Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Livingston 0–1 Hibernian

Saturday 9 December 2023, 15:00 · Tony Macaroni Arena · Round 17 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Grant Irvine · Attendance 3,463

Hibernian Boyle 28'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

LivingstonHibernian
Goals01
xG1.340.22
Expected Points2.290.43

Livingston 67%Draw 28%Hibernian 5%

Most likely score 1–0, 29%. Final score 0–1, 4%.

Hibernian goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+20%4%7%20%5%8%2%2%29%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTAnderson on for Brandon, 56'Stephen Kelly on for Shinnie and Parkes on for Obileye, 73'Sangare on for Guthrie, 80'Jeggo on for Levitt, 70'Campbell on for Whittaker, 78'Doidge on for Vente, 87'Boyle 28'Livingston 1.34Hibernian 0.2200.511.50153045607590HTAnderson on for Brandon, 56'Stephen Kelly on for Shinnie and Parkes on for Obileye, 73'Sangare on for Guthrie, 80'Jeggo on for Levitt, 70'Campbell on for Whittaker, 78'Doidge on for Vente, 87'Boyle 28'1.340.22LivingstonHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

LivingstonHibernian

1.34 +0.46xG0.22 −0.96
0.58 −0.12xG on target0.77 −0.49
14 +5.2Shots4 −7.0
3 +1.0Shots on target2 −1.9
2 +1.1Big chances0 −2.0
24 +9Touches in the opposition box11 −12
43% −1Possession57% +6
306 −19Passes432 +16
70% +7Pass accuracy80% +3
62% +21Field tilt38% −7
31 +6Final-third entries20 −15
10 +2.6Box entries8 −3.4
17.6 +4Passes per defensive action16.9 +1
6 +2.2Corners0 −4.7
13 −3Tackles5 −9
4 −4.5Interceptions7 −0.5
6 −19Clearances34 +11
1 −2.0Saves2 −1.1
11 −2.4Fouls13 +3.5
5 +3.7Offsides4 +2.4

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Livingston

Anderson 62', 0.24 xGAnderson 67', 0.24 xGObileye 22', 0.16 xGPittman 3', 0.13 xGGuthrie 62', 0.12 xGStephen Kelly 77', 0.10 xGPittman 61', 0.08 xGSean Kelly 61', 0.07 xGSean Kelly 15', 0.05 xGDevlin 57', 0.04 xGObileye 9', 0.03 xGBrandon 42', 0.03 xGGuthrie 67', 0.03 xGAnderson 79', 0.03 xG6%0.08 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.08 xG, 0 goals72%0.96 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.96 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals22%0.30 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.30 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Vente 44', 0.09 xGHanlon 37', 0.03 xGTavares 30', 0.02 xGBoyle 28', 0.08 xG, goal14%0.03 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGCentral box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals86%0.19 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.19 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

LivingstonHibernian

0.71 8 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.19 3 shots, 1 goal
0.63 6 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.03 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
28 min (30%) · Livingston 0.37, Hibernian 0.08 xG
Hibernian ahead
65 min (70%) · Livingston 0.97, Hibernian 0.14 xG

Line-ups

121651218242982228GeorgeNottinghamObileyeDevlinBrandonHoltSean KellyPenricePittmanShinnieGuthrieYellow cardYellow cardYellow card73'56'73'80'Livingston 3-4-2-1David Martindale1495421761129109MarshallWhittakerFishHanlonObitaYouanLevittNewellTavaresBoyleVenteYellow cardGoal78'70'87'Hibernian 4-4-2Nick Montgomery

Livingston substitutes

  • 56' Anderson for Brandon
  • 73' Parkes for Obileye
  • 73' Stephen Kelly for Shinnie
  • 80' Sangare for Guthrie

