Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Celtic 4–1 Hibernian

Wednesday 6 December 2023, 19:45 · Celtic Park · Round 16 · Half-time 2–0 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 58,892

Celtic Oh 5', 55', O'Riley 36', Palma 51' (pen)

Hibernian Doidge 72'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

CelticHibernian
Goals41
xG4.101.50
Non-penalty xG3.311.50
Expected Points2.740.18

Celtic 88%Draw 9%Hibernian 3%

Most likely score 4–1, 14%. Final score 4–1, 14%.

Hibernian goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+2%1%7%4%7%2%8%2%7%1%7%1%12%14%11%11%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

02460153045607590HTPhillips on for Carter-Vickers, 46'Ralston on for Taylor, 57'Furuhashi on for Oh and Tilio on for M. Johnston, 63'Bernardo on for McGregor, 82'Jeggo on for Levitt and Doidge on for Boyle, 58'Hanlon on for Bushiri and Molotnikov on for Campbell, 67'Whittaker on for Tavares, 82'Oh 5'O'Riley 36'Palma 51' (pen)Oh 55'Doidge 72'Celtic 4.10Hibernian 1.5002460153045607590HTPhillips on for Carter-Vickers, 46'Ralston on for Taylor, 57'Furuhashi on for Oh and Tilio on for M. Johnston, 63'Bernardo on for McGregor, 82'Jeggo on for Levitt and Doidge on for Boyle, 58'Hanlon on for Bushiri and Molotnikov on for Campbell, 67'Whittaker on for Tavares, 82'Oh 5'O'Riley 36'Palma 51' (pen)Oh 55'Doidge 72'4.101.50CelticHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

CelticHibernian

4.10 +1.20xG1.50 +0.34
3.31Non-penalty xG1.50
4.61 +1.58xG on target1.31 +0.06
26 +5Shots6 −5
12 +4.0Shots on target3 −0.9
6 +1.7Big chances2 0.0
53 +7Touches in the opposition box13 −11
61% −9Possession39% −13
626 −53Passes401 −16
91% +5Pass accuracy78% +2
84% +5Field tilt16% −31
73 −3Final-third entries25 −10
31 +8Box entries6 −6
11.4 +1Passes per defensive action30.3 +15
11 +1.9Corners4 −0.7
21 +6Tackles13 −2
5 −0.1Interceptions7 −0.5
16 +1Clearances25 +2
2 +0.3Saves8 +5.3
10 +0.9Fouls8 −1.6
1 −0.7Offsides2 +0.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Celtic

Oh 20', 0.49 xGCarter-Vickers 43', 0.36 xGFuruhashi 90+3', 0.25 xGIwata 90+5', 0.25 xGIwata 90+5', 0.18 xGO'Riley 90+4', 0.17 xGA. Johnston 42', 0.15 xGOh 14', 0.13 xGPalma 26', 0.10 xGFuruhashi 90+3', 0.08 xGM. Johnston 12', 0.07 xGPalma 85', 0.07 xGM. Johnston 58', 0.05 xGTaylor 11', 0.04 xGA. Johnston 89', 0.04 xGTilio 90+2', 0.04 xGMcGregor 23', 0.03 xGOh 29', 0.03 xGScales 27', 0.02 xGPalma 37', 0.02 xGPalma 37', 0.02 xGBernardo 90+1', 0.02 xGOh 5', 0.37 xG, goalOh 55', 0.18 xG, goalO'Riley 36', 0.13 xG, goal47%1.55 xGSix-yard box: 7 shots, 1.55 xG, 1 goal35%1.15 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 1.15 xG, 1 goal13%0.42 xGWide in the box: 6 shots, 0.42 xG, 1 goal5%0.17 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals1%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Bushiri 40', 0.23 xGYouan 39', 0.10 xGYouan 52', 0.09 xGTavares 45+1', 0.08 xGBushiri 22', 0.01 xGDoidge 72', 0.99 xG, goal87%1.31 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 1.31 xG, 1 goal7%0.10 xGCentral box: 1 shot, 0.10 xG, 0 goals6%0.09 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

