Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Kilmarnock 0–4 Celtic

Tuesday 2 February 2021, 19:45 · Rugby Park · Round 27 · Half-time 0–1

Celtic Brown 29', Edouard 53' (pen), 62', Ajeti 86'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockCeltic
Goals04
xG1.872.13
Non-penalty xG1.871.35
Expected Points1.141.57

Kilmarnock 28%Draw 29%Celtic 43%

Most likely score 2–2, 15%. Final score 0–4, <1%.

Celtic goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+2%3%2%1%8%8%2%1%8%9%3%4%7%5%1%1%2%1%12%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTKabamba on for Oakley and Pierrick on for Dicker, 71'Pinnock on for Burke, 76'Elyounoussi on for Christie, 70'Klimala on for Edouard and Johnston on for Turnbull, 73'Laxalt on for Taylor, 90'Brown 29'Edouard 53' (pen)Edouard 62'Ajeti 86'Celtic 2.13Kilmarnock 1.8701230153045607590HTKabamba on for Oakley and Pierrick on for Dicker, 71'Pinnock on for Burke, 76'Elyounoussi on for Christie, 70'Klimala on for Edouard and Johnston on for Turnbull, 73'Laxalt on for Taylor, 90'Brown 29'Edouard 53' (pen)Edouard 62'Ajeti 86'2.131.87KilmarnockCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockCeltic

1.87 +0.88xG2.13 +0.16
1.87Non-penalty xG1.35
1.60 +0.62xG on target3.80 +1.71
12 +2Shots12 −6
3 0.0Shots on target6 −0.7
3 +2.0Big chances3 +0.3
25 +8Touches in the opposition box46 +18
32% −13Possession68% +1
285 −77Passes633 +52
67% −1Pass accuracy84% 0
37% −10Field tilt63% −10
20 −17Final-third entries66 −1
11 +2.0Box entries24 +7.3
22.3 +7.5Passes per defensive action9.4 −0.4
9 +4.3Corners4 −2.1
15 +2Tackles12 −1
21 +9.8Interceptions14 +4.5
11 −7Clearances20 +5
2 −0.2Saves3 +1.6
13 +1Fouls10 −2
3 +0.8Offsides1 −0.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Rossi 63', 0.76 xGRossi 88', 0.35 xGBurke 57', 0.31 xGRossi 22', 0.09 xGRossi 58', 0.07 xGPinnock 90+2', 0.07 xGOakley 40', 0.05 xGDicker 31', 0.04 xGPinnock 79', 0.04 xGMcKenzie 24', 0.03 xGBurke 43', 0.03 xGPinnock 85', 0.03 xG62%1.15 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 1.15 xG, 0 goals29%0.54 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.54 xG, 0 goals2%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals7%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Edouard 9', 0.08 xGEdouard 67', 0.06 xGTurnbull 37', 0.05 xGEdouard 8', 0.03 xGTurnbull 19', 0.03 xGChristie 26', 0.03 xGTurnbull 45', 0.03 xGBrown 68', 0.03 xGAjeti 86', 0.51 xG, goalEdouard 62', 0.43 xG, goalBrown 29', 0.06 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals84%1.14 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 1.14 xG, 3 goals2%0.03 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals10%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals4%0.05 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockCeltic

0.56 7 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.21 8 shots, 2 goals
1.31 5 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.14 3 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
29 min (32%) · Kilmarnock 0.11, Celtic 0.23 xG
Celtic ahead
63 min (68%) · Kilmarnock 1.75, Celtic 1.90 xG

Line-ups

1622144368272997DoyleMillenRossiDikamonaHaunstrupPowerDickerTshibolaBurkeOakleyMcKenzieYellow card71'76'71'Kilmarnock 4-3-3Andy Millen29165735317814421022BainKennyWelshAjerTaylorChristieBrownTurnbullMcGregorAjetiEdouardGoalGoalGoalGoal90'70'73'73'Celtic 4-1-2-1-2Neil Lennon

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 71' Pierrick for Dicker
  • 71' Kabamba for Oakley
  • 76' Pinnock for Burke

Celtic substitutes

  • 70' Elyounoussi for Christie
  • 73' Johnston for Turnbull
  • 73' Klimala for Edouard
  • 90' Laxalt for Taylor

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DoyleGK900.000.0000.0110
MillenRB900.000.0810.1682
RossiCB901.270.0000.11012
DikamonaCB900.000.0000.01012
HaunstrupLB900.000.1110.1786
PowerCM900.000.0610.05412
DickerCM710.040.0200.0431
Tshibola CM900.000.021−0.0110
BurkeRW760.340.2110.0130
OakleyST710.050.010−0.0300
McKenzieLW900.030.6740.3833
PierrickFW190.000.0200.0201
KabambaFW190.000.0000.0010
PinnockMF140.140.1110.0000