Hibernian substitutes

  • 70' Jeggo for Levitt
  • 78' Campbell for Whittaker
  • 87' Doidge for Vente

Players

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GeorgeGK900.000.0100.1090
NottinghamCB900.000.0500.1021
Obileye CB730.200.0410.0502
Devlin CB900.040.0700.0962
Brandon RWB560.030.0200.0563
HoltCM900.000.011−0.0124
Sean KellyCM900.120.0200.0431
PenriceLWB900.000.4740.0833
PittmanAM900.210.1610.0713
ShinnieAM730.000.090−0.0802
GuthrieST800.150.0310.1101
AndersonFW340.500.0000.1100
ParkesDF170.000.0000.0230
Stephen KellyMF170.100.0000.0101
SangareMF100.000.0000.0000

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarshallGK900.000.0000.0110
WhittakerRB780.000.0000.0112
FishCB900.000.0000.04212
HanlonCB900.030.0000.05720
ObitaLB900.000.0200.0674
YouanRM900.000.0300.0332
Levitt CM700.000.0100.0122
NewellCM900.000.0100.0223
TavaresLM900.020.1710.0461
BoyleST9010.080.072−0.0700
VenteST870.090.1100.0735
JeggoMF200.000.0100.0010
CampbellMF120.000.0000.0013
DoidgeFW30.000.0100.0110

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Livingston

Obileye and Sean Kelly: 4 passesDevlin and Sean Kelly: 4 passesDevlin and Guthrie: 4 passesPenrice and Pittman: 4 passesHolt and Pittman: 4 passesPittman and Guthrie: 4 passesShinnie and Guthrie: 4 passesGeorge and Devlin: 5 passesObileye and Nottingham: 5 passesDevlin and Penrice: 5 passesBrandon and Shinnie: 5 passesPenrice and Guthrie: 5 passesHolt and Sean Kelly: 5 passesSean Kelly and Shinnie: 5 passesGeorge and Obileye: 6 passesGeorge and Nottingham: 6 passesGeorge and Guthrie: 7 passesPenrice and Shinnie: 7 passesBrandon and Holt: 10 passesNottingham and Brandon: 11 passesGeorge: 13 completed passesObileye: 10 completed passesNottingham: 15 completed passesDevlin: 17 completed passesBrandon: 18 completed passesPenrice: 15 completed passesHolt: 18 completed passesSean Kelly: 15 completed passesPittman: 13 completed passesShinnie: 13 completed passesGuthrie: 10 completed passes162151229182482228GeorgeObileyeNottinghamDevlinBrandonPenriceHoltSean KellyPittmanShinnieGuthrieStarters until 56' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Hibernian

Whittaker and Youan: 4 passesFish and Youan: 4 passesFish and Levitt: 4 passesLevitt and Vente: 4 passesFish and Newell: 5 passesHanlon and Youan: 5 passesYouan and Levitt: 5 passesHanlon and Tavares: 6 passesObita and Vente: 6 passesNewell and Levitt: 6 passesLevitt and Tavares: 6 passesWhittaker and Newell: 7 passesMarshall and Fish: 8 passesFish and Obita: 8 passesHanlon and Levitt: 8 passesLevitt and Boyle: 8 passesWhittaker and Levitt: 9 passesObita and Levitt: 9 passesObita and Newell: 11 passesHanlon and Obita: 18 passesMarshall and Hanlon: 20 passesObita and Tavares: 21 passesWhittaker and Fish: 23 passesFish and Hanlon: 25 passesMarshall: 22 completed passesWhittaker: 27 completed passesFish: 42 completed passesHanlon: 45 completed passesObita: 40 completed passesYouan: 11 completed passesNewell: 23 completed passesLevitt: 30 completed passesTavares: 17 completed passesBoyle: 8 completed passesVente: 11 completed passes1495421711629109MarshallWhittakerFishHanlonObitaYouanNewellLevittTavaresBoyleVenteStarters until 70' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Livingston

FromToPasses
GeorgeGuthrie8
NottinghamGeorge7
HoltBrandon6
BrandonNottingham6
ObileyeGeorge6

