Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Aberdeen 4–1 Kilmarnock

Saturday 1 October 2022, 15:00 · Pittodrie Stadium · Round 9 · Half-time 3–1 · Referee Kevin Clancy · Attendance 16,348

Aberdeen Besuijen 22', Miovski 24' (pen), 45', Stewart 63'

Kilmarnock Taylor 27'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

AberdeenKilmarnock
Goals41
xG2.330.47
Non-penalty xG1.550.47
Expected Points2.660.22

Aberdeen 85%Draw 12%Kilmarnock 3%

Most likely score 2–0, 20%. Final score 4–1, 4%.

Kilmarnock goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+2%1%13%7%1%11%2%8%2%7%4%2%1%20%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTMorris on for Watkins, 66'Duk on for Miovski, 67'Ramirez on for Besuijen and Milne on for Kennedy, 80'Duncan on for Hayes, 81'Armstrong on for Jones, Cameron on for Doidge, and McKenzie on for Lyons, 64'Alston on for Polworth, 70'Warnock on for Power, 81'Besuijen 22'Miovski 24' (pen)Miovski 45'Stewart 63'Taylor 27'Aberdeen 2.33Kilmarnock 0.4701230153045607590HTMorris on for Watkins, 66'Duk on for Miovski, 67'Ramirez on for Besuijen and Milne on for Kennedy, 80'Duncan on for Hayes, 81'Armstrong on for Jones, Cameron on for Doidge, and McKenzie on for Lyons, 64'Alston on for Polworth, 70'Warnock on for Power, 81'Besuijen 22'Miovski 24' (pen)Miovski 45'Stewart 63'Taylor 27'2.330.47AberdeenKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

AberdeenKilmarnock

2.33 +0.68xG0.47 −0.25
1.55Non-penalty xG0.47
2.93 +1.05xG on target0.70 +0.34
16 +3Shots7 −4
8 +3.4Shots on target3 +0.7
4 +1.4Big chances0 −0.7
29Touches in the opposition box11
60% +7Possession40% −4
468 +66Passes315 −5
82% +6Pass accuracy71% +4
53% +9Field tilt47% +9
46 +3Final-third entries22 −10
16 +5.3Box entries8 −1.0
9.9 −5Passes per defensive action20.2 +6
5 −0.7Corners5 +0.6
16 +2Tackles22 +6
6 −3.7Interceptions11 0.0
15 −6Clearances24 +6
2 −0.9Saves3 −1.0
12 +2.6Fouls11 −2.6
1 −0.3Offsides0 −2.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Aberdeen

Miovski 45', 0.24 xGDuk 74', 0.12 xGCoulson 61', 0.10 xGKennedy 52', 0.07 xGRamadani 44', 0.06 xGRichardson 74', 0.05 xGDuncan 88', 0.05 xGMiovski 35', 0.04 xGRamadani 62', 0.04 xGRamirez 82', 0.04 xGCoulson 17', 0.02 xGWatkins 23', 0.00 xGMiovski 45', 0.42 xG, goalStewart 63', 0.19 xG, goalBesuijen 22', 0.10 xG, goal55%0.84 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.84 xG, 2 goals14%0.21 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.21 xG, 1 goal10%0.16 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.16 xG, 0 goals21%0.33 xGEdge of the box: 7 shots, 0.33 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Shaw 32', 0.22 xGDoidge 15', 0.07 xGPolworth 38', 0.05 xGShaw 85', 0.05 xGMcKenzie 82', 0.02 xGJones 47', 0.01 xGTaylor 27', 0.05 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals72%0.34 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.34 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals23%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals4%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

AberdeenKilmarnock

1.27 12 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.21 5 shots, 0 goals
0.28 3 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.26 2 shots, 1 goal
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
22 min (24%) · Aberdeen 0.11, Kilmarnock 0.07 xG
Aberdeen ahead
68 min (76%) · Aberdeen 2.22, Kilmarnock 0.40 xG

