Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Hearts 3–2 Dundee FC

Tuesday 23 January 2024, 19:45 · Tynecastle Park · Round 12 · Half-time 0–2 · Referee Chris Graham · Attendance 18,185

Hearts Nieuwenhof 57', Lembikisa 74', Oda 86'

Dundee FC McGhee 19', Cameron 38'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsDundee FC
Goals32
xG2.210.69
Non-penalty xG1.420.69
Expected Points2.480.35

Hearts 77%Draw 17%Dundee FC 6%

Most likely score 2–0, 17%. Final score 3–2, 3%.

Dundee FC goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+2%2%11%9%3%5%12%9%3%4%4%1%1%17%14%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTForrest on for Denholm, 32'Grant on for Cochrane, 46'Tait on for Baningime, 57'Oda on for Vargas, 73'Mulligan on for McCowan, 49'Main on for Robinson, 70'Reilly on for Bakayoko, 81'Nieuwenhof 57'Lembikisa 74'Oda 86'McGhee 19'Cameron 38'Hearts 2.21Dundee FC 0.6901230153045607590HTForrest on for Denholm, 32'Grant on for Cochrane, 46'Tait on for Baningime, 57'Oda on for Vargas, 73'Mulligan on for McCowan, 49'Main on for Robinson, 70'Reilly on for Bakayoko, 81'Nieuwenhof 57'Lembikisa 74'Oda 86'McGhee 19'Cameron 38'2.210.69HeartsDundee FC

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsDundee FC

2.21 +1.05xG0.69 −0.64
1.42Non-penalty xG0.69
1.96 +0.75xG on target1.64 +0.23
15 +2Shots8 −4
6 +1.8Shots on target4 +0.1
3 +1.8Big chances1 −0.9
22 −3Touches in the opposition box14 −7
67% +12Possession33% −10
504 +56Passes257 −72
79% +4Pass accuracy61% −7
79% +27Field tilt21% −19
55 +15Final-third entries22 −11
15 +2.8Box entries9 −0.2
11.4 −2Passes per defensive action17.8 0
7 0.0Corners1 −4.1
15 +1Tackles12 −4
5 −1.6Interceptions10 +0.2
13 −9Clearances33 +6
2 −0.7Saves3 +0.2
10 −1.9Fouls12 +2.4
2 +1.1Offsides0 −1.6

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Kingsley 15', 0.46 xGForrest 72', 0.27 xGShankland 31', 0.20 xGGrant 53', 0.07 xGVargas 11', 0.05 xGOda 76', 0.05 xGOda 90+2', 0.05 xGNieuwenhof 12', 0.03 xGLembikisa 30', 0.03 xGForrest 54', 0.03 xGKent 42', 0.02 xGOda 86', 0.08 xG, goalLembikisa 74', 0.07 xG, goalNieuwenhof 57', 0.03 xG, goal32%0.46 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.46 xG, 0 goals48%0.68 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.68 xG, 2 goals14%0.20 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals6%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.09 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Dundee FC

McGhee 6', 0.07 xGMcCowan 48', 0.07 xGShaughnessy 82', 0.07 xGRobinson 19', 0.06 xGAshcroft 6', 0.05 xGDodgson 79', 0.04 xGCameron 38', 0.25 xG, goalMcGhee 19', 0.07 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals74%0.50 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.50 xG, 1 goal10%0.07 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.07 xG, 1 goal16%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsDundee FC

0.90 11 shots, 3 goalsOpen play0.46 4 shots, 2 goals
0.05 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.47 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.23 4 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 0 goalsPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
31 min (32%) · Hearts 0.66, Dundee FC 0.37 xG
Hearts ahead
6 min (6%) · Hearts 0.05, Dundee FC 0.00 xG
Dundee FC ahead
59 min (61%) · Hearts 1.50, Dundee FC 0.32 xG

