Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Motherwell 3–1 Livingston

Saturday 30 December 2023, 15:00 · Fir Park · Round 21 · Half-time 3–1 · Referee Chris Graham · Attendance 4,410

Motherwell Spittal 14', Bair 19', 35'

Livingston Pittman 23'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

MotherwellLivingston
Goals31
xG1.480.94
Expected Points1.790.92

Motherwell 50%Draw 30%Livingston 21%

Most likely score 1–1, 17%. Final score 3–1, 5%.

Livingston goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+6%7%3%7%2%10%6%1%4%5%2%1%12%17%13%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTMugabi on for Blaney, 46'Slattery on for Shaw, 57'Paton on for Biereth, 90+4'Brandon on for Nouble, 58'Sangare on for Montano, 77'Shinnie on for Holt, 78'Spittal 14'Bair 19'Bair 35'Pittman 23'Motherwell 1.48Livingston 0.9400.511.520153045607590HTMugabi on for Blaney, 46'Slattery on for Shaw, 57'Paton on for Biereth, 90+4'Brandon on for Nouble, 58'Sangare on for Montano, 77'Shinnie on for Holt, 78'Spittal 14'Bair 19'Bair 35'Pittman 23'1.480.94MotherwellLivingston

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

MotherwellLivingston

1.48 +0.40xG0.94 +0.03
2.21 +1.07xG on target0.89 +0.21
8 −2.5Shots10 +1.1
4 +0.4Shots on target1 −1.1
4 +2.2Big chances3 +2.0
22 +3Touches in the opposition box15 −1
46% +1Possession54% +11
270 −81Passes333 +14
47% −19Pass accuracy54% −7
44% −1Field tilt56% +14
16 −15Final-third entries23 −3
10 +0.5Box entries7 −0.4
23.2 +8Passes per defensive action13.7 0
4 −0.3Corners3 −0.6
7 −10Tackles8 −9
1 −7.1Interceptions7 −0.9
16 −7Clearances23 0
0 −2.5Saves1 −2.0
12 0Fouls14 +1
4 +3.0Offsides1 −0.7

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Motherwell

Biereth 4', 0.46 xGBair 1', 0.12 xGBair 13', 0.04 xGSpittal 50', 0.03 xGSpencer 17', 0.02 xGBair 35', 0.31 xG, goalSpittal 14', 0.27 xG, goalBair 19', 0.24 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals73%1.08 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 1.08 xG, 2 goals22%0.33 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.33 xG, 1 goal5%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Livingston

Anderson 50', 0.13 xGDevlin 60', 0.13 xGAnderson 41', 0.08 xGObileye 72', 0.08 xGShinnie 90+1', 0.08 xGBrandon 64', 0.03 xGMontano 32', 0.02 xGMontano 52', 0.02 xGPenrice 47', 0.01 xGPittman 23', 0.37 xG, goal27%0.26 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.26 xG, 0 goals47%0.45 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.45 xG, 1 goal8%0.08 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.08 xG, 0 goals16%0.15 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

MotherwellLivingston

1.15 6 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.65 7 shots, 1 goal
0.31 1 shot, 1 goalCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.02 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.29 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
14 min (15%) · Motherwell 0.88, Livingston 0.00 xG
Motherwell ahead
80 min (85%) · Motherwell 0.59, Livingston 0.94 xG

Line-ups

121620221773241814KellyO'DonnellMcGinnBlaneySpencerZdravkovskiSpittalGentBierethShawBairYellow cardGoalYellow cardGoalGoal46'90+4'57'Motherwell 3-4-2-1Stuart Kettlewell1216538182991928GeorgeNottinghamObileyeDevlinMontanoPittmanHoltPenriceAndersonNoubleGuthrieYellow cardGoalYellow cardYellow card77'78'58'Livingston 3-4-1-2David Martindale

