Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Celtic 2–0 Livingston

Saturday 23 December 2023, 15:00 · Celtic Park · Round 19 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Matthew McDermid · Attendance 58,703

Celtic Furuhashi 46', Scales 51'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

CelticLivingston
Goals20
xG3.660.00
Expected Points2.990.00

Celtic >99%Draw <1%Livingston –

Most likely score 3–0, 27%. Final score 2–0, 16%.

Livingston goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+4%16%16%10%27%26%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

012340153045607590HTForrest on for Maeda, 63'Oh on for Furuhashi and Yang on for Palma, 71'Turnbull on for Bernardo, 80'Nottingham on for Parkes, 42'Guthrie on for Anderson and Kelly on for Shinnie, 65'Lawal on for Nouble and Montano on for Penrice, 86'Furuhashi 46'Scales 51'Celtic 3.66Livingston 0.00012340153045607590HTForrest on for Maeda, 63'Oh on for Furuhashi and Yang on for Palma, 71'Turnbull on for Bernardo, 80'Nottingham on for Parkes, 42'Guthrie on for Anderson and Kelly on for Shinnie, 65'Lawal on for Nouble and Montano on for Penrice, 86'Furuhashi 46'Scales 51'3.660.00CelticLivingston

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

CelticLivingston

3.66 +0.83xG0.00 −0.96
2.06 −0.87xG on target0.00 −0.72
22 +1.1Shots0 −9.2
7 −1.0Shots on target0 −2.1
6 +1.8Big chances0 −1.1
59 +14Touches in the opposition box7 −10
77% +7Possession23% −21
748 +80Passes229 −94
87% +2Pass accuracy49% −13
94% +15Field tilt6% −36
105 +31Final-third entries15 −11
32 +8.6Box entries2 −5.6
17.5 +7Passes per defensive action32.3 +19
14 +4.3Corners0 −3.6
15 −1Tackles18 +1
2 −3.2Interceptions7 −0.9
7 −8Clearances38 +15
0 −1.7Saves5 +2.1
5 −4.4Fouls4 −9.5
3 +1.0Offsides2 +0.4

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Celtic

O'Riley 4', 0.73 xGO'Riley 82', 0.31 xGMaeda 58', 0.28 xGOh 88', 0.26 xGFuruhashi 8', 0.19 xGBernardo 16', 0.15 xGMaeda 36', 0.12 xGFuruhashi 14', 0.11 xGCarter-Vickers 73', 0.10 xGForrest 90+1', 0.09 xGMaeda 45+4', 0.06 xGPalma 46', 0.05 xGPalma 16', 0.04 xGMcGregor 75', 0.04 xGFuruhashi 36', 0.03 xGPalma 11', 0.02 xGPalma 25', 0.02 xGOh 90+1', 0.02 xGCarter-Vickers 37', 0.01 xGForrest 86', 0.01 xGFuruhashi 46', 0.88 xG, goalScales 51', 0.13 xG, goal63%2.30 xGSix-yard box: 5 shots, 2.30 xG, 2 goals30%1.08 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 1.08 xG, 0 goals4%0.13 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals4%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals0%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Livingston

–0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals–0.00 xGCentral box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals–0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals–0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals–0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

CelticLivingston

2.22 15 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
1.44 7 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
50 min (53%) · Celtic 2.42, Livingston 0.00 xG
Celtic ahead
45 min (47%) · Celtic 1.24, Livingston 0.00 xG

Line-ups

1220533342283887HartA. JohnstonCarter-VickersScalesTaylorO'RileyMcGregorBernardoMaedaFuruhashiPalmaGoalGoal80'63'71'71'Celtic 4-3-3Brendan Rodgers322364121822291989Hamiltonde LucasObileyeParkesBrandonHoltShinniePenriceNoublePittmanAndersonYellow card42'65'86'86'65'Livingston 3-4-2-1David Martindale

