Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Aberdeen 1–3 St. Mirren

Wednesday 1 February 2023, 19:45 · Pittodrie Stadium · Round 24 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Grant Irvine · Attendance 13,014

Aberdeen Miovski 74' (pen) · McCrorie sent off 7'

St. Mirren Main 57', 81', Gallagher 90'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

AberdeenSt. Mirren
Goals13
xG0.942.21
Non-penalty xG0.152.21
Expected Points0.492.27

Aberdeen 9%Draw 23%St. Mirren 68%

Most likely score 1–2, 21%. Final score 1–3, 15%.

St. Mirren goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+1%4%6%4%2%5%7%2%3%4%2%1%18%21%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTMcCrorie (Aberdeen), red card 7'Markanday on for Duk and Watkins on for Clarkson, 83'Gallagher on for Dunne, 46'Watt on for Greive, 72'Small on for Tanser, 76'Flynn on for Kiltie, 90'Miovski 74' (pen)Main 57'Main 81'Gallagher 90'St. Mirren 2.21Aberdeen 0.9401230153045607590HTMcCrorie (Aberdeen), red card 7'Markanday on for Duk and Watkins on for Clarkson, 83'Gallagher on for Dunne, 46'Watt on for Greive, 72'Small on for Tanser, 76'Flynn on for Kiltie, 90'Miovski 74' (pen)Main 57'Main 81'Gallagher 90'2.210.94AberdeenSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

AberdeenSt. Mirren

0.94 −0.41xG2.21 +1.16
0.15Non-penalty xG2.21
1.02 −0.40xG on target1.16 +0.19
6 −6Shots22 +11
2 −2.0Shots on target6 +3.0
1 −1.0Big chances1 −0.7
7 −14Touches in the opposition box43 +26
28% −22Possession72% +36
219 −155Passes540 +282
48% −25Pass accuracy82% +20
11% −29Field tilt89% +53
15 −22Final-third entries72 +42
3 −7.3Box entries26 +17.4
22.0 +6Passes per defensive action9.6 −8
2 −3.3Corners11 +5.4
16 +3Tackles16 +1
7 −1.4Interceptions4 −5.9
42 +20Clearances15 −8
3 0.0Saves1 −1.4
11 +1Fouls11 −3
1 −0.2Offsides0 −1.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Aberdeen

McCrorie 3', 0.04 xGDuk 35', 0.04 xGDuk 59', 0.03 xGKennedy 32', 0.02 xGRamadani 38', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals50%0.08 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals50%0.08 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Main 38', 0.64 xGGreive 45+5', 0.17 xGGreive 25', 0.14 xGStrain 89', 0.12 xGGreive 70', 0.10 xGO'Hara 28', 0.09 xGO'Hara 62', 0.08 xGStrain 70', 0.08 xGMain 63', 0.07 xGKiltie 70', 0.07 xGO'Hara 45+3', 0.06 xGO'Hara 9', 0.04 xGMain 27', 0.04 xGGreive 51', 0.04 xGO'Hara 70', 0.04 xGBaccus 14', 0.03 xGMain 62', 0.03 xGBaccus 67', 0.03 xGMain 45+4', 0.01 xGMain 57', 0.15 xG, goalMain 81', 0.10 xG, goalGallagher 90', 0.10 xG, goal43%0.95 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.95 xG, 1 goal37%0.82 xGCentral box: 10 shots, 0.82 xG, 2 goals12%0.27 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.27 xG, 0 goals8%0.17 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

AberdeenSt. Mirren

0.09 3 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.88 17 shots, 1 goal
0.06 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.33 5 shots, 2 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
69 min (72%) · Aberdeen 0.12, St. Mirren 1.50 xG
St. Mirren ahead
27 min (28%) · Aberdeen 0.82, St. Mirren 0.71 xG

Line-ups

122718176163320119LewisMcCrorieMacDonaldPollockHayesShinnieRamadaniKennedyClarksonDukMiovskiSent offYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoal83'83'Aberdeen 4-2-3-1Barry Robson1232213183176112110CarsonStrainFraserGogicDunneTanserBaccusO'HaraKiltieGreiveMainYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoal46'76'90'72'St. Mirren 5-3-2Stephen Robinson

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 83' Markanday for Duk
  • 83' Watkins for Clarkson

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 46' Gallagher for Dunne · goal 90'
  • 72' Watt for Greive
  • 76' Small for Tanser · 1 assist
  • 90' Flynn for Kiltie

Players

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LewisGK900.000.0000.0110
McCrorie RB70.040.0000.0110
MacDonald CB900.000.0000.01116
Pollock CB900.000.0000.02212
HayesLB900.000.0520.0428
ShinnieDM900.000.1800.14311
Ramadani DM900.020.0000.0016
KennedyRW900.020.0000.00311
ClarksonAM830.000.0100.0134
Duk LW830.070.0000.0972
MiovskiST9010.790.0110.0114
MarkandayFW70.000.0000.0001
WatkinsFW70.000.000−0.0100

