Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Aberdeen 1–0 Kilmarnock

Saturday 20 February 2021, 15:00 · Pittodrie Stadium · Round 33 · Half-time 1–0

Aberdeen Hendry 21'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

AberdeenKilmarnock
Goals10
xG1.140.88
Expected Points1.531.12

Aberdeen 39%Draw 35%Kilmarnock 26%

Most likely score 1–1, 21%. Final score 1–0, 13%.

Kilmarnock goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+10%13%4%13%6%1%8%11%4%2%3%1%21%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTHendry on for Hornby, 20'Kennedy on for McGinn, 70'Virtanen on for Campbell, 89'Medley on for Dikamona, 29'Lafferty on for Dabo and McGowan on for Burke, 46'Whitehall on for Kabamba and Kiltie on for Haunstrup, 74'Hendry 21'Aberdeen 1.14Kilmarnock 0.8800.511.50153045607590HTHendry on for Hornby, 20'Kennedy on for McGinn, 70'Virtanen on for Campbell, 89'Medley on for Dikamona, 29'Lafferty on for Dabo and McGowan on for Burke, 46'Whitehall on for Kabamba and Kiltie on for Haunstrup, 74'Hendry 21'1.140.88AberdeenKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

AberdeenKilmarnock

1.14 −0.06xG0.88 −0.09
1.22 +0.08xG on target0.73 −0.18
10 −1Shots8 −2
4 +0.5Shots on target4 +1.1
1 −0.4Big chances1 +0.1
14 −6Touches in the opposition box18 0
44% −7Possession56% +11
310 −96Passes395 +33
59% −12Pass accuracy70% +1
31% −22Field tilt69% +22
26 −10Final-third entries39 +3
4 −5.9Box entries10 +0.4
11.2 −3Passes per defensive action9.2 −6
2 −2.6Corners3 −1.8
12 0Tackles20 +7
12 +2.1Interceptions10 −1.3
35 +16Clearances15 −2
4 +2.0Saves3 +0.6
12 −2Fouls11 −1
3 +1.4Offsides1 −1.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Aberdeen

McCrorie 70', 0.25 xGMcCrorie 70', 0.19 xGFerguson 61', 0.07 xGMcCrorie 82', 0.07 xGHornby 18', 0.06 xGFerguson 3', 0.05 xGKamberi 55', 0.05 xGMcGinn 15', 0.03 xGKamberi 73', 0.03 xGHendry 21', 0.35 xG, goal69%0.79 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.79 xG, 1 goal6%0.07 xGCentral box: 1 shot, 0.07 xG, 0 goals10%0.11 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals11%0.12 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals4%0.05 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Kabamba 35', 0.50 xGKabamba 72', 0.11 xGKabamba 48', 0.08 xGDicker 17', 0.06 xGMillen 34', 0.04 xGPinnock 56', 0.04 xGMcGowan 66', 0.04 xGDikamona 25', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals77%0.68 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.68 xG, 0 goals20%0.18 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals2%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

AberdeenKilmarnock

0.68 7 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.70 5 shots, 0 goals
0.06 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.40 2 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.17 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
21 min (23%) · Aberdeen 0.48, Kilmarnock 0.06 xG
Aberdeen ahead
69 min (77%) · Aberdeen 0.66, Kilmarnock 0.82 xG

Line-ups

131441840192410722LewisHobanTaylorConsidineMcLennanMcCrorieFergusonCampbellMcGinnHornbyKamberiYellow card89'70'20'Aberdeen 3-5-2Derek McInnes162245329268211911DoyleMillenDikamonaBroadfootHaunstrupBurkeDaboDickerMulumbuPinnockKabambaYellow card29'74'46'46'74'Kilmarnock 4-5-1Tommy Wright

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 20' Hendry for Hornby · goal 21'
  • 70' Kennedy for McGinn
  • 89' Virtanen for Campbell

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 29' Medley for Dikamona
  • 46' McGowan for Burke · yellow card 62'
  • 46' Lafferty for Dabo
  • 74' Whitehall for Kabamba
  • 74' Kiltie for Haunstrup

Players

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LewisGK900.000.0010.0340
HobanCB900.000.0000.0238
TaylorCB900.000.0000.01215
ConsidineCB900.000.0300.12133
McLennanRWB900.000.0100.06311
McCrorieCM900.510.000−0.0205
FergusonCM900.110.2010.2147
CampbellCM890.000.000−0.0206
McGinn LWB7010.030.3710.0023
HornbyST200.060.0010.0210
KamberiST900.080.0110.0220
HendryFW7010.350.0220.0101
KennedyMF200.000.0000.0101
VirtanenMF10.000.000––0