Celtic substitutes

  • 63' Forrest for Maeda
  • 71' Oh for Furuhashi
  • 71' Yang for Palma
  • 80' Turnbull for Bernardo

Livingston substitutes

  • 42' Nottingham for Parkes
  • 65' Kelly for Shinnie
  • 65' Guthrie for Anderson
  • 86' Lawal for Nouble
  • 86' Montano for Penrice

Players

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HartGK900.000.0000.0210
A. JohnstonRB900.000.3420.27154
Carter-VickersCB900.120.1110.3494
ScalesCB9010.130.1020.27150
TaylorLB900.000.2910.2942
O'RileyCM901.040.211−0.0144
McGregorCM900.040.2120.1241
BernardoCM800.150.050−0.0404
MaedaRW630.460.0300.0571
FuruhashiST7111.210.0310.0211
PalmaLW7120.130.8850.70163
ForrestFW270.110.0610.0120
OhFW190.280.0000.0000
YangFW190.000.4410.3470
TurnbullMF100.000.231−0.0100

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HamiltonGK900.000.0000.0452
de LucasCB900.000.0000.00016
ObileyeCB900.000.0000.0118
ParkesCB420.000.0000.0117
BrandonRWB900.000.0100.0227
Holt CM900.000.0000.0111
ShinnieCM650.000.000−0.0304
PenriceLWB860.000.0000.0336
NoubleAM860.000.2600.1720
PittmanAM900.000.000−0.0117
AndersonST650.000.1200.0400
NottinghamDF480.000.0000.0228
KellyMF250.000.0000.0001
GuthrieFW250.000.0000.0101
LawalMF40.000.0000.0001
MontanoFW40.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Celtic

Hart and Scales: 5 passesA. Johnston and Bernardo: 5 passesCarter-Vickers and O'Riley: 5 passesCarter-Vickers and Maeda: 5 passesO'Riley and Palma: 5 passesA. Johnston and Scales: 7 passesScales and O'Riley: 7 passesCarter-Vickers and Bernardo: 7 passesMcGregor and Palma: 7 passesScales and Bernardo: 8 passesHart and Carter-Vickers: 9 passesScales and McGregor: 12 passesBernardo and Palma: 12 passesTaylor and Bernardo: 13 passesCarter-Vickers and Taylor: 15 passesBernardo and McGregor: 15 passesA. Johnston and Maeda: 16 passesA. Johnston and O'Riley: 18 passesScales and Taylor: 22 passesScales and Palma: 22 passesCarter-Vickers and McGregor: 22 passesTaylor and McGregor: 27 passesTaylor and Palma: 31 passesA. Johnston and Carter-Vickers: 32 passesA. Johnston and McGregor: 34 passesScales and Carter-Vickers: 53 passesHart: 13 completed passesA. Johnston: 60 completed passesScales: 74 completed passesCarter-Vickers: 78 completed passesTaylor: 59 completed passesO'Riley: 21 completed passesBernardo: 32 completed passesMcGregor: 65 completed passesMaeda: 16 completed passesFuruhashi: 2 completed passesPalma: 37 completed passes1252033328423887HartA. JohnstonScalesCarter-VickersTaylorO'RileyBernardoMcGregorMaedaFuruhashiPalmaStarters until 63' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Livingston

Hamilton and Nouble: 3 passesObileye and de Lucas: 3 passesBrandon and Holt: 3 passesHamilton and de Lucas: 4 passesBrandon and Shinnie: 4 passesPenrice and Nouble: 4 passesNouble and Anderson: 4 passesHamilton: 7 completed passesParkes: 3 completed passesObileye: 3 completed passesde Lucas: 7 completed passesBrandon: 6 completed passesPenrice: 5 completed passesShinnie: 7 completed passesHolt: 3 completed passesNouble: 5 completed passesPittman: 3 completed passesAnderson: 5 completed passes324623122922181989HamiltonParkesObileyede LucasBrandonPenriceShinnieHoltNoublePittmanAndersonStarters until 42' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Celtic

