 passesO'Hara and Jamieson: 4 passesJamieson and Kiltie: 4 passesBaccus and Kiltie: 5 passesJamieson and Mandron: 5 passesTaylor and Tanser: 6 passesBaccus and O'Hara: 6 passesGogic and Tanser: 7 passesBolton and Jamieson: 7 passesFraser and O'Hara: 7 passesFraser and Jamieson: 7 passesGogic and Taylor: 8 passesTaylor and Baccus: 8 passesBolton and Fraser: 8 passesTanser and Baccus: 8 passesGogic and Bolton: 10 passesKiltie and Mandron: 10 passesHemming: 8 completed passesGogic: 18 completed passesTaylor: 18 completed passesBolton: 18 completed passesFraser: 18 completed passesTanser: 16 completed passesBaccus: 20 completed passesO'Hara: 14 completed passesJamieson: 13 completed passesKiltie: 16 completed passesMandron: 6 completed passes1135222317624119HemmingGogicTaylorBoltonFraserTanserBaccusO'HaraJamiesonKiltieMandronStarters until 59' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
RubezicGartenmann23
GartenmannMilne18
ClarksonGartenmann17
GartenmannClarkson15
ClarksonRubezic14

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
KiltieMandron7
BaccusKiltie7
BoltonGogic6
TaylorGogic5
BoltonFraser5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Aberdeen

2−3.24−4.410+2.81−3.75−2.14−2.29−0.57−1.48+1.96−0.66+2.42−3.67+1.24−0.62−0.91−1.14−0.44−0.92−0.53+1.40−0.70−1.61−1.61−0.20−0.30−0.40−0.21+0.511−5.54−4.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 16 matches

St. Mirren

5−0.27+0.124+9.922+14.511+5.23−5.15−2.67+2.814+5.610+2.59+2.82−3.06+3.13−3.88+1.75+1.12−0.93+0.42−1.03−0.84+1.84+2.01+0.21−0.40−2.31−0.10−0.21+0.10−0.30−1.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 20 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Aberdeen

0.030.040.020.010.020.010.010.020.020.010.010.04−0.01−0.010.030.010.04−0.03−0.050.010.040.130.160.12LessMore

St. Mirren

0.010.030.010.010.010.030.040.010.020.020.010.070.01−0.01−0.010.040.080.080.030.080.060.05−0.050.030.070.26LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.26AttackAberdeen1.20 → 1.17St. Mirren1.00 → 1.06Defence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.32 → 1.37St. Mirren1.38 → 1.34

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Aberdeen
Top six62%44%−18
11th2%5%+3
Bottom1%1%0
St. Mirren
Top six35%54%+19
11th4%1%−3
Bottom1%1%0

From the forecast before the match (30 December 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

AberdeenSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.580.94
Win52%22%
Expected Points1.820.92
Clean sheet39%21%

Aberdeen 52%Draw 26%St. Mirren 22%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 49%.

St. Mirren goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+9%7%4%1%6%2%4%1%5%5%2%2%2%12%13%10%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 30 December 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowAberdeen winDrawSt. Mirren win
Aberdeen
Top six62%72%56%44%
11th2%1%3%5%
Bottom1%<1%1%1%
St. Mirren
Top six35%25%37%54%
11th4%5%4%1%
Bottom1%2%1%1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Aberdeen

  1. W2–120 DecLivingston (H)xG 1.00–1.53
  2. W2–19 DecHearts (H)xG 1.74–0.33
  3. L0–16 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 1.14–0.64
  4. L0–23 DecHibernian (A)xG 3.86–1.73
  5. D1–126 NovRangers (H)xG 0.60–2.64
  6. L0–612 NovCeltic (A)xG 0.18–4.67

St. Mirren

  1. L0–127 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 0.46–0.81
  2. L0–223 DecHearts (A)xG 0.64–1.20
  3. D0–016 DecMotherwell (H)xG 1.25–1.00
  4. W2–09 DecRoss County (H)xG 0.94–0.62
  5. L0–16 DecSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.93–1.98
  6. L0–23 DecRangers (A)xG 0.14–1.75