Line-ups

2425522215163317910RoosRichardsonStewartMcCrorieCoulsonWatkinsRamadaniKennedyHayesMiovskiBesuijenGoalYellow cardGoalGoalGoal66'80'81'67'80'Aberdeen 4-4-2Jim Goodwin12519331741031926HemmingMayoTaylorWrightChriseneLyonsPowerJonesPolworthShawDoidgeGoalYellow cardYellow card64'81'64'70'64'Kilmarnock 4-2-3-1Derek McInnes

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 66' Morris for Watkins
  • 67' Duk for Miovski
  • 80' Milne for Kennedy
  • 80' Ramirez for Besuijen
  • 81' Duncan for Hayes

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 64' Armstrong for Jones
  • 64' McKenzie for Lyons
  • 64' Cameron for Doidge
  • 70' Alston for Polworth
  • 81' Warnock for Power

Players

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RoosGK900.000.0000.0761
RichardsonRB900.050.2510.2064
StewartCB9010.190.0800.1046
McCrorieCB900.000.0510.1546
CoulsonLB900.120.5820.36125
Watkins RM660.000.0400.0011
RamadaniCM900.100.0210.0649
KennedyCM800.070.0100.0141
HayesLM8110.000.2210.1393
MiovskiST6721.480.0000.0010
BesuijenST8010.100.0620.0851
MorrisFW240.000.0000.0430
DukFW230.120.0000.0220
MilneDF100.000.0000.0001
RamirezFW100.040.010−0.0420
DuncanFW90.050.0200.0530

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HemmingGK900.000.0000.0113
MayoRB900.000.0100.03110
Taylor CB9010.050.0510.06411
WrightCB900.000.0000.05610
ChriseneLB900.000.0300.0546
LyonsDM640.000.000−0.0104
PowerDM810.000.0100.0353
Jones RW640.010.0610.1142
PolworthAM7010.050.041−0.0312
ShawLW900.270.030−0.0114
DoidgeST640.070.0000.0103
ArmstrongMF260.000.0200.0400
McKenzieMF260.020.0100.0111
CameronFW260.000.0000.0001
AlstonMF200.000.0100.0112
WarnockMF90.000.0000.0311

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Aberdeen

Roos and Ramadani: 5 passesRichardson and Watkins: 5 passesRichardson and Ramadani: 5 passesRichardson and Hayes: 5 passesStewart and Watkins: 5 passesStewart and Hayes: 5 passesRamadani and Hayes: 5 passesStewart and Kennedy: 6 passesStewart and Besuijen: 7 passesWatkins and Besuijen: 8 passesRoos and Richardson: 9 passesRichardson and Stewart: 9 passesMcCrorie and Ramadani: 9 passesStewart and McCrorie: 10 passesCoulson and Hayes: 10 passesKennedy and Hayes: 10 passesCoulson and Ramadani: 12 passesCoulson and Kennedy: 13 passesMcCrorie and Coulson: 14 passesMcCrorie and Kennedy: 15 passesRichardson and Besuijen: 16 passesRoos and Stewart: 23 passesRoos and McCrorie: 24 passesRoos: 38 completed passesRichardson: 26 completed passesStewart: 40 completed passesMcCrorie: 42 completed passesCoulson: 27 completed passesWatkins: 11 completed passesKennedy: 24 completed passesRamadani: 28 completed passesHayes: 20 completed passesMiovski: 10 completed passesBesuijen: 21 completed passes2425522215331617910RoosRichardsonStewartMcCrorieCoulsonWatkinsKennedyRamadaniHayesMiovskiBesuijenStarters until 66' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Kilmarnock