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
CarsonGK900.000.0000.0331
StrainRWB9010.190.2010.33102
FraserCB900.000.1520.26135
GogicCB900.000.0210.1031
Dunne CB460.000.0100.0763
TanserLWB760.000.2030.28106
BaccusCM9010.070.2520.1576
O'HaraCM900.310.7020.1464
KiltieCM900.070.1310.0641
Greive ST720.440.001−0.1031
MainST9021.030.1110.0432
GallagherDF4410.100.0100.0113
WattFW180.000.0000.0000
SmallFW1410.000.0810.0221
FlynnMF00.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Carson and Strain: 3 passesCarson and Tanser: 3 passesStrain and Dunne: 3 passesStrain and Tanser: 3 passesGogic and Baccus: 3 passesBaccus and Greive: 3 passesCarson and Dunne: 4 passesGogic and Tanser: 4 passesTanser and Main: 4 passesBaccus and Kiltie: 4 passesO'Hara and Main: 4 passesStrain and Gogic: 5 passesDunne and Fraser: 8 passesDunne and Baccus: 8 passesBaccus and O'Hara: 8 passesStrain and Baccus: 9 passesFraser and Baccus: 9 passesTanser and Baccus: 9 passesTanser and O'Hara: 9 passesStrain and Kiltie: 12 passesFraser and Kiltie: 13 passesDunne and Tanser: 16 passesGogic and Fraser: 20 passesStrain and Fraser: 21 passesGogic and Dunne: 22 passesCarson: 9 completed passesStrain: 29 completed passesGogic: 29 completed passesDunne: 35 completed passesFraser: 42 completed passesTanser: 24 completed passesBaccus: 30 completed passesKiltie: 16 completed passesO'Hara: 13 completed passesGreive: 3 completed passesMain: 5 completed passes1231318223171162110CarsonStrainGogicDunneFraserTanserBaccusKiltieO'HaraGreiveMainStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
ShinnieHayes6
HayesPollock5
PollockHayes4
KennedyDuk4
KennedyMiovski4

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
FraserStrain26
GogicFraser23
FraserGogic13
GogicDunne13
GogicTanser13

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Aberdeen

8+3.413+6.733+16.320+11.412+6.310+4.411+4.95−0.95−1.610+3.02−3.14−0.83−0.55−0.37+0.65+1.52−2.51−1.640.04+0.30−1.41−0.310.01−0.32+0.10−0.71+0.80−0.50−0.20−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 23 matches

St. Mirren

1−4.02−6.08−5.73−0.95−4.49+2.42−3.011+4.55−1.69+2.811+6.42−1.06+1.811+4.58+4.45+1.22−0.43−0.53−0.54+1.20−1.92+1.15+3.13+0.82+0.91+0.20−0.90−0.60−0.81−7.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 22 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Aberdeen

0.010.010.010.010.010.020.04−0.010.030.010.01−0.010.020.05−0.010.01−0.020.17LessMore

St. Mirren

0.020.020.020.020.020.010.020.070.020.060.060.040.050.060.010.090.110.050.02−0.220.090.140.160.160.120.17LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.23AttackAberdeen1.09 → 1.07St. Mirren0.96 → 1.00Defence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.36 → 1.40St. Mirren1.34 → 1.30

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Aberdeen
Top six59%36%−23
11th1%2%+1
St. Mirren
Top six58%81%+23
11th1%<1%−1

From the forecast before the match (1 February 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

AberdeenSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.450.95
Win48%24%
Expected Points1.721.00
Clean sheet39%23%

Aberdeen 48%Draw 28%St. Mirren 24%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 48%.

St. Mirren goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+8%4%1%6%2%9%4%1%5%4%2%2%2%10%13%13%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 1 February 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowAberdeen winDrawSt. Mirren win
Aberdeen
Top six59%73%53%36%
11th1%<1%1%2%
St. Mirren
Top six58%45%60%81%
11th1%2%1%<1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Aberdeen

  1. L0–628 JanHibernian (A)xG 0.52–2.60
  2. L0–518 JanHearts (A)xG 1.02–3.54
  3. W2–07 JanSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.10–0.51
  4. D0–02 JanRoss County (H)xG 2.08–0.44
  5. L1–228 DecKilmarnock (A)xG 0.42–1.91
  6. L1–324 DecSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.98–3.27