Hibernian

FromToPasses
MarshallHanlon21
ObitaTavares16
HanlonFish16
WhittakerFish12
FishWhittaker11

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Livingston

6−0.61−6.70−7.41−5.37+0.64−4.45+0.73−5.17−0.19+2.12−4.04−0.13−2.62−4.54−0.64−0.42+0.34+1.12−2.64+1.24+1.51+0.42−0.63+0.12+1.30−0.40−0.91+0.81+0.44−11.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 14 matches

Hibernian

4−1.511+3.824+6.43−4.93−2.17−0.46−0.62−3.76−1.73−3.45−2.66+2.13+0.32−4.19+3.83−3.42−0.91−1.10−2.90−3.02+0.30−1.32+1.41−0.51−1.10−0.60−0.20−0.21+0.70−0.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 16 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Livingston

0.030.030.010.040.010.010.020.010.050.020.030.060.050.06−0.040.04−0.010.020.060.050.20LessMore

Hibernian

0.010.010.010.010.020.020.010.010.020.010.030.010.010.02−0.01−0.020.01−0.01−0.02−0.060.040.020.050.06LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackLivingston0.96 → 0.97Hibernian1.19 → 1.17Defence (lower is better)Livingston1.44 → 1.41Hibernian1.32 → 1.33

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Livingston
Top six5%2%−3
11th22%22%0
Bottom37%47%+10
Hibernian
Top six73%82%+9
11th2%1%−1
Bottom1%<1%−1
St. Johnstone
Top six7%7%0
11th23%25%+2
Bottom27%24%−3
Motherwell
Top six12%11%−1
11th17%18%+1
Bottom15%12%−3

From the forecast before the match (9 December 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

LivingstonHibernian
Expected goals1.191.19
Win35%36%
Expected Points1.351.36
Clean sheet30%30%

Livingston 35%Draw 29%Hibernian 36%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 49%.

Hibernian goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+7%3%8%3%7%8%5%2%3%3%2%10%10%10%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 9 December 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowLivingston winDrawHibernian win
Livingston
Top six5%8%4%2%
11th22%21%24%22%
Bottom37%28%38%47%
Hibernian
Top six73%65%72%82%
11th2%3%2%1%
Bottom1%2%1%<1%
St. Johnstone
Top six7%8%6%7%
11th23%21%23%25%
Bottom27%30%26%24%
Motherwell
Top six12%13%13%11%
11th17%17%17%18%
Bottom15%17%15%12%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Livingston

  1. L0–125 NovSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.59–0.81
  2. L0–212 NovRangers (H)xG 0.13–2.68
  3. L0–15 NovDundee FC (A)xG 1.49–0.67
  4. L0–11 NovHearts (A)xG 0.21–1.91
  5. L0–228 OctDundee FC (H)xG 0.14–2.02
  6. L1–321 OctKilmarnock (A)xG 1.13–1.21

Hibernian

  1. L1–46 DecCeltic (A)xG 1.50–4.10
  2. W2–03 DecAberdeen (H)xG 1.73–3.86
  3. W2–125 NovDundee FC (A)xG 0.84–1.42
  4. W1–011 NovKilmarnock (H)xG 0.41–0.46
  5. D2–28 NovSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.89–1.60
  6. D2–231 OctRoss County (H)xG 0.50–0.52

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

LivingstonHibernian
Position12th5th
Played1416
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠4–⁠85–⁠6–⁠5
Points10 (0.71 per game)21 (1.31 per game)
Expected Points per game1.151.16
Goals9–⁠2223–⁠25
xG per game0.88–⁠1.291.18–⁠1.51
Home: points, xG per game0.83, 1.00–⁠1.461.50, 1.35–⁠1.34
Away: points, xG per game0.62, 0.80–⁠1.171.12, 1.00–⁠1.68
ManagerDavid Martindale (113)Nick Montgomery (12)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackLivingston0.96, 12thHibernian1.19, 4thDefence (lower is better)Livingston1.44, 8thHibernian1.32, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecLivingston attack: 0.96Hibernian attack: 1.191.190.96HibernianLivingstonDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecLivingston defence: 1.44Hibernian defence: 1.321.441.32