FromToPasses
Carter-VickersScales41
ScalesCarter-Vickers38
Carter-VickersA. Johnston28
McGregorA. Johnston24
ScalesPalma22

Livingston

FromToPasses
HamiltonNouble7
HoltBrandon4
de LucasHamilton4
AndersonNouble4
NottinghamHamilton4

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Celtic

4+1.21−2.96−2.85+0.37+0.85+0.75+1.57+0.712+4.75+0.14+0.62−1.710+4.18+0.54−0.11−2.10−2.31−2.22−3.42−1.83+0.20−1.84+1.23−1.30−0.92+1.60−0.60−0.71−0.32−4.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 18 matches

Livingston

10+3.814+7.025+10.29+2.16+0.14−2.412+4.49+4.98−0.16−1.20−7.02−3.71−2.84−1.76−0.23−1.51−3.80−1.92−0.90−5.27+4.21−1.30−0.80−2.43−0.11+0.20−0.30−0.70−0.30−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 17 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Celtic

0.010.010.010.040.040.010.010.040.090.060.060.080.150.130.170.040.08−0.030.050.200.04−0.010.110.430.54LessMore

Livingston

0.010.030.010.010.010.010.010.100.03−0.010.01−0.030.060.01−0.01−0.070.17LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.27AttackCeltic2.31 → 2.34Livingston0.99 → 0.96Defence (lower is better)Celtic0.75 → 0.73Livingston1.37 → 1.40

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Celtic
Title44%46%+2
Livingston
Top six1%1%0
11th23%23%0
Bottom43%44%+1
Rangers
Title56%54%−2
Motherwell
Top six5%5%0
11th21%21%0
Bottom17%16%−1

From the forecast before the match (23 December 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

CelticLivingston
Expected goals2.990.52
Win86%4%
Expected Points2.680.21
Clean sheet59%5%

Celtic 86%Draw 10%Livingston 4%

Most likely score 2–0, 13%. Both sides score 39%.

Livingston goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+3%1%9%5%1%7%2%7%2%5%1%6%3%5%3%13%13%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 23 December 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowCeltic winDrawLivingston win
Celtic
Title44%46%37%30%
Livingston
Top six1%1%2%3%
11th23%23%25%21%
Bottom43%44%38%25%
Rangers
Title56%54%63%70%
Motherwell
Top six5%5%5%7%
11th21%21%19%18%
Bottom17%16%20%26%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Celtic

  1. L0–216 DecHearts (H)xG 1.60–0.34
  2. L1–210 DecKilmarnock (A)xG 1.68–2.06
  3. W4–16 DecHibernian (H)xG 4.10–1.50
  4. W3–13 DecSt. Johnstone (A)xG 2.53–1.36
  5. D1–125 NovMotherwell (H)xG 3.25–0.48
  6. W6–012 NovAberdeen (H)xG 4.67–0.18

Livingston

  1. L1–220 DecAberdeen (A)xG 1.53–1.00
  2. D0–016 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 1.14–0.88
  3. L0–19 DecHibernian (H)xG 1.34–0.22
  4. L0–125 NovSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.59–0.81
  5. L0–212 NovRangers (H)xG 0.13–2.68
  6. L0–15 NovDundee FC (A)xG 1.49–0.67

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticLivingston
Position1st12th
Played1817
Won, drawn, lost13–⁠3–⁠22–⁠5–⁠10
Points42 (2.33 per game)11 (0.65 per game)
Expected Points per game2.381.28
Goals43–⁠1410–⁠25
xG per game2.83–⁠0.950.96–⁠1.19
Home: points, xG per game2.22, 3.29–⁠0.760.75, 1.06–⁠1.23
Away: points, xG per game2.44, 2.37–⁠1.140.56, 0.88–⁠1.15
ManagerBrendan Rodgers (18)David Martindale (116)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.27AttackCeltic2.31, 1stLivingston0.99, 10thDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.75, 2ndLivingston1.37, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecCeltic attack: 2.31Livingston attack: 0.992.310.99LivingstonCelticDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecCeltic defence: 0.75Livingston defence: 1.371.370.75