St. Mirren

  1. W1–028 JanMotherwell (H)xG 0.60–0.40
  2. L0–418 JanCeltic (A)xG 0.53–2.25
  3. L0–113 JanHearts (A)xG 1.41–1.68
  4. D1–17 JanHearts (H)xG 0.66–0.99
  5. D0–02 JanKilmarnock (A)xG 0.35–0.70
  6. D1–128 DecLivingston (A)xG 1.36–1.59

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

AberdeenSt. Mirren
Position7th6th
Played2322
Won, drawn, lost9–⁠2–⁠128–⁠6–⁠8
Points29 (1.26 per game)30 (1.36 per game)
Expected Points per game1.231.09
Goals35–⁠4323–⁠31
xG per game1.35–⁠1.701.05–⁠1.41
Home: points, xG per game2.00, 1.77–⁠1.162.08, 1.17–⁠1.01
Away: points, xG per game0.58, 0.96–⁠2.200.50, 0.90–⁠1.88
ManagerBarry Robson (0)Stephen Robinson (15)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.23AttackAberdeen1.09, 5thSt. Mirren0.96, 8thDefence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.36, 8thSt. Mirren1.34, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanAberdeen attack: 1.09St. Mirren attack: 0.961.090.96St. MirrenAberdeenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanAberdeen defence: 1.36St. Mirren defence: 1.341.361.34

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

AberdeenSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−4%+9%−32%−2%
Counter-attacks+31%+28%+4%+2%
Set pieces−20%+43%+6%−2%
Penalties+73%+117%−9%+81%
Headers+16%+13%+17%+6%
Left side−19%+34%−15%+10%
Centre−11%+6%−29%−5%
Right side+11%+22%−14%−11%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−19%−11%Centre−11%−5%Right side+11%+10%Open play−4%−2%Counter-attacks+31%+2%Set pieces−20%−2%Headers+16%+6%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdAberdeen concededLeft side−15%+22%Centre−29%+6%Right side−14%+34%Open play−32%+9%Counter-attacks+4%+28%Set pieces+6%+43%Headers+17%+13%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

AberdeenSt. Mirren

1.35xG1.05
1.70xG against1.41
50%Possession36%
12.2Shots11.4
14.4Shots against12.3
4.0Shots on target3.0
2.0Big chances1.7
21.3Touches in the opposition box17.3
374Passes258
73%Pass accuracy62%
5.3Corners5.6
40%Field tilt36%
37.1Final-third entries30.4
10.3Box entries8.6
16.2Passes per defensive action17.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.231.62
Ahead231.671.24
Behind281.232.22

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.001.33
Ahead221.171.24
Behind241.031.72

xG by period

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.243–6
16–300.180.224–5
31–450.340.308–10
46–600.240.266–6
61–750.220.327–7
76–900.260.357–9

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.183–4
16–300.120.201–4
31–450.190.296–6
46–600.210.236–6
61–750.180.182–4
76–900.250.325–7

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Aberdeen

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTRoos 21Lewis 2McCrorie 13Richardson 9Kennedy 1Stewart 21Scales 19McCrorie 4MacKenzie 2Coulson 11Duk 10Scales 1Ramadani 20Richardson 3Barron 7McCrorie 6Clarkson 5Kennedy 10Besuijen 4Barron 3Clarkson 6Coulson 5Besuijen 5Hayes 9Clarkson 6Duk 4Miovski 234-2-3-1 in 10 of 23 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (10), 3-5-2 (7), 3-1-4-2 (3), 4-4-2 (3)

St. Mirren

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTCarson 22Strain 19Fraser 2Flynn 1Fraser 15Gogic 6Gallagher 17Shaughne… 6ShaughnessyDunne 21R. Taylor 1Tanser 12Tait 7O'Hara 2Baccus 19Tanser 2Erhahon 20O'Hara 16Kiltie 6Gogic 3Ayunga 16Greive 6Kiltie 1Main 20Brophy 15-3-2 in 20 of 22 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (20), 3-5-2 (2)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
24 December 2022St. Mirren3–1AberdeenxG 3.27–0.98
6 August 2022Aberdeen4–1St. MirrenxG 3.37–0.93
15 May 2022Aberdeen0–0St. MirrenxG 1.16–0.37
25 January 2022St. Mirren1–0AberdeenxG 0.13–0.47
4 December 2021Aberdeen4–1St. MirrenxG 4.40–0.95
26 September 2021St. Mirren3–2AberdeenxG 1.50–1.11

9 league meetings since 2020/21: Aberdeen won 3, St. Mirren won 3, and 3 were drawn. Goals 14–11 and xG 1.48–1.21 per game.

Key players

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miovski231,8371100.590.03
Besuijen9897310.230.18
Duk151,363920.310.05
Kennedy12961210.120.21

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ayunga161,288320.420.04
Greive6599300.420.03
Main201,668400.200.08
Strain191,561230.050.18

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.