Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Celtic 3–1 Hibernian

Saturday 18 March 2023, 15:00 · Celtic Park · Round 29 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Steven McLean · Attendance 59,156

Celtic Jota 52' (pen), Oh 82', Haksabanovic 90+5'

Hibernian Campbell 39' (pen) · Youan sent off 24'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

CelticHibernian
Goals31
xG3.960.90
Non-penalty xG3.170.11
Expected Points2.870.08

Celtic 94%Draw 5%Hibernian 1%

Most likely score 4–1, 17%. Final score 3–1, 16%.

Hibernian goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+4%3%10%1%4%2%4%2%3%1%3%1%16%17%13%13%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

02460153045607590HTYouan (Hibernian), second yellow card 24'Turnbull on for Hatate, 13'Abada on for Taylor, Oh on for O'Riley, and Bernabei on for Maeda, 60'Haksabanovic on for Furuhashi, 83'Cadden on for Doyle-Hayes, 64'Hoppe on for Fish, 69'Henderson on for Miller, 79'Jota 52' (pen)Oh 82'Haksabanovic 90+5'Campbell 39' (pen)Celtic 3.96Hibernian 0.9002460153045607590HTYouan (Hibernian), second yellow card 24'Turnbull on for Hatate, 13'Abada on for Taylor, Oh on for O'Riley, and Bernabei on for Maeda, 60'Haksabanovic on for Furuhashi, 83'Cadden on for Doyle-Hayes, 64'Hoppe on for Fish, 69'Henderson on for Miller, 79'Jota 52' (pen)Oh 82'Haksabanovic 90+5'Campbell 39' (pen)3.960.90CelticHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

CelticHibernian

3.96 +1.57xG0.90 −0.40
3.17Non-penalty xG0.11
2.35 −0.15xG on target0.98 −0.19
35 +16Shots3 −12
9 +1.8Shots on target1 −4.0
3 −0.4Big chances1 −0.5
77 +36Touches in the opposition box5 −17
79% +7Possession21% −35
767 +98Passes204 −208
92% +5Pass accuracy65% −11
98% +17Field tilt2% −57
114 +29Final-third entries7 −38
44 +20Box entries3 −10
16.7 +7.3Passes per defensive action28.9 +17.6
15 +7.6Corners0 −5.8
7 −6Tackles13 −2
3 −5.2Interceptions15 +6.5
6 −8Clearances40 +20
0 −1.5Saves5 +3.1
6 −4Fouls7 −6
0 −2.6Offsides2 +0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Celtic

Furuhashi 20', 0.38 xGOh 90+4', 0.31 xGFuruhashi 81', 0.30 xGAbada 68', 0.12 xGStarfelt 78', 0.12 xGFuruhashi 30', 0.11 xGFuruhashi 31', 0.11 xGOh 63', 0.11 xGFuruhashi 65', 0.11 xGJota 23', 0.10 xGFuruhashi 41', 0.10 xGOh 61', 0.09 xGO'Riley 3', 0.08 xGMaeda 3', 0.08 xGO'Riley 22', 0.08 xGFuruhashi 29', 0.08 xGJota 48', 0.08 xGStarfelt 16', 0.07 xGJota 90+2', 0.07 xGJota 68', 0.06 xGJohnston 72', 0.05 xGTurnbull 56', 0.04 xGBernabei 70', 0.04 xGAbada 71', 0.04 xGFuruhashi 72', 0.04 xGTaylor 20', 0.03 xGJota 66', 0.03 xGTurnbull 25', 0.02 xGJota 45+8', 0.02 xGMcGregor 46', 0.02 xGO'Riley 58', 0.02 xGTaylor 42', 0.01 xGOh 81', 0.19 xG, goalHaksabanovic 90+5', 0.07 xG, goal13%0.42 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.42 xG, 0 goals62%1.97 xGCentral box: 15 shots, 1.97 xG, 1 goal11%0.36 xGWide in the box: 6 shots, 0.36 xG, 0 goals13%0.40 xGEdge of the box: 10 shots, 0.40 xG, 1 goal1%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Egan-Riley 14', 0.08 xGCabraja 45+6', 0.03 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGCentral box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals73%0.08 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.08 xG, 0 goals27%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

CelticHibernian

2.33 24 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.08 1 shot, 0 goals
0.11 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.73 9 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.03 1 shot, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
69 min (66%) · Celtic 2.48, Hibernian 0.87 xG
Celtic ahead
14 min (13%) · Celtic 0.46, Hibernian 0.00 xG
Hibernian ahead
21 min (20%) · Celtic 1.02, Hibernian 0.03 xG

Line-ups

12204333424117838HartJohnstonCarter-VickersStarfeltTaylorO'RileyMcGregorHatateJotaFuruhashiMaedaGoal60'60'13'83'60'Celtic 4-3-3Ange Postecoglou12254316261483223MarshallMillerFishHanlonCabrajaStevensonEgan-RileyJeggoDoyle-HayesCampbellYouanYellow cardYellow cardGoalYellow cardYellow cardSent off, second yellow79'69'64'Hibernian 5-3-2Lee Johnson