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BainGK900.000.0000.0224
KennyRB900.000.1610.1156
WelshCB900.000.0100.1057
AjerCB900.000.0400.1584
TaylorLB900.000.3010.32135
ChristieDM700.030.1110.0833
BrownCM90110.090.2310.10511
TurnbullCM7320.120.4630.2061
McGregorAM900.000.0900.1162
AjetiST9010.510.020−0.0221
EdouardST7321.390.1010.1841
ElyounoussiFW200.000.0000.0101
JohnstonFW170.000.000−0.0100
KlimalaFW170.000.0000.0010
LaxaltMF00.000.000––0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Doyle and Power: 3 passesRossi and Burke: 3 passesPower and Oakley: 3 passesPower and McKenzie: 3 passesHaunstrup and Oakley: 4 passesTshibola and Burke: 4 passesMillen and Rossi: 5 passesMillen and Dicker: 5 passesRossi and Power: 5 passesHaunstrup and Tshibola: 5 passesPower and Dicker: 5 passesBurke and McKenzie: 5 passesMillen and Tshibola: 7 passesPower and Tshibola: 7 passesPower and Burke: 7 passesTshibola and McKenzie: 8 passesHaunstrup and McKenzie: 9 passesMillen and Burke: 10 passesDicker and Tshibola: 10 passesMillen and Oakley: 11 passesMillen and Power: 12 passesHaunstrup and Dicker: 12 passesDoyle: 8 completed passesMillen: 26 completed passesDikamona: 5 completed passesRossi: 11 completed passesHaunstrup: 19 completed passesPower: 27 completed passesDicker: 21 completed passesTshibola: 19 completed passesBurke: 15 completed passesOakley: 11 completed passesMcKenzie: 17 completed passes1622414368272997DoyleMillenDikamonaRossiHaunstrupPowerDickerTshibolaBurkeOakleyMcKenzieStarters until 71' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Celtic

Taylor and Ajeti: 6 passesKenny and Brown: 8 passesChristie and Edouard: 8 passesBain and Ajer: 9 passesKenny and Turnbull: 9 passesAjer and Turnbull: 9 passesTaylor and Turnbull: 9 passesBrown and Christie: 9 passesBain and Welsh: 10 passesTaylor and Christie: 10 passesChristie and Turnbull: 10 passesAjer and Taylor: 11 passesWelsh and Christie: 11 passesBrown and Turnbull: 12 passesMcGregor and Edouard: 12 passesTurnbull and Edouard: 14 passesKenny and Welsh: 17 passesBrown and McGregor: 19 passesKenny and Christie: 21 passesWelsh and Brown: 21 passesAjer and Brown: 24 passesAjer and McGregor: 26 passesMcGregor and Turnbull: 26 passesTaylor and McGregor: 29 passesAjer and Welsh: 50 passesBain: 16 completed passesKenny: 35 completed passesAjer: 72 completed passesWelsh: 65 completed passesTaylor: 35 completed passesBrown: 54 completed passesMcGregor: 66 completed passesChristie: 34 completed passesTurnbull: 48 completed passesEdouard: 18 completed passesAjeti: 11 completed passes29163557384217142210BainKennyAjerWelshTaylorBrownMcGregorChristieTurnbullEdouardAjetiStarters until 70' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
PowerMillen9
HaunstrupTshibola9
MillenOakley9
DickerHaunstrup8
TshibolaPower8

Celtic

FromToPasses
WelshAjer32
AjerWelsh20
McGregorTaylor18
AjerBrown18
AjerMcGregor17

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

3−0.514+8.014+0.712+4.92−4.82−4.612+5.110+3.712+3.24−4.31−3.01−4.43−1.15+0.29+3.64+0.81−2.64+1.45+1.82−2.01−1.02+0.20−1.61−0.46+4.30−0.80−0.30−0.80−0.40−0.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 25 matches

Celtic

3−1.63−1.813+3.56+2.47+2.111+3.25−0.82−2.39+2.57−1.04−1.86+0.54+0.52−2.54−2.23−1.05+0.86+2.53−1.35+1.04+2.01−1.11−0.93+0.61−1.70−0.42+1.50−0.80−0.60−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 24 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.030.010.010.040.01−0.010.010.020.050.01−0.020.020.030.090.03−0.020.010.090.180.030.29LessMore

Celtic

0.010.020.010.010.020.020.020.010.010.050.060.070.020.040.080.070.020.030.130.090.060.150.060.03−0.110.070.070.25LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.18AttackKilmarnock0.96 → 0.98Celtic1.80 → 1.84Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.25 → 1.29Celtic0.82 → 0.84

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six4%3%−1
11th11%12%+1
Bottom3%4%+1
St. Mirren
Top six81%82%+1

From the forecast before the match (2 February 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockCeltic
Expected goals0.701.93
Win12%66%
Expected Points0.582.20
Clean sheet14%50%

Kilmarnock 12%Draw 22%Celtic 66%

Most likely score 0–2, 13%. Both sides score 43%.