Line-ups

2824381862219977ClarkKentHalkettKingsleyLembikisaNieuwenhofBaningimeDenholmCochraneShanklandVargasGoalYellow cardGoal57'32'46'73'Hearts 3-5-2Steven Naismith316145344102317169CarsonMcGheeAshcroftShaughnessyDodgsonCostelloeCameronBoatengMcCowanRobinsonBakayokoGoalYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoalYellow card49'70'81'Dundee FC 5-3-2Tony Docherty

Hearts substitutes

  • 32' Forrest for Denholm · 2 assists
  • 46' Grant for Cochrane
  • 57' Tait for Baningime · 1 assist
  • 73' Oda for Vargas · goal 86'

Dundee FC substitutes

  • 49' Mulligan for McCowan
  • 70' Main for Robinson · yellow card 77'
  • 81' Reilly for Bakayoko

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0000.0101
KentCB900.020.0400.16156
HalkettCB900.000.0110.13310
KingsleyCB900.460.0310.10115
Lembikisa RWB9010.100.1110.33132
NieuwenhofCM9010.060.0510.0210
BaningimeCM570.000.010−0.0103
DenholmCM320.000.0110.0121
CochraneLWB460.000.2020.0530
ShanklandST900.980.0500.0330
VargasST730.050.1220.1452
ForrestMF5820.300.1020.1842
GrantMF440.070.0210.0001
TaitMF3310.000.0310.0601
OdaFW1710.180.0000.0320

Dundee FC

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
CarsonGK900.000.0000.0330
McGhee RWB9010.150.0900.0835
Ashcroft CB900.050.1810.0329
ShaughnessyCB900.070.0000.00111
Dodgson CB900.040.0400.0748
Costelloe LWB9010.000.0210.0466
CameronCM9010.250.1110.1115
BoatengCM900.000.0000.0118
McCowanCM490.070.0000.0032
RobinsonST700.060.0000.0910
Bakayoko ST8110.000.1420.2733
MulliganMF410.000.0000.0103
Main FW200.000.0000.0000
ReillyFW90.000.0100.0520

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Kingsley and Nieuwenhof: 3 passesHalkett and Vargas: 3 passesCochrane and Vargas: 3 passesCochrane and Shankland: 3 passesNieuwenhof and Denholm: 3 passesNieuwenhof and Vargas: 3 passesDenholm and Shankland: 3 passesVargas and Shankland: 3 passesClark and Kent: 4 passesKingsley and Cochrane: 4 passesHalkett and Shankland: 4 passesKent and Baningime: 5 passesKingsley and Baningime: 6 passesKent and Nieuwenhof: 7 passesKingsley and Denholm: 8 passesHalkett and Cochrane: 8 passesKent and Shankland: 9 passesKent and Lembikisa: 11 passesKingsley and Halkett: 14 passesKent and Halkett: 20 passesClark: 4 completed passesKent: 32 completed passesKingsley: 21 completed passesHalkett: 31 completed passesLembikisa: 6 completed passesCochrane: 14 completed passesNieuwenhof: 9 completed passesBaningime: 11 completed passesDenholm: 9 completed passesVargas: 9 completed passesShankland: 13 completed passes2823481198622779ClarkKentKingsleyHalkettLembikisaCochraneNieuwenhofBaningimeDenholmVargasShanklandStarters until 32' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Dundee FC