Motherwell substitutes

  • 46' Mugabi for Blaney · yellow card 71'
  • 57' Slattery for Shaw · yellow card 84'
  • 90+4' Paton for Biereth

Livingston substitutes

  • 58' Brandon for Nouble
  • 77' Sangare for Montano
  • 78' Shinnie for Holt

Players

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KellyGK900.000.0000.0120
O'DonnellCB900.000.0000.0114
McGinnCB900.000.0200.0661
BlaneyCB460.000.0100.0421
Spencer RWB900.020.091−0.1234
ZdravkovskiCM900.000.0100.0343
SpittalCM90110.290.3730.0732
GentLWB900.000.2910.2142
Biereth AM9010.460.1110.0510
ShawAM570.000.0300.0503
BairST90210.710.382−0.0122
Mugabi DF440.000.0000.0004
Slattery MF330.000.000−0.0101
PatonMF00.000.000––0

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GeorgeGK900.000.0200.12101
NottinghamCB900.000.0200.0545
ObileyeCB900.080.0100.04410
Devlin CB900.130.0510.1463
MontanoRWB7710.040.5920.2034
PittmanCM9010.370.012−0.0103
Holt CM780.000.010−0.0115
PenriceLWB900.010.1810.1266
Anderson AM900.210.0010.1700
NoubleST580.000.010−0.0202
GuthrieST900.000.0900.0820
BrandonMF320.030.0000.0210
SangareMF130.000.0000.0100
ShinnieFW120.080.0000.0101

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Motherwell

McGinn and O'Donnell: 3 passesO'Donnell and Bair: 3 passesSpencer and Biereth: 3 passesZdravkovski and Spittal: 3 passesZdravkovski and Biereth: 3 passesSpittal and Bair: 3 passesBlaney and Spittal: 4 passesSpencer and Spittal: 4 passesSpittal and Shaw: 4 passesSpencer and Bair: 5 passesSpittal and Biereth: 5 passesBiereth and Shaw: 5 passesO'Donnell and Spencer: 9 passesKelly: 7 completed passesBlaney: 7 completed passesMcGinn: 11 completed passesO'Donnell: 11 completed passesSpencer: 13 completed passesGent: 3 completed passesZdravkovski: 10 completed passesSpittal: 14 completed passesBiereth: 10 completed passesShaw: 8 completed passesBair: 4 completed passes120162223177241814KellyBlaneyMcGinnO'DonnellSpencerGentZdravkovskiSpittalBierethShawBairStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Livingston

George and Pittman: 3 passesGeorge and Penrice: 3 passesObileye and Pittman: 3 passesNottingham and Guthrie: 3 passesPittman and Holt: 3 passesHolt and Guthrie: 3 passesHolt and Nouble: 3 passesPenrice and Guthrie: 3 passesGeorge and Nottingham: 4 passesGeorge and Devlin: 4 passesGeorge and Guthrie: 4 passesObileye and Nottingham: 4 passesObileye and Holt: 4 passesNottingham and Holt: 4 passesMontano and Pittman: 4 passesGeorge and Obileye: 5 passesNottingham and Montano: 5 passesNottingham and Pittman: 5 passesDevlin and Holt: 5 passesObileye and Devlin: 6 passesDevlin and Penrice: 8 passesHolt and Penrice: 15 passesGeorge: 13 completed passesObileye: 16 completed passesNottingham: 14 completed passesDevlin: 16 completed passesMontano: 7 completed passesPittman: 13 completed passesHolt: 27 completed passesPenrice: 16 completed passesAnderson: 1 completed passesGuthrie: 5 completed passesNouble: 3 completed passes1621538182992819GeorgeObileyeNottinghamDevlinMontanoPittmanHoltPenriceAndersonGuthrieNoubleStarters until 58' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Motherwell

FromToPasses
O'DonnellSpencer7
SpittalBlaney4
O'DonnellSpittal4
BierethSpittal4
SpencerBair4

