Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

St. Mirren 3–1 Aberdeen

Saturday 24 December 2022, 12:30 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 18 · Half-time 1–1 · Referee Nick Walsh · Attendance 7,394

St. Mirren Roos 38' (og), O'Hara 53' (pen), Kiltie 90+5'

Aberdeen Kennedy 9' · Stewart sent off 35'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenAberdeen
Goals31
xG3.270.98
Non-penalty xG0.910.98
Expected Points2.780.14

St. Mirren 90%Draw 8%Aberdeen 2%

Most likely score 3–1, 18%. Final score 3–1, 18%.

Aberdeen goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+1%2%5%9%4%10%7%1%7%5%3%5%2%1%18%13%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

012340153045607590HTStewart (Aberdeen), red card 35'Kiltie on for Erhahon, 46'Brophy on for Main, 84'Gogic on for Ayunga, 90'Duncan on for Clarkson and MacKenzie on for Duk, 46'Ramirez on for Coulson, 66'Roos 38' (og)O'Hara 53' (pen)Kiltie 90+5'Kennedy 9'St. Mirren 3.27Aberdeen 0.98012340153045607590HTStewart (Aberdeen), red card 35'Kiltie on for Erhahon, 46'Brophy on for Main, 84'Gogic on for Ayunga, 90'Duncan on for Clarkson and MacKenzie on for Duk, 46'Ramirez on for Coulson, 66'Roos 38' (og)O'Hara 53' (pen)Kiltie 90+5'Kennedy 9'3.270.98St. MirrenAberdeen

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenAberdeen

3.27 +2.28xG0.98 −0.48
0.91Non-penalty xG0.98
2.41 +1.42xG on target0.84 −0.79
16 +5Shots11 −1
4 +1.0Shots on target5 +0.9
6 +4.3Big chances1 −1.5
30 +15Touches in the opposition box17 −3
33% −4Possession67% +20
219 −45Passes469 +106
69% +8Pass accuracy83% +10
52% +16Field tilt48% +9
29 −1Final-third entries30 −7
7 −1.9Box entries6 −4.1
15.5 −2Passes per defensive action20.9 +5
8 +2.0Corners5 +0.7
18 +3Tackles15 +1
10 +0.5Interceptions8 −0.9
21 −1Clearances21 −4
4 +1.7Saves2 −1.6
16 +2.3Fouls8 −1.9
1 −0.1Offsides0 −1.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Gallagher 73', 0.12 xGAyunga 44', 0.11 xGGallagher 8', 0.07 xGAyunga 35', 0.07 xGErhahon 24', 0.06 xGStrain 56', 0.06 xGFraser 1', 0.05 xGMain 23', 0.05 xGBaccus 23', 0.05 xGKiltie 46', 0.03 xGO'Hara 77', 0.02 xGBaccus 69', 0.01 xGKiltie 90+5', 0.21 xG, goal33%0.30 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.30 xG, 0 goals32%0.29 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.29 xG, 0 goals5%0.05 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals5%0.05 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals24%0.22 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.22 xG, 1 goal

Aberdeen

Duncan 85', 0.57 xGRamadani 75', 0.09 xGMacKenzie 82', 0.08 xGDuncan 55', 0.04 xGKennedy 90+4', 0.04 xGRoos 90+5', 0.04 xGKennedy 9', 0.03 xGCoulson 33', 0.02 xGMacKenzie 82', 0.02 xGCoulson 13', 0.01 xGKennedy 9', 0.04 xG, goal57%0.56 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.56 xG, 0 goals13%0.13 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals15%0.15 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals7%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 1 goal7%0.07 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenAberdeen

0.56 9 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.25 7 shots, 1 goal
0.35 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.74 4 shots, 0 goals
2.37 3 shots, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
24 min (25%) · St. Mirren 1.84, Aberdeen 0.07 xG
St. Mirren ahead
43 min (45%) · St. Mirren 1.21, Aberdeen 0.88 xG
Aberdeen ahead
29 min (30%) · St. Mirren 0.22, Aberdeen 0.03 xG

Line-ups

123223118317166710CarsonStrainFraserGallagherDunneTanserBaccusErhahonO'HaraAyungaMainYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoal46'90'84'St. Mirren 5-3-2Stephen Robinson24254338162022911RoosMcCrorieStewartScalesKennedyBarronRamadaniClarksonCoulsonMiovskiDukOwn goalYellow cardSent offGoal46'66'46'Aberdeen 3-5-2Jim Goodwin

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 46' Kiltie for Erhahon · goal 90+5'
  • 84' Brophy for Main
  • 90' Gogic for Ayunga · yellow card 90+2'

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 46' MacKenzie for Duk
  • 46' Duncan for Clarkson
  • 66' Ramirez for Coulson