CelticHibernian

2.35 20 shots, 2 goalsOpen play1.26 4 shots, 1 goal
0.96 5 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.24 2 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
5 min (5%) · Celtic 0.37, Hibernian 0.00 xG
Celtic ahead
91 min (95%) · Celtic 3.73, Hibernian 1.50 xG

Line-ups

12205333244290197HartA. JohnstonCarter-VickersScalesTaylorO'RileyIwataMcGregorM. JohnstonOhPalmaGoalYellow cardGoalGoalGoalYellow card46'57'82'63'63'Celtic 4-3-3Brendan Rodgers12533163261129710MarshallMillerFishBushiriStevensonCampbellLevittNewellTavaresYouanBoyleYellow card67'67'58'82'58'Hibernian 4-4-2Nick Montgomery

Celtic substitutes

  • 46' Phillips for Carter-Vickers
  • 57' Ralston for Taylor
  • 63' Furuhashi for Oh
  • 63' Tilio for M. Johnston
  • 82' Bernardo for McGregor

Hibernian substitutes

  • 58' Jeggo for Levitt
  • 58' Doidge for Boyle · goal 72'
  • 67' Hanlon for Bushiri
  • 67' Molotnikov for Campbell · yellow card 86'
  • 82' Whittaker for Tavares

Players

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HartGK900.000.0100.0000
A. JohnstonRB900.190.3250.3894
Carter-VickersCB4610.360.0110.0524
ScalesCB900.020.0200.15105
TaylorLB570.040.3900.3082
O'RileyCM9010.310.132−0.0746
IwataCM900.430.0300.0022
McGregor CM8210.030.1910.0335
M. JohnstonRW630.120.0410.1041
OhST6321.200.001−0.1102
Palma LW90111.000.6630.52196
PhillipsDF440.000.0000.0322
RalstonDF330.000.0920.1061
FuruhashiFW270.330.0000.1422
TilioFW270.040.4120.2560
BernardoMF80.020.0000.0211

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarshallGK900.000.0000.0221
MillerRB900.000.0000.01110
Fish CB900.000.0000.02210
BushiriCB670.240.0100.0424
StevensonLB900.000.0100.0244
CampbellRM670.000.1510.0732
LevittCM580.000.0100.0223
NewellCM900.000.0730.1695
TavaresLM820.080.010−0.0602
YouanST9010.200.5110.3542
BoyleST580.000.0100.0320
JeggoMF320.000.0000.0113
DoidgeFW3210.990.0100.0100
HanlonDF230.000.0000.0104
Molotnikov MF230.000.0000.0013
WhittakerMF80.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Celtic

O'Riley and McGregor: 4 passesIwata and McGregor: 4 passesIwata and Palma: 4 passesA. Johnston and O'Riley: 5 passesA. Johnston and Oh: 5 passesScales and McGregor: 5 passesCarter-Vickers and M. Johnston: 5 passesTaylor and O'Riley: 5 passesTaylor and Iwata: 6 passesScales and Iwata: 8 passesCarter-Vickers and McGregor: 8 passesO'Riley and M. Johnston: 9 passesO'Riley and Palma: 9 passesCarter-Vickers and Iwata: 10 passesA. Johnston and McGregor: 11 passesA. Johnston and Carter-Vickers: 13 passesMcGregor and Palma: 14 passesA. Johnston and Iwata: 15 passesScales and Palma: 15 passesA. Johnston and M. Johnston: 18 passesTaylor and McGregor: 19 passesScales and Taylor: 20 passesScales and Carter-Vickers: 25 passesTaylor and Palma: 25 passesHart: 4 completed passesA. Johnston: 43 completed passesScales: 44 completed passesCarter-Vickers: 36 completed passesTaylor: 39 completed passesO'Riley: 18 completed passesIwata: 27 completed passesMcGregor: 34 completed passesM. Johnston: 15 completed passesOh: 4 completed passesPalma: 33 completed passes12520333244290197HartA. JohnstonScalesCarter-VickersTaylorO'RileyIwataMcGregorM. JohnstonOhPalmaStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Hibernian