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticLivingston
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+121%−13%−46%−17%
Counter-attacks+186%−64%−4%−33%
Set pieces+23%−31%−22%−3%
Penalties+181%−100%+32%−1%
Headers+24%−19%−19%−17%
Left side+116%−8%−37%−3%
Centre+81%−19%−32%−23%
Right side+120%−44%−45%−7%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdLivingston concededLeft side+116%−7%Centre+81%−23%Right side+120%−3%Open play+121%−17%Counter-attacks+186%−33%Set pieces+23%−3%Headers+24%−17%

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdCeltic concededLeft side−37%−44%Centre−32%−19%Right side−45%−8%Open play−46%−13%Counter-attacks−4%−64%Set pieces−22%−31%Headers−19%−19%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticLivingston

2.83xG0.96
0.95xG against1.19
70%Possession44%
20.9Shots9.2
7.8Shots against13.1
8.0Shots on target2.1
4.2Big chances1.1
44.7Touches in the opposition box16.5
668Passes323
85%Pass accuracy62%
9.7Corners3.6
79%Field tilt42%
74.1Final-third entries25.8
23.4Box entries7.6
10.2Passes per defensive action13.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level422.570.73
Ahead413.231.31
Behind61.940.16

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level520.861.08
Ahead81.570.76
Behind300.981.49

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.340.125–2
16–300.520.097–2
31–450.310.196–1
46–600.500.115–1
61–750.340.204–4
76–900.830.2416–4

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.151–2
16–300.080.171–3
31–450.140.141–4
46–600.160.252–4
61–750.210.174–3
76–900.280.301–9

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWHart 17Bain 1A. Johnston 14Ralston 4Carter-Vickers 11Lagerbielke 4Phillips 3Scales 16Nawrocki 2Taylor 18O'Riley 17Bernardo 2McGregor 18Iwata 2Turnbull 9Hatate 4Holm 2Yang 5Maeda 5M. Johnston 3Furuhashi 15Oh 3Palma 10Maeda 6Yang 24-3-3 in every start

Livingston

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTGeorge 15Hamilton 2de Lucas 9Nottingham 4Shinnie 3Obileye 11Devlin 14Sean Kelly 7Montano 2Brandon 9Mackay 3Nouble 2Holt 15Penrice 5Sangare 2Shinnie 8Pittman 2Sean Kelly 2Penrice 10Pittman 2Montano 2Pittman 8Sangare 4Kelly 4Nouble 7Anderson 6Shinnie 2Guthrie 7Nouble 7Anderson 23-4-2-1 in 5 of 17 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (5), 3-4-1-2 (5), 3-5-2 (3), 4-3-1-2 (2), 4-3-2-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
23 September 2023Livingston0–3CelticxG 0.94–2.61
1 February 2023Celtic3–0LivingstonxG 1.51–0.35
21 December 2022Celtic2–1LivingstonxG 1.96–0.28
30 October 2022Livingston0–3CelticxG 0.24–2.47
6 March 2022Livingston1–3CelticxG 0.85–3.63
30 October 2021Celtic0–0LivingstonxG 1.80–0.10

11 league meetings since 2020/21: Celtic won 7, Livingston won 1, and 3 were drawn. Goals 25–7 and xG 1.98–0.68 per game.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Turnbull9646700.740.37
Oh3530500.940.05
Palma10803560.490.43
Furuhashi151,225630.620.12

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Anderson8897300.410.04
Sean Kelly10818300.300.04
Kelly5458000.110.13
Penrice151,342020.020.21

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.