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
CarsonGK900.000.0000.0550
Strain RWB900.060.1120.1058
FraserCB900.050.0000.0204
GallagherCB900.180.0600.0539
DunneCB900.000.0100.0532
TanserLWB900.000.0100.0654
Baccus CM900.060.0320.0626
Erhahon CM460.060.061−0.0120
O'HaraCM9011.600.0100.0039
AyungaST900.970.0110.0634
MainST840.050.2120.3101
KiltieFW4410.240.0100.0322
BrophyFW60.000.0000.0000
Gogic DF00.000.0000.0001

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RoosGK900.040.000−0.0831
McCrorie CB900.000.211−0.0878
Stewart CB350.000.0000.0215
ScalesCB900.000.0110.06812
KennedyRWB9010.110.5420.11122
BarronCM9010.000.0620.0424
RamadaniCM900.090.0220.0459
ClarksonCM460.000.0000.0022
CoulsonLWB660.030.0010.0333
MiovskiST900.000.010−0.0301
DukST460.000.000−0.0100
MacKenzieDF440.100.0000.0222
DuncanFW440.610.0200.0010
RamirezFW240.000.010−0.0100

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Strain and Fraser: 3 passesDunne and Tanser: 3 passesGallagher and Tanser: 3 passesGallagher and Main: 3 passesGallagher and Erhahon: 4 passesTanser and Erhahon: 4 passesBaccus and O'Hara: 4 passesO'Hara and Erhahon: 5 passesBaccus and Erhahon: 6 passesTanser and O'Hara: 8 passesStrain and Baccus: 12 passesCarson: 7 completed passesStrain: 12 completed passesDunne: 5 completed passesFraser: 6 completed passesGallagher: 9 completed passesTanser: 9 completed passesBaccus: 11 completed passesO'Hara: 15 completed passesErhahon: 16 completed passesAyunga: 1 completed passesMain: 2 completed passes123182231317616710CarsonStrainDunneFraserGallagherTanserBaccusO'HaraErhahonAyungaMainStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Aberdeen

Roos and Coulson: 4 passesScales and Clarkson: 4 passesMcCrorie and Ramadani: 4 passesRoos and Scales: 5 passesRoos and Stewart: 5 passesKennedy and Clarkson: 5 passesCoulson and Clarkson: 5 passesMcCrorie and Barron: 6 passesCoulson and Ramadani: 6 passesClarkson and Ramadani: 6 passesRoos and McCrorie: 7 passesBarron and Ramadani: 7 passesStewart and Ramadani: 8 passesScales and Ramadani: 9 passesKennedy and Barron: 10 passesKennedy and Ramadani: 10 passesScales and Coulson: 11 passesScales and Stewart: 15 passesMcCrorie and Kennedy: 20 passesStewart and McCrorie: 26 passesRoos: 15 completed passesScales: 27 completed passesStewart: 31 completed passesMcCrorie: 36 completed passesKennedy: 25 completed passesCoulson: 13 completed passesClarkson: 10 completed passesBarron: 16 completed passesRamadani: 31 completed passesMiovski: 4 completed passesDuk: 5 completed passes24452332220816911RoosScalesStewartMcCrorieKennedyCoulsonClarksonBarronRamadaniMiovskiDukStarters until 35' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
O'HaraTanser9
BaccusStrain7
StrainBaccus7
O'HaraBaccus7
FraserStrain7

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
McCrorieKennedy20
KennedyMcCrorie18
McCrorieStewart14
BarronKennedy14
KennedyBarron13

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

3−1.85−2.411−2.42−1.810+0.85−2.77+2.16−0.15−2.06−0.28+3.82−1.14−0.36+0.18+4.45+1.53+0.77+3.96+2.83+0.52+0.20−0.74+2.42+0.11−0.30−0.610.00−0.72+1.14−4.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 15 matches

Aberdeen

6+1.56−0.719+1.113+3.55−1.26+0.46−0.14−2.35−1.77+1.13−1.73−0.44−0.33−2.71−2.64−0.54+1.23−1.02−1.40−1.40−1.60−0.80−1.31−1.00−0.81+0.80−0.50−0.10−0.72−2.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 17 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.010.030.010.020.010.020.020.040.040.040.050.020.020.010.030.05−0.010.070.01−0.010.31LessMore

Aberdeen

0.010.020.030.020.020.020.020.030.010.040.020.020.010.040.01−0.27−0.010.07LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.23AttackSt. Mirren0.94 → 1.00Aberdeen1.18 → 1.15Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.41 → 1.36Aberdeen1.23 → 1.29

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six28%38%+10
11th9%5%−4
Bottom4%2%−2
Aberdeen
Top six88%82%−6

From the forecast before the match (24 December 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenAberdeen
Expected goals1.131.22
Win33%38%
Expected Points1.291.42
Clean sheet30%32%

St. Mirren 33%Draw 29%Aberdeen 38%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 48%.