Miller and Campbell: 4 passesFish and Campbell: 4 passesStevenson and Campbell: 4 passesNewell and Tavares: 4 passesNewell and Youan: 4 passesMarshall and Newell: 5 passesCampbell and Newell: 5 passesLevitt and Tavares: 5 passesMiller and Levitt: 6 passesBushiri and Levitt: 6 passesFish and Newell: 6 passesFish and Levitt: 6 passesCampbell and Boyle: 6 passesBushiri and Fish: 7 passesBushiri and Campbell: 7 passesBushiri and Newell: 7 passesCampbell and Levitt: 7 passesStevenson and Newell: 9 passesBushiri and Stevenson: 10 passesNewell and Levitt: 11 passesMiller and Fish: 12 passesMarshall and Bushiri: 14 passesMarshall and Fish: 16 passesMarshall: 25 completed passesMiller: 16 completed passesBushiri: 26 completed passesFish: 25 completed passesStevenson: 17 completed passesCampbell: 22 completed passesNewell: 29 completed passesLevitt: 29 completed passesTavares: 8 completed passesBoyle: 8 completed passesYouan: 6 completed passes12335163211629107MarshallMillerBushiriFishStevensonCampbellNewellLevittTavaresBoyleYouanStarters until 58' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Celtic

FromToPasses
PhillipsScales20
TaylorPalma19
McGregorTaylor15
ScalesPhillips15
ScalesRalston14

Hibernian

FromToPasses
FishMarshall18
MillerFish12
MarshallBushiri11
StevensonNewell11
MarshallFish10

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Celtic

2−0.95+1.37−1.79+2.93−1.24−2.14−0.33−0.54−2.43−2.13−0.55+1.37+1.06−1.77+2.86+2.83+0.67+4.18+2.86+2.05+2.32+0.15+2.52−2.40−0.81+0.70−0.72+1.33+1.73−4.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 15 matches

Hibernian

5−0.56−1.327+10.09+1.13−2.34−3.612+5.73−2.98+0.30−6.93−4.91−3.11−1.82−4.47+1.96−0.50−3.15+3.11−2.12−1.13+1.41−0.30−0.60−1.62−0.12+1.50−0.30−0.20−0.30−0.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 15 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Celtic

0.010.010.020.010.020.010.040.030.040.060.080.060.020.100.070.100.020.110.190.10−0.060.120.160.260.29LessMore

Hibernian

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.020.030.030.120.020.01−0.010.040.010.060.03−0.020.01−0.05−0.010.31LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackCeltic2.41 → 2.44Hibernian1.21 → 1.19Defence (lower is better)Celtic0.71 → 0.71Hibernian1.29 → 1.32

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Celtic
Title78%80%+2
Hibernian
Top six77%75%−2
11th1%1%0
Rangers
Title22%20%−2

From the forecast before the match (6 December 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

CelticHibernian
Expected goals2.900.60
Win84%5%
Expected Points2.630.26
Clean sheet55%6%

Celtic 84%Draw 12%Hibernian 5%

Most likely score 2–0, 13%. Both sides score 43%.

Hibernian goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+3%2%9%6%2%8%2%7%2%9%5%2%5%3%4%2%13%12%

From the forecast as it stood on 6 December 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowCeltic winDrawHibernian win
Celtic
Title78%80%71%64%
Hibernian
Top six77%75%82%93%
11th1%1%0%<1%
Rangers
Title22%20%29%36%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Celtic

  1. W3–13 DecSt. Johnstone (A)xG 2.53–1.36
  2. D1–125 NovMotherwell (H)xG 3.25–0.48
  3. W6–012 NovAberdeen (H)xG 4.67–0.18
  4. W3–04 NovRoss County (A)xG 3.40–0.26
  5. W2–11 NovSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.89–0.62
  6. D0–028 OctHibernian (A)xG 1.49–0.57

Hibernian

  1. W2–03 DecAberdeen (H)xG 1.73–3.86
  2. W2–125 NovDundee FC (A)xG 0.84–1.42
  3. W1–011 NovKilmarnock (H)xG 0.41–0.46
  4. D2–28 NovSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.89–1.60
  5. D2–231 OctRoss County (H)xG 0.50–0.52
  6. D0–028 OctCeltic (H)xG 0.57–1.49