Hemming and Wright: 4 passesHemming and Power: 4 passesTaylor and Chrisene: 4 passesTaylor and Power: 4 passesTaylor and Jones: 4 passesChrisene and Shaw: 4 passesPower and Polworth: 4 passesMayo and Taylor: 5 passesMayo and Polworth: 5 passesTaylor and Polworth: 5 passesWright and Chrisene: 5 passesPower and Shaw: 5 passesLyons and Polworth: 5 passesWright and Power: 6 passesWright and Lyons: 6 passesChrisene and Lyons: 6 passesPower and Lyons: 7 passesLyons and Shaw: 7 passesJones and Polworth: 7 passesMayo and Jones: 9 passesTaylor and Wright: 11 passesChrisene and Polworth: 11 passesChrisene and Power: 13 passesHemming: 10 completed passesMayo: 15 completed passesTaylor: 20 completed passesWright: 20 completed passesChrisene: 25 completed passesPower: 23 completed passesLyons: 18 completed passesJones: 11 completed passesPolworth: 20 completed passesShaw: 14 completed passesDoidge: 2 completed passes12519334171031926HemmingMayoTaylorWrightChrisenePowerLyonsJonesPolworthShawDoidgeStarters until 64' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
StewartRoos19
RoosMcCrorie18
McCrorieStewart13
RoosStewart12
McCrorieCoulson12

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
ChrisenePower10
ChrisenePolworth7
TaylorWright7
WrightTaylor6
PolworthPower5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Aberdeen

7+2.75−1.17+0.35−0.43−3.74−2.12−4.06+0.92−3.78+4.07+2.04+0.16+1.35−0.67+3.39+5.71−1.64+0.95+1.04+2.97+6.01+0.11−0.15+3.410.00−0.42+1.70−0.10−0.99−8.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Kilmarnock

3−2.99+2.416+1.98−0.67+0.310+5.45−1.76−1.16+0.110+2.310+4.06+1.42−2.04−0.65+0.92−3.64+0.40−2.72−1.75+0.74+1.40−1.31+0.42+0.67+5.30−1.40−0.90−0.30−0.42+1.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Aberdeen

0.040.020.010.010.040.050.020.030.010.090.050.010.020.040.07−0.01−0.010.090.100.03−0.050.010.170.210.19LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.020.010.030.020.010.020.010.02−0.010.020.05−0.020.040.060.07LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.18AttackAberdeen1.11 → 1.16Kilmarnock0.93 → 0.92Defence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.16 → 1.14Kilmarnock1.30 → 1.37

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Aberdeen
Top six67%74%+7
11th1%1%0
Bottom<1%<1%0
Kilmarnock
Top six13%9%−4
11th17%20%+3
Bottom18%21%+3
Dundee United
Top six3%3%0
11th24%24%0
Bottom37%35%−2
St. Johnstone
Top six10%9%−1
11th19%18%−1
Bottom15%14%−1

From the forecast before the match (1 October 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

AberdeenKilmarnock
Expected goals1.470.83
Win52%21%
Expected Points1.830.89
Clean sheet44%23%

Aberdeen 52%Draw 28%Kilmarnock 21%

Most likely score 1–0, 14%. Both sides score 44%.

Kilmarnock goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+8%3%1%5%1%9%4%1%5%4%2%2%2%11%14%13%11%

From the forecast as it stood on 1 October 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowAberdeen winDrawKilmarnock win
Aberdeen
Top six67%74%63%55%
11th1%1%2%2%
Bottom<1%<1%1%1%
Kilmarnock
Top six13%9%14%22%
11th17%20%16%12%
Bottom18%21%17%11%
Dundee United
Top six3%3%3%3%
11th24%24%23%25%
Bottom37%35%37%40%
St. Johnstone
Top six10%9%10%9%
11th19%18%20%21%
Bottom15%14%16%16%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Aberdeen

  1. L1–317 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.66–2.80
  2. D1–13 SepRoss County (A)xG 0.83–1.36
  3. W5–027 AugLivingston (H)xG 4.14–0.53
  4. W1–020 AugSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.05–0.34
  5. L2–313 AugMotherwell (H)xG 1.27–2.72
  6. W4–16 AugSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.37–0.93

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–117 SepLivingston (A)xG 0.11–0.83
  2. L0–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.39–1.44
  3. W2–127 AugMotherwell (H)xG 1.52–0.70
  4. L0–120 AugRoss County (A)xG 0.70–0.65
  5. L0–514 AugCeltic (H)xG 0.69–3.34
  6. L0–26 AugRangers (A)xG 0.37–1.77