Aberdeen goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+7%3%8%3%1%6%7%5%2%2%3%2%10%11%10%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 24 December 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawAberdeen win
St. Mirren
Top six28%38%26%20%
11th9%5%9%12%
Bottom4%2%3%5%
Aberdeen
Top six88%82%88%94%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. D1–112 NovRangers (H)xG 1.10–1.85
  2. D2–29 NovSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.87–1.19
  3. L2–35 NovRoss County (A)xG 0.59–1.14
  4. L0–329 OctHibernian (A)xG 0.82–1.87
  5. W2–122 OctDundee United (H)xG 1.29–0.70
  6. D0–015 OctKilmarnock (H)xG 0.68–1.13

Aberdeen

  1. L2–320 DecRangers (H)xG 0.54–1.58
  2. L0–117 DecCeltic (H)xG 0.06–2.36
  3. W1–012 NovDundee United (H)xG 1.18–0.32
  4. L1–28 NovLivingston (A)xG 3.34–1.29
  5. W4–14 NovHibernian (H)xG 1.69–1.50
  6. L1–429 OctRangers (A)xG 0.42–4.47

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenAberdeen
Position7th3rd
Played1517
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠3–⁠68–⁠1–⁠8
Points21 (1.40 per game)25 (1.47 per game)
Expected Points per game1.021.36
Goals17–⁠2331–⁠27
xG per game0.99–⁠1.491.46–⁠1.58
Home: points, xG per game2.00, 1.06–⁠1.092.00, 1.81–⁠1.31
Away: points, xG per game0.50, 0.89–⁠2.100.88, 1.07–⁠1.89
ManagerStephen Robinson (8)Jim Goodwin (2)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.23AttackSt. Mirren0.94, 11thAberdeen1.18, 4thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.41, 10thAberdeen1.23, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecSt. Mirren attack: 0.94Aberdeen attack: 1.181.180.94AberdeenSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecSt. Mirren defence: 1.41Aberdeen defence: 1.231.411.23

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenAberdeen
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−34%+6%average+17%
Counter-attacks+68%−70%+72%+9%
Set pieces+25%−32%−27%+28%
Penalties−64%+191%+157%+61%
Headers+33%−6%+17%−5%
Left side−19%+25%−25%+24%
Centre−18%−18%−2%+5%
Right side−15%−19%+13%+36%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdAberdeen concededLeft side−19%+36%Centre−18%+5%Right side−15%+24%Open play−34%+17%Counter-attacks+68%+9%Set pieces+25%+28%Headers+33%−5%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−25%−19%Centre−2%−18%Right side+13%+25%Open playaverage+6%Counter-attacks+72%−70%Set pieces−27%−32%Headers+17%−6%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenAberdeen

0.99xG1.46
1.49xG against1.58
37%Possession48%
10.8Shots11.8
12.9Shots against15.1
3.0Shots on target4.1
1.7Big chances2.5
15.1Touches in the opposition box19.9
264Passes362
61%Pass accuracy72%
6.0Corners4.3
37%Field tilt38%
30.1Final-third entries36.8
8.9Box entries10.1
17.1Passes per defensive action16.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level450.941.38
Ahead211.201.47
Behind230.901.73

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level381.251.47
Ahead291.791.27
Behind231.392.17

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.202–2
16–300.120.260–3
31–450.190.325–5
46–600.220.185–3
61–750.120.201–4
76–900.260.344–6

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.182–3
16–300.200.234–4
31–450.410.278–4
46–600.270.276–5
61–750.250.286–5
76–900.250.355–6

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTCarson 15Strain 13Fraser 2Fraser 10Gogic 5Gallagher 12Shaughne… 3ShaughnessyDunne 15Tanser 7Tait 7Fraser 1Baccus 13Kiltie 4Erhahon 15O'Hara 13Ayunga 13Kiltie 1Main 13Greive 35-3-2 in every start

Aberdeen

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTRoos 17Richardson 9McCrorie 8Stewart 17Scales 13McCrorie 3MacKenzie 1Coulson 8Duk 8Scales 1Ramadani 14Barron 5Richardson 3McCrorie 6Clarkson 4Kennedy 1Kennedy 5Besuijen 4Richardson 3Besuijen 5Clarkson 3Ramadani 3Hayes 9Clarkson 5MacKenzie 2Miovski 174-2-3-1 in 6 of 17 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 3-5-2 (5), 3-1-4-2 (3), 4-4-2 (3)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
6 August 2022Aberdeen4–1St. MirrenxG 3.37–0.93
15 May 2022Aberdeen0–0St. MirrenxG 1.16–0.37
25 January 2022St. Mirren1–0AberdeenxG 0.13–0.47
4 December 2021Aberdeen4–1St. MirrenxG 4.40–0.95
26 September 2021St. Mirren3–2AberdeenxG 1.50–1.11
13 February 2021Aberdeen0–0St. MirrenxG 0.51–0.66

8 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 2, Aberdeen won 3, and 3 were drawn. Goals 8–13 and xG 0.95–1.54 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ayunga131,050320.410.04
Main131,049200.170.07
Strain131,118120.040.20
Kiltie5480110.070.11

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miovski171,3761100.720.03
Duk9887720.420.04
Besuijen9766300.220.20
Kennedy6499010.100.16

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.