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

LivingstonHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−52%−13%−8%+13%
Counter-attacks+15%−43%−57%−19%
Set pieces−35%+6%average−6%
Penalties+18%+18%−66%+38%
Headers−15%−8%−7%−17%
Left side−43%+5%−8%−2%
Centre−42%−20%−12%−6%
Right side−42%−4%−7%+41%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdHibernian concededLeft side−43%+41%Centre−42%−6%Right side−42%−2%Open play−52%+13%Counter-attacks+15%−19%Set pieces−35%−6%Headers−15%−17%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdLivingston concededLeft side−8%−4%Centre−12%−20%Right side−7%+5%Open play−8%−13%Counter-attacks−57%−43%Set piecesaverage+6%Headers−7%−8%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

LivingstonHibernian

0.88xG1.18
1.29xG against1.51
44%Possession51%
8.8Shots11.0
14.1Shots against15.2
2.0Shots on target3.9
0.9Big chances2.0
15.4Touches in the opposition box22.7
325Passes416
62%Pass accuracy76%
3.8Corners4.7
41%Field tilt45%
25.4Final-third entries34.9
7.4Box entries11.4
13.7Passes per defensive action16.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level510.731.15
Ahead81.690.82
Behind300.921.67

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.121.23
Ahead281.091.67
Behind231.371.80

xG by period

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.161–2
16–300.040.190–2
31–450.150.151–3
46–600.170.292–4
61–750.190.174–2
76–900.250.331–9

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.192–3
16–300.240.162–3
31–450.170.243–2
46–600.200.243–4
61–750.210.299–6
76–900.270.404–7

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Livingston

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTGeorge 12Hamilton 2de Lucas 9Penrice 3Montano 2Devlin 11Nottingham 1Obileye 8Sean Kelly 7Brandon 7Mackay 3Welch-Hayes 2Shinnie 8Sangare 2Holt 7Pittman 4Penrice 4Holt 5Penrice 5Shinnie 3Pittman 5Sangare 3Stephen Kelly 2Nouble 12Guthrie 4Anderson 8Stephen Kelly 3Sangare 13-4-1-2 in 5 of 14 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (5), 3-5-2 (3), 4-3-1-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (2), 4-3-2-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMarshall 15Wollacott 1Miller 11Whittaker 2Fish 1Fish 15Bushiri 11Hanlon 5Stevenson 1Obita 8Stevenson 7Levitt 1Boyle 5Youan 4Campbell 4Jeggo 10Levitt 6Doyle-Hayes 1Newell 15Youan 6Tavares 6Boyle 3Boyle 5Doidge 5Youan 1Vente 13Le Fondre 4Campbell 34-4-2 in 11 of 16 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (11), 4-3-3 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
26 August 2023Hibernian2–3LivingstonxG 0.81–1.68
4 March 2023Livingston1–4HibernianxG 0.43–1.36
24 December 2022Hibernian4–0LivingstonxG 2.06–2.06
13 August 2022Livingston2–1HibernianxG 1.45–1.86
30 April 2022Livingston1–0HibernianxG 1.32–1.12
29 January 2022Hibernian2–3LivingstonxG 1.32–1.88

12 league meetings since 2020/21: Livingston won 6, Hibernian won 5, and 1 was a draw. Goals 17–22 and xG 1.34–1.57 per game.

Key players

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Sean Kelly8682300.350.05
Anderson8800300.260.04
Nouble141,244010.130.05
Penrice121,072010.030.14

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Doidge5478320.510.05
Le Fondre4506310.410.02
Youan111,107230.230.16
Vente13932320.230.09

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.