Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Hibernian 2–0 Kilmarnock

Saturday 16 January 2021, 15:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 24 · Half-time 0–0

Hibernian Power 51' (og), Gogic 80'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianKilmarnock
Goals20
xG0.680.64
Expected Points1.331.24

Hibernian 30%Draw 44%Kilmarnock 27%

Most likely score 0–0, 22%. Final score 2–0, 5%.

Kilmarnock goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+4%4%5%4%1%22%18%20%20%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.750153045607590HTDoidge on for Irvine, 73'Cadden on for Boyle, 83'Mallan on for Nisbet and Gullan on for Murphy, 90'Kabamba on for Whitehall and Burke on for Tshibola, 60'Dabo on for McGowan, 80'Power 51' (og)Gogic 80'Hibernian 0.68Kilmarnock 0.6400.250.50.750153045607590HTDoidge on for Irvine, 73'Cadden on for Boyle, 83'Mallan on for Nisbet and Gullan on for Murphy, 90'Kabamba on for Whitehall and Burke on for Tshibola, 60'Dabo on for McGowan, 80'Power 51' (og)Gogic 80'0.680.64HibernianKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianKilmarnock

0.68 −0.82xG0.64 −0.38
1.82 +0.28xG on target0.00 −1.06
6 −6Shots7 −3
5 +0.9Shots on target0 −3.1
1 −0.9Big chances1 0.0
22 +2Touches in the opposition box12 −6
48% −2Possession52% +6
377 −18Passes402 +37
64% −8Pass accuracy69% −1
49% +2Field tilt51% +3
32 −8Final-third entries33 −5
12 +1.4Box entries7 −2.2
9.9 −4Passes per defensive action11.7 −3
4 −1.7Corners9 +4.1
17 +3Tackles9 −4
14 +4.5Interceptions10 −1.1
30 +11Clearances11 −6
0 −2.8Saves4 +1.8
18 +6Fouls12 0
4 +2.0Offsides3 +0.7

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Boyle 76', 0.41 xGMallan 90+3', 0.07 xGGogic 48', 0.06 xGMcGinn 38', 0.05 xGMcGinn 2', 0.04 xGGogic 80', 0.05 xG, goal59%0.41 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.41 xG, 0 goals23%0.16 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.16 xG, 1 goal17%0.12 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Kabamba 70', 0.41 xGTshibola 35', 0.06 xGWhitehall 53', 0.05 xGHaunstrup 36', 0.04 xGKiltie 36', 0.04 xGBurke 86', 0.03 xGBurke 90+3', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals22%0.14 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals64%0.41 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.41 xG, 0 goals11%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals3%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianKilmarnock

0.45 2 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.64 7 shots, 0 goals
0.07 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.16 3 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
51 min (55%) · Hibernian 0.15, Kilmarnock 0.13 xG
Hibernian ahead
42 min (45%) · Hibernian 0.53, Kilmarnock 0.51 xG

Line-ups

3365425132010361815MaceyMcGinnPorteousHanlonDoigGogicHallbergBoyleIrvineMurphyNisbetGoal83'73'90'90'Hibernian 4-2-3-1Jack Ross232417321196271012RogersMcGowanDikamonaFindlayHaunstrupMulumbuPinnockPowerTshibolaKiltieWhitehallOwn goalYellow card80'60'60'Kilmarnock 4-1-4-1Alex Dyer

Hibernian substitutes

  • 73' Doidge for Irvine · 1 assist
  • 83' Cadden for Boyle
  • 90' Mallan for Nisbet
  • 90' Gullan for Murphy

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 60' Burke for Tshibola
  • 60' Kabamba for Whitehall
  • 80' Dabo for McGowan

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MaceyGK900.000.0000.0321
McGinnRB900.090.0100.0549
PorteousCB900.000.0700.1286
HanlonCB900.000.0000.05513
DoigLB900.000.1610.1929
GogicDM9010.110.0400.0308
HallbergDM900.000.2030.0532
BoyleRW830.410.0200.0221
IrvineAM730.000.0100.0012
MurphyLW900.000.0200.0455
NisbetST900.000.0300.0415
DoidgeFW1710.000.081−0.0101
CaddenDF70.000.0000.0100
MallanMF00.070.1200.2120
GullanFW00.000.0000.0001

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RogersGK900.000.0000.0220
McGowanRB800.000.0610.1142
DikamonaCB900.000.0000.0335
FindlayCB900.000.0100.10104
HaunstrupLB900.040.0610.1627
MulumbuDM900.000.0200.0556
PinnockRM900.000.010−0.0400
Power CM900.000.2120.1164
TshibolaCM600.060.011−0.0210
KiltieLM900.040.021−0.0501
WhitehallST600.050.000−0.0201
BurkeMF300.060.010−0.0110
KabambaFW300.410.0200.0100
DaboMF100.000.010−0.0400

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Hanlon and Gogic: 4 passesGogic and Murphy: 4 passesHallberg and Boyle: 4 passesMcGinn and Gogic: 5 passesPorteous and Irvine: 5 passesDoig and Gogic: 5 passesHallberg and Irvine: 5 passesPorteous and Boyle: 6 passesMurphy and Nisbet: 6 passesMcGinn and Boyle: 7 passesMcGinn and Porteous: 9 passesGogic and Hallberg: 9 passesMacey and Hanlon: 10 passesPorteous and Gogic: 10 passesPorteous and Hallberg: 10 passesMacey and Porteous: 11 passesHanlon and Doig: 11 passesDoig and Murphy: 11 passesPorteous and Hanlon: 14 passesHanlon and Hallberg: 14 passesHallberg and Murphy: 14 passesDoig and Hallberg: 15 passesMacey: 19 completed passesMcGinn: 18 completed passesPorteous: 43 completed passesHanlon: 31 completed passesDoig: 24 completed passesGogic: 22 completed passesHallberg: 41 completed passesBoyle: 10 completed passesIrvine: 11 completed passesMurphy: 18 completed passesNisbet: 8 completed passes3365425132010361815MaceyMcGinnPorteousHanlonDoigGogicHallbergBoyleIrvineMurphyNisbetStarters until 73' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Kilmarnock

Findlay and Power: 3 passesFindlay and Kiltie: 3 passesMcGowan and Findlay: 4 passesMcGowan and Pinnock: 4 passesFindlay and Haunstrup: 4 passesPinnock and Tshibola: 4 passesDikamona and Mulumbu: 5 passesDikamona and Power: 5 passesFindlay and Tshibola: 5 passesHaunstrup and Power: 5 passesMulumbu and Tshibola: 5 passesPinnock and Power: 5 passesMcGowan and Tshibola: 6 passesFindlay and Mulumbu: 6 passesHaunstrup and Mulumbu: 6 passesPower and Kiltie: 6 passesMcGowan and Mulumbu: 7 passesMcGowan and Power: 7 passesHaunstrup and Kiltie: 8 passesMulumbu and Power: 10 passesHaunstrup and Tshibola: 11 passesPower and Tshibola: 14 passesRogers: 3 completed passesMcGowan: 19 completed passesDikamona: 12 completed passesFindlay: 12 completed passesHaunstrup: 22 completed passesMulumbu: 26 completed passesPinnock: 8 completed passesPower: 28 completed passesTshibola: 22 completed passesKiltie: 9 completed passesWhitehall: 3 completed passes232417321196271012RogersMcGowanDikamonaFindlayHaunstrupMulumbuPinnockPowerTshibolaKiltieWhitehallStarters until 60' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
HallbergMurphy8
DoigMurphy8
HanlonPorteous8
DoigHallberg8
HallbergGogic8

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
HaunstrupFindlay11
MulumbuPower10
HaunstrupPinnock9
HaunstrupKiltie8
PowerFindlay7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

11+6.37+2.018+4.913+6.57+1.38+1.56−2.47+0.47−0.311+5.37+1.43−1.812+6.14−1.34+0.36+2.94+2.23−0.17+2.71−0.70−1.31+0.22+0.84+2.22+1.40−0.64+2.91+0.61+0.32−5.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 23 matches

Kilmarnock

0−3.39+3.59−3.76−1.03−3.33−3.83−4.15−3.410+2.010+6.27+1.57+3.04−0.65−0.35+1.97+3.56+3.54+0.85+1.13+1.00−1.91−0.73+1.81−0.80−0.90−0.21+0.20−0.50−0.61−5.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 22 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.010.010.010.020.010.030.010.020.030.020.020.070.040.020.06−0.020.040.040.190.18LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.020.010.010.010.010.020.020.020.040.020.010.040.010.030.04−0.01−0.020.07−0.04−0.040.010.11LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.18AttackHibernian1.27 → 1.25Kilmarnock0.97 → 0.95Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.10 → 1.08Kilmarnock1.20 → 1.18

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six29%21%−8
11th3%5%+2
Bottom1%1%0
St. Mirren
Top six38%41%+3
11th3%3%0
Bottom1%<1%−1
Dundee United
Top six33%34%+1

From the forecast before the match (16 January 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianKilmarnock
Expected goals1.350.93
Win46%25%
Expected Points1.661.05
Clean sheet39%26%

Hibernian 46%Draw 29%Kilmarnock 25%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 46%.

Kilmarnock goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+9%4%1%6%2%9%9%4%1%4%4%2%1%1%11%13%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 16 January 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawKilmarnock win
Kilmarnock
Top six29%21%29%43%
11th3%5%3%1%
Bottom1%1%<1%<1%
St. Mirren
Top six38%41%36%34%
11th3%3%3%3%
Bottom1%<1%1%1%
Dundee United
Top six33%34%34%28%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. D1–111 JanCeltic (A)xG 1.83–0.97
  2. L0–32 JanLivingston (H)xG 0.49–1.18
  3. L0–230 DecRoss County (H)xG 1.42–0.69
  4. L0–126 DecRangers (A)xG 0.95–2.08
  5. W1–023 DecSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.86–0.85
  6. D1–119 DecDundee United (H)xG 2.12–1.43

Kilmarnock

  1. W2–09 JanHamilton Academical (H)xG 1.50–0.43
  2. D1–12 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.97–0.52
  3. W2–030 DecMotherwell (A)xG 1.78–0.40
  4. L1–226 DecLivingston (H)xG 1.22–0.68
  5. L0–223 DecDundee United (A)xG 0.65–0.93
  6. L0–220 DecAberdeen (H)xG 0.36–1.03

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianKilmarnock
Position4th7th
Played2322
Won, drawn, lost10–⁠7–⁠67–⁠3–⁠12
Points37 (1.61 per game)24 (1.09 per game)
Expected Points per game1.541.19
Goals31–⁠2424–⁠26
xG per game1.50–⁠1.221.02–⁠1.32
Home: points, xG per game1.27, 1.33–⁠1.381.27, 1.14–⁠1.26
Away: points, xG per game1.92, 1.65–⁠1.070.91, 0.89–⁠1.39
ManagerJack Ross (23)Alex Dyer (22)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.18AttackHibernian1.27, 3rdKilmarnock0.97, 8thDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.10, 4thKilmarnock1.20, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanHibernian attack: 1.27Kilmarnock attack: 0.971.270.97KilmarnockHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanHibernian defence: 1.10Kilmarnock defence: 1.201.201.10

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+19%−14%−37%average
Counter-attacks−1%+38%−92%−76%
Set pieces+10%average+4%+19%
Penalties+16%+16%+22%−3%
Headers+39%−22%−18%−3%
Left side+7%−6%−19%+6%
Centre+14%−27%−29%average
Right side+27%+23%−31%+4%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+7%+4%Centre+14%averageRight side+27%+6%Open play+19%averageCounter-attacks−1%−76%Set pieces+10%+19%Headers+39%−3%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHibernian concededLeft side−19%+23%Centre−29%−27%Right side−31%−6%Open play−37%−14%Counter-attacks−92%+38%Set pieces+4%averageHeaders−18%−22%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianKilmarnock

1.50xG1.02
1.22xG against1.32
50%Possession46%
12.0Shots10.2
12.3Shots against14.0
4.1Shots on target3.1
1.9Big chances1.0
20.4Touches in the opposition box18.1
395Passes365
72%Pass accuracy70%
5.7Corners4.9
47%Field tilt48%
39.9Final-third entries37.7
10.6Box entries9.2
14.0Passes per defensive action14.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.681.13
Ahead311.621.38
Behind200.941.18

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.051.26
Ahead221.071.48
Behind260.941.29

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.280.154–4
16–300.150.176–2
31–450.220.286–6
46–600.180.214–3
61–750.340.165–1
76–900.320.266–8

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.173–4
16–300.160.234–6
31–450.190.155–2
46–600.200.175–4
61–750.200.264–3
76–900.150.343–7

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMarciano 20Barnes 2Macey 1P. McGinn 21Wright 1Boyle 1Porteous 23P. McGinn 1Hanlon 22Doig 10Stevenson 8Gogic 2Boyle 17Wright 2Newell 2Gogic 11Hallberg 7Mallan 3Newell 20Nisbet 1Magennis 1Murphy 6Horgan 4Doig 3Nisbet 20Boyle 3Wright 1Doidge 17Gogic 3Murphy 14-4-2 in 13 of 23 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (13), 3-5-2 (3), 4-5-1 (2), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWRogers 21Eastwood 1McGowan 9Millen 9Rossi 3Broadfoot 22Findlay 19Dikamona 3Waters 16Haunstrup 5Tshibola 1Power 17Kabamba 5Whitehall 2Dicker 13McKenzie 3Kiltie 2Tshibola 18Mulumbu 2Pinnock 1Burke 16Brophy 2McKenzie 1Kabamba 12Brophy 6Kiltie 3Kiltie 8McKenzie 7Pinnock 44-3-3 in 9 of 22 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (9), 4-4-2 (7), 4-2-3-1 (3), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 4-5-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
24 October 2020Kilmarnock0–1HibernianxG 0.97–1.50
1 August 2020Hibernian2–1KilmarnockxG 1.18–0.70

2 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 2, Kilmarnock won 0, and 0 were drawn. Goals 3–1 and xG 1.34–0.83 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nisbet211,8151120.530.09
Mallan4507100.220.31
Doidge171,611510.430.07
Boyle221,969540.260.10

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Burke181,539630.250.24
Brophy8637200.320.02
Pinnock6623030.050.27
Kabamba171,545500.270.02

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.