Livingston

FromToPasses
HoltPenrice14
PenriceDevlin10
HoltNottingham7
NottinghamGeorge6
GeorgeGuthrie6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Motherwell

9+4.34−3.63−4.74−2.03−4.26−1.05−2.34−4.16−0.44−1.46+0.43−0.81−4.32−5.23−2.63−1.22−1.21−2.60−4.13+0.82−0.22+0.81−0.52−0.62+0.91+0.50−0.60−0.60−0.96−10.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 19 matches

Livingston

14−0.75−1.85−0.83−3.04−3.67+2.86−1.89+1.76+0.81−2.54−1.76−0.35+0.50−1.930.06+0.81−2.12−0.22+1.31−1.41−2.40−0.71+0.71+0.30−0.31+0.41−5.13−4.32−4.60−4.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 19 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Motherwell

0.010.010.010.020.040.020.010.010.020.020.060.02−0.010.030.040.01−0.01−0.010.020.07−0.02−0.110.070.10LessMore

Livingston

0.010.010.020.010.050.010.010.030.010.030.040.040.02−0.01−0.010.030.080.02−0.02−0.010.190.180.15LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.26AttackMotherwell1.05 → 1.08Livingston0.96 → 0.96Defence (lower is better)Motherwell1.44 → 1.42Livingston1.37 → 1.39

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Motherwell
Top six5%7%+2
11th21%18%−3
Bottom16%9%−7
Livingston
Top six1%<1%−1
11th23%22%−1
Bottom46%55%+9
Ross County
11th21%22%+1
Bottom17%16%−1
St. Johnstone
Top six5%5%0
11th22%23%+1
Bottom16%14%−2

From the forecast before the match (30 December 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

MotherwellLivingston
Expected goals1.370.98
Win45%26%
Expected Points1.641.08
Clean sheet37%26%

Motherwell 45%Draw 29%Livingston 26%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 47%.

Livingston goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+9%5%2%6%2%9%9%4%1%4%4%2%1%1%10%12%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 30 December 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowMotherwell winDrawLivingston win
Motherwell
Top six5%7%3%2%
11th21%18%23%22%
Bottom16%9%18%27%
Livingston
Top six1%<1%1%1%
11th23%22%23%24%
Bottom46%55%46%30%
Ross County
11th21%22%21%20%
Bottom17%16%15%20%
St. Johnstone
Top six5%5%6%6%
11th22%23%21%20%
Bottom16%14%16%17%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Motherwell

  1. L0–224 DecRangers (H)xG 0.34–1.37
  2. D0–016 DecSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.00–1.25
  3. D1–19 DecSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.21–1.33
  4. L0–35 DecRoss County (A)xG 1.18–1.43
  5. D3–32 DecDundee FC (H)xG 0.89–1.59
  6. D1–125 NovCeltic (A)xG 0.48–3.25

Livingston

  1. D0–027 DecSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.93–0.25
  2. L0–223 DecCeltic (A)xG 0.00–3.66
  3. L1–220 DecAberdeen (A)xG 1.53–1.00
  4. D0–016 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 1.14–0.88
  5. L0–19 DecHibernian (H)xG 1.34–0.22
  6. L0–125 NovSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.59–0.81

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

MotherwellLivingston
Position11th12th
Played1919
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠7–⁠92–⁠6–⁠11
Points16 (0.84 per game)12 (0.63 per game)
Expected Points per game1.031.25
Goals20–⁠3110–⁠27
xG per game1.08–⁠1.590.91–⁠1.27
Home: points, xG per game0.90, 1.21–⁠1.470.78, 1.05–⁠1.12
Away: points, xG per game0.78, 0.95–⁠1.720.50, 0.79–⁠1.40
ManagerStuart Kettlewell (33)David Martindale (118)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.26AttackMotherwell1.05, 8thLivingston0.96, 11thDefence (lower is better)Motherwell1.44, 11thLivingston1.37, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecMotherwell attack: 1.05Livingston attack: 0.961.050.96LivingstonMotherwellDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecMotherwell defence: 1.44Livingston defence: 1.371.441.37