Carson and Dodgson: 3 passesMcGhee and Boateng: 3 passesMcGhee and Cameron: 3 passesMcGhee and Bakayoko: 3 passesMcCowan and Bakayoko: 3 passesCarson and Shaughnessy: 4 passesMcGhee and Ashcroft: 4 passesShaughnessy and Boateng: 4 passesDodgson and Bakayoko: 4 passesCostelloe and McCowan: 4 passesBoateng and McCowan: 4 passesMcCowan and Cameron: 4 passesDodgson and McCowan: 5 passesCameron and Bakayoko: 5 passesBoateng and Cameron: 7 passesCarson: 6 completed passesMcGhee: 7 completed passesShaughnessy: 7 completed passesDodgson: 16 completed passesAshcroft: 8 completed passesCostelloe: 8 completed passesBoateng: 16 completed passesMcCowan: 10 completed passesCameron: 12 completed passesBakayoko: 10 completed passesRobinson: 3 completed passes316531444231710916CarsonMcGheeShaughnessyDodgsonAshcroftCostelloeBoatengMcCowanCameronBakayokoRobinsonStarters until 49' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
HalkettKent22
HalkettKingsley20
KentHalkett17
KentLembikisa17
KingsleyHalkett16

Dundee FC

FromToPasses
BoatengCameron6
CameronBoateng5
DodgsonCostelloe5
DodgsonBakayoko4
CameronBakayoko4

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

7+1.65−2.83−1.54−4.06+0.41−3.410+2.68+1.11−4.45−0.24−0.72−3.76−0.14+0.15+0.80−3.14+0.72−3.06+4.61−0.72+0.94+2.92−0.41+0.21+0.20−0.70−0.80−0.88−7.71−6.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 21 matches

Dundee FC

5−0.48−0.521+2.110−0.25−2.89+1.410+3.24−2.911+3.03−1.75−0.85−0.14+0.71−1.14+0.53−0.21−1.63+1.21+0.11−0.23+0.11+0.20−0.51+0.61+0.40−0.72−3.33−3.21−3.90−3.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 18 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.020.010.030.010.040.070.050.040.040.090.050.010.020.070.03−0.020.030.120.040.140.10−0.010.020.20LessMore

Dundee FC

0.030.010.020.010.020.010.030.020.020.020.040.010.090.110.090.020.08−0.010.18LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.28AttackHearts1.24 → 1.28Dundee FC1.11 → 1.09Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.27 → 1.25Dundee FC1.43 → 1.48

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six>99%>99%0
Dundee FC
Top six39%30%−9
11th5%6%+1
Bottom2%2%0
Hibernian
Top six46%48%+2
St. Mirren
Top six52%53%+1

From the forecast before the match (23 January 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsDundee FC
Expected goals1.651.01
Win52%22%
Expected Points1.810.93
Clean sheet36%19%

Hearts 52%Draw 26%Dundee FC 22%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 52%.

Dundee FC goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+8%6%4%1%6%2%5%2%5%5%3%2%2%1%11%12%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 23 January 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawDundee FC win
Hearts
Top six>99%>99%99%99%
Dundee FC
Top six39%30%41%55%
11th5%6%4%2%
Bottom2%2%1%<1%
Hibernian
Top six46%48%46%42%
St. Mirren
Top six52%53%52%47%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. W2–12 JanLivingston (A)xG 1.94–1.66
  2. D2–230 DecRoss County (H)xG 1.87–1.54
  3. W1–027 DecHibernian (A)xG 1.30–1.85
  4. W2–023 DecSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.20–0.64
  5. W2–016 DecCeltic (A)xG 0.34–1.60
  6. L1–29 DecAberdeen (A)xG 0.33–1.74

Dundee FC

  1. D2–230 DecKilmarnock (A)xG 0.53–0.69
  2. L0–326 DecCeltic (H)xG 0.13–2.79
  3. W1–016 DecRoss County (A)xG 2.43–0.90
  4. L1–39 DecRangers (A)xG 1.11–2.08
  5. D3–32 DecMotherwell (A)xG 1.59–0.89
  6. L1–225 NovHibernian (H)xG 1.42–0.84