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

AberdeenKilmarnock
Position7th11th
Played77
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠1–⁠31–⁠1–⁠5
Points10 (1.43 per game)4 (0.57 per game)
Expected Points per game1.370.99
Goals14–⁠103–⁠12
xG per game1.65–⁠1.510.72–⁠1.30
Home: points, xG per game2.00, 2.93–⁠1.391.33, 1.15–⁠1.47
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 0.69–⁠1.600.00, 0.39–⁠1.17
ManagerJim Goodwin (19)Derek McInnes (7)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.18AttackAberdeen1.11, 5thKilmarnock0.93, 8thDefence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.16, 4thKilmarnock1.30, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepAberdeen attack: 1.11Kilmarnock attack: 0.931.110.93KilmarnockAberdeenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepAberdeen defence: 1.16Kilmarnock defence: 1.301.301.16

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

AberdeenKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+7%−6%−48%−12%
Counter-attacks+189%−13%−34%−16%
Set pieces−8%+60%−15%+85%
Penalties+207%+105%−100%−100%
Headers+51%+21%−44%−22%
Left side−28%−25%−13%−8%
Centre+15%+12%−51%+15%
Right side+40%+37%−49%+20%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−28%+20%Centre+15%+15%Right side+40%−8%Open play+7%−12%Counter-attacks+189%−16%Set pieces−8%+85%Headers+51%−22%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdAberdeen concededLeft side−13%+37%Centre−51%+12%Right side−49%−25%Open play−48%−6%Counter-attacks−34%−13%Set pieces−15%+60%Headers−44%+21%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

AberdeenKilmarnock

1.65xG0.72
1.51xG against1.30
53%Possession44%
13.3Shots11.3
13.7Shots against13.9
4.6Shots on target2.3
2.6Big chances0.7
402Passes320
77%Pass accuracy68%
5.7Corners4.4
44%Field tilt38%
43.2Final-third entries32.5
10.7Box entries9.0
15.1Passes per defensive action14.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level371.471.10
Ahead282.701.59
Behind250.742.06

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level350.661.30
Ahead21.160.51
Behind530.741.33

xG by period

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.151–1
16–300.190.201–1
31–450.360.214–1
46–600.330.333–3
61–750.320.222–3
76–900.340.403–1

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.050.280–3
16–300.120.090–1
31–450.170.230–3
46–600.180.170–1
61–750.060.131–0
76–900.130.402–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Aberdeen

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTRoos 7Richardson 7Stewart 7Scales 5McCrorie 2Coulson 6Scales 1Ramadani 7McCrorie 5Clarkson 1Polvara 1Besuijen 4Kennedy 3Besuijen 3Clarkson 3Duk 1Hayes 7Miovski 74-2-3-1 in 6 of 7 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTWalker 6Hemming 1Wright 5Shaw 2Taylor 6Dorsett 2Mayo 6Alebiosu 7Power 7Armstrong 1Polworth 4Donnelly 2Chrisene 2McInroy 2Dorsett 1McKenzie 5Chrisene 1Murray 1Armstrong 2Shaw 2Lafferty 2Lafferty 3Shaw 2Doidge 13-4-2-1 in 2 of 7 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 5-3-2 (2), 3-4-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
20 February 2021Aberdeen1–0KilmarnockxG 1.14–0.88
20 December 2020Kilmarnock0–2AberdeenxG 0.36–1.03
12 September 2020Aberdeen1–0KilmarnockxG 1.76–0.49

3 league meetings since 2020/21: Aberdeen won 3, Kilmarnock won 0, and 0 were drawn. Goals 4–0 and xG 1.31–0.58 per game.

Key players

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miovski7570500.800.02
Besuijen7563100.210.26
Hayes7579120.130.16
Richardson7618000.060.15

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shaw6475000.270.02
Polworth5461010.060.12
Power7567000.030.15
Taylor6461200.080.00

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.