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

AberdeenSt. Mirren
Position8th5th
Played1620
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠4–⁠77–⁠5–⁠8
Points19 (1.19 per game)26 (1.30 per game)
Expected Points per game1.241.09
Goals19–⁠2621–⁠25
xG per game1.37–⁠1.670.95–⁠1.40
Home: points, xG per game1.38, 1.45–⁠1.311.80, 1.15–⁠1.11
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.29–⁠2.020.80, 0.76–⁠1.69
ManagerBarry Robson (31)Stephen Robinson (15)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.26AttackAberdeen1.20, 4thSt. Mirren1.00, 9thDefence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.32, 5thSt. Mirren1.38, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecAberdeen attack: 1.20St. Mirren attack: 1.001.201.00St. MirrenAberdeenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecAberdeen defence: 1.32St. Mirren defence: 1.381.381.32

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

AberdeenSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−7%+22%−32%−5%
Counter-attacks+92%−8%−10%+35%
Set pieces+12%+44%−45%−11%
Penalties−28%+9%+16%+74%
Headers−8%+67%−10%−14%
Left side−8%+12%−43%average
Centre+22%+45%−36%+7%
Right side−16%average−21%−33%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−8%−33%Centre+22%+7%Right side−16%averageOpen play−7%−5%Counter-attacks+92%+35%Set pieces+12%−11%Headers−8%−14%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdAberdeen concededLeft side−43%averageCentre−36%+45%Right side−21%+12%Open play−32%+22%Counter-attacks−10%−8%Set pieces−45%+44%Headers−10%+67%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

AberdeenSt. Mirren

1.37xG0.95
1.67xG against1.40
47%Possession46%
11.1Shots10.0
13.4Shots against12.0
3.8Shots on target3.4
1.8Big chances1.8
22.2Touches in the opposition box16.8
360Passes336
66%Pass accuracy65%
4.2Corners4.8
44%Field tilt43%
30.1Final-third entries33.1
10.2Box entries8.6
14.8Passes per defensive action16.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.001.30
Ahead191.902.16
Behind271.611.92

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level480.871.31
Ahead221.061.55
Behind201.041.43

xG by period

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.241–3
16–300.170.343–5
31–450.330.175–1
46–600.170.223–1
61–750.240.244–5
76–900.350.463–11

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.084–1
16–300.100.231–5
31–450.120.254–4
46–600.240.196–2
61–750.160.231–5
76–900.170.425–8

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Aberdeen

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTRoos 16Gartenmann 12Devlin 3Rubezic 13MacDonald 4Jensen 13MacKenzie 3Devlin 13Morris 2Milne 1Clarkson 10Barron 4Polvara 1Shinnie 16McGarry 5Hayes 5MacKenzie 4McGrath 7Polvara 6Clarkson 2Miovski 15Sokler 3Duk 10McGrath 3Hayes 13-4-1-2 in 9 of 16 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (9), 5-4-1 (3), 3-5-2 (2), 5-3-2 (2)

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWHemming 20Fraser 19Bolton 1Gogic 20Taylor 17Dunne 3Strain 11Small 3Flynn 3Baccus 11Greive 1Jamieson 1O'Hara 11Boyd-Munce 10Kiltie 5Tanser 17O'Hara 2Boyd-Munce 1McMenamin 12Tanser 3O'Hara 3Olusanya 7Mandron 7Ayunga 4Kiltie 15Ayunga 3Greive 13-4-3 in 9 of 20 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (9), 3-5-2 (5), 3-4-2-1 (5), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
27 August 2023St. Mirren2–2AberdeenxG 1.97–0.87
24 May 2023Aberdeen3–0St. MirrenxG 1.53–0.70
1 February 2023Aberdeen1–3St. MirrenxG 0.94–2.21
24 December 2022St. Mirren3–1AberdeenxG 3.27–0.98
6 August 2022Aberdeen4–1St. MirrenxG 3.37–0.93
15 May 2022Aberdeen0–0St. MirrenxG 1.16–0.37

12 league meetings since 2020/21: Aberdeen won 4, St. Mirren won 4, and 4 were drawn. Goals 20–16 and xG 1.39–1.31 per game.

Key players

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miovski161,348810.470.12
McGrath11902410.340.17
Duk10911240.270.16
Clarkson121,173110.070.24

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Mandron8766310.280.07
Olusanya7730110.250.06
Kiltie201,581230.170.11
O'Hara161,423210.180.06

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.