Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

St. Mirren 1–5 Celtic

Sunday 5 March 2023, 12:00 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 28 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee David Dickinson · Attendance 6,939

St. Mirren O'Hara 6' (pen) · Dunne sent off 38'

Celtic Jota 56', Johnston 61', Abada 70', O'Riley 72', Oh 81' (pen)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenCeltic
Goals15
xG0.792.48
Non-penalty xG0.001.69
Expected Points0.242.59

St. Mirren 2%Draw 17%Celtic 81%

Most likely score 1–2, 25%. Final score 1–5, 4%.

Celtic goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+4%7%6%3%1%2%16%11%4%1%25%21%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTDunne (St. Mirren), red card 38'R. Taylor on for Greive, 45'Shaughnessy on for Small and Watt on for Strain, 62'F. Taylor on for Kiltie, 74'Tanser on for Main, 75'Abada on for Maeda, 46'O'Riley on for Furuhashi and Oh on for Hatate, 66'Haksabanovic on for Jota, 71'Iwata on for Mooy, 74'O'Hara 6' (pen)Jota 56'Johnston 61'Abada 70'O'Riley 72'Oh 81' (pen)Celtic 2.48St. Mirren 0.7901230153045607590HTDunne (St. Mirren), red card 38'R. Taylor on for Greive, 45'Shaughnessy on for Small and Watt on for Strain, 62'F. Taylor on for Kiltie, 74'Tanser on for Main, 75'Abada on for Maeda, 46'O'Riley on for Furuhashi and Oh on for Hatate, 66'Haksabanovic on for Jota, 71'Iwata on for Mooy, 74'O'Hara 6' (pen)Jota 56'Johnston 61'Abada 70'O'Riley 72'Oh 81' (pen)2.480.79St. MirrenCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenCeltic

0.79 −0.32xG2.48 +0.08
0.00Non-penalty xG1.69
1.00 +0.02xG on target3.68 +1.21
1 −11Shots16 −3
1 −2.3Shots on target8 +0.7
1 −0.6Big chances4 +0.7
4 −17Touches in the opposition box47 +6
18% −21Possession82% +10
171 −109Passes785 +124
52% −10Pass accuracy90% +3
4% −37Field tilt96% +16
16 −16Final-third entries115 +31
2 −7.7Box entries28 +3.5
30.0 +13.4Passes per defensive action8.8 −0.5
0 −5.7Corners6 −1.5
15 0Tackles5 −9
8 −1.2Interceptions11 +3.0
39 +17Clearances6 −9
2 −0.2Saves0 −1.5
14 +1Fouls7 −4
0 −1.2Offsides0 −2.6

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

–0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals–0.00 xGCentral box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals–0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals–0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals–0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Abada 64', 0.27 xGJota 28', 0.16 xGJota 36', 0.15 xGHatate 23', 0.10 xGHaksabanovic 79', 0.07 xGOh 90+4', 0.07 xGHatate 45+3', 0.06 xGMcGregor 41', 0.04 xGHatate 35', 0.03 xGCarter-Vickers 45+4', 0.03 xGAbada 88', 0.02 xGO'Riley 72', 0.37 xG, goalAbada 70', 0.15 xG, goalJota 56', 0.08 xG, goalJohnston 61', 0.08 xG, goal9%0.16 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.16 xG, 2 goals55%0.94 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.94 xG, 1 goal22%0.37 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.37 xG, 1 goal12%0.20 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenCeltic

0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.44 10 shots, 3 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.25 5 shots, 1 goal
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
11 min (11%) · St. Mirren 0.79, Celtic 0.08 xG
St. Mirren ahead
54 min (55%) · St. Mirren 0.00, Celtic 0.64 xG
Celtic ahead
33 min (34%) · St. Mirren 0.00, Celtic 1.76 xG

Line-ups

12213182311176161021CarsonFraserGogicDunneStrainKiltieBaccusO'HaraSmallMainGreiveSent offYellow cardGoal62'74'62'75'45'St. Mirren 3-5-2Stephen Robinson12204313424117838HartJohnstonCarter-VickersStarfeltTaylorMooyMcGregorHatateJotaFuruhashiMaedaGoalGoal74'66'71'66'46'Celtic 4-3-3Ange Postecoglou

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 45' R. Taylor for Greive
  • 62' Shaughnessy for Small
  • 62' Watt for Strain
  • 74' F. Taylor for Kiltie
  • 75' Tanser for Main

Celtic substitutes

  • 46' Abada for Maeda · goal 70', 1 assist
  • 66' O'Riley for Furuhashi · goal 72'
  • 66' Oh for Hatate · goal 81' (pen)
  • 71' Haksabanovic for Jota
  • 74' Iwata for Mooy

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
CarsonGK900.000.0000.0121
FraserCB900.000.0000.03011
GogicCB900.000.0000.02210
Dunne CB380.000.0100.0324
Strain RWB620.000.0000.0237
KiltieCM740.000.0000.0112
BaccusCM900.000.0000.0009
O'HaraCM9010.790.000−0.0102
SmallLWB620.000.0000.0227
MainST750.000.0900.0831
GreiveST450.000.0000.0101
R. TaylorDF450.000.0000.0008
ShaughnessyDF280.000.0100.0002
WattFW280.000.0000.0111
F. TaylorMF160.000.0000.0002
TanserMF150.000.0000.0001