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DoyleGK900.000.0000.0222
MillenRB900.040.0300.12124
DikamonaCB290.020.0000.0003
BroadfootCB900.000.0100.0685
HaunstrupLB740.000.0210.0683
BurkeRM460.000.0100.0222
Dabo CM460.000.000−0.0203
DickerCM900.060.3610.1265
MulumbuCM900.000.3420.2475
PinnockLM900.040.0610.0342
KabambaST740.680.010−0.0211
MedleyDF610.000.0100.0548
McGowan DF440.040.0100.0011
LaffertyFW440.000.1810.1711
WhitehallFW160.000.0000.0001
KiltieFW160.000.0000.0110

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Broadfoot and Dabo: 3 passesHaunstrup and Kabamba: 3 passesDoyle and Broadfoot: 4 passesMillen and Burke: 4 passesMillen and Dabo: 4 passesHaunstrup and Pinnock: 5 passesHaunstrup and Mulumbu: 9 passesDoyle: 3 completed passesMillen: 11 completed passesDikamona: 4 completed passesBroadfoot: 6 completed passesHaunstrup: 14 completed passesBurke: 4 completed passesMulumbu: 10 completed passesDabo: 6 completed passesDicker: 6 completed passesPinnock: 3 completed passesKabamba: 6 completed passes162245329212681911DoyleMillenDikamonaBroadfootHaunstrupBurkeMulumbuDaboDickerPinnockKabambaStarters until 29' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
CampbellConsidine16
ConsidineCampbell8
ConsidineKamberi8
McGinnCampbell6
McGinnFerguson6

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
HaunstrupMulumbu12
HaunstrupPinnock10
MulumbuHaunstrup9
PinnockHaunstrup8
DickerMulumbu7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Aberdeen

20+15.68+2.011−0.27+0.78+3.16−0.85−1.19+2.49+1.34−3.16+0.62−3.14−0.29+2.913+6.16+2.61−2.53+0.54−0.54−0.73+1.32+0.41+0.11−1.04+1.01+0.30−0.50−0.90−0.50−0.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 29 matches

Kilmarnock

2−1.64−2.18−5.54−3.33−3.512+5.78+0.94−2.390.010+2.09+4.95−0.53−0.95+0.26+0.76+2.56+2.54+1.35+1.712+8.14+1.93+1.20−1.50−1.51−1.02+1.21+0.72+1.20−0.41+0.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 29 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Aberdeen

0.010.010.020.020.030.020.03−0.010.010.040.010.01−0.01−0.010.070.010.03−0.020.050.060.010.10LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.020.030.020.010.040.010.010.030.040.030.020.050.030.040.020.01−0.08−0.010.03−0.01−0.010.010.160.180.18LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.18AttackAberdeen1.07 → 1.06Kilmarnock0.93 → 0.92Defence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.01 → 1.00Kilmarnock1.28 → 1.27

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
11th24%28%+4
Bottom16%21%+5
Ross County
11th28%28%0
Bottom52%48%−4
Hamilton Academical
11th37%34%−3
Bottom30%28%−2

From the forecast before the match (20 February 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

AberdeenKilmarnock
Expected goals1.190.83
Win44%25%
Expected Points1.621.06
Clean sheet44%30%

Aberdeen 44%Draw 31%Kilmarnock 25%

Most likely score 1–0, 15%. Both sides score 40%.

Kilmarnock goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+10%5%1%5%2%9%8%3%4%3%1%1%14%15%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 20 February 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowAberdeen winDrawKilmarnock win
Kilmarnock
11th24%28%25%16%
Bottom16%21%15%7%
Ross County
11th28%28%28%27%
Bottom52%48%52%58%
Hamilton Academical
11th37%34%36%42%
Bottom30%28%31%31%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Aberdeen

  1. L0–117 FebCeltic (A)xG 0.43–0.98
  2. D0–013 FebSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.51–0.66
  3. L0–26 FebHibernian (A)xG 0.54–2.26
  4. L0–22 FebLivingston (H)xG 0.36–0.56
  5. D0–030 JanLivingston (A)xG 1.38–0.98
  6. D0–027 JanSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.10–0.36

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–113 FebRangers (A)xG 0.08–1.47
  2. L0–110 FebMotherwell (H)xG 1.00–0.95
  3. L0–26 FebSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.49–1.56
  4. L0–42 FebCeltic (H)xG 1.87–2.13
  5. L2–330 JanSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.17–2.14
  6. L0–227 JanLivingston (A)xG 0.59–1.10