Celtic substitutes

  • 13' Turnbull for Hatate · 2 assists
  • 60' Bernabei for Maeda
  • 60' Oh for O'Riley · goal 82', yellow card 82'
  • 60' Abada for Taylor
  • 60' Kobayashi
  • 83' Haksabanovic for Furuhashi · goal 90+5'

Hibernian substitutes

  • 64' Cadden for Doyle-Hayes
  • 69' Hoppe for Fish
  • 79' Henderson for Miller

Players

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HartGK900.000.0000.0100
JohnstonRB900.050.1720.1761
Carter-VickersCB900.000.0910.35112
StarfeltCB900.190.2030.1685
TaylorLB600.040.1910.2891
O'RileyCM600.170.2230.0441
McGregorCM900.020.1110.0702
HatateCM130.000.0100.0200
JotaRW9011.161.0460.92181
FuruhashiST831.210.0210.0900
MaedaLW600.080.1230.1580
TurnbullMF7720.060.335−0.0321
BernabeiDF300.040.0910.1441
Oh FW3010.700.0010.0900
AbadaFW300.160.2720.2261
KobayashiDF300.000.000––0
HaksabanovicMF710.070.0300.0420

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarshallGK900.000.0000.0232
MillerRWB790.000.0210.0131
FishCB690.000.0000.01114
Hanlon CB900.000.0000.0129
Cabraja CB900.030.0000.01012
StevensonLWB900.000.0100.0338
Egan-RileyCM900.080.0000.00012
JeggoCM900.000.0100.04511
Doyle-HayesCM640.000.000−0.0106
Campbell ST9010.790.000−0.0300
Youan ST240.000.0100.0000
CaddenDF260.000.0100.0322
HoppeFW210.000.0000.0001
HendersonMF110.000.0000.0110

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Cabraja and Hanlon: 3 passesJeggo and Youan: 3 passesMarshall and Cabraja: 4 passesMiller and Fish: 4 passesFish and Hanlon: 4 passesMiller and Egan-Riley: 5 passesMarshall and Fish: 6 passesMarshall: 9 completed passesMiller: 7 completed passesCabraja: 6 completed passesFish: 9 completed passesHanlon: 7 completed passesStevenson: 5 completed passesJeggo: 8 completed passesDoyle-Hayes: 3 completed passesEgan-Riley: 3 completed passesYouan: 1 completed passesCampbell: 3 completed passes12325416148262332MarshallMillerCabrajaFishHanlonStevensonJeggoDoyle-HayesEgan-RileyYouanCampbellStarters until 24' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Celtic

FromToPasses
Carter-VickersJohnston28
JohnstonJota24
Carter-VickersStarfelt23
TaylorMaeda20
StarfeltCarter-Vickers20

Hibernian

FromToPasses
MarshallMiller10
FishMarshall6
MillerEgan-Riley6
MillerFish5
StevensonCabraja4

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Celtic

0−2.50−3.53−4.94−1.82−2.81−4.24+0.22−2.34−2.47−0.85−0.12−2.55+1.411+3.02−2.60−2.92−0.71−2.42−3.72−1.23+1.21−1.02−0.41−1.51−0.40−0.60−0.92+1.04+3.00−6.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 28 matches

Hibernian

5+0.521+14.630+17.819+11.55−1.44−1.612+5.88+3.75−1.57−1.21−4.63−1.92−1.11−5.03−4.35+1.22−2.60−2.60−4.83−1.74+1.80−1.80−0.80−1.90−2.50−0.80−0.70−0.80−0.60−0.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 28 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Celtic

0.010.040.020.030.030.010.070.090.050.030.100.140.080.170.080.120.040.080.100.240.190.270.120.160.45LessMore

Hibernian

0.010.010.010.010.020.01−0.010.01−0.01−0.020.020.020.03LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.25AttackCeltic2.37 → 2.40Hibernian1.25 → 1.22Defence (lower is better)Celtic0.64 → 0.64Hibernian1.17 → 1.21

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Celtic
Title96%97%+1
Hibernian
Top six97%97%0
Rangers
Title4%3%−1

From the forecast before the match (18 March 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

CelticHibernian
Expected goals2.650.58
Win81%6%
Expected Points2.560.30
Clean sheet56%7%

Celtic 81%Draw 13%Hibernian 6%

Most likely score 2–0, 14%. Both sides score 41%.