Celtic goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+8%9%4%2%5%9%6%3%1%2%3%3%2%1%13%13%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 2 February 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawCeltic win
Kilmarnock
Top six4%11%5%3%
11th11%5%9%12%
Bottom3%1%2%4%
St. Mirren
Top six81%77%81%82%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L2–330 JanSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.17–2.14
  2. L0–227 JanLivingston (A)xG 0.59–1.10
  3. L0–216 JanHibernian (A)xG 0.64–0.68
  4. W2–09 JanHamilton Academical (H)xG 1.50–0.43
  5. D1–12 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.97–0.52
  6. W2–030 DecMotherwell (A)xG 1.78–0.40

Celtic

  1. L1–230 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.61–1.03
  2. W2–027 JanHamilton Academical (H)xG 2.23–0.58
  3. D2–220 JanLivingston (A)xG 1.69–0.77
  4. D0–016 JanLivingston (H)xG 0.42–1.22
  5. D1–111 JanHibernian (H)xG 0.97–1.83
  6. L0–12 JanRangers (A)xG 0.61–0.58

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockCeltic
Position9th2nd
Played2524
Won, drawn, lost7–⁠3–⁠1514–⁠7–⁠3
Points24 (0.96 per game)49 (2.04 per game)
Expected Points per game1.151.93
Goals26–⁠3351–⁠20
xG per game0.99–⁠1.321.97–⁠0.98
Home: points, xG per game1.17, 1.15–⁠1.332.08, 1.82–⁠0.93
Away: points, xG per game0.77, 0.85–⁠1.312.00, 2.16–⁠1.03
ManagerAndy Millen (0)Neil Lennon (24)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.18AttackKilmarnock0.96, 9thCeltic1.80, 2ndDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.25, 8thCeltic0.82, 2nd

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0SepOctNovDecJanKilmarnock attack: 0.96Celtic attack: 1.801.800.96CelticKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0SepOctNovDecJanKilmarnock defence: 1.25Celtic defence: 0.821.250.82

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−32%−1%+69%−36%
Counter-attacks−87%−71%+164%−59%
Set pieces−6%+29%+19%−9%
Penalties+15%−8%+19%+19%
Headers−24%+3%average−41%
Left side−18%+8%+65%−19%
Centre−32%+4%+55%−29%
Right side−27%+1%+59%−38%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdCeltic concededLeft side−18%−38%Centre−32%−29%Right side−27%−19%Open play−32%−36%Counter-attacks−87%−59%Set pieces−6%−9%Headers−24%−41%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+65%+1%Centre+55%+4%Right side+59%+8%Open play+69%−1%Counter-attacks+164%−71%Set pieces+19%+29%Headersaverage+3%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockCeltic

0.99xG1.97
1.32xG against0.98
45%Possession67%
10.0Shots18.2
13.6Shots against8.3
3.0Shots on target6.7
1.0Big chances2.7
17.3Touches in the opposition box28.1
362Passes581
68%Pass accuracy84%
4.7Corners6.1
47%Field tilt73%
36.7Final-third entries66.6
9.0Box entries16.7
14.8Passes per defensive action9.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level430.971.18
Ahead221.091.63
Behind250.951.29

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.741.01
Ahead352.351.03
Behind111.740.65

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.164–4
16–300.140.234–6
31–450.200.146–2
46–600.200.185–6
61–750.200.274–5
76–900.140.343–10

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.230.145–3
16–300.280.159–3
31–450.380.107–3
46–600.360.209–4
61–750.350.196–3
76–900.390.2015–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWRogers 24Eastwood 1McGowan 11Millen 10Rossi 3Broadfoot 22Rossi 2Findlay 21Dikamona 5Waters 16Haunstrup 8Tshibola 1Dicker 13Kabamba 6Burke 2Power 20McKenzie 3Kiltie 2Tshibola 21Mulumbu 3Pinnock 1Burke 17McKenzie 2Pinnock 2Kabamba 12Brophy 6Kiltie 3Kiltie 9McKenzie 8Pinnock 54-3-3 in 9 of 25 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (9), 4-4-2 (8), 4-2-3-1 (3), 4-4-1-1 (2), 4-1-4-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 4-5-1 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBarkas 13Bain 6Hazard 5Frimpong 14Ajer 4Elhamed 3Duffy 12Bitton 9Jullien 9Ajer 16Welsh 2Taylor 10Laxalt 9Edouard 2Soro 9Brown 7Christie 3McGregor 24Ntcham 2Turnbull 1Christie 9Frimpong 4Forrest 3Turnbull 8Rogic 4Ntcham 4Elyounoussi 8Edouard 7Taylor 3Griffiths 7Edouard 4Ajeti 44-2-3-1 in 11 of 24 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (11), 4-1-3-2 (4), 3-5-2 (4), 4-4-2 (1), 3-4-2-1 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
13 December 2020Celtic2–0KilmarnockxG 1.83–0.79
9 August 2020Kilmarnock1–1CelticxG 1.06–0.74

2 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 0, Celtic won 1, and 1 was a draw. Goals 1–3 and xG 0.93–1.29 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Burke201,734730.240.22
Brophy8637200.320.02
Kabamba181,669520.290.02
Pinnock8803030.050.22

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Edouard141,230920.770.16
Griffiths7586520.530.18
Turnbull11938420.240.40
Elyounoussi141,114720.500.11

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.