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

MotherwellLivingston
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−15%+19%−48%−9%
Counter-attacks−46%−2%−7%−39%
Set pieces−27%+7%−24%+12%
Penalties−9%+52%+22%−9%
Headers−17%+39%−25%−8%
Left side−19%+45%−38%+2%
Centre−5%+6%−34%−8%
Right side−52%−2%−48%−8%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdLivingston concededLeft side−19%−8%Centre−5%−8%Right side−52%+2%Open play−15%−9%Counter-attacks−46%−39%Set pieces−27%+12%Headers−17%−8%

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdMotherwell concededLeft side−38%−2%Centre−34%+6%Right side−48%+45%Open play−48%+19%Counter-attacks−7%−2%Set pieces−24%+7%Headers−25%+39%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

MotherwellLivingston

1.08xG0.91
1.59xG against1.27
45%Possession43%
10.5Shots8.9
14.2Shots against13.1
3.6Shots on target2.1
1.8Big chances1.0
18.7Touches in the opposition box16.4
351Passes319
66%Pass accuracy61%
4.3Corners3.6
45%Field tilt42%
31.3Final-third entries26.0
9.5Box entries7.4
15.2Passes per defensive action13.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level470.821.57
Ahead70.412.41
Behind361.551.45

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level540.831.17
Ahead71.570.76
Behind290.911.57

xG by period

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.050.131–3
16–300.110.241–8
31–450.150.221–2
46–600.090.361–5
61–750.270.294–7
76–900.410.3612–6

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.201–2
16–300.080.171–3
31–450.120.141–4
46–600.150.302–6
61–750.190.164–3
76–900.270.311–9

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Motherwell

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWKelly 19Blaney 10McGinn 9O'Donnell 3Mugabi 16Butcher 3Casey 16O'Donnell 14Spencer 4McGinn 1Paton 12Slattery 8Wilkinson 2Spittal 9Miller 5Spencer 1Spencer 10Gent 3Souaré 2Slattery 8Spittal 3Miller 3Biereth 6Bair 5Wilkinson 3Bair 7Spittal 5Biereth 33-4-3 in 6 of 19 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (6), 3-5-2 (4), 3-1-4-2 (3), 3-5-1-1 (2), 5-3-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

Livingston

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTGeorge 16Hamilton 3de Lucas 10Nottingham 5Penrice 3Obileye 13Devlin 15Sean Kelly 7Parkes 2Brandon 10Nouble 3Mackay 3Holt 12Sangare 2Shinnie 11Pittman 4Penrice 4Penrice 10Holt 5Shinnie 3Pittman 9Sangare 3Nouble 2Nouble 13Guthrie 8Anderson 10Kelly 3Shinnie 23-4-1-2 in 6 of 19 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (6), 3-4-2-1 (6), 3-5-2 (3), 4-3-1-2 (2), 4-3-2-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
7 October 2023Livingston2–0MotherwellxG 2.59–0.06
24 May 2023Livingston1–1MotherwellxG 0.70–0.47
8 April 2023Motherwell3–0LivingstonxG 1.59–0.84
2 January 2023Livingston1–1MotherwellxG 2.40–1.82
20 August 2022Motherwell1–0LivingstonxG 1.43–0.27
9 April 2022Livingston2–2MotherwellxG 1.21–0.90

11 league meetings since 2020/21: Motherwell won 6, Livingston won 1, and 4 were drawn. Goals 19–11 and xG 1.20–1.21 per game.

Key players

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Biereth9849620.370.20
Spittal191,710240.170.22
Bair12950210.240.05
Wilkinson7648310.160.12

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Anderson101,052300.360.05
Sean Kelly10818300.300.04
Kelly5499000.100.12
Penrice171,518020.030.19

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.