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticHibernian
Position1st5th
Played1515
Won, drawn, lost12–⁠3–⁠05–⁠6–⁠4
Points39 (2.60 per game)21 (1.40 per game)
Expected Points per game2.441.23
Goals38–⁠922–⁠21
xG per game2.90–⁠0.891.16–⁠1.34
Home: points, xG per game2.43, 3.41–⁠0.721.50, 1.35–⁠1.34
Away: points, xG per game2.75, 2.45–⁠1.031.29, 0.93–⁠1.34
ManagerBrendan Rodgers (15)Nick Montgomery (11)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackCeltic2.41, 1stHibernian1.21, 4thDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.71, 2ndHibernian1.29, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecCeltic attack: 2.41Hibernian attack: 1.212.411.21HibernianCelticDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecCeltic defence: 0.71Hibernian defence: 1.291.290.71

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+123%−17%−11%+3%
Counter-attacks+220%−88%−55%−16%
Set pieces+16%−38%+6%−16%
Penalties+199%−100%−63%+12%
Headers+28%−24%−6%−18%
Left side+107%−20%−3%−7%
Centre+89%−26%−17%−15%
Right side+126%−42%−2%+26%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdHibernian concededLeft side+107%+26%Centre+89%−15%Right side+126%−7%Open play+123%+3%Counter-attacks+220%−16%Set pieces+16%−16%Headers+28%−18%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdCeltic concededLeft side−3%−42%Centre−17%−26%Right side−2%−20%Open play−11%−17%Counter-attacks−55%−88%Set pieces+6%−38%Headers−6%−24%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticHibernian

2.90xG1.16
0.89xG against1.34
70%Possession52%
20.9Shots11.3
7.8Shots against14.5
8.0Shots on target3.9
4.3Big chances2.0
45.7Touches in the opposition box23.8
679Passes417
85%Pass accuracy76%
9.1Corners4.7
79%Field tilt47%
75.9Final-third entries35.5
23.5Box entries11.7
10.5Passes per defensive action15.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level472.600.65
Ahead413.301.20
Behind21.990.07

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.131.19
Ahead301.091.67
Behind191.301.16

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.320.134–1
16–300.560.107–1
31–450.260.154–1
46–600.520.093–1
61–750.360.174–2
76–900.890.2516–3

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.162–2
16–300.250.122–3
31–450.150.213–1
46–600.210.183–2
61–750.160.318–6
76–900.290.354–7

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWHart 14Bain 1A. Johnston 11Ralston 4Carter-Vickers 9Lagerbielke 4Phillips 2Scales 13Nawrocki 2Taylor 15O'Riley 14Bernardo 2McGregor 15Turnbull 8Hatate 4Holm 2Yang 5Maeda 5Abada 3Furuhashi 14Oh 1Palma 7Maeda 6Yang 24-3-3 in every start

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMarshall 14Wollacott 1Miller 10Whittaker 2Fish 1Fish 14Bushiri 10Hanlon 5Stevenson 1Obita 8Stevenson 6Levitt 1Boyle 5Youan 4Campbell 3Jeggo 10Levitt 5Doyle-Hayes 1Newell 14Youan 6Tavares 5Boyle 3Doidge 5Boyle 4Vente 13Le Fondre 4Campbell 34-4-2 in 10 of 15 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (10), 4-3-3 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
28 October 2023Hibernian0–0CelticxG 0.57–1.49
24 May 2023Hibernian4–2CelticxG 2.04–2.37
18 March 2023Celtic3–1HibernianxG 3.96–0.90
28 December 2022Hibernian0–4CelticxG 0.55–2.61
15 October 2022Celtic6–1HibernianxG 2.74–0.44
27 February 2022Hibernian0–0CelticxG 0.13–0.94

12 league meetings since 2020/21: Celtic won 6, Hibernian won 1, and 5 were drawn. Goals 26–10 and xG 2.24–0.92 per game.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Turnbull8600700.790.37
Palma7567450.440.44
Furuhashi141,094630.630.13
O'Riley141,210750.430.32

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Le Fondre4506310.410.02
Youan101,017220.240.13
Boyle121,109130.130.19
Vente13932320.230.09

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.