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

AberdeenKilmarnock
Position4th10th
Played2929
Won, drawn, lost12–⁠9–⁠87–⁠3–⁠19
Points45 (1.55 per game)24 (0.83 per game)
Expected Points per game1.491.11
Goals31–⁠2926–⁠41
xG per game1.20–⁠0.990.97–⁠1.35
Home: points, xG per game1.80, 1.26–⁠1.051.00, 1.19–⁠1.36
Away: points, xG per game1.29, 1.13–⁠0.930.67, 0.77–⁠1.34
ManagerDerek McInnes (29)Tommy Wright (1)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.18AttackAberdeen1.07, 6thKilmarnock0.93, 11thDefence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.01, 3rdKilmarnock1.28, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebAberdeen attack: 1.07Kilmarnock attack: 0.931.070.93KilmarnockAberdeenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebAberdeen defence: 1.01Kilmarnock defence: 1.281.281.01

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

AberdeenKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−15%−25%−34%+2%
Counter-attacks+18%−34%−89%−34%
Set pieces−4%−37%+4%+26%
Penalties+40%+40%averageaverage
Headers−6%−44%−2%average
Left side−6%−16%−21%+21%
Centre−9%−46%−28%+5%
Right side−15%−12%−27%−5%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−6%−5%Centre−9%+5%Right side−15%+21%Open play−15%+2%Counter-attacks+18%−34%Set pieces−4%+26%Headers−6%average

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdAberdeen concededLeft side−21%−12%Centre−28%−46%Right side−27%−16%Open play−34%−25%Counter-attacks−89%−34%Set pieces+4%−37%Headers−2%−44%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

AberdeenKilmarnock

1.20xG0.97
0.99xG against1.35
51%Possession45%
11.4Shots10.1
9.7Shots against13.4
3.5Shots on target2.9
1.4Big chances0.9
20.4Touches in the opposition box18.5
406Passes362
72%Pass accuracy68%
4.6Corners4.8
53%Field tilt47%
36.0Final-third entries36.4
9.9Box entries9.6
14.0Passes per defensive action14.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.230.93
Ahead231.351.12
Behind221.000.99

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level430.901.12
Ahead191.091.63
Behind281.021.50

xG by period

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.270.135–6
16–300.120.204–6
31–450.220.157–4
46–600.180.156–6
61–750.150.143–3
76–900.260.226–4

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.154–4
16–300.130.214–7
31–450.190.176–4
46–600.200.215–7
61–750.200.274–8
76–900.160.343–11

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Aberdeen

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTLewis 29Hoban 25Hayes 3McCrorie 3Taylor 26McKenna 4Considine 26Kennedy 8Hedges 7McLennan 4Ferguson 21Kennedy 2Wright 1McCrorie 16Campbell 6Ojo 5Hayes 17Kennedy 6Leigh 5Hedges 12Ferguson 4McGinn 4Wright 12Kennedy 4Watkins 4Main 7Cosgrove 6Hornby 43-4-2-1 in 9 of 29 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (9), 3-4-1-2 (8), 3-4-3 (5), 3-5-2 (2), 3-5-1-1 (2), 4-4-1-1 (2), 3-1-4-2 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWRogers 24Doyle 4Eastwood 1McGowan 13Millen 11Rossi 4Broadfoot 22Dikamona 8Rossi 3Findlay 21Medley 3Waters 16Haunstrup 12Tshibola 1Power 23Kabamba 7Burke 2Dicker 16McKenzie 3Kiltie 3Tshibola 24Mulumbu 4Pinnock 1Burke 19McKenzie 3Kiltie 2Kabamba 13Brophy 6Kiltie 4McKenzie 11Kiltie 9Pinnock 54-3-3 in 11 of 29 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (11), 4-4-2 (9), 4-2-3-1 (4), 4-4-1-1 (2), 4-1-4-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 4-5-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
20 December 2020Kilmarnock0–2AberdeenxG 0.36–1.03
12 September 2020Aberdeen1–0KilmarnockxG 1.76–0.49

2 league meetings since 2020/21: Aberdeen won 2, Kilmarnock won 0, and 0 were drawn. Goals 3–0 and xG 1.40–0.42 per game.

Key players

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Main8709200.390.09
Watkins9732210.330.07
Wright141,132210.220.16
Cosgrove9853300.330.04

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Burke221,954730.240.22
Brophy8637200.320.02
Pinnock8842030.070.23
Kabamba201,879520.260.02

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.