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsDundee FC
Position3rd7th
Played2118
Won, drawn, lost11–⁠3–⁠75–⁠7–⁠6
Points36 (1.71 per game)22 (1.22 per game)
Expected Points per game1.251.34
Goals24–⁠1822–⁠28
xG per game1.16–⁠1.481.33–⁠1.69
Home: points, xG per game1.50, 1.25–⁠1.351.33, 1.24–⁠1.87
Away: points, xG per game1.91, 1.07–⁠1.601.11, 1.42–⁠1.50
ManagerSteven Naismith (17)Tony Docherty (18)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.28AttackHearts1.24, 3rdDundee FC1.11, 8thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.27, 4thDundee FC1.43, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanHearts attack: 1.24Dundee FC attack: 1.111.241.11Dundee FCHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanHearts defence: 1.27Dundee FC defence: 1.431.431.27

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsDundee FC
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−11%+2%−17%+30%
Counter-attacksaverage−22%−9%+39%
Set pieces−13%+15%+55%+10%
Penalties−47%+58%−38%+23%
Headers−33%average+9%+54%
Left side−2%−9%+6%+29%
Centre−20%−2%+16%+22%
Right side+1%+31%−25%+25%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdDundee FC concededLeft side−2%+25%Centre−20%+22%Right side+1%+29%Open play−11%+30%Counter-attacksaverage+39%Set pieces−13%+10%Headers−33%+54%

Dundee FC attacking

Dundee FC createdHearts concededLeft side+6%+31%Centre+16%−2%Right side−25%−9%Open play−17%+2%Counter-attacks−9%−22%Set pieces+55%+15%Headers+9%average

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsDundee FC

1.16xG1.33
1.48xG against1.69
55%Possession43%
13.0Shots11.7
13.6Shots against15.2
4.2Shots on target3.9
1.2Big chances1.9
25.1Touches in the opposition box21.3
448Passes329
74%Pass accuracy68%
7.0Corners5.1
52%Field tilt39%
39.9Final-third entries33.4
12.2Box entries9.2
12.9Passes per defensive action17.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.281.15
Ahead290.811.76
Behind161.441.90

Dundee FC

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level481.281.52
Ahead171.281.66
Behind241.472.04

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.193–2
16–300.190.275–2
31–450.090.191–1
46–600.210.293–3
61–750.290.158–4
76–900.240.384–6

Dundee FC

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.161–3
16–300.120.333–4
31–450.250.234–3
46–600.280.283–4
61–750.240.243–4
76–900.310.458–10

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTClark 21Kingsley 9Atkinson 5Sibbick 4Kent 21Halkett 3Rowles 20Forrest 5Atkinson 5Oda 5Nieuwen… 13NieuwenhofDevlin 7Denholm 5Baningime 11Boyce 3Shankland 2Lowry 7Grant 6Haring 5Cochrane 12Vargas 3Lowry 3Shankland 19Kingsley 6Vargas 4Boyce 43-5-2 in 11 of 21 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (11), 4-2-3-1 (8), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Dundee FC

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTCarson 17McCracken 1Portales 10McGhee 5Kerr 2Shaughnessy 18Lamie 11Donnelly 5Ashcroft 2McGhee 9McCowan 2Kerr 2Cameron 11Mulligan 3Robertson 2Boateng 16Sylla 4Beck 2McCowan 14Beck 14Tiffoney 2McCowan 1Bakayoko 17Robinson 5Rudden 9Tiffoney 2Beck 13-5-2 in 10 of 18 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (10), 4-1-4-1 (2), 5-3-2 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 3-5-1-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
27 August 2023Dundee FC1–0HeartsxG 1.52–0.86
9 February 2022Hearts1–2Dundee FCxG 1.76–0.86
18 December 2021Dundee FC0–1HeartsxG 0.14–1.02
23 October 2021Hearts1–1Dundee FCxG 1.49–0.52

4 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 1, Dundee FC won 2, and 1 was a draw. Goals 3–4 and xG 1.28–0.76 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland211,8901300.430.14
Boyce7631130.360.20
Lowry10733010.110.23
Vargas9919300.210.10

Dundee FC

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Robinson7633200.520.03
Bakayoko171,482420.350.05
Rudden9821210.330.04
Tiffoney5476110.180.14

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.