Hibernian goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+4%2%6%2%8%2%7%2%8%5%1%4%2%3%2%10%14%12%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 March 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowCeltic winDrawHibernian win
Celtic
Title96%97%91%87%
Hibernian
Top six97%97%99%>99%
Rangers
Title4%3%9%13%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Celtic

  1. W3–18 MarHearts (H)xG 2.08–0.62
  2. W5–15 MarSt. Mirren (A)xG 2.48–0.79
  3. W4–018 FebAberdeen (H)xG 1.50–0.27
  4. W4–15 FebSt. Johnstone (A)xG 2.02–0.26
  5. W3–01 FebLivingston (H)xG 1.51–0.35
  6. W2–029 JanDundee United (A)xG 2.91–0.33

Hibernian

  1. L1–48 MarRangers (H)xG 0.48–4.02
  2. W4–14 MarLivingston (A)xG 1.36–0.43
  3. W2–018 FebKilmarnock (H)xG 2.94–0.82
  4. W1–04 FebSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.64–0.36
  5. D1–131 JanRoss County (A)xG 1.03–0.69
  6. W6–028 JanAberdeen (H)xG 2.60–0.52

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticHibernian
Position1st4th
Played2828
Won, drawn, lost26–⁠1–⁠112–⁠4–⁠12
Points79 (2.82 per game)40 (1.43 per game)
Expected Points per game2.441.47
Goals90–⁠2044–⁠43
xG per game2.39–⁠0.621.30–⁠1.21
Home: points, xG per game3.00, 2.37–⁠0.511.71, 1.46–⁠1.23
Away: points, xG per game2.64, 2.41–⁠0.721.14, 1.13–⁠1.20
ManagerAnge Postecoglou (66)Lee Johnson (28)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.25AttackCeltic2.37, 1stHibernian1.25, 4thDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.64, 1stHibernian1.17, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarCeltic attack: 2.37Hibernian attack: 1.252.371.25HibernianCelticDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarCeltic defence: 0.64Hibernian defence: 1.171.170.64

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+120%−63%−2%−19%
Counter-attacks+51%−84%+64%+33%
Set pieces+31%−54%+12%−14%
Penalties−25%+13%−43%+51%
Headers+57%−46%+1%−25%
Left side+66%−53%+8%−30%
Centre+130%−62%−10%−10%
Right side+66%−69%+23%−9%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdHibernian concededLeft side+66%−9%Centre+130%−10%Right side+66%−30%Open play+120%−19%Counter-attacks+51%+33%Set pieces+31%−14%Headers+57%−25%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdCeltic concededLeft side+8%−69%Centre−10%−62%Right side+23%−53%Open play−2%−63%Counter-attacks+64%−84%Set pieces+12%−54%Headers+1%−46%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticHibernian

2.39xG1.30
0.62xG against1.21
72%Possession56%
18.5Shots15.2
6.3Shots against11.1
7.2Shots on target5.0
3.4Big chances1.5
41.0Touches in the opposition box22.4
669Passes412
87%Pass accuracy76%
7.4Corners5.8
81%Field tilt59%
84.9Final-third entries44.9
24.5Box entries12.5
9.4Passes per defensive action11.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level282.290.60
Ahead562.460.64
Behind62.220.49

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level331.081.21
Ahead251.591.16
Behind321.281.26

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.350.1117–3
16–300.280.068–1
31–450.460.1317–4
46–600.400.1416–7
61–750.250.109–2
76–900.650.0723–3

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.155–10
16–300.110.175–5
31–450.260.239–6
46–600.280.247–9
61–750.210.159–6
76–900.260.279–7

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWHart 28Ralston 10Johnston 8Juranovic 8Carter-Vickers 25Welsh 4Starfelt 16Jenz 10Kobayashi 1Taylor 20Bernabéi 7Juranovic 1O'Riley 23Mooy 12McGregor 21Haksabanovic 1Hatate 21Turnbull 6Abada 10Jota 8Maeda 5Furuhashi 23Giakoumakis 4Oh 1Maeda 13Jota 11Haksabanovic 34-3-3 in 26 of 28 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (26), 4-2-3-1 (2)

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMarshall 28Cadden 21Porteous 4Fish 1Bushiri 13Porteous 12Fish 7Hanlon 24Cabraja 13Stevenson 10Kukharevych 3Kenneh 13Campbell 8Porteous 4Newell 15Jeggo 6Boyle 6Cadden 5Henderson 3Campbell 11Newell 6Cabraja 3Youan 14McGeady 4Newell 3Youan 7Kukharevych 6Nisbet 54-2-3-1 in 13 of 28 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (13), 4-1-4-1 (6), 3-5-2 (4), 4-4-2 (3), 4-3-3 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
28 December 2022Hibernian0–4CelticxG 0.55–2.61
15 October 2022Celtic6–1HibernianxG 2.74–0.44
27 February 2022Hibernian0–0CelticxG 0.13–0.94
17 January 2022Celtic2–0HibernianxG 2.94–0.57
27 October 2021Hibernian1–3CelticxG 1.50–2.86
15 May 2021Hibernian0–0CelticxG 0.35–2.10

9 league meetings since 2020/21: Celtic won 5, Hibernian won 0, and 4 were drawn. Goals 21–5 and xG 2.11–0.83 per game.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Giakoumakis4685610.870.09
Abada101,2251040.530.41
Forrest5480420.570.27
Furuhashi231,7022020.790.05

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nisbet7581810.590.02
Kukharevych10797410.390.12
Boyle10936510.330.13
Youan221,904660.240.18

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.