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HartGK900.000.0000.0220
JohnstonRB9010.080.1100.15123
Carter-VickersCB900.030.0400.20122
StarfeltCB900.000.0400.2086
TaylorLB900.000.1500.28191
MooyCM7420.000.393−0.0982
McGregorCM900.040.1610.1171
HatateCM660.190.113−0.0720
JotaRW7110.380.0510.13114
FuruhashiST660.000.010−0.0300
MaedaLW460.000.0100.0132
AbadaFW44110.450.4220.26141
O'RileyMF2410.370.2810.1830
OhFW2410.860.010−0.0300
HaksabanovicMF190.070.0700.1540
IwataMF160.000.031−0.0100

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Strain and Baccus: 3 passesGreive and Main: 3 passesSmall and Baccus: 4 passesBaccus and O'Hara: 4 passesSmall and O'Hara: 5 passesCarson: 2 completed passesGogic: 3 completed passesDunne: 4 completed passesFraser: 4 completed passesStrain: 3 completed passesSmall: 5 completed passesBaccus: 11 completed passesO'Hara: 8 completed passesKiltie: 2 completed passesGreive: 0 completed passesMain: 5 completed passes11318222316176112110CarsonGogicDunneFraserStrainSmallBaccusO'HaraKiltieGreiveMainStarters until 38' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Celtic

Johnston and Starfelt: 4 passesHatate and Jota: 4 passesMcGregor and Maeda: 4 passesTaylor and Maeda: 5 passesCarter-Vickers and Hatate: 6 passesTaylor and Mooy: 8 passesTaylor and Jota: 8 passesHatate and Maeda: 8 passesMcGregor and Jota: 8 passesHart and Starfelt: 10 passesHart and Carter-Vickers: 10 passesHatate and McGregor: 10 passesStarfelt and McGregor: 13 passesMooy and McGregor: 15 passesStarfelt and Hatate: 16 passesCarter-Vickers and McGregor: 18 passesJohnston and Carter-Vickers: 19 passesJohnston and Jota: 19 passesStarfelt and Carter-Vickers: 19 passesMooy and Jota: 19 passesJohnston and Mooy: 20 passesJohnston and McGregor: 21 passesStarfelt and Taylor: 23 passesTaylor and Hatate: 23 passesTaylor and McGregor: 29 passesHart: 15 completed passesJohnston: 49 completed passesStarfelt: 49 completed passesCarter-Vickers: 44 completed passesTaylor: 52 completed passesMooy: 32 completed passesHatate: 34 completed passesMcGregor: 61 completed passesJota: 23 completed passesFuruhashi: 0 completed passesMaeda: 8 completed passes12420313414217838HartJohnstonStarfeltCarter-VickersTaylorMooyHatateMcGregorJotaFuruhashiMaedaStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
BaccusO'Hara4
MainGreive3
O'HaraBaccus3
O'HaraSmall3
CarsonMain3

Celtic

FromToPasses
StarfeltTaylor38
McGregorTaylor26
StarfeltCarter-Vickers23
JohnstonCarter-Vickers23
TaylorHatate21

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

9+4.39+1.535+22.110+2.28+3.911+1.614+7.36+1.46−0.611+4.17+0.550.05+1.82−2.43−3.74−0.32−1.90−2.40−3.41−2.70−2.92+0.31+0.10−2.02−0.20−1.20−0.70−0.70−0.61+0.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 27 matches

Celtic

1−1.62−1.63−1.75−0.35+1.32−2.57+0.69+4.07+2.56+2.411+2.92−2.52−0.91−1.66+2.69+3.56+2.81−0.91−1.01−1.42−0.61−0.50−0.610.00−1.10−1.04−4.22−3.94−4.22−4.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 26 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.020.010.010.010.010.020.020.010.040.010.010.01−0.010.010.010.07LessMore

Celtic

0.010.010.010.010.030.030.050.010.020.090.030.060.030.120.100.090.04−0.010.120.050.01−0.160.140.130.120.170.17LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.25AttackSt. Mirren1.04 → 1.02Celtic2.32 → 2.36Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.25 → 1.30Celtic0.64 → 0.64

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six65%59%−6
Celtic
Title93%95%+2
Livingston
Top six54%56%+2
Aberdeen
Top six77%79%+2

From the forecast before the match (5 March 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenCeltic
Expected goals0.652.10
Win10%71%
Expected Points0.492.32
Clean sheet12%52%

St. Mirren 10%Draw 19%Celtic 71%

Most likely score 0–2, 14%. Both sides score 42%.

Celtic goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+7%10%5%2%1%4%9%9%6%3%1%1%3%3%2%1%13%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 5 March 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawCeltic win
St. Mirren
Top six65%87%73%59%
Celtic
Title93%86%90%95%
Livingston
Top six54%44%50%56%
Aberdeen
Top six77%68%73%79%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. D1–125 FebSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.59–0.39
  2. W1–018 FebRoss County (H)xG 2.34–0.63
  3. L1–215 FebMotherwell (A)xG 0.46–0.48
  4. L0–14 FebHibernian (H)xG 0.36–0.64
  5. W3–11 FebAberdeen (A)xG 2.21–0.94
  6. W1–028 JanMotherwell (H)xG 0.60–0.40

Celtic

  1. W4–018 FebAberdeen (H)xG 1.50–0.27
  2. W4–15 FebSt. Johnstone (A)xG 2.02–0.26
  3. W3–01 FebLivingston (H)xG 1.51–0.35
  4. W2–029 JanDundee United (A)xG 2.91–0.33
  5. W4–018 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.25–0.53
  6. W2–07 JanKilmarnock (H)xG 3.48–0.08

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenCeltic
Position6th1st
Played2726
Won, drawn, lost10–⁠7–⁠1024–⁠1–⁠1
Points37 (1.37 per game)73 (2.81 per game)
Expected Points per game1.232.43
Goals29–⁠3682–⁠18
xG per game1.11–⁠1.262.40–⁠0.61
Home: points, xG per game2.00, 1.20–⁠0.963.00, 2.39–⁠0.50
Away: points, xG per game0.69, 1.02–⁠1.592.62, 2.40–⁠0.72
ManagerStephen Robinson (20)Ange Postecoglou (64)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.25AttackSt. Mirren1.04, 7thCeltic2.32, 1stDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.25, 5thCeltic0.64, 1st

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarSt. Mirren attack: 1.04Celtic attack: 2.322.321.04CelticSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarSt. Mirren defence: 1.25Celtic defence: 0.641.250.64

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−20%−14%+125%−62%
Counter-attacks−14%−16%+62%−83%
Set pieces+3%−12%+35%−50%
Penalties−20%+79%−38%+3%
Headers+20%−4%+60%−47%
Left side−8%−2%+71%−55%
Centre−17%−17%+136%−60%
Right side−14%−21%+68%−67%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdCeltic concededLeft side−8%−67%Centre−17%−60%Right side−14%−55%Open play−20%−62%Counter-attacks−14%−83%Set pieces+3%−50%Headers+20%−47%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+71%−21%Centre+136%−17%Right side+68%−2%Open play+125%−14%Counter-attacks+62%−16%Set pieces+35%−12%Headers+60%−4%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenCeltic

1.11xG2.40
1.26xG against0.61
39%Possession72%
12.3Shots18.9
11.5Shots against6.5
3.3Shots on target7.3
1.6Big chances3.3
20.8Touches in the opposition box41.2
280Passes661
62%Pass accuracy87%
5.7Corners7.5
41%Field tilt80%
32.1Final-third entries83.7
9.7Box entries24.5
16.6Passes per defensive action9.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.041.17
Ahead221.391.23
Behind230.991.47

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level282.380.49
Ahead582.420.65
Behind42.140.83

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.174–5
16–300.130.172–5
31–450.220.256–6
46–600.200.207–6
61–750.190.192–6
76–900.290.288–8

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.370.0817–1
16–300.240.077–1
31–450.480.1417–4
46–600.410.1514–7
61–750.240.106–2
76–900.650.0721–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTCarson 27Strain 24Fraser 2Flynn 1Fraser 20Gallagher 19Gogic 9Shaughne… 6ShaughnessyDunne 25R. Taylor 2Tanser 14Tait 7O'Hara 4Baccus 22Kiltie 10Tanser 3Erhahon 20Flynn 2O'Hara 19Gogic 4Ayunga 16Greive 8Watt 3Main 25Brophy 15-3-2 in 23 of 27 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (23), 3-5-2 (4)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWHart 26Ralston 9Juranovic 8Johnston 7Carter-Vickers 23Welsh 4Starfelt 14Jenz 10Kobayashi 1Taylor 19Bernabei 6Juranovic 1O'Riley 22Mooy 10McGregor 19Haksabanovic 1Hatate 20Turnbull 6Abada 9Jota 7Maeda 5Furuhashi 21Giakoumakis 4Oh 1Maeda 11Jota 11Haksabanovic 34-3-3 in 24 of 26 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (24), 4-2-3-1 (2)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
18 January 2023Celtic4–0St. MirrenxG 2.25–0.53
18 September 2022St. Mirren2–0CelticxG 0.82–1.18
2 March 2022Celtic2–0St. MirrenxG 1.60–0.36
22 December 2021St. Mirren0–0CelticxG 0.29–1.68
21 August 2021Celtic6–0St. MirrenxG 4.93–0.23
10 February 2021St. Mirren0–4CelticxG 0.57–2.57

8 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 2, Celtic won 5, and 1 was a draw. Goals 5–19 and xG 0.62–2.25 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ayunga161,288320.420.04
Greive8738300.400.02
Main252,118600.240.08
O'Hara231,955400.170.09

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Giakoumakis4685610.870.09
Abada91,110930.540.41
Furuhashi211,5651910.820.03
Forrest